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Hard Numbers: Kenyans march against femicide, Corruption costs Ukrainian defense, Germans protest far right, Evergrande tries to avoid liquidation (again), Say more than ‘Oui’ to Paris!
14: So far this year, 14 women have been murdered as a result of gender-based violence in Kenya, and thousands took to the streets in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, on Saturday in response. Nearly a third of Kenyan women face physical violence at some point in their lives, while 13% are victims of sexual violence, according to a 2023 government report.
40 million: The country’s security service, SBU, says five employees from a Ukrainian arms company have been charged with conspiring with officials to embezzle nearly $40 million from defense coffers. The money, meant for buying mortar shells to aid the fight against Russia, has been seized and returned to the defense budget. But the incident signals how Ukraine’s battle against corruption continues.
100,000: Protests were held in 30 German cities on Saturday, with up to 100,000 people demonstrating against far-right extremism in Deutschland. The protests – coincidently held on International Holocaust Remembrance Day – were a rebuke of the anti-immigrant rhetoric peddled by the increasingly popular Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, just months ahead of three major regional elections in eastern Germany where the AfD tends to do well.
$300 billion: A court in Hong Kong ordered Chinese property development giant Evergrande to liquidate as it struggles to restructure debts to service over $300 billion in liabilities. It is unclear whether China will allow foreign investors to seize Evergrande assets, and there are fears of major ramifications for the Chinese economy as a whole.
A2-B1: If you dream of moving to Paris, you’ll need to dust off your Petit Larousse and embrace the subjunctive. While French competence was previously only required for those seeking French citizenship, a new law passed on Saturday requires anyone applying for multi-year residency to prove they understand French at the A2 level (advanced beginner). And a 10-year residency card now requires a B1 (intermediate) level of proficiency.Hard Numbers: Deadly Kenya protests, Tory losses, surfer-bruh sea otter, skyrocketing China-Russia oil trade, soaring sea temps
6: In Kenya, ongoing protests over tax hikes and cost-of-living frustrations have turned deadly. The police have been ordered not to report deaths, but a watchdog group has confirmed that at least six protesters were shot and killed by authorities this week.
2: On Thursday, Britain’s Conservatives lost two parliamentary elections in Selby and Ainsty in northern England where PM Rishi Sunak’s party enjoys a majority. While a third by-election resulted in a win for the Tories in Uxbridge, many see the two losses as proof that Conservatives will face a tough battle at the next general election, likely to be held next year.
841: Sea otter 841 has reached national fame for stealing surfboards from surfers in Santa Cruz, Calif. 841, named after the number on her tag, has evaded attempts to capture her by luring her onto a surfboard and is still managing to steal and chew on surfboards.
2.13 million: China imported a record amount of Russian crude oil in the first half of 2023, importing 2.13 million barrels per day. The record-setting number reflects the growing trade relationship between China and Russia, one that could make China an influential mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war.
1.3: Sea surface temperatures are soaring in the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, which scientists say is partially fueling the current heatwave in Europe. The temperature of the North Atlantic began rising above historical averages in March and climbed to 1.3° C higher than the 1982-2011 mean on July 13.As Kenyans protest, their politicians play chicken
For two weeks, Kenya's major cities have been hit by anti-government protests that have since turned violent. Security forces have tear-gassed demonstrators in the capital, Nairobi, while pro-government mobs ransacked former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s farm and businesses shut their doors for fear of looting.
With no end in sight, the next round of rallies is scheduled for Thursday.
Despite the institutional gains made over the last decade, the specter of previous episodes of political violence hangs heavy in Kenya. So, what’s going on?
The flames of unrest are being stoked by two bitter political rivals, opposition leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto, who squared off in a tight presidential election in 2022. Odinga is contesting his narrow loss to Ruto, the ex-VP of Kenyatta (who endorsed Odinga in the race).
These three political heavyweights have a long history of working together in Kenya, where the separation between elite business and politics is slim to none.
Who’s who:
- Odinga hails from a political dynasty in Kenya. Despite losing the presidency five times, his political power stems from his ability to mobilize his passionate supporters — who have granted him nicknames like “Father,” “Act of God,” and most endearingly: “Tractor” — to stir up trouble on the streets.
- Ruto claims to be the first president not to come from a political family. He won in 2022 as a champion of the poor, pushing his rags-to-riches story and hustler image.
- Kenyatta ruled the country from 2013 to 2022. He’s left behind a mixed legacy of massive infrastructure development but also debt and corruption.
The relationship between the three is, to put it mildly, awkward. Ruto wants to take credit for what went right under Kenyatta and distance himself from the pitfalls. Similarly, Kenyatta and Odinga are old political rivals who buried the hatchet in 2018 with a joint statement declaring each other as “brothers.”
Officially, the protests are over inflation, which Odinga blames on Ruto and Ruto blames on Kenyatta. But Odinga also wants the president to step down because he claims — without evidence and despite the Supreme Court ruling otherwise — that he was cheated in 2022.
The problem is that Odinga was so sure he'd win that his coalition has struggled to regroup as the opposition, says Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey. Meanwhile, Ruto has co-opted many Odinga allies, hampering the ability of his rival to challenge him in parliament.
Odinga is using the cost-of-living narrative as a "lightning rod to ensure turnout" at his protests, Vasey adds. This is dangerous, he explains, because the opposition leader is a master at rallying his supporters to reach his political ends, no matter the risk of instability. (After he lost to Kenyatta in 2017, Odinga spurred violent political protests until he received public recognition of his power – in the form of a firm handshake – from the president.)
So while Odinga is officially trying to overturn Ruto's victory, Vasey believes that what he really wants is a "Handshake 2.0" or public recognition of his political power and influence.
Kenya is thus stuck in a political game of chicken in which Ruto, as president, has the upper hand (and not just because he was once a chicken vendor).
Odinga might be a political force on the streets, but Ruto is consolidating power in parliament and using the security forces to stop the protests from spreading beyond Nairobi and other major cities. The president believes he can wait Odinga out, gambling that if he doesn’t get what he wants soon, he’ll lose the political momentum.
Meanwhile, Vasey adds, Odinga has no choice but to “escalate in the hope [that] Ruto bites.”
What We’re Watching: Kenyan protest politics, twice the Ma in China, SNP names new leader
Anti-government protests escalate in Kenya
On Monday, hundreds of protesters stormed a controversial farm owned by Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta. The rioters stole livestock, cut down trees, and then set the land on fire.
The motive likely has something to do with the ongoing protests against the government of President William Ruto captained by opposition leader Raila Odinga, who narrowly lost the 2022 election to Ruto, Kenyatta’s ex-VP. (The members of this political threesome have all worked with each other in the past in Kenya, where elite business and politics are about as tight as can be.)
This behavior is nothing new for Odinga. While the protests are outwardly about the rising cost of living, Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey says that the opposition is just “taking his politics to the streets,” using inflation and other grievances as a “lightning rod to ensure turnout”. And while he is officially trying to overturn Ruto’s victory, Vasey believes that what Odinga really wants is an unofficial executive role in government.
From here, we can expect a test of political willpower. Odinga is threatening more rallies, while Ruto says he’ll continue to deploy the security forces against the protesters. The president hopes that if his rival doesn’t get his political concessions soon, popular support for his mobilization will subside.
The Mas go to China
On Monday, Alibaba founder Jack Ma appeared in public in China for the first time since late 2020, when he got caught in the crosshairs of Xi Jinping's tech crackdown after criticizing Chinese regulators. The billionaire, once China's richest man, paid the price by giving up control of his fintech company Ant Group, which was also blocked from going public and fined a record $7.5 billion for antitrust violations.
Meanwhile, Ma Ying-jeou (no relation) became the first former president of Taiwan to set foot in China since 1949. Ma — who is also the only Taiwanese leader to have met the sitting Chinese leader — is visiting this week as a private citizen, but anything Taiwan-related is always politically sensitive. What's more, his trip comes just days before current Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen travels to Central America and the US amid bubbling cross-strait tensions.
The Ma trips are unrelated and probably coincidental. Still, Jack Ma's resurfacing might be a sign that Xi is no longer going after China's tech titans because he needs them to help the economy recover from zero-COVID. For his part, Ma Ying-jeou probably wants to pitch the opposition Kuomintang party's softer touch with China in contrast with Tsai's hardline diplomacy ahead of the presidential elections in 2024.
Yousaf will lead Scotland’s divided governing party
“We will be the generation to win independence for Scotland.” So pledges Humza Yousaf, who was named leader of the Scottish National Party on Monday following a two-week-long election. Parliament will officially vote him in on Tuesday, naming him Scotland’s sixth first minister, the head of its devolved government.
Press attention will focus on the novelty of his win. Yousaf is the first Muslim to lead a major party in Britain. But he’s also now the first person to lead the SNP following the shock resignation of the still-popular Nicola Sturgeon, whose departure was seen by many as an admission that a new Scottish independence referendum is highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Yousaf’s razor-thin victory margin – he won just 52.1% of the vote against rival Kate Forbes – raises the thorny question of whether the party can remain strong without a credible call for a near-term independence vote to keep the party united despite its many differences on other issues.
“We are family,” says Yousaf of the party he now leads. How functional a family? We’re about to find out.