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Ian Explains: What's blocking an Israel-Hamas cease-fire?
What is standing in the way of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the war in Gaza?
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer unpacks the challenges and obstacles to achieving a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Hamas war. The stakes are, as ever, incredibly high, and the humanitarian crisis has only gotten worse since the war began. Since October 7, around 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, and the UN estimates that 60% of Gazan homes and 80% of commercial buildings and schools have been destroyed or damaged. If the fighting doesn’t end soon, over a million Gazans will face near-total starvation by mid-summer.
In late May, President Biden unveiled a three-phase ceasefire proposal that he said had the support of the Israeli government and the global community and was backed by the UN Security Council. But hopes for an agreement were dashed after Hamas requested amendments to the deal and Israel refused to publicly accept the plan. Hamas says any deal must include a permanent end to the war and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel says it will only accept temporary pauses in fighting until Hamas is fully eradicated.
So is there any hope of a breakthrough? Will politics continue to take precedence over peace? Both the Palestinian and Israeli people would benefit from a real, lasting ceasefire, but, as Bremmer explains, it's not clear that the political leadership on either side actually wants it to happen.
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Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Possibly. They will make it harder, a lot harder for the Russians to take or advance on Kharkiv further, which is the second largest city in Ukraine, millions of people near the front lines. And if the Russians were to take it or destroy it, level it, you'd have millions of refugees that would be streaming out and into neighboring countries. Not something anyone in NATO wants to see. That is what is less likely to happen, because the Ukrainians can now hit Russian targeting outside of Ukraine.
How might India's trajectory evolve if Modi secures a third term in office?
Looks certainly very likely he's going to get a third term. That's what we've been thinking all the way through. And another five years means strong economic policymaking. Consistency from a Modi who has wanted to make India more investable, a Modi that has wanted to make India more attractive to partners, multinational corporations, financial institutions all over the world. Having said all of that, he has been much more pro-business than pro-competition. And that, of course, makes ultimately India less attractive as a market participant and certainly for a lot of companies, as India grows than it might otherwise be. Still, you're talking about the fifth largest economy in the world on track to becoming the third, growing at 7-8% a year, from a very low base for the next decade. Modi's leadership in India certainly makes you want to bet more on India, not less.
What is the likelihood that Israel and Hamas will agree to Biden's proposed cease-fire deal?
On balance, I still think it's pretty low, in part because the Israelis are not prepared to accept a shift to a permanent cease-fire until Hamas is destroyed. It's not just about Hamas not being able to engage in an October 7th attack again, as Biden has suggested. And that is an arrangement that Hamas is much less willing to sign on to. So, right now, at least, it seems the overlap between the interests of the two combatants, is not yet at a place where we can see a deal.
An Israeli medic walks near soldiers and an ambulance after Hamas claimed responsibility for an attack on the Kerem Shalom crossing near Israel's border with Gaza in southern Israel, on May 5, 2024.
Israel and Hamas deal up in smoke?
Hope for a cease-fire faded again Sunday as Hamas left the talks in Cairo. This came just days after the group said it saw the latest proposal – thought to have included a 40-day pause in fighting in exchange for the release of hostages – “in a positive light.” But Hamas’ insistence that a deal for the hostages bring an end to the war was a non-starter for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Our test is to continue and stand together until we reach victory,” Netanyahu said Sunday. Hamas plans to return to Cairo on Tuesday, but Israel, which is preparing for a ground operation in Rafah that’s set to start “soon,” ordered around 100,000 civilians living in parts of Rafah to evacuate on Monday morning.
Meanwhile, Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' armed wing, fired rockets on the Kerem Shalom crossing from Gaza into Israel on Sunday, killing three IDF soldiers and wounding 11 others. Israel closed the crossing, which will further complicate the flow of humanitarian aid, as the director of the World Food Program declared a “full-blown famine” in northern Gaza – a claim disputed by Israel.
Israel also closed Al Jazeera’s operations on Sunday after Netanyahu reportedly said it was “time to expel the mouthpiece of Hamas.” The Israeli Cabinet ordered a shutdown of the Qatari-owned media company’s local operations “for as long as the war in Gaza continues.” Authorities then raided a hotel room used by the network in Jerusalem, confiscating equipment.
The decision prompted criticism from the Foreign Press Association and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, which urged the Israeli government to overturn the ban.US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Greenfield-Thomas addresses a meeting of the Security Council as they consider a US-sponsored resolution calling for a cease-fire in Gaza, on March 22, 2024.
China and Russia veto US cease-fire resolution for Gaza
Yet another Gaza cease-fire resolution failed in the UN Security Council today – though the US was not responsible for blocking it this time. China and Russia vetoed a US-sponsored resolution urging for “an immediate and sustained cease-fire” in the Israel-Hamas war in connection with a hostage deal.
Beijing and Moscow’s ambassadors seemingly took issue with the language of the resolution, contending it didn’t go far enough to demand a cease-fire. The US resolution “sets up conditions for a ceasefire, which is no different from giving a green light to continued killings, which is unacceptable,” said Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to the UN.
Russia's ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, said Moscow supported a cease-fire but decried the US resolution as a “hypocritical spectacle.” Nebenzia said it was “exceedingly politicized … to help to play to the voters, to throw them a bone in the form of some kind of a mention of a cease-fire in Gaza.”
The US, Israel’s top ally, previously vetoed three cease-fire resolutions. The latest resolution signaled a shift in Washington’s stance on the war, as the Biden administration faces domestic pressure over its support for Israel and butts heads with Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over plans to invade Rafah – a city filled with displaced Palestinians.
Playing politics? The US accused Russia and China, two of its top adversaries, of tanking the resolution for political reasons. "Russia and China simply did not want to vote for a resolution that was penned by the United States,” said US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
What’s next? Elected members of the UNSC have penned an alternative resolution that demands an immediate cease-fire, which could be brought to a vote on Friday afternoon. The US has signaled it will block the measure.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Israel on Friday as part of ongoing efforts to secure a new truce. Netanyahu remained defiant during the visit, telling Blinken that Israel can't defeat Hamas without going into Rafah and that it will move forward with the operation without US support if necessary.
President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn to Marine One to start his trip from the White House to New York City.
Biden says cease-fire deal is just around the corner
Israel has also signaled it could release a group of high-profile Palestinian prisoners as a part of the deal. Israel has resisted such a concession in the past because releasing Palestinians convicted of terrorism could attract significant domestic criticism. But it could go a long way toward temporarily pausing the fighting.
However, the most important parts of the deal for Hamas – including the length of a cease-fire and Hamas’s demand for a complete withdrawal of Israeli military forces from Gaza — are still under discussion. Hamas officials have indicated the two sides are not as close to a deal as Biden suggests.
Palestinians leave Rafah in fear of an Israeli military operation in the southern Gaza Strip, on Feb. 13, 2024.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon revive concerns about widening war
Israel launched airstrikes in Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least 10 civilians, in response to a suspected Hezbollah rocket attack that killed an Israeli soldier. Hezbollah on Thursday said Israel would "pay the price for these crimes."
The US raised alarm about the potential for escalation and pushed for a diplomatic resolution to the tensions.
Israel and Hezbollah — a powerful Iran-backed militia group that collaborates with Hamas — have traded fire for months as the war in Gaza fuels wider tensions, raising concerns that Israel could end up in a two-front war.
Israel's recent airstrikes “reflect domestic political and social pressures to respond more forcefully to Hezbollah,” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group.
And there’s likely to be more where that came from. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned Tuesday that attacks on Israel end only “when the shooting stops in Gaza.” However, he has previously signaled reluctance to face a full-scale war with Israel, which could inflict huge pain on Lebanon more broadly.
Meanwhile, as Israel prepares to invade the southern Gaza town of Rafah, where 1.4 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, the US, Egypt, and Qatar are scrambling to establish a new truce. So far, both Hamas and Israel have rejected the terms.Graphic Truth: What would Ukrainians give up for peace?
Ukraine is days away from marking the second anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion. The war is largely stalemated, with few changes to the battlefield map in recent months. Ukrainian troops are engaged in brutal trench warfare reminiscent of World War I but with the added nightmare of deadlier modern weaponry and technology. After enjoying strong, steady support from its Western allies in the first year and a half of the war, Kyiv now faces a constant struggle to keep aid flowing in as it runs short on supplies and faces manpower issues. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of backing down despite the myriad political, economic, and societal consequences the war has had for Russia.
But none of that is undermining Ukraine’s resolve. New polling from the Munich Security Conference shows that Ukrainians are strongly opposed to any cease-fire framework that would require Kyiv to cede territory to Russia — particularly Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. This suggests that Ukrainians are largely aligned with their government, which has pushed for a peace plan that would see Russia withdraw troops from occupied territories and recognize Ukraine’s 1991 post-Soviet borders. Moscow has scoffed at this proposal.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is welcomed upon arriving at King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024.
Blinken swims against current to push for Gaza truce
But Blinken is fighting an uphill battle, given Hamas seeks a permanent cease-fire and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear that he’s not giving up on his goal of destroying the militant group.
Bombing for peace? Blinken’s visit comes as the US ramps up strikes on Iran-backed militias in the region as part of a broader effort to deter further attacks on US forces. The tit-for-tat is being fueled by the war in Gaza, and it’s unlikely to end as long as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas.
What’s on the agenda? Blinken, who arrived in Riyadh on Monday, is set to visit Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and the occupied West Bank. His trip will also focus on post-war governance in Gaza and Washington’s hopes for a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.