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Ukraine’s war and the non-Western world
A new poll provides more evidence that Western and non-Western countries just don’t agree on how best to respond to the war in Ukraine.
Most Americans and Europeans say their governments should help Ukraine repel Russian invaders. Many say Russia’s threat extends beyond Ukraine. People and leaders in non-Western countries mainly want the war to end as quickly as possible, even if Ukraine must surrender some of its land to Russia to bring peace.
That’s not necessarily the message you might take from a recent vote on this subject in the UN General Assembly. On Feb. 24, the invasion’s one-year anniversary, 141 countries voted to condemn the invasion and to demand that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally” withdraw from Ukraine. Thirty-two countries abstained. Just six – Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, Nicaragua, and Mali – voted with Russia against the motion.
But it’s one thing to denounce the invasion. It’s another to arm Ukraine and sanction Russia.
Among the 32 countries that abstained – a group led by China, India, South Africa, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and others – and even in states like Brazil and Turkey that voted with the majority, there is deep resistance to the Western approach to the war. The reasons vary by region and country, but their argument with the West can be grouped into three broad categories.
First, the US and Europe, they say, are prolonging this costly war at a time when world leaders must turn their attention and focus their nation’s resources on other urgent global threats.
As India’s President Narendra Modi said this week in his role as chair of this year’s G20 summit: “After years of progress, we are at risk today of moving back on the sustainable development goals. Many developing countries are struggling with unsustainable debts while trying to ensure food and energy security. They are also most affected by global warming caused by richer countries. This is why India's G20 presidency has tried to give a voice to the Global South.”
It’s noteworthy that Modi delivered these comments in English.
In other words, the longer the war in Ukraine continues, the longer world leaders will be distracted from other challenges and the fewer resources they’ll have left to meet them.
Second, what gives Europeans and Americans the right, some ask, to decide which wars are legitimate and who is guilty of imperialist behavior? The US says Russia launched an invasion under false pretenses, but memories of Americans hunting Iraq for weapons of mass destruction bolster charges of hypocrisy. Many Latin Americans remember that Cold War-era Western crusades against Russian Communism included support for brutal dictatorship in their countries. Many in Africa and the Middle East who live in states whose borders were drawn by Europeans reject European appeals to defend Ukraine against imperialism.
Third, many developing countries value the chance to buy Russian energy and food exports at bargain prices. Western refusal to buy Russian products has given many poorer states the chance to fuel their recovery in this way, and their governments are well aware that any bid to remove these products completely from markets would cut deeply into global supplies, driving world food and fuel prices to dangerous new highs. Many of these countries need post-COVID economic lifelines and continuing to do business with Russia, especially on newly favorable terms, can help.
Americans and Europeans can make counterarguments in all these areas, but leaders and poll respondents in non-Western countries continue to warn that Western governments can’t expect others to share the sacrifices they claim are needed to resolve Western problems.
Should Western governments worry? The US and Europe will continue to supply Ukraine and sanction Russia with or without help from others. But if Western leaders want to effectively isolate Russia, both economically and diplomatically, reluctance and resistance from non-Western countries will limit how much they can hope to accomplish and how quickly.
Ian Bremmer: The West is united on Russian energy, the rest of the world is not
With talk at this year’s Munich Security Conference from most of the world’s most powerful countries about decoupling from Russian energy, it can be easy to forget that most of the world’s population has other priorities.
“What we're seeing is that a majority of the world's economic strength and certainly military strength really wants to put Russia back in a box, but a majority of the world's population does not. And that is because of what's happened with the pandemic. It's what happened with climate change”, said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
Europe, he explains, can better afford to move away from Russian sources of energy than developing countries, who are increasingly feeling distant and fragmented from the West, and richer countries shouldn’t forget that.
Watch the full Global Stage Livestream conversation here: Is there a path ahead for peace in Ukraine?
Russia cutting Nord Stream 1 gas to undermine European leaders
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60:
Is Russia waging a gas war with Europe?
They certainly are. You have Nord Stream 1 back online after scheduled maintenance, and first was 40%, now 20% of normal volumes. Technical problem, that's what the Russians say. But of course, in reality it is because they know that the Europeans are moving to diversify away from Russian energy as fast as possible and the Russians are not letting them do it on their timeframe. Winter's coming and Russia's best opportunity to undermine European leaders and get a whole bunch of Europeans saying, "What are you doing? Why are you sanctioning the Russians, you're hurting us. We are the ones that are facing the economic pain as a consequence. We don't want you to." A bigger peace movement is if they make life impossible for the Europeans during winter this year. So, I mean, frankly, I'd be surprised if you have any Russian gas go into Germany, come winter this year. The Germans are aware of that possibility and they are very concerned about it. By the way, if the worse comes to worst you're talking about a 2a to 3% contraction of the EU economy. It's a big deal, but it's not a disaster. Next year will be easier for the Europeans.
Is the world prepared to combat the growing global monkeypox outbreak?
I wish we weren't talking about another major outbreak. We're talking about tens of thousands of cases already around the world, and we don't have enough vaccines, even though we do have vaccines for it. We don't have enough monitoring, even though we've just been through a global pandemic. The good news is the vaccine works. The good news is it's very rarely lethal, and it's not leading to huge numbers of hospitalization. So I'm not anywhere close to as worried about monkeypox as we have been about COVID. But still this is absolutely a serious disease and it is not one we are anywhere close to containing, hence the World Health Organization's statement over this week.
How is the UK race going to become the next prime minister?
Well, I mean, it's going in orderly fashion. No one is going to claim that it was rigged or that it's unfair or that you should stop the steal. No, one's saying that in the United Kingdom; no one said that in France during parliament elections. No one said that in Germany, when Scholz became chancellor. Only the United States among advanced industrial democracies; maybe we should learn something from that. But more importantly, we've got two serious contenders, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. Rishi kind of more the technocrat and Liz Truss more the populist. She certainly would not be the favorite in terms of EU-UK relations, though she does have more of the conservative base on her side. Look, it's going to be a closely run event. Could go either way from my perspective at this point. But what we do know is that Boris Johnson very soon will be no more.
- The tentacles of a global energy crisis - GZERO Media ›
- The EU's natural gas troubles won't end after ditching Russia ... ›
- The myth of feeling safe from the pandemic: former CDC chief Tom ... ›
- Should we worry about monkeypox? - GZERO Media ›
- Britain's next prime minister - GZERO Media ›
- How new UK PM Liz Truss will impact UK/EU relations - GZERO Media ›
- Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines? - GZERO Media ›
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- Nord Stream explosion mystery: We need proof, says Estonia's PM Kaja Kallas - GZERO Media ›
The stovetop.
The tentacles of a global energy crisis
The global energy market has been volatile for months, but things got particularly dicey this week after Russia slashed natural gas supplies to Europe via the undersea Nord Stream pipeline. Moscow cut gas supplies to Germany by a whopping 60%, to Slovakia by 30%, and to Italy by 15%.
Russia’s state energy company Gazprom says the move, which sent Benchmark European gas prices soaring 24% on Wednesday, was a result of “technical issues,” but no one’s buying that excuse. Curiously, the gas shortfall came just as the French, German, Italian and Romanian heads of state touched down in Kyiv for a showy solidarity tour led by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. (They went on to announce that they will support Ukraine’s EU candidacy.)
Simply put: the Germans are very jittery. In a desperate Twitter appeal, Deputy Chancellor Robert Habeck told Germans that the situation is “serious” and called on them to conserve energy wherever possible. Indeed, as Russia doubles down on its strategy of using energy exports as a weapon of war, there’s growing fear in Brussels that European states will be unable to find natural-gas alternatives to avoid a full-blown energy crisis next winter.
However, Europeans aren’t the only ones feeling the squeeze of a tight energy market. Australia, for its part, is also facing a massive pinch due to overlapping factors, including recent floods, planned maintenance at several plants, and global price pressures squeezing coal operators (around 75% of electricity Down Under is coal-powered). Coal prices have been soaring along with other commodities as the Ukraine war rages on, prompting the government of New South Wales to urge its 8 million residents to turn off the lights between 6-8pm.
Meanwhile, emerging market economies like Sri Lanka and Pakistan are also facing severe energy crises as a result of poor governance, reliance on shady Chinese loans, supply chain chaos, and the war in Ukraine. The combination of these factors continues to fuel sky-high inflation, rolling blackouts and … much misery.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
The Graphic Truth: Thirsty for Russian energy
Much of the world has long relied on Russian energy to power their economies. That makes it very hard for them to punish the Kremlin for invading Ukraine by ditching Russia's plentiful oil, natural gas, and coal in the near term. So, who's most dependent on Russian fossil fuels? We look at a select group of OECD economies.