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South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol meets with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos during a news conference in Washington, DC.

Yonhap via REUTERS

“Squid Game” diplomacy

When US President Joe Biden hosts South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol at the White House on Wednesday, the two leaders will have a lot to talk about.

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Handout photo dated January 14, 2020 shows an MQ-9 Reaper flies over the Nevada Test and Training Range.

William Rio Rosado via Abaca Press via Reuters Connect

What We’re Watching: Drone drama, DeSantis vs. Ukraine, Japan hearts South Korea, Pakistan-Khan standoff

Drone drama over the Black Sea

In what is so far the closest thing to a direct clash between the US and Russia over Ukraine, a Russian jet on Tuesday crashed into an American drone over the Black Sea, sending the unmanned craft hurtling into the water.

Moscow disputes the claim, saying its jets didn't hit the drone. The US accused the pilots of two Russian Su-27s of being “unprofessional” and “environmentally unsafe” for harassing and “dumping fuel” on the $32 million MQ-9 Reaper drone.

But scholars point out that the US didn’t call the act “unlawful.” Russia was evidently within its rights to disrupt a drone in international territory that was almost certainly gathering intel for Moscow’s adversaries in Kyiv. Still, the incident shows the dangers of US and Russian military hardware operating in such close proximity, even if they aren’t in direct conflict.

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GZERO World

North Korean fireworks coming

As their relations with the US have soured, China and Russia have grown more reluctant to help the US and South Korea manage their North Korea problem. This has created more space for the North to develop and show off the weapons capabilities that the nation’s rogue regime deems essential to its survival.

Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un recently called for an “exponential increase” in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. In response to the heightened threat, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has said that US guarantees of protection may no longer be enough for his country and that it may need to acquire nukes of its own, although he has recently walked back some of those statements.

What could go wrong? We asked Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan what to expect this year on the Korean Peninsula.

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GZERO Media

What We're Watching: K-pop in China, US ends Remain in Mexico, China vs. porcupine

South Korea’s top diplomat visits China

South Korea's Foreign Minister Park Jin traveled to China this week for meetings with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi – the first such high-level visit since Yoon Suk-yeol became South Korea’s new president earlier this year. They had plenty to discuss. China wants Yoon to keep his predecessor’s promises not to expand the use of a US missile defense system, not to join a US-led global missile shield, and not to create a trilateral military alliance that includes Japan. China also wants South Korea to stay out of a computer chip alliance involving Taiwan and Japan. South Korea, meanwhile, wants China to understand that it values Beijing as a top trade partner and wants to build stronger commercial ties. Yoon notably refused to meet US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during her uber-controversial trip through Asia last week. But he’s also made clear that his predecessor’s commitments to Beijing are not binding on his government. The long-term economic and security stakes are high, but we will also be watching to see if South Korea has persuaded China to relax restrictions on the access of Chinese citizens to K-Pop, the South Korean pop music phenomenon. Seoul needs durable commercial relations with Beijing, and millions of Chinese music lovers need their South Korean boy bands.

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A South Korean soldier walks past a TV in Seoul broadcasting a news report on North Korea firing a missile.

REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

What We're Watching: South Korea dangles Kill Chain, frozen Afghan funds thawing

South Korea dusts off "Kill Chain" vs. North

We think a potential nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula would be sparked by a first strike from the North. But what if the South launched a preemptive strike instead? Since Yoon Suk-Yeol was elected South Korea’s president in March, Seoul has been paying more attention to its decade-old “Kill Chain” program, which calls for a series of rapid strikes against key North Korean targets when South Korean intelligence believes Pyongyang is about to attack — possibly also taking out the supreme leader and top generals. Why is Yoon considering this? It’s likely in response to Kim Jong Un developing hypersonic missiles that would give the South less time to respond. Also, Yoon may want a plan B in case the US waivers on its long-term security commitment to South Korea — former US President Donald Trump, for instance, threatened to force Seoul to pay a bigger bill. But it’s a catch-22: knowing that the South Koreans have “Kill Chain” in place could deter Kim from attacking, or it could prompt him to do something drastic while he still thinks he has the upper hand over Seoul.

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North Korea's Kim Jong Un walks away from what state media report is a "new type" of ICBM.

KCNA via REUTERS

Will standing up to North Korea work?

North Korea has engaged in an aggressive spate of missile testing this year. In response, the US and South Korea are changing tack and pushing back against Pyongyang with a more muscular show of force. Washington and Seoul’s robust replies are designed to push Kim Jong Un back to the negotiating table, furthering their quest to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.

But it’s a risky gamble. The fresh approach could convince an isolated and broke North Korea to talk shop, or Kim could double down and conduct his first nuclear test since 2017.

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Joe Biden speaks during a joint news conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk-youl in Seoul.

REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

In Asia to fix imbalance, Biden talks both guns and butter

In his first presidential trip to Asia, where he is visiting South Korea and Japan as well as huddling with Quad partners, Joe Biden isn’t expected to sign any major trade deals or defense agreements. But America’s commander-in-chief is going to be in China’s neighborhood, shoring up new and old alliances in the region, reminding Beijing that checking the PRC is very much on Washington’s agenda, despite the administration’s attention being taken up by domestic politics and the war in Ukraine.

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