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A 24-hour Yonhapnews TV broadcast at Yongsan Railway Station shows South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivering a speech at the Presidential Office in Seoul. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, defended his botched martial law declaration, as an act of governance and denied insurrection charges facing him, while vowing to fight until the last moment against whether it is impeachment or a martial law probe.
Yoon Suk Yeol can’t take “yes” for an answer
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol looks highly likely to be impeached on Saturday after the leader of his own party on Thursday told members to vote according to their “conviction and conscience.” Yoon cooked his own goose earlier in the day by delivering a fiery speech defending his decision to briefly impose martial law on Dec. 3 — and crashing behind-the-scenes efforts to allow him to resign on his own terms in the process.
“We tried to find a better way than impeachment, but that other way is invalid,” said Yoon’s party leader, Han Dong-hoon. “Suspending the president from his duties through impeachment is the only way for now, to defend democracy and the republic.”
If at least eight members from his own party vote with the opposition majority — and six have already pledged to do so — Yoon will be immediately suspended from office, with the prime minister assuming presidential responsibilities. His official removal will have to wait for the Constitutional Court to confirm the impeachment as legal, which could take weeks or months as three of the bench’s nine seats are vacant.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says Yoon will keep fighting all the way.
“Yoon will likely contest the impeachment charges in a way that we have never seen before, arguing that declaring martial law was within his presidential powers and a legitimate action to defend against the fierce opposition to his governing that the opposition-led National Assembly presented,” says Chan. “This will be a losing argument but one that I expect Yoon to make forcefully and personally before both the Constitutional Court and his likely criminal investigation.”
We’re watching how quickly the opposition chooses to roll the process along, as the timing of the by-election to replace Yoon depends on when the court rules.
A protester wears a South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol mask while holding a representation of prison bars, during a rally calling for the impeachment of the South Korean President, who declared martial law, which was reversed hours later, in front of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, December 11, 2024.
South Korean prosecutors weigh arresting president, police retreat after standoff
In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol’sparty hasturned on him, throwing their support behind attempts to impeach him after last week’s brief declaration of martial law. The flip came moments before Yoon delivered a fiery speech Thursday in which he justified his actions and vowed not to step down.
The lead prosecutor in South Korea’s criminal investigation into Yoon said Wednesday he would arrest the presidentif warranted. Also on Wednesday, police attempted to raid the Yongsan Presidential Office to secure evidence of Yoon’s actions and mindset before and during the martial law order but retreated after an hourslong standoff with presidential security.
Yoon survived an impeachment vote last weekend, but he faces another one on Saturday. The opposition Democratic Party, which controls the National Assembly but falls eight votes short of the bar for impeachment, is far more likely to succeed this time now that Yoon’s People Power Party is backing impeachment.
As GZERO previously reported, PPP’s leader had been pressuring Yoon to step down and avoid impeachment altogether, though perhaps not immediately. They wanted to get Yoon to publicly agree now to resign in, say, February, which would’ve pushed elections even further away, creating space for maneuvering. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who is the likely presidential candidate, has his own legal problems that could bar him from standing for office — if courts have enough time to process his case, that is. But with Yoon increasingly defiant, his party has decided to take matters into their own hands.
Can they really arrest the president? Ordinarily no. South Korea’s president enjoys immunity from prosecution — except in the case of insurrection charges. The case looks quite serious, and the former defense minister who allegedly encouraged the coup attempt tried to commit suicide following his arrest. He is now hospitalized, and the heads of the National Police Agency and Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency are also under arrest.
Looking ahead, Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan says Yoon’s impeachment is all but assured and that it “will be a positive development for the country because it will strip all presidential duties from Yoon and begin the process of turning the page on his presidency, which is likely to go down in history as the worst of its kind.”
Why Assad’s sudden fall was surprising
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why did you originally think Assad would be able to resist being overthrown?
I am absolutely surprised at the sudden regime change after 50 years of the Assads being in charge. A couple of reasons for it. First is because despite HTS wanting to engage in strikes, the Turkish government, which has been supporting them militarily, had been saying, "No, no, no." And even when they supported them, it was a flashing yellow light. It was take local territory, let the Syrians have more control over their border region. It was not going after Assad. Also, because the Russians and the Iranians, though they were significantly stretched, were providing military support in the early days. So that's the reason I thought that they were likely to be able to resist, but the fact is that they imploded very, very quickly.
What led you to believe Yoon's martial law declaration would fail in South Korea?
Well, here felt a lot like January 6th in the United States, January 8th in Brazil. You had a besieged individual leader, in this case not about an election, but facing 20% approval rates and massive corruption scandals and all sorts of impeachments against members of his cabinet, just getting desperate and deciding to pull the trigger on emergency martial law illegally and without talking even to leadership of his own party. So it seemed pretty clear that there wasn't going to be support. The South Korean people, the judiciary, the parliament, and rank and file, and the military were clearly not going to be supportive. So I mean, I expected that to last very, very briefly, and it fell apart very quickly indeed. He should be out of power in short order. And I expect he's going to resign, by the way, as opposed to being impeached, but it could go either way.
What's another major geopolitical assessment you've made that played out differently than expected, and what does it reveal about the complexities of global politics?
One of the biggest ones is probably the role of technology in geopolitics. Back in the '90s, if you think about the coloured revolutions in the former Soviet republics, you think about the Arab Spring after that, technology was really the communications revolution. It was decentralizing. It gave individuals access to more information and power. It undermined authoritarian regimes, and it promoted democracy. And today, just 20 years, 25 years later, technology has completely changed geopolitically. It's much more top-down. It's much more centralizing. It's about the data revolution, the surveillance revolution. It increasingly empowers authoritarian states that know how to use it, and it undermines democracies. And that is maybe one of the biggest geopolitical changes that's happened in my political lifetime, certainly the biggest since the Soviet Union imploded back in 1989 to '91. And it just goes to show that no matter what you think about the world, if you're not constantly updating your views, you're going to be wrong at some point.
South Koreans hold a mass rally demanding the impeachment and imprisonment of President Yoon Suk-Yeol near the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 7.
Is anyone in charge of South Korea?
We imagine Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is enjoying the scent of chaos emanating from his southern border. Last week, you’ll recall, President Yoon Suk Yeol took a page from Kim’s playbook and declared martial law in South Korea. That ended quickly, but the instability continues.
Deeply unpopular and hounded by scandals, Yoon may have thought he could take out his political enemies by suspending military and political activities, but steadfast legislators quickly gathered to vote and end the mutiny. Politicians then moved to impeach Yoon, but he survived when fellow conservatives in his People Power Party walked out before Saturday’s impeachment vote. While over 100,000 people protested Yoon’s leadership outside the legislature, only 195 legislators supported impeachment, just shy of the 200 votes needed for it to pass.
Afterward, Yoon apologized and promised not to declare martial law again, but that doesn’t mean all is forgiven. Yoon still faces legal trouble – prosecutors have opened a criminal case against him – and the PPP has reportedly officialized his “early resignation.” PPP leader Han Dong-hoon said Yoon has been effectively sidelined from his duties and that “the prime minister will consult with the party to manage state affairs.” Yoon's former defense minister has also been arrested.
Korean politics have entered “truly uncharted waters,” says Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan. “Yoon is politically radioactive, with no member of his own party defending his decision to impose martial law,” which means his “presidency is effectively over, even if he manages to stay in office for a few more weeks.”
Pressure will build on Yoon and the party for him to offer an “orderly resignation,” Chan explains. If he refuses, “the odds that he is impeached by the National Assembly will grow each week,” and the pressure will be accompanied by more and more public protests and strikes.
What about regional security? For now, Chan thinks Kim will keep his head low. “Kim’s risk appetite will be low in the short term given that a more accommodative administration is likely to follow in South Korea once Yoon is gone and elections are held.”
But what if Yoon holds on for months amid political paralysis? Then, Chan says, “Kim could see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to strike amid a leadership vacuum in South Korea.”Protesters hold placards during a candlelight vigil to condemn South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise declarations of the failed martial law and to call for his resignation in Seoul, South Korea, December 5, 2024.
Could Yoon declare martial law again?
On Thursday, Han Dong-hoon, the leader of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s party, said he was opposed to impeaching Yoon because it would add to national confusion. By Friday, however, he had changed his mind.
“Should Yoon continue to serve as president,” Han said Friday, "I think there is great risk for extreme actions like this martial-law declaration to happen again."
Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Han’s change of heart may be linked to reports that Yoon ordered Han’s arrest when he declared martial law on Tuesday. According to the National Intelligence Service deputy director, Yoon’s arrest list also included the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, and three opposition lawmakers. But there is confusion about that, too, because the head of the intelligence service said the opposite — that Yoon had not ordered arrests of the lawmakers.
Details of the chaotic planning “are more damning than initially expected and indicate that South Korea’s political system may have narrowly escaped a far more destabilizing outcome," says Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
The opposition controls a majority but falls eight votes short of the two-thirds margin needed to impeach. If Han lends his support to the effort, then Yoon’s goose is likely cooked.
Meanwhile, amid fears that Yoon might try to declare martial law again, South Korea's acting defense chief says he would refuse any such orders.
Watch the streets. Many South Korean voters are outraged by Yoon’s actions, and a failure to remove him from office quickly is likely to cause the modest protests and strikes to grow dramatically. We have our eye on the reaction to the impeachment vote, and to Han’s reversal on fighting it.
People gather outside the National Assembly after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 4, 2024.
South Korean president declares martial law — then backs off
In an unexpected, late-night speech on Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, banning all political activity, taking control of all media, and suspending parliament. For all of a few hours, it turned out. Now, he's facing possible impeachment.
The announcement appeared to come as a total shock to all parties except the military, with even the head of Yoon’s party announcing he would “stop it, with the people.” Troops surrounded the National Assembly in Seoul soon after Yoon’s announcement to preempt resistance, but 190 of the chamber’s 300 lawmakers made it inside after midnight, with more held up at the gates.
Legislators unanimously voted to order Yoon to lift martial law, and Speaker Woo Son-shik declared the president’s action “null and void.”
Meanwhile, thousands of citizens arrived to demonstrate in the wee hours. They chanted “Abolish martial law!” and “Arrest Yoon Suk Yeol!” Demonstrators blocked an eight lane road and began organizing impromptu caravans to bring in protesters from across the country, but by 4 a.m. the crowds began to thin.
Soon after, Yoon caved in. He got back on television around 4:20 a.m. to announce he had called a cabinet meeting, and that martial law would be lifted within hours.
What the hell was Yoon thinking? It was “an act of political desperation,” says Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan. It wasn’t about North Korea or social order — despite Yoon’s claims, he explains. Yoon was “trying to send a message to the National Assembly and bring all legislative investigations to a halt.”
Yoon, who is deeply unpopular, has been trapped in a stalemate with the opposition that controls the legislature. They have repeatedly tried to launch corruption investigations against his wife, which Yoon always vetoes, and moved to impeach government prosecutors while stymying the president’s budget priorities. Still, Yoon’s calculus is not entirely clear, as he was not subject to impeachment proceedings.
What happens next? “It’s hard to see how Yoon survives this unless there’s some sort of other shoe to drop that we don’t know about yet,” said Chan.
On Wednesday, amid calls for Yoon to resign, South Korea’s opposition politicians began impeachment proceedings that could lead to a vote as early as Friday.
Two-thirds of legislators must vote in favor in order for Yoon to be impeached, and the opposition has the needed votes almost by themselves; it will take only a small number of votes from Yoon's party to pass. The impeachment must then be approved by the Constitutional Court of Korea, and if Yoon is removed from office, a new election will be held within two months.
Beyond that, it’s unclear whether Yoon might face any legal punishment for his attempt to suspend democracy, but two out of the last three South Korean presidents served jail time after their terms for considerably less serious violations.
How is the world reacting? Mostly with shock. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell expressed “grave concern” but reiterated that Washington stands by its ally. President Joe Biden was briefed while traveling to Angola, and US officials say they are in contact with their counterparts in Seoul.
Plus: For more on why South Korea’s president declared martial law, check out Ian Bremmer’s latest Quick Take here.
President Joe Biden, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a trilateral meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 15, 2024.
Japan, US, South Korea unite against North Korea-Russia Pact
The next day, Japan’s foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, met his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, in Kyiv, to reaffirm Tokyo’s support for Ukraine and discuss further sanctions against Russia. Sybiha accused Pyongyang of feeding Moscow’s war machine in exchange for access to Russian military program, including missiles and nuclear weapons. Then on Sunday, Japan announced it will begin holding regular joint exercises with US troops in Australia starting in 2025, as those three countries strengthen their security ties amid growing threats from China.
Supporters with a placard 'April 10 is the Yoon Suk Yeol government, Judgment Day.' attend the Democratic Party of Korea's general election campaign rally at Yongsan Station Square in Seoul, South Korea, April 9, 2024.
South Korean opposition likely to clean up in key elections
South Koreans went to the polls today for key legislative elections amid a bitterly polarized environment and a sluggish economy, with early exit polls showing a likely landslide for the opposition Democratic Party. President Yoon Suk Yeol has been stymied by DP control of the unicameral legislature throughout the first two years of his presidency, and his People Power Party was facing daunting odds heading into today.
Cost of living is top of mind. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung turned the humble green onions that feature in so many Korean dishes into a political weapon after Yoon made remarks on their price that were perceived as being out of touch. Meanwhile, Yoon’s wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been at the center of a luxury gift scandal, which has hardly helped with perceptions of aloofness.
That said, Lee faces graft allegations of his own and is no less of a controversial figure. In fact, he was lucky to survive an attempted assassination in January, when he was stabbed in the neck at a campaign rally. Political violence is not unheard of in South Korea, but the incident underlines the depth of the country’s political divisions.
“Because of the political polarization, South Koreans end up deciding elections based on things like whether the first lady received a $2,000 handbag and didn't report it,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. “It speaks to the underlying dynamic in South Korea, where folks are deciding on the trivial stuff because the political parties can't deal with the big issues.”
And there are BIG issues on South Korea’s plate: The country is getting old and having very few babies, economic growth is weak and unlikely to improve, and, of course, North Korea’s nuclear weapons threaten total annihilation.
Chan expects Yoon to continue focusing on foreign policy if exit polls hold true, including “doubling down on the rapprochement with Japan, broadening relations with Europe, with ASEAN, and with the United States, while moving further away from China and North Korea, because that's where he can exert influence without the National Assembly.”
Official results are expected early Thursday.