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Do nuclear weapons make a country safer?
Does acquiring nuclear weapons make your country safer? It’s a difficult question. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks back to the 1990s and a tale of two radically different nuclear—Ukraine and North Korea.
Ukraine inherited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal after the Soviet collapse. They gave them up in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from the US, UK and Russia. But assurances aren't guarantees, and a decade later, Russia illegally annexed Crimea before launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. Meanwhile, North Korea abandoned diplomacy, pursued nuclear weapons, and lied to the world all along. Now it’s a global pariah, but the uncomfortable truth is nobody’s thinking of invading North Korea. So did Kyiv get played? Did Pyongyang make a smarter move? The contrast between Ukraine’s vulnerability and North Korea’s impunity seems stark. But the story is more complicated. Building nuclear weapons is a gamble, not a strategy. Watch Ian Explains to understand why and what it means for the growing nuclear threat in 2025.
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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a televised message, after the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, in Tehran, Iran, June 26, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Khamenei emerges from bunker, North Korea opens beach resort, & More
Iran’s leader reappears, but big challenges await
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has finally emerged from his bunker, delivering a public video message for the first time since the United States bombed three key nuclear sites in his country last weekend. The Ayatollah claimed “victory” and sought to downplay the effects of the US strikes. His week-long absence had reportedly left many Iranians worried. He faces a myriad of challenges now, including reasserting his power in the wake of Israel’s wave of assassinations of top commanders and aides. He also will need to decide what’s next for Iran’s damaged nuclear program.
Putin and Xi to miss BRICS summit
In a week where the alliance between Europe and the US rebounded at the NATO summit, the premier Global South grouping appears to be trending in the opposite direction: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip the BRICS summit, which starts on July 6. Putin is wary of his outstanding war crimes arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, while Beijing says Xi won’t go because he’s already met Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva twice in the last year. Brasilia sees this as a snub.
North Korea to open… a beach resort.
Looking for a last-minute summer get-away? Seeking a quiet spot that’s off the beaten track? The new Wonsan Kalma beach resort in North Korea might be just the place for you! Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un hopes the coastal enclave, formerly a missile-testing site, will help to boost tourism. The idea was born seven years ago, in part because of Donald Trump’s musings about the appeal of North Korean beaches. The resort will officially open on July 1.
By the way, it just so happens that GZERO’s puppet satire series PUPPET REGIME actually has a song about this – you can rock along on Instagram or YouTube.People demonstrations outside the Supreme Court against gender-affirming care for transgender children in Washington, DC, on December 4, 2024. The Court is hearing oral arguments in the United States vs. Skirmetti, which challenges Tennessee’s ban on transgender care for minors. The ruling could affect the 26 states that criminalize gender-affirming care for children.
HARD NUMBERS: SCOTUS affirm transition care ban, OpenAI dons combat boots, and more
6-3: In a 6-3 vote with national implications, the US Supreme Court upheld a Tennessee law that bans gender-affirming care for children, deciding that it doesn’t contravene the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment. Tennessee is one of 25 states that have banned gender transition care for minors.
$200 million: OpenAI landed a $200-million contract to develop artificial intelligence tools for the US Department of Defense. The Pentagon said the company’s work will help address national security challenges in warfighting. The contract is the first under OpenAI’s new initiative to work with governments.
5,000: North Korea will send 5,000 construction workers to support rebuilding efforts in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive last year. The announcement followed Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Pyongyang on Tuesday. North Korea has previously sent troops to fight on Russia’s behalf in Kursk.
24: The UAE rescued 24 crewmembers after two oil tankers collided in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. The strait is a vital gateway into the Persian Gulf, with over one fifth of global oil supply flowing through it daily.
Israeli police dispersed a demonstration in West Jerusalem in which Israelis gathered to demand an end to the ongoing Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, on April 9, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Deadly Israeli strike hits Gaza, UK nabs Universal theme park, US visa clampdown crosses threshold, North Korea gets combat lessons, Pleas for release of activist
23: An Israeli airstrike hit a residential area in northern Gaza on Wednesday, reportedly killing 23 people, according to local health officials. A Hamas-run health ministry said that eight women and eight children were among the dead. Israel said it had struck a senior Hamas militant. Meanwhile, in West Jerusalem, police dispersed demonstrators who gathered to protest the ongoing Israeli attacks in Gaza and the killing of Palestinian emergency workers.
8.5 million: As if US tariffs haven’t caused enough of a rollercoaster, Universal announced this week that it plans to build its first-ever European theme park in the United Kingdom and estimated that 8.5 million people will visit during its first year. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed the plans, saying the news even piqued his children’s interests. The plan is for the park to open in 2031.
500: As part of its clampdown against higher education, the Trump administration has now revoked visas from more than 500 foreign students in the United States, according to NAFSA, an association dedicated to international education. Universities have started warning foreign students and faculty against traveling abroad, as it could allow authorities to take away their visas.
1.2 million: North Korea’s army, totaling 1.2 million soldiers, is reportedly gaining invaluable experience of modern combat from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Twelve thousand of these North Korean fighters helped the Russian ranks beat back the Ukrainians in the Kursk region in December, and South Korea has claimed that another 3,000 North Koreans are joining the Russian frontlines this year.
30: More than 30 human rights groups are pressing the United Kingdom and the European Union to reverse the extradition of Egyptian activist Abdulrahman al-Qaradawi from Lebanon to the United Arab Emirates, where he faces charges of undermining public security, according to UAE state media. An Egyptian activist who has been critical of several Arab states, Qaradawi has reportedly been held in solitary confinement for three months, and he also faces an extradition demand from his home country.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervises the test of suicide drones with artificial intelligence at an unknown location, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on March 27, 2025.
North Korea preps new kamikaze drones
This development, which broke late last week, follows trends in militarization around the world, particularly in the United States and China. We’re already seeing them on the battlefield in the war between Ukraine and Russia. AI-powered drones are handling 80% of strikes, according to our recent interview with former Ukrainian defense advisor Kateryna Bondar, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. However, she stressed that humans are still needed in the loop and that we’re a long way away from “killer robots.”
North Korea has traditionally lagged behind the major superpowers on military development, but AI presents another opportunity to level the playing field if it can get access to the right technology and materials.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un visits a shipyard, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on March 8, 2025.
Kim Jong Un shows off North Korea’s first nuclear-powered sub
Cigarette in hand, and with the toothiest of grins, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un posed for photographs at a shipyard next to the makings of a “nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine.” The vessel appears to be a 6,000-ton-class or 7,000-ton-class one, with a payload of 10 missiles, in line with plans unveiled at the Hermit Kingdom’s 2021 party congress.
While “it will take more than still images to demonstrate a functioning nuclear-powered submarine,” according to Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan, “there is little doubt that Pyongyang is making real progress toward developing a weapon that only a handful of countries possess in their arsenals.”
Why tell the world? Like Kim’s visit last year to North Korea’s underground uranium centrifuges, the submarine story, which broke over the weekend, signals Kim’s plans for nuclear expansion. But it could also be a bargaining chip. “Kim could be seeking to extract concessions from Seoul and Washington in renewed negotiations with Trump and/or a progressive government in South Korea that are likely to kick off later in 2025,” says Chan.
Is Kim flaunting his links to Moscow? North Korea’s nuclear sub capabilities could enable Pyongyang to threaten US maritime assets including aircraft carriers – and be a sign that Russia is transferring military technology in return for Kim’s artillery and troop support in Ukraine.
Trump-Putin chat over Ukraine "deeply" worries Europe
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from Munich, Germany, where the Munich Security Conference is just about to kick off. And it is going to be a historic meeting, and not necessarily in a good way.
Everyone I've been speaking to here, deeply concerned about the sudden conversation, 90-minute conversation, with a full readout from, both the Kremlin and from the United States, between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Not so much concerned that a conversation took place, rather that it happened, and Trump is engaging unilaterally without coordinating in advance with the Ukrainians or the Europeans. And in that regard, very, very different than what we've seen over the first three years of the war.
Look, there's no question, everyone does want to see the war wind down. Everyone would love to see a ceasefire. The question is, how and what does the NATO alliance look like after that? What does Europe look like in terms of its engagement, its trust with the United States, the transatlantic relationship? And, of course, what happens with Ukraine? The statements that have been made by Trump and by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth are things that we've heard a lot about privately, not just from the Trump administration, from the Europeans, from the Biden administration too, the idea that NATO membership is not in the cards, long-term, if there's going to be some sort of formal peace agreement, that Ukraine is going to have to give up some kind of territory, not that they should, not that that's reasonable, not they don't have territorial integrity, but there's no way for them to get back all the territory that they had back in 2014. Those are things that have now been said publicly by the Americans. But they are being said both unilaterally and also in advance of any negotiation. In other words, concessions are being made to the Russians before both sides sit down. And that is, of course, a very significant concern, for the Europeans and the Ukrainians.
There is also a question what kind of security guarantees would be provided to Ukraine? According to the United States, certainly will not involve Americans on the ground. No troops. Would be European troops. They're the ones that have to do the bulk of the lifting. They're the ones that have to ensure that there was a response if Ukraine were attacked again, after a ceasefire. Now, it's not that the Americans are suddenly washing their hands of all of this. In fact, the first cabinet official to go to Kiev from the Trump administration, just met with Zelensky in the last 24-hours; that’s Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. Why Treasury? Because Trump is trying to get something for giving something. It's transactional, as he always is. And in this case, focusing on critical minerals from Ukraine. Nominally, the number is some $500 billion of what would be Ukrainian resources to the United States in return for ongoing, US military support for Ukraine.
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “This is selfish, the Americans shouldn't be doing this.” The Ukrainian president, who actually has to work with the Americans going forward, unlike Scholz, saying, “What a great offer. Happy to talk to you. Want to find a way to make this work?” So, on the one hand, it's not as if the United States is leaving Ukraine high and dry. And certainly, a level of engagement between the Americans and the Russians is very important. It’s essential going forward. But of course, what Putin wants is a deal not only to his favor, but not just about Ukraine. He wants to be talking just to the Americans, and he wants to be talking to them about missile defense, about NATO enlargement, about a whole range of issues that he has, that he takes issue with. And that's something that Trump is perfectly interested in.
At the end of the day, Trump is a lot more interested in cutting a deal for himself that allows the Americans to focus a lot more on China and on Asia, from a security perspective, than working with the Europeans to try to do something collectively on Ukraine. And this is the biggest challenge and also the biggest difference between Trump and Biden, in terms of foreign policy. Biden fundamentally believe that a strong Europe, coordinated with the United States, was long-term in American interests. President Trump does not. He believes that a strong Europe is a bad thing. He wants to see more exits, like Brexit, from other countries. He supports Euro-skeptic movements across Europe. He would much rather have individual negotiations with individual European countries where the Americans are stronger.
What does that mean for the Munich Security Conference? What does it mean for NATO? What does it mean for the transatlantic relationship? Long-term, nothing good. Final point here, the Europeans are taking this seriously, but it's late. They've been told, by Americans for several administrations now, they need to be spending more time and more money on their own defense, their own collective security. Macron has talked about it a fair amount in France. The Polish government is certainly taking the lead on that, especially after the Russians invade Ukraine. But most European governments aren't taking it nearly as seriously and aren't prepared to spend the money. And that reality, for decades now, made much more stark and severe with the Russian invasion in 2014 of Ukraine, which the Europeans did virtually nothing about, and now, when 2022, you've got Trump coming in and saying, “I'm not going to do this,” that's forcing the Europeans in a much more stark way, but also much too late for them to get their act together, in my view.
So, we'll see what we see over the next couple of days, but this is going to be a very, again, historic Munich Security Conference. Glad to be here, and we'll talk to you soon.
A housing activist holds a sign outside a building whose residents fear they will be evicted after its purchase by a real estate investment fund, in the neighborhood of Lavapies, in Madrid, Spain, on Dec. 14, 2024. The sign reads, "My motherland is my neighborhood."
HARD NUMBERS: Spain jacks taxes for foreigners, North Korea blasts off again, Haitian displacements soar, Red Note noted by TikTok users
2: The new year is off to an explosive start in North Korea, where the regime has already conducted its second large-scale missile test of 2025, firing a barrage of short-range ballistic weapons into the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Last week, Pyongyang let fly a hypersonic medium-range missile, after spending much of 2024 testing missiles of all kinds. Over the past year, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has severely hardened his policy toward the US, South Korea, and Japan, which he accused of forming a bloc of “aggression.”
1, 041,000 million: The number of Haitians displaced by gang violence has tripled over the past year, reaching at least 1,041,000 people, according to a new UN assessment. The forced return of about 200,000 Haitians from the neighboring Dominican Republic had made the problem even worse. Last week, Guatemala was the latest country to join a Kenyan-led international mission in Haiti that is struggling to quash the powerful gangs that control much of the capital, Port-au-Prince.
300 million: With just days before TikTok’s ban in the US is set to go into effect, thousands of the popular app’s users are reportedly flocking – in both irony and protest – to another Chinese-owned video platform called Xiaohongshu, or “little red book,” which English speakers simply call “Red Note.” The app has 300 million users already and is mostly in Chinese, meaning most of the new users have to use translation tools to navigate it.