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Xi & "friend" Putin could call for Ukraine ceasefire
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
The big story geopolitically is Xi Jinping's trip to Moscow, a three-day state visit, by far the most geopolitically significant summit of the year since the Russian invasion, frankly, a year ago. And also a deeply problematic geopolitical summit, in the sense that it goes strongly against the interests of the United States and all of its allies. Let's keep in mind this summit comes on the back of the International Criminal Court, that is recognized by 123 countries around the world, though not by Russia, the U.S. or China, declaring that Putin is a war criminal and that he should be arrested by any member state if he travels there. Indeed, the German government's already announced, if Putin were to go to Germany, that's it, they're arresting him. Never going to happen. But nonetheless, on the back of that, and then Putin's trip to Crimea and his trip to Mariupol occupied Ukrainian territory over this weekend. Mariupol, first time, he's been in territory the Russians have taken since February 24th.
All of that obviously told to Xi Jinping before the trip was being made. And now, you see these two men, these two authoritarian leaders side-by-side on a global stage. And by far, the friendliest meetup they have had, since February 4th, a year ago when Putin made that trip to Beijing during the Olympics, and they declared that they were friends without global limits. This is very different from what we saw from Putin and Xi Jinping the last time they met in-person back in September. That was in Samarkand. It was the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. That was where Putin was on the back foot, he had lost a fair amount of territory from a Ukrainian counteroffensive. His military was underperforming. And indeed, Putin had to publicly recognize that the Chinese had concerns about the Russian War in Ukraine. He's not recognizing that right now.
In fact, what Putin and Xi Jinping are talking about is an opening of negotiations with the Ukrainians, that the Ukrainians are not prepared to accept the potential of a ceasefire on Ukraine, which would allow the Russians to keep the territory they've occupied right now, which the Ukrainians, of course, would not accept.
This is Putin feeling much more comfortable about his geopolitical alignment, at least as far as China is concerned. And that's his most important, most powerful friend on the global stage. Why is that happening right now? Well, number one, it's a bookend to what happened just a couple of weeks ago when Xi Jinping in Beijing was an unprecedented fashion, making comments against the United States, saying that, "Confrontation would come if the U.S. maintained its position of attempting to contain China." We've not seen Xi Jinping call out the Americans directly like that, since he came to office for the first time a decade ago. So he's unhappy with his role vis-a-vis China. That was particularly true when the Americans came out publicly with intelligence that showed that the Chinese were negotiating to provide direct military equipment to Russia, the U.S., the UK and NATO all publicly disclosing that information and warning the Chinese that sanctions would, come direct sanctions if they were to proceed with it.
In other words, exactly the way the Americans treated the Russians with the intelligence they had before the invasion into Ukraine. The Russians denied that invasion. The Chinese denied that they were sending any weapons to Russia. The intelligence seems very hard from what I've heard from a number of actors that have seen it. The point is that the Chinese really didn't like being treated the same way that the Americans were treating the Russians. Of course, in part, that's driving them into a more public relationship with Putin that is warmer and friendlier. At the same time, China also sees, believes that time is increasingly on Russia's side. They don't want their friends, the Russians, to lose this war, but they also see divisions, especially in the United States with Republicans trying to run for the presidency. People like Trump, in particular, but also to a degree, DeSantis and others that are trying to caution against the level of support the Americans are presently providing to Ukraine. And something that the Chinese, of course, would like to see the back of.
So for all of these reasons, this Xi Jinping visit to Russia is a very big deal. I don't believe that the Chinese will actually start providing weapons to the Russians, at least not unless the Russians start performing very, very badly indeed on the ground. So, we'll watch and see how the counteroffensive goes in the coming weeks. I expect the Ukrainians will grab at least some ground, because the issue of the artillery that they've desperately needed, the ammunition appears to have been resolved by the United States and its allies. That should allow the Ukrainians to start a significant counteroffensive in coming weeks. But it also means they need to take a lot of territory back, because otherwise the potential that U.S. support will start to weaken as we get towards 2024, that the US will be more divided and the Europeans will become more divided on the back of that.
That is a big concern, indeed. Now, the big question for the next 24 hours is, will China directly call for a ceasefire and will the Russians support that? I think it is possible. Let's keep in mind that Xi Jinping and Putin are not constrained by checks and balances, by separation of power, by rule of law, which doesn't exist in their country. So if Putin, Xi Jinping individually decide that's what they want to say, they can and they will. The Ukrainians, of course, will have a very hard time with that. They'd have a hard time with calling for negotiations. Let's also keep in mind that while Xi Jinping has a three-day state visit to Russia, they have not yet announced a date for even a phone call, a video call with the Ukrainian President, Zelensky. So while Ukraine is being careful in what he's saying about the Chinese publicly, he absolutely knows that China is playing ball here for the Russians. There is no honest broker, in terms of China's interests in bringing this war to a close.
So Ukraine's in a bit more of a challenging position today, than they were a week ago. Russia certainly feeling stronger than they were a week ago. China feeling on the back of this peace breakthrough that they have resolved with the Saudis and the Iranians, that the Americans were no part of. Now, Xi Jinping is in Moscow, not the message that if you are a NATO country, you want to be seeing coming out of the Kremlin right now.
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Image released by the Ministry of Defence of Britain shows file video of UK's Challenger 2 tanks.
What We’re Watching: Tank talks for Ukraine, South Africa’s military moves
Much ado about tanks for Ukraine
For months, Ukraine has been asking its NATO friends for modern tanks. Not Soviet-era relics from Poland, not light armored vehicles from the US and France, but heavy mechanized tanks to fight mighty Russia. But so far, only the UK has agreed to supply Kyiv with Challenger 2 tanks, which are 20 years old but the model most used by the British army. Why? The US, the big boss of NATO, has been slow-walking the Ukrainians on their demand for tanks because the Biden administration fears it might push Russia to escalate. Washington is also citing logistical and maintenance costs as part of the reason for not doing so. Germany, meanwhile, won’t send Leopard tanks — or allow other countries to send German-made tanks — until the US makes the first move by sending M1 Abrams tanks. While the Germans and the Americans try to iron out their differences, NATO defense ministers will likely press the issue on Friday when they meet US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin in Germany. Russia, for its part, has already warned the West that giving Ukraine tanks would be a very bad idea.
Meanwhile, check out our GZERO field piece on how the tankless Ukrainians are making do with Mad Max-style killer dune buggies.
South Africa to conduct military drills with … Russia and China
In a massive blow for Washington, South Africa announced on Thursday that it will conduct joint naval drills in the Indian Ocean next month with two of the US’ foes: China and Russia. The three states last conducted a joint military venture in 2019. This announcement comes as the US is aggressively trying to woo South Africa, and offset Beijing and Moscow’s growing clout in the country – and the region. Indeed, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is also visiting Pretoria this week in hopes of boosting bilateral trade and investment. Crucially, the military venture (Feb. 17-27) will coincide with the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While South Africa says its stance on the conflict is “neutral,” it has refused to back US-sponsored resolutions at the UN condemning the Kremlin’s actions. That’s in large part because President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress Party has longstanding ties with the former Soviet Union. Meanwhile, South Africa-China trade continues to surge. The US, however, still has its work cut out for it in convincing African leaders that its interests go beyond simply trying to counter rivals’ influence in the region.
Kevin Rudd: Xi thinks Putin is a "dummy"
Australia's former PM believes that the once-blossoming bromance between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin has turned toxic. Why? You guessed it: Russia's war in Ukraine.
China's leader thinks Putin is a "dummy" for launching a "halfcocked" invasion that neither the Russian military could pull off nor the Russian economy afford, Rudd — also president and CEO of the Asia Society — says during a conversation with Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer at the Asia Society's HQ in New York.
While Xi won't break ranks in public, Rudd adds that in private, he’s "crab-walking away from 100% endorsement" of Russia, as we saw at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan.
As for whether China can deter Russia from using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Rudd says Xi has been clear: don't do it, Vladimir.
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China-Russia relationship status: It’s complicated
The presidents of China and Russia will meet in person this week for the first time since early February, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine. Back then, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced in Beijing a bilateral friendship "without limits." Seven months later, the relationship has strengthened but also seen trouble — and this is likely to continue.
Xi — on his first trip outside China since early 2020 — and Putin will hang out in the Uzbek city of Samarkand for the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China-led regional bloc initially set up to fight Islamic terrorism across Central Asia. But the agenda will mainly focus on Ukraine, common grievances with the West, and further deepening bilateral ties on things like a mammoth pipeline that’ll pump Russian natural gas to China via Mongolia.
When the famously stone-faced Xi and always-smirking Putin "smile" for their photo-op, they'll put on a brave face. The two want to appear as BFFs standing strong and tall against America and its allies — a bulwark of resistance to the US-led liberal international order that won't give them a fair shake. Their handshake will dominate state media in Beijing and Moscow, and it will raise the usual alarm bells in Washington.
In private, though, Xi is anything but pleased. We'll never know whether Putin told Xi in February he'd already decided to invade Ukraine, but China’s leader likely expected a swift campaign that wouldn't give the US or its NATO allies time to respond.
"Obviously, the war hasn't gone the way that Russia intended or the way that China expected," says Eurasia Group senior analyst Ali Wyne. The longer it drags on, and China stays non-committal about Russian aggression, the further it'll strain Beijing's already-fraught relationships with its top trading partners in the West.
What’s more, both Xi and Putin have a lot going on these days. Xi is freaking out about China's economy, which is in the doldrums thanks in no small part to his stubborn refusal to relax the zero-COVID policy. Hardly the rosy outlook he was hoping for just one month before the 20th Communist Party Congress, where Xi will get a norm-defying third term as CCP secretary-general.
Putin, for his part, is losing Russian-held territory to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, bracing for a G7 cap on the price of Russian oil, and facing rare internal pushback. The "special military operation" is not going according to plan — to the point that Putin might soon need to admit it's actually a "war".
Personality matters, too. Like classic Bond villains, the two autocrats would rather jump out a window than admit to being wrong and reverse course for fear of appearing weak or losing face with their people. This rigidity extends to foreign policy, where Wyne says that Xi has boxed himself in with Taiwan much as Putin has with Ukraine.
Xi might not be happy with the current state of the relationship, but he knows that China and Russia now need each other more than they have in decades. And while Putin is a lot needier — especially to sell Russian oil and gas in roubles and yuan — Xi has invested so much politically in their bromance that China is stuck in a toxic relationship it can’t escape.
So, how might the China-Russia friendship evolve in the near future? Expect it to get stronger but even more complicated, since Beijing and Moscow are as nervous about Western opposition as they are suspicious of each other.
For instance, Russia frets about China's growing security clout among the Central Asian republics, part of the former Soviet sphere of influence. Interestingly, the Xi-Putin meeting is taking place in Uzbekistan, one of the ‘Stans that Wyne says is getting cold feet about dealing with Moscow after witnessing Russia's brutality in Ukraine. Putin has responded to Beijing's charm offensive by reaching out to India, China's strategic rival and eager to play a bigger role in Central Asia.
Still, Xi and Putin will continue going steady because neither can afford to part ways with the other.
"China is wary of throwing Russia under the bus," says Wyne. If Beijing abandons Moscow, it really has no on other major powers to turn to. "That scares China," which is doubling down on the Russian friendship out of anxiety, not confidence.
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California’s dystopian heatwave
Californians are bracing for mass power outages as the state of 40 million people suffers a record-breaking heatwave with temperatures in the triple digits. With residents cranking up air conditioners, state authorities say energy use statewide is hitting record levels. (The power grid is under added pressure because of the extreme heat, which makes power transmission less efficient.) Meanwhile, California’s independent grid operator called for energy rationing between 4 and 9 pm, advising residents to turn up their thermostats and avoid using energy-intensive equipment like dishwashers and washing machines. Indeed, the heatwave and energy crunch indicate that extreme weather events linked to climate change are pummeling countries in the developing and developed world alike. (With a GDP of $3.4 trillion in 2021, California’s economy is the largest in the US, surpassing countries like India and France.) As several wildfires broke out in Southern California in recent days, Governor Gavin Newsom warned that “we’re heading into the worst part of this heat wave.”