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The dangerous new nuclear arms race
Is the world entering a new, dangerous nuclear era? China is expanding its stockpile of nuclear warheads at an alarming rate. Russia continues to rattle its nuclear saber in Ukraine. Even US allies are publicly and privately questioning whether they need their own nuclear deterrent.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer and Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, discuss the growing nuclear threat and what we can do to stop it. With new existential threats like AI and bioweapons, the question now isn’t just who gets the bomb. It’s whether systems designed to prevent catastrophe still work in a world where the weapons (and the rules) are changing. The good news is we aren’t yet at crisis point. Stravridis says the best way to counter the growing nuclear risk is to reopen arms limitation talks, modernize military tech and to reinvest in strong alliances, to prevent Russia and China from drawing even closer together.
“People are less trusting of the US as a nuclear umbrella,” Stavridis says, “If nations like Iran and North Korea can obtain nuclear weapons, which one has and the other has been very close, other countries start to think maybe it looks pretty good to get one.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
The return of the nuclear threat, with Admiral James Stavridis
Listen: The world is heading toward a new nuclear arms race—one that’s more chaotic and dangerous than the last. The Cold War built rules of deterrence for a world of dueling superpowers and static arsenals. But in a fragmented, GZERO world of fast-moving technology and unpredictable leadership, the safeguards are fraying. On the GZERO World Podcast, Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, sits down with Ian Bremmer to discuss the growing nuclear threat and what we can do to stop it.
The indicators are alarming: China is stockpiling nuclear warheads at record speed. Russia continues to rattle its nuclear saber in Ukraine. Even US allies are privately and publicly questioning whether they need a deterrent of their own. So how serious is the nuclear risk? How do we guarantee security in a world where the weapons (and the rules) are changing? Are we ready for a future where not just missiles, but lines of code, could end civilization? Stavridis and Bremmer assess the current arms race and what it will take to lower the nuclear temperature.
“We're already involved in a proxy war with a nuclear power,” Stavridis warns, “We'd be smart to try and continue to have strong alliances to balance China and Russia drawing closer and closer together.”
Do nuclear weapons make a country safer?
Does acquiring nuclear weapons make your country safer? It’s a difficult question. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks back to the 1990s and a tale of two radically different nuclear—Ukraine and North Korea.
Ukraine inherited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal after the Soviet collapse. They gave them up in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from the US, UK and Russia. But assurances aren't guarantees, and a decade later, Russia illegally annexed Crimea before launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. Meanwhile, North Korea abandoned diplomacy, pursued nuclear weapons, and lied to the world all along. Now it’s a global pariah, but the uncomfortable truth is nobody’s thinking of invading North Korea. So did Kyiv get played? Did Pyongyang make a smarter move? The contrast between Ukraine’s vulnerability and North Korea’s impunity seems stark. But the story is more complicated. Building nuclear weapons is a gamble, not a strategy. Watch Ian Explains to understand why and what it means for the growing nuclear threat in 2025.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Zohran Mamdani gestures as he speaks during a watch party for his primary election to become the Democratic candidate for New York City mayor on June 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Far-left upstart wins NYC mayoral primary, NATO members to boost defense spending, Iran nuclear damage in doubt
Upstart wins mayoral primary in New York
In a stunning political upset with national implications, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year old Democratic Socialist, won New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, defeating centrist former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. In heavily blue NYC, the Democratic primary winner usually wins the November general election. Mamdani, though, will face a strong backlash from Wall Street power brokers and centrists like current Mayor Eric Adams, who will likely challenge him as an Independent. National-level Dems are closely watching the race. As the party seeks a path back from the wilderness, it faces a widening internal rift between progressives and establishment-oriented centrists.
NATO summit agrees to massive defense spending increases
The 32-member alliance formally agreed to US President Donald Trump’s demand that they boost defense-spending targets from 2% to 5% of GDP, with the goal of achieving this by 2035. Some countries appear to be getting a headstart: Germany pledged a 70% increase in spending by 2029, the United Kingdom is buying jets that can drop nuclear weapons, while Poland wants to get close to the 5% target this year. However, the steep costs could increase pressure on European government budgets, which are renowned for upholding their end of the social contract.
How badly damaged is Iran’s nuclear program?
Four days after US President Donald Trump’s Midnight Hammer struck three key Iranian nuclear facilities, the effects are still unclear. A new US intel report says the mission set back Tehran’s atomic ambitions by only a few months – Trump disputes this. It’s also uncertain what Iran did with the uranium it has already enriched. The stakes are high: if Tehran can in fact revive its program in short order, the US-Israeli assault will be seen as a costly and risky failure.
How do we avert nuclear disaster in 2023?
Rafael Grossi has a very tough job as head of the UN's nuclear watchdog. But he's an optimist.
Still, the stakes are very high.
We've got North Korea building even more nukes. Russia turned into a rogue state that controls Europe's largest power plant in Ukraine, which is still at risk of an accident. And Iran getting closer to getting the bomb.
Last but not last, there's the global race to build smaller, faster tactical nukes.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Rogue states gone nuclear and the watchdog working to avert disaster
What happens if Russia nukes Ukraine?
How should the US respond if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
Unlike strategic ones, tactical nukes are not subject by signed treaties, so all bets are off, New York Times national security correspondent David Sanger tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Independent agencies don't inspect them so we don't know very much about their size, range, effects, or pre-launch prep.
As for the 'Mutually Assured Destruction' dynamic that held nuclear war at bay for 60 years, including during the Cuban Missile Crisis? Sanger says the dynamics now are "completely different."
Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it's not clear if a Russian nuclear attack there would trigger a major US response.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US threat levels from foreign and domestic enemies
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Kevin Rudd: Xi thinks Putin is a "dummy"
Australia's former PM believes that the once-blossoming bromance between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin has turned toxic. Why? You guessed it: Russia's war in Ukraine.
China's leader thinks Putin is a "dummy" for launching a "halfcocked" invasion that neither the Russian military could pull off nor the Russian economy afford, Rudd — also president and CEO of the Asia Society — says during a conversation with Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer at the Asia Society's HQ in New York.
While Xi won't break ranks in public, Rudd adds that in private, he’s "crab-walking away from 100% endorsement" of Russia, as we saw at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan.
As for whether China can deter Russia from using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Rudd says Xi has been clear: don't do it, Vladimir.
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Ian Bremmer: Risk of nuclear crisis in 2022 is too high
The White House believes that there is a 20% chance of another Cuban Missile Crisis "in the next eight weeks" with Russia, Ian Bremmer said at an event at the Asia Society in New York on Monday. While Bremmer doesn't see as high a chance that Putin would risk using nuclear weapons, he added, "Either way, those numbers are way too freaking high." The even bigger risk, he points out, is that not enough is being done to manage the unprecedented danger from Russia in the medium term.
The Russian economy is being cut off from the West the same way as Iran has been, with a 40% or 50% contraction expected over the next five years. A G20 economy has never been decoupled from the West before. If Russia becomes a rogue state like Iran with ballistic missile attacks, drone strikes, espionage, proxy wars, radicalism, and terrorist violence - but with 6,000 nuclear warheads in their arsenal - "that really does not bode well for the next five, 10 years or for our kids. It really doesn't," Bremmer told former Australian PM and Asia Society President and CEO Kevin Rudd at the Asia Society's headquarters in New York.