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COP28: Why farmers need to be front and center in climate talks
Agriculture is the foundation of human civilization, the economic activity that makes every other endeavor possible. But historically, says International Fertilizer Association Director General Alzbeta Klein, the subject hasn't received attention in climate talks.
"It took us 23 climate conferences to start thinking about agriculture," she said during a GZERO Live event organized by the Sustainability Leaders Council, a partnership between Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, and Suntory. "The problem is that we don't know how to feed ourselves without a huge impact on the environment."
The good news is, leaders are catching on to the notion that a holistic approach is the only way forward.
Watch the full livestream conversation: The global water crisis and the path to a sustainable future
- Controversies at COP28 and the future of climate change ›
- COP28 climate talks complicated by UAE oil deals ›
- Hunger Pains: The growing global food crisis ›
- Who's to blame for sky-high food prices? ›
- Hunger Pains: The Growing Global Food Crisis - GZERO Media ›
- COP28’s challenge: growing problems, shrinking credibility ›
Water is food, so use solutions to conserve water, says expert Alzbeta Klein
"We often say water is life," says Alzbeta Klein, Director General of the International Fertilizer Association. "And I'd like to add to it: water is food." She spoke at a GZERO Live event organized by the Sustainability Leaders Council, a partnership between Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, and Suntory, exploring the emerging issue of water insecurity.
Some 90% of the world's freshwater is used to grow food, meaning that every single drop that can be saved through more efficient uses of water and fertilizer in farming represents one step closer to ensuring all human beings have safe, fresh water to drink.
Watch the full livestream conversation: The global water crisis and the path to a sustainable future
Use new data to fight climate change & other challenges: UN tech envoy
Artificial intelligence has brought with it new methods of both collecting and analyzing data. The UN’s special envoy on technology, Amandeep Singh Gill, highlights the importance of developing robust data sets to address critical issues facing the world, such as global food insecurity.
“We need new data sets on how farmers are adapting to changes induced by the shift in our climate landscape. So, bring those data sets together, run analytics on them, and be (more) smart about climate change resilient agriculture.
As the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030 deadline fast approaches, Gill also emphasizes the need for a global network of “digital champions” for the SDGs.
“I think that’s the key area: Data capacity and human capacity doing it together,”
The discussion was moderated by Nicholas Thompson of The Atlantic and was held by GZERO Media in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative.
Watch the full Global Stage conversation: Can data and AI save lives and make the world safer?
Podcast: UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, human rights, & the Security Council presidency
Listen: On August 1, the United States will take over the presidency of the United Nations security council.
The GZERO World Podcast heads to the Security Council chamber at the UN headquarters in New York City for a special conversation with US UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
The US has a few major agenda items they hope to tackle during the month of August, including global food security, human rights issues, and calling out Russia for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Thomas-Greenfield also hopes to use the session to address issues getting less attention in the media, like the Sudan war and security situation in Haiti.
But how effective can the Security Council be at dealing with the world’s most urgent crises when two US geopolitical adversaries, Russia and China, are permanent, veto-wielding members? Should Russia be removed from the council? And how difficult is it for the US to champion human rights around the world when the political environment at home is so divisive?
Ian Bremmer sits down with Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield in a wide ranging conversation about diplomacy, security, and the future of the United Nations.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published- Ian Explains: Why Russia has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council ›
- Hard Numbers: Russia to helm Security Council, Sonko seized, Stubborn EU inflation, Australia vs. climate change ›
- As Sudan war worsens, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says UN must help ›
- UN official: Security Council Is “dysfunctional” - but UN is not ›
- Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, Sudan & the power of diplomacy - GZERO Media ›
- Russia undermines everything the UN stands for, says Linda Thomas-Greenfield - GZERO Media ›
- Can the US be a global leader on human rights? - GZERO Media ›
Russia's exit from Black Sea grain deal will drive up food prices
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What are the consequences of Russia exiting the Black Sea grain deal?
Severe, no question about that. It is obvious that Russia intends to completely stop all Ukraine grain exports over the Black Sea anyhow, as far as they can. It's not only exiting the agreement, it's also sustained attacks against the grain export terminals in Ukraine, and also those very close to the border with Romania. Upward pressure on global food prices, no question about that, that's going to be the consequences, and Russia is responsible.
How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?
Well, it's a hard slog. These areas have been extensively fortified and mined by the Russians, and we should also be aware of the fact that the Ukrainian army and the Russian army today is a different army. There's a lot of mobilized people, they have training for just some months. So I think it is going to take some time. So give it a month, or somewhat more than that, and we can make a more accurate assessment of how far they can achieve.
- Hungry countries vs. Russia ›
- Russia kills Ukraine grain deal ›
- Is Ukraine picking up the pace? ›
- Ukraine’s counteroffensive: Prospects for success, unity, and peace ›
- Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Russia, Sudan & the power of diplomacy - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Why is Russia trying to starve the world? - GZERO Media ›
The flags of Ukraine and Russia surrounded by ears of grain and label with crossed-out inscription "Deal."
Hungry countries vs. Russia
Ukrainian and Western leaders aren’t the only ones criticizing Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey that allows Ukraine to ship grain across the Black Sea to the rest of the world. On Tuesday, a senior official in Kenya’s foreign ministry tweeted that Russia’s decision to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a “stab on the back” (sic) with rising global food prices, one that “disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought."
That’s not a good sign for a Russian government that’s worked hard in recent months to persuade developing countries that the Kremlin cares more about their well-being than Americans and Europeans do. Russia has insisted that Ukraine’s grain has gone mainly to rich countries, but Ukraine has provided Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen with 625,000 tons of emergency food supplies over the past year as part of the Black Sea agreement, according to the UN.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Russia’s Vladimir Putin wants to return to the deal, as Russia did after a brief suspension last November. More criticism from poorer countries might speed up that reversal.A Turkish cargo shop loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products leaves the Port of Odessa.
The limits of Russia’s grain weapon
Russia’s suspension of the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative creates uncertainty for Ukraine’s economy and for global food prices, though there are several reasons why the effect of this break will likely be more limited than worst-case scenarios suggest.
On Monday, the Kremlin said the deal was suspended, not canceled, which would allow Russia to return to the agreement – as it did last November after a previous halt. In the coming weeks, Russia will continue to haggle with the UN and Turkey, brokers of the original deal. In addition, Moscow’s concern for its image in developing countries leaves it no more likely to attack ships carrying grain to foreign ports than during last fall’s pause in the agreement.
Most importantly, Ukraine and Europe have made changes in recent months to prepare for another grain deal breakdown. Large volumes of Ukraine’s wheat and other products can now be rerouted for export overland into the EU without tariffs and then shipped on to other regions. Finally, the export of wheat and other grains will continue from Russia, easing pressures on global food prices.
All that said, this deal has still been a big deal. First struck last July, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has enabled more than 1,000 ships to transport 32.8 million tons of grain and other food products from Ukrainian ports to 45 countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa, according to the UN. Halting it, even temporarily, will raise hunger risks in poorer countries and add financial pressure on Ukraine, which now faces higher shipping and insurance costs, as well as risks of harassment from Russian ships in the Black Sea.
A vendor arranges onions for sale at a market in Lagos, Nigeria.
Why food prices remain high
Thanks to the war in Ukraine and the pandemic before it, food inflation remains sky-high throughout much of the world. With the Black Sea grain deal set to expire on March 18, we take a look at global food security in 2023 with Eurasia Group expert Peter Ceretti.
Is the food security crisis over?
Unfortunately, not yet. International prices have moderated for staple grains — like wheat, and corn — since early- to mid-2022, but they’ve stabilized at a high level.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, food prices had already been disrupted by COVID-19. The war led to a blockade of Ukraine’s ports, higher energy and shipping costs, and Western sanctions and self-sanctioning targeting Russia, all of which caused prices for wheat, corn, and other grains to spike.
As the world learned, Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower seeds and oils, and prior to the war, Ukraine used to ship most of its food exports through the Black Sea. Russia and Belarus are also major fertilizer exporters, especially to the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa.
Over time, Ukrainian producers adjusted, shipping more of their crops westward over land and by river. Then, in July 2022, Russia and Ukraine reached a deal brokered by Turkey and the UN to reopen some of Ukraine’s ports for food shipments, helping to restore Black Sea shipments to Turkey, Europe, the Levant, and North Africa, among other destinations.
This helped to relieve concerns over shortages. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle, and eventually a moderation in oil and gas prices, the improved outlook brought food prices down.
“Down” is a relative term though. Using the FAO’s Food Price Index as a benchmark, food prices are about 8% lower now than they were a year ago, but they’re also about 11% higher than they were in early 2021 and around 30% higher than in early 2020.
So availability is now less of a concern, but basic foodstuffs are still very expensive.
Why are food prices still so high?
Good old supply and demand are a part of the story. The USDA forecasts that global production will fall for rice and corn this year and that consumption will outstrip production for wheat, rice, and corn. There should be enough to go around in the aggregate, but this will mean that global stocks will fall compared to last year’s levels. A tight market keeps a floor on prices.
Inputs are another factor. Oil and gas prices are still relatively high, driving up prices for fuel used for farm equipment as well as for transportation and refrigeration. Natural gas is also used as a feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizers, and even though prices have come down in recent months, this year’s harvests could be affected by under-application in 2022.
Weather is a third consideration. We’ve had an exceptionally long “triple-dip” La Niña, which can lead to extreme weather events that are also becoming more frequent due to climate change. La Niña is expected to recede, but there’s a good chance that El Niño conditions will set in by late 2023, which could bring more disruptive weather.
What consumers pay for food does not correspond one-to-one to international price developments, either. Many food products are consumed in the country where they are produced. Most countries subsidize agriculture and enact some degree of protective trade policies. In wealthy countries, a large share of food spending goes to marketing and distribution, and only a small share of food prices — around 15% in the US — are determined by the actual cost of food. Finally, other factors like exchange rates and regional discrepancies in food costs can also distort the relationship between domestic and international food prices.
In practice, this means that the pass-through from changes in international prices to domestic food costs is partial and occurs with variable lags. There’s even some recent evidence to suggest that more of price rises on international markets is passed through to consumers than price falls. So even though international food prices are falling year on year, about 90% of countries are seeing consumer price inflation on food of 5% or more. In January, the median food inflation rate was about 14%.
What is the outlook for staple foods for the rest of 2023?
At present, the outlook is mixed. Barring any major, unexpected developments, I think prices are likely to continue to fall on a year-on-year basis through mid-2023, though there are some important uncertainties. Weather and the possible onset of El Niño later in the year is one factor.
Oil and gas prices are another consideration. My colleagues think that it’s likely oil and gas prices will rise again in the second half of 2023, as China’s economy gains steam, Europe recovers, and supply-side conditions remain tight — especially given Europe’s energy decoupling from Russia. This would help to drive food and fertilizer prices upward again.
What about the Black Sea Grain Initiative?
The continuation of the grain deal is a major wildcard. Our view is that the deal will be renewed. Russia has structural incentives not to let it lapse, as it nearly did last November. Among other things, Moscow is seeking to maintain ties with developing countries, which have been hit hardest by higher food costs and are disinterested both in the war and in Western sanctions. China, for instance, has purchased over 20% of the grains and oilseeds shipped through the grain deal and has sought to interject itself into diplomatic efforts to end the war. Turkey and Iran are also major beneficiaries of the deal.
On the other hand, killing the deal would bring the Kremlin closer to crippling the Ukrainian economy. About 11% of Ukrainian GDP came from agriculture prior to the war, and Putin aims to do long-term damage to Ukraine’s economic structure.
Are there any other factors to watch?
Rice is another watchpoint. Rice prices have been decoupled from other staple grains throughout the conflict, and they fell for much of last year. But international prices are now rising by around 17% year on year, and given the number of countries in Asia that depend on rice as a staple, this should be a point of concern. Most East, South, and Southeast Asian countries have support programs in place to shield the population from major rice price movements, and much of the rice that is consumed in the region is produced domestically. But a knee-jerk restriction on exports from a major rice exporting country, like India, has the potential to spike prices internationally.