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FILE PHOTO: Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk, who supports Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump, gestures as he speaks about voting during an America PAC Town Hall in Folsom, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 17, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Musk doles out millions, Turkey talks Typhoon jets, Kenya delays high-level impeachment, Boeing makes progress with strikers
1 million: Elon Musk said Sunday that his political action committee supporting the Trump campaign, America PAC, will give $1 million to one registered voter in Pennsylvania every day until the election in a lottery among petition signers. The petition merely affirms support for the First and Second Amendments but also allows the PAC to gather voter data. Musk has donated $75 million to the PAC so far.
40: Despite strained ties, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanked German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his efforts to push through a sale of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets when the two met on Saturday. He also expressed eagerness to increase trade with Berlin, which has the largest population of ethnic Turks in Europe, who make up an important expat voting bloc for Erdogan.
7: Kenya’s High Court on Friday suspended a resolution to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for at least seven days, meaning he will remain in office until at least Oct. 24. Parliament had already approved Gachagua’s replacement, Kithure Kindiki, but the court said it needs time to decide whether the impeachment was lawful.
33,000: Troubled aircraft manufacturer Boeing reached a tentative deal that will send some 33,000 striking workers back to the assembly line after a five-week strike. The deal must be ratified by rank-and-file union members, who will vote Wednesday. They are looking at a 35% pay increase over four years but will not get their much-desired pension plan back after losing it in 2014.FILE PHOTO: A Kenyan police officer stands guard during a joint operation with Haitian police, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti July 29, 2024.
Blinken heads to Haiti as Kenyan force faces time crunch
US Secretary of State Antony Blinkenvisited Haiti for the first time on Thursday, underscoring American support for the struggling Caribbean government and the Kenyan-led security mission meant to stabilize the country. Nairobi sent special police officers to Haiti in late June as part of a UN-approved mission to bolster Haiti’s law enforcement and military against well-armed and organized gangs. The Kenyans have made significant strides alongside the Haitian National Police in securing key landmarks in the capital, Port-au-Prince, but they’re running short of money and time — the mission’s mandate is set to expire on Oct. 2 and would need to be renewed — and ordinary Haitians still face daily violence from gangs.
The US is considering requesting that the UN turn the Kenyan-led operation into a formal peacekeeping operation, which could avoid the need for renewals. The Kenyan commander Godfrey Otunge says the gangs’ days are numbered, but the other countries that pledged to send troops to back up his officers have not followed through. Otunge has only 400 of the 2,500 men who are supposed to be under his command.
The ad hoc nature of the mission contributes to the sluggishness: The UN took nearly a year to approve the mandate, and then Kenya took another nine months to get boots on the ground. During that time, gangs ousted PM Ariel Henry and solidified control over more than 80% of Port-au-Prince. By the time the Kenyans arrived, they only had three months left in their mandate. Redesignating it as a formal PKO could ease some time constraints and provide a formal mechanism for other countries to fulfill their troop pledges. We’re watching how the debate unfolds.Pro-reform protesters participate in an anti-government demonstration over what organisers say are tax hikes, bad governance, constitutional violations, extra-judicial killings and cost of living, in Nairobi, Kenya, August 8, 2024.
Kenya set to reintroduce tax hikes. Will protests follow?
The Kenyan government is reintroducing the controversial tax plan that fueled young Kenyans’ protests earlier this summer. President William Ruto scrapped the $1.2 billion plan at the end of June after demonstrations turned deadly, but the government faced a funding shortfall as a result, downgrading its credit rating over concerns about Kenya’s ability to service its $78 billion public debt.
When he ditched the bill, Ruto vowed to address the concerns of young Kenyans, who have struggled to find jobs in an economy failing to keep up with population growth. They argued that rather than increase taxes, the government should crack down on corruption.
Disillusioned youth are increasingly inciting civil unrest across Africa, where by 2030, 42% of the world’s young people will reside. Youth-led protests were also seen in Uganda and Nigeria this summer, and last week, more than 400 young people gathered at the UN offices in Nairobi for the Africa Youth Forum 2024 where they expressed their discontent with leaders they feel are denying them political and economic opportunities.
We will be watching to see whether reintroducing the tax plan reignites protests in Kenya, and whether young people across Africa can turn their discontent into political change.
Ugandan police officers detain protestors during a rally against what the protesters say are rampant corruption and human rights abuses by the country's rulers in Kampala, Uganda July 23, 2024.
Kenyan-inspired protests spread across Africa
Kenyan President William Rutonominated four opposition ministers to his new “broad-based” cabinet on Wednesday to appease growing government dissatisfaction – a move that's already being labeled a corrupt bribe by protesters. Earlier this month, Ruto fired most of his cabinet after weeks of student-led protests against proposed tax hikes and government corruption led to 50 deaths and calls for his resignation.
Wednesday's move came after last week’s appointment of 11 ministers – six of whom had been in the previous cabinet – drawing concerns that Ruto’s pledges for radical change were just words and that he will continue to choose personal politics over national interests. Protesters have been urged to accept Ruto’s concessions and engage in constructive dialogue, but demonstrations continue as Ruto refuses to step down.
New Kenyan-inspired protests. These calls for change are now being echoed across the continent. In Uganda, youths inspired by their Kenyan counterparts have taken to the streets in anti-corruption protests – a move authoritarian President Yoweri Museveniwarned was “playing with fire.” Ugandan forces besieged the activists’ headquarters on Monday, and authorities arrested more than 40 people – including three opposition lawmakers – at banned protests the following day.
Hoping to mirror the successes of Kenyan protests, young Nigerians have also taken to social media to organize a demonstration on Aug. 1 against the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has called on youths not to join the “sinister” protests, as the government begs for more time to address economic hardships.
Members of the second contingent of Kenyan police greet each other after arriving in the Caribbean country as part of a peacekeeping mission, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti July 16, 2024.
Double duty: Kenya and Bangladesh try to balance domestic crises with Haiti aid
Haiti’s Prime Minister Garry Conillecalled for gangs to surrender their weapons and recognize the state’s authority late Wednesday, as a Kenyan-led police mission there enjoys some early success.
Some 200 officers arrived in late June and are trying to take back the capital from gangs that launched a series of highly coordinated attacks in February, ousting former Prime Minister Ariel Henry and seizing about 80% of the capital. The mission received another 200 Kenyan officers on Tuesday, and, within the coming months, the multinational force is expected to see recruits from other countries, including Bangladesh. But oddly enough, both Nairobi and Dhaka are facing severe challenges to law and order at home.
Kenya is entering its second month of deadly protests calling for the resignation of President William Ruto. But Ruto has doubled down, banning protests in Nairobi mere hours before a demonstration was planned for Thursday. Protests are likely to continue and will be met by a violent police response.
Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, at least 32 people have been killed in police clashes during nationwide, student-led protests this week. The young activists are demonstrating over quotas that reserve 30% of government jobs for relatives of veterans of Bangladesh’s 1971 War of Independence. Protesters announced they will force a nationwide shutdown in response to the police brutality in one of the most severe challenges yet to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has ruled for 20 years.
We’re watching for signs of whether the security mission’s main contributors feel they need to put their own houses in order before helping Haiti.
Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) leaves the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York after the second day of deliberations after an indictment for an alleged 16 counts of conspiracy on July 15, 2024, in New York City. Menendez is charged with using his political influence to benefit Egypt in exchange for compensation, a scheme orchestrated by his wife and by three business co-conspirators, Wael Hana, Jose Uribe and Fred Daibes who are charged with similar crimes relating to payments made to Menendez on Monday September 25, 2023 the Senator denied all allegations and that the $500,000 found in his house by agents is an old fashioned way of safeguarding money against emergencies.
Hard Numbers: Sen. Menendez found guilty, Protests turn deadly in Kenya, China’s readers scoop up Vance’s book, Rwanda’s early vote count in, Bangladeshi protests claim lives
16: Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey was found guilty on Tuesday of all 16 counts in his federal corruption trial, including bribery, acting as a foreign agent (a first for a US senator), and fraud. Prosecutors said “he put his power up for sale,” lending support in exchange for money, gold bars, and other bribes in a yearslong scheme. He faces decades in prison when he’s sentenced on Oct. 29.
1: One person was killed Tuesday in violent anti-government protests that resumed in Kenya less than a week after Kenyan President William Rutodismissed most of his cabinet to demonstrate his commitment to make radical changes to the demonstrators. The protests first broke out last month – 39 people were killed, and demonstrators breached the Parliament building – in response to a deeply unpopular finance bill that aimed to raise $2 billion in taxes to offset worsening economic crises. Ruto backed down from the tax, but protesters are still demanding that he resign.
10: After his selection as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, JD Vance’s memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” – which highlights difficulties faced by the white working class in America – sold out immediately in China, and online prices for used versions there increased tenfold. Since its release in 2016, the book has become one of China’s best-sellers, but Vance does not return this affection. In fact, he has called China America’s greatest threat.
99.15: Rwanda’s electoral commission reported that President Paul Kagame secured his fourth term in Monday’s election, with early reports showing him winning 99.15% of the vote. This is not a big surprise given that the election was deemed by many as neither free nor fair. Kagame has been in power for over 30 years, and he stands accused of cracking down on dissent and political opposition.
5: At least five people were killed on Tuesday in Bangladesh during ongoing violent protests calling for an end to public-sector job quotas that ensure 30% of government jobs are reserved for family members of Bangladesh War of Independence veterans. Clashes first broke out Monday at universities and have since spread nationwide, with tens of thousands taking to the streets to voice their anger over persistent high youth unemployment.
Kenya's President William Ruto speaks at a press conference where he announced spending cuts in government after protests againstKenya's proposed finance bill 2024/2025, in Nairobi, Kenya, July 5, 2024.
Kenyan president fires cabinet in bid to retain power
In the wake of mass protests over proposed tax increases that turned deadly last month, Kenyan President William Ruto fired the bulk of his cabinet on Thursday, signaling that he’s willing to make radical changes.
Protests broke out in June in response to a finance bill passed by parliament to raise over $2 billion in taxes. The demonstrators brought chaos to Nairobi, killing 39 people and breaching the nation’s parliament building. The violence forced Ruto to abandon the bill, and he’s been implementing a series of measures to reduce government spending. With his cabinet reshuffle — he sacked all but his deputy president and prime cabinet secretary — Ruto hopes to quell angry protests calling for his resignation by showing he’s listening and willing to be more flexible.
Ruto said he would “immediately engage in extensive consultations across different sectors and political formations, with the aim of setting up a broad-based government,” which could mean the possible inclusion of opposition parties in the new government.
What now? Cash-strapped Kenya will be forced to dig into other country’s pockets, widening their already worrisome foreign deficit amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis. And although protesters celebrated this as a victory, Kenyans have demonstrated that they are happy to take to the streets when they’re unhappy.
Eurasia Group analyst Imani Jaoko explains this may be enough to stop the protests, but one “can’t rule out the prospect that future missteps could galvanize the protesters ... who seem pleasantly surprised by their newfound power and are keen to build on it.”
Kenya’s president does a 180 after deadly protests
Kenyan President William Ruto on Wednesday caved to the demands of protesters and scrapped a controversial finance bill. The legislation, which would’ve raised taxes on a population already struggling with high living costs, sparked mass protests that led to a deadly police response this week.
“I will not sign the 2024 finance bill,” Ruto said Wednesday amid widespread outrage over the deaths. “The people have spoken.”
What’s next? The move will appease Western donors, older voters, and certain lobbying groups who backed the young protesters but also want to see calm restored, says Imani Jaoko, a Nairobi-based analyst for Eurasia Group.
But the young voters who spearheaded the demonstrations “are not going to relent,” adds Jaoko, because people have died, and they see this U-turn as coming too late.
Ruto initially pledged a strong response to the protests, which also called for his resignation. Though he’s done a 180, it actually “emboldens” the demonstrators, says Jaoko, who are now aiming not only for the finance bill but “the administration’s failures in whole.”
Still, older voters, among other groups, will probably push the young protesters to “take the ‘win,’” adds Jaoko, noting that it’s unlikely the calls for Ruto to resign will reach a level where he feels compelled to step aside.