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A training of the fire division, guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (not pictured), is held in North Korea, March 18, 2024, in this picture released on March 19, 2024, by the Korean Central News Agency.
Hard Numbers: Kim Jong Un takes aim, Pakistan launches deadly airstrikes, Sunak’s asylum-seeking plan proves costly, BOJ raises rates, Death toll rises in Haiti
186: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: On Monday, North Korea responded to a visit to South Korea by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken by firing short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang an estimated 186 miles into the Sea of Japan. North Korea’s military has recently staged military maneuvers in response to annual US-South Korean joint drills.
8: Pakistan launched airstrikes on Monday on suspected hideouts of members of the Pakistani Taliban inside neighboring Afghanistan. Tensions are rising between Pakistan’s military and the Afghan Taliban, which claimed the attacks killed at least eight people.
292,000: A new report from the Institute for Public Policy Research argues that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to move asylum-seekers from the UK to Rwanda while their claims are evaluated could cost the British taxpayer $292,000 per person. Compare that with about 70,000 per person if migrants were allowed to remain in the UK during that period.
317: The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rates on Tuesday, raising the interest rate from -0.1% to 0%-0.1%, its first hike in 17 years. The historic move, which shifts the focus away from reflating growth with monetary stimulus, follows significant wage increases by Japan’s major corporations and a rise in consumer prices. The BOJ does not anticipate further increases in the near-term.10: At least 10 people were found dead Monday in the wealthy Petion-Ville suburb of Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital, victims of escalating gang violence amid political chaos following Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation. Homes, a bank, and a gas station were attacked, and it remains unclear who was responsible. The violence has prompted increased border security by neighbors like the Dominican Republic and evacuations of US citizens.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is welcomed upon arriving at King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024.
Blinken swims against current to push for Gaza truce
But Blinken is fighting an uphill battle, given Hamas seeks a permanent cease-fire and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear that he’s not giving up on his goal of destroying the militant group.
Bombing for peace? Blinken’s visit comes as the US ramps up strikes on Iran-backed militias in the region as part of a broader effort to deter further attacks on US forces. The tit-for-tat is being fueled by the war in Gaza, and it’s unlikely to end as long as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas.
What’s on the agenda? Blinken, who arrived in Riyadh on Monday, is set to visit Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and the occupied West Bank. His trip will also focus on post-war governance in Gaza and Washington’s hopes for a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Houthi tribesmen parade to show defiance after U.S. and U.K. air strikes on Houthi positions near Sanaa, Yemen February 4, 2024.
Houthis threaten to retaliate after US, UK attacks
On Sunday, Houthi militants vowed to punish the United States and the United Kingdom for pounding Houthi targets on Saturday. A coalition of countries supported attacks on 36 targets across 13 locations in Yemen, including rebel strongholds in the capital Sanaa, as the conflict between Israel, Hamas, and its proxies continued to spread well beyond Gaza. US forces also took out an anti-ship missile that was set to be used in the Red Sea.
The governments of Iran, Iraq, and Syria issued condemnations, and Russia called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council in New York on Monday. Iran also warned the US not to target two cargo ships suspected of serving as forward operating bases for Iranian commandos.
What’s next? In an attempt to quell rising tensions, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank between Sunday and Thursday. Blinken’s agenda includes the release of hostages held by Hamas, the establishment of a humanitarian pause in Gaza, and the safeguarding of maritime commerce in the Red Sea.
The logo of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is displayed on a window, during the 54th annual meeting of the WEF, in Davos, Switzerland, January 18, 2024.
Who’s skipping Davos – and watching the polls?
While Donald Trump was winning in Iowa and preparing for New Hampshire, economic and political elites were in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum … where they were worrying about a potential Trump 2.0.
As jets descended on Davos, there was plenty of chatter about who was and wasn’t in attendance. Five years ago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave a keynote at the confab. This year, he sat out along with most of his front bench. After chatter about the scarce Canadian contingent, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was added to the agenda, perhaps to make it seem like the Liberals weren’t working overtime to avoid hobnobbing with the jet set while Canadians struggle with affordability, housing, and healthcare crises. After all, his party is way behind in the polls, and Trudeau is taking flak – and facing a possible ethics investigation – over his winter vacation in Jamaica.
President Joe Biden also skipped Davos. His approval rating is…not great, hitting a new low this week. Like Trudeau, he may be inclined to stay close to home and focus on domestic issues as Americans face their own affordability crisis.
As worries about the large contingent from China working overtime at Davos for foreign investment circulate around Washington, Biden sent the soon-to-retire John Kerry and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, whose plane conked out before his trip back, to make the rounds and discuss climate change and the war in Gaza.
The American and Canadian Davos lineups remind us that foreign politics is often domestic politics abroad. Both Biden and Trudeau are in tough reelection races, with Biden likely to face Trump in November, and Trudeau set for a matchup with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre by October 2025. And neither man will find votes in Davos.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin hold a joint press conference after their talks in Seoul on Nov. 9, 2023.
Blinken comes home, Biden gears up for Xi
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken wrapped up a tour of Asian nations last week, as the United States worked to shore up support for its positions on issues including Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s increased belligerence toward Taiwan, and the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East.
On Thursday, Blinken met with South Korean officials including President Yoon Suk-yeol. The two countries reportedly aligned on their approach in the three arenas of conflict. According to South Korean intelligence reports, the matters are closely related. During a closed-door briefing to lawmakers last week, South Korea’s main spy agency said it believes that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un instructed officials to “comprehensively support” Palestinians and that the North could be considering selling weapons to terrorist organizations in the Middle East.
Then it was off to New Delhi, where Blinken and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with their Indian counterparts and engaged on a host of issues including a diplomatic dispute between India and Canada over the alleged assassination by Indian forces of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, and increased hostilities on the border of India and China.
Blinken’s tête-à-têtes came on the heels of the G7 summit in Tokyo on Nov. 7 and 8, where Japanese and British defense ministers reiterated their preference for a two-state solution in the Middle East. The G7 later issued a joint statement that also condemned “destabilizing activities” by Iran and called on Tehran to de-escalate tensions in the region.
Blinken’s tour comes ahead of the first meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in over a year, set for this week in San Francisco. While significant, expectations for agreement and action are low. “We’re not talking about a long list of outcomes or deliverables,” a senior administration official told reporters at a press conference last week. “The goals here really are about managing the competition, preventing the downside risk of conflict, and ensuring channels of communication are open.”
The two leaders’ agenda includes military communications, human rights, and the South China Sea. According to Eurasia Group Analyst Anna Ashton, much of the focus will be on Taiwan's presidential election, set for Jan. 13. “The candidate most likely to win based on current polling is Lai Ching-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party who draws support from Taiwan's most dedicated independence activists. That brings us to a second watchpoint in May, when Taiwan’s next president will be inaugurated,” says Ashton. And to another potential flashpoint for tensions between China and the US.
Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas meets with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Ramallah in the West Bank on Nov. 5, 2023.
Israel-Hamas war, 31 days in
A month in, and there’s no end in sight for the Israel-Hamas war. At least 1,400 Israeli civilians are dead, and 240 remain hostages, while some 9,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza. Protests around the world are calling for an end to the fighting, but there is no sign that a cease-fire is in the cards for either side.
On Saturday, foreign ministers from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Amman, Jordan, asking that he convince Israel to halt its bombardments. Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, did the same when Blinken met with him on Sunday in the West Bank.
But after the meetings, Blinken said an Israeli cease-fire in Gaza would only allow Hamas to regroup and to carry out further attacks while noting that Israel needed to take "every possible measure" to prevent civilian casualties. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also declared that “there won't be a cease-fire without the return of our hostages … we'll simply carry on until we win.” The Israeli military, meanwhile, said late Sunday that it had reached the coast in the south of Gaza City, effectively splitting the city in two.
What would beating Hamas look like? That is the question for the Jewish state and its allies amid Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza. Attempts to root out a terrorist organization operating amongst a civilian population have entailed severe loss of life for the Palestinians – something Hamas’ leadership decries yet extols.
"Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it. We are called a nation of martyrs, and we are proud to sacrifice martyrs,” said Hamas official Ghazi Hamad in a recent interview.
Hamad claimed that everything Hamas did was “justified” and that they would continue until Israel was destroyed. Such statements make it politically and practically impossible for Netanyahu to back down – and make a peaceful resolution of the crisis even less likely. They also increase fears of a regional conflagration, involving Hezbollah and the possibility of a third Intifada in the West Bank, as Hamas appeals to Islamic extremist elements to join its fight.
US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, meets with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Kirya in Tel Aviv on Thursday Oct 12, 2023 during a visit to show solidarity with Israel.
Biden and Blinken work to contain the Gaza war
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting with Israeli officials in Tel Aviv today. Before his trip, the State Department said he was going to Israel to “reiterate US support for Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorism … work to secure the immediate release of hostages, increase the pace and volume of humanitarian assistance entering Gaza for distribution to Palestinian civilians, and prevent the conflict from spreading.”
To this point, the United States has publicly expressed support for Israel’s security while privately urging the Israeli government to take every action possible to minimize harm to the Palestinians caught in the crossfire. The Biden administration has also urged the Israeli government to advance slowly into Gaza to allow time for diplomacy that might minimize the loss of life on both sides. On Thursday, Biden made these private pleas public with a request that Israel and Hamas militants “pause” fighting to allow time to free hostages held in Gaza, though he stopped short of expressing support for a formal cease-fire.
We can expect that both Biden’s and Blinken’s requests will be refused and that the White House will keep trying. Secretary Blinken will continue his eight-day road trip with stops in Jordan, Japan, South Korea, and India.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks to members of the media before leaving Cairo, Egypt, on Sunday.
World powers weigh in on Israel-Hamas War
As the crisis in Israel and Gaza deepens, various world powers are weighing in and offering to help mediate, some for their own geopolitical interests.
Washington repeatedly offered unwavering support to Israel following the Hamas attacks, but it is now also trying to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. In a phone call Saturday with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas – whose authority extends primarily to the West Bank – President Joe Biden pledged his full support for "urgently needed humanitarian assistance to Palestinian people, especially in Gaza."
On Saturday, Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reiterating US military support for Israel but also broaching the need for international coordination to “ensure innocent civilians have access to water, food, and medical care.” In turn, on Sunday, the US announced it was moving a second aircraft carrier into the region, and Israel restored the water supply to southern Gaza, though Palestinians have criticized the move as a “publicity stunt” since much of the infrastructure has been damaged by shelling or is unusable due to a lack of electricity.
In a broadcast interview on Sunday, Biden said that Israel reoccupying Gaza would be “a big mistake."
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the reopening of the Egyptian-controlled border crossing into Gaza and that the US was working with Egypt, Israel, and the UN to expedite assistance across the border, but there are conflicting reports as to whether a deal is in place.
Blinken has been on a whirlwind diplomatic tour in recent days, visiting with six of Israel’s neighbors in an attempt to prevent escalation. On Monday, he returned to Israel as its military prepared for an offensive in Gaza by land, sea, and air, with emphasis on “significant ground operations.”
Meanwhile, China is also getting involved. Beijing is reportedly in “intensive communication with all parties to push for a ceasefire and an end to the fighting,” with a focus on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. On Friday, Zhai Jun, China’s special envoy to the Middle East, met representatives from the 22-member Arab League in Beijing, seeking to broker a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians in conjunction with Egypt. The next day, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and said that Israel’s actions have extended beyond self-defense. China’s top diplomat, Wang Li, said that "The crux of the issue lies in the fact that justice has not been done to the Palestinian people.”
Statements like these, together with Beijing’s unwillingness to condemn Hamas, signal that China may be returning to its stance from the 1960s and 70s when it openly supported the Palestine Liberation Organization’s bid for statehood. Analysts believe China has concluded that Israel will always align with US interests and has “picked a side” to gain favor among Arab nations and win their support for its larger authoritarian agenda.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas also provides fertile ground for Russia to divert attention from its war with Ukraine. Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov told the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper, “Ukraine’s sponsors will be distracted by the conflict in Israel … the amount of military aid will go down … and the course of the operation may turn sharply in [Russia’s] favor.” Nonetheless, on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to mediate the conflict, saying that “Russia is ready to coordinate with all constructive partners.”
While no one expects Moscow to play a pivotal role in talks, it has sway with a number of parties involved, including Iran, which has threatened “far-reaching consequences” if Israel enters Gaza. Russia also has ties with Qatar, and a state media outlet reported that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov may soon meet with Hamas officials in Qatar to discuss the potential release of hostages kidnapped by Hamas.
Apart from Iran, Qatar arguably has the most influence over Hamas as its government has reportedly supported Hamas to the tune of $30 million a month. Qatar is also able to put financial pressure on Iran, as evidenced by its recent agreement to a US request that it not allow Tehran access to $6 billion in Iranian funds that were unblocked as part of a prisoner swap in September.