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Xi invites Putin to China to strengthen "no limits" partnership
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Putin's upcoming visit with Xi Jinping signal a continuing “no limits” partnership between China and Russia?
The relationship is certainly becoming more strategic over time. Not so much because the Russians are changing their behavior. They have very few options at this point. North Korea and Iran are their top allies. Belarus, Syria. I mean, it's a rogues’ gallery, but China is increasingly finding that their ability to work long term in a stable and sustainable way with America's allies in Asia, with the Europeans, and with the United States itself becoming more constrained. And given all of that, willingness to be a closer ally with Russia is increasing over time. Just look at Biden putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. All of this is sending a message to the Chinese that no matter who's elected in November, that the US is trying to contain them. And yeah, I think longer term, the more they see that from the US and their allies, the closer with the Russians they will eventually be.
Why is Europe alarmed with Georgia's “foreign agents” law?
Well, here it's because this is a law. that is, in principle. nothing wrong with it. In principle, just talking about publishing those NGOs, those organizations that get at least 20% funding from external sources. In reality, it's being put in place by a bunch of political leaders that are aligned with Russia. It is almost identical to Russia's own foreign agents law, and it has been used in Russia to chilling effect, to shut down anything that feels like pro-Western democratic opposition in government institutions that in Russia are authoritarian and Georgia are leaning more authoritarian. Keep in mind, this is a Georgia that has constitutionally enshrined that they want to join the European Union and NATO. But the reality is that political officials are moving farther away from that. Big, big demonstrations and potential for violence on the ground in Georgia going forward.
How will Biden respond if Israel continues to push into Rafah?
Well, he said it's a red line, but ultimately it's going to feel like as much of a red line, I suspect, as Obama was on Syria. Yes, they will reduce some level of offensive weaponry that can be used by Israel, in Rafah. But the reality is they're going to keep providing intelligence, keep providing the vast majority of the defense spending that Israel gets from the United States and the weaponry. And there are a lot of members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, that are really upset about the idea of suspending any support to Israel and are moving to try to block Biden legislation, which means he has to find a compromise with them in an election year. All of this puts him firmly in no man's land on the Israel-Palestine issue, not where Biden wants to be.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- The limits of a China-Russia partnership ›
- Tbilisi clashes: Georgia government pushes "Russian" bill risking EU candidacy ›
- Russia invaded Georgia too, and it never left ›
- Biden threatens to cut off some weapons to Israel if Rafah invaded ›
- Putin needs Xi to win the war in Ukraine ›
- All eyes on Russia ahead of Putin-Xi meeting ›
Putin needs Xi to win the war in Ukraine
David Sanger, Pulitzer prize-winning New York Times journalist and author of "New Cold Wars," discusses the evolving relationship between China and Russia, highlighting its asymmetry and significance in today's geopolitical landscape. He points out how much the tables have turned. During the Cold War of the 20th Century, the Soviet Union was the dominant power when it came to its relationship with China. Decades later, it's clear that China holds the upper hand. "China holds more cards than the Russians do," Sanger tells Ian Bremmer. Not only that, Russia's Vladimir Putin needs China's Xi Jinping by his side in order to prevail in his war with Ukraine. "He [Putin] needs that Chinese technology desperately... He does not have a choice except to deal with the Chinese on Chinese terms right now."
And what does that mean for China's interests when it comes to the United States? "If you're Xi," Sanger says, "the two best things that can happen to you is that the US is tied up in Ukraine or ripping itself apart about the aid and consumed again in the Middle East." And at least in that respect, Xi seems to be getting everything he wants.
Watch Ian Bremmer's full interview with David Sanger on GZERO World - Are we on the brink of a new cold war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
- The biggest threats to US national security, foreign and domestic ›
- The next era of global superpower competition: a conversation with the New York Times' David Sanger ›
- The limits of a China-Russia partnership ›
- Will China end Russia’s war? ›
- Xi’s “peace” plan for Ukraine: China “wins” ›
- Russia & China vs “the West” ›
- Xi invites Putin to China to strengthen "no limits" partnership - GZERO Media ›
Former United States President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at Mar-a-Lago in 2020.
What We’re Watching: Bolsonaro skipping town, Putin’s New Year’s gift, Vietnam’s growth, a bit of Xi & Putin face time
Bolsonaro takes off, Lula takes charge
On Sunday, left-wing former president Luiz "Lula” Inacio da Silva will once again be sworn in as Brazil’s president, a post he last held from 2003 to 2010. Hundreds of dignitaries will attend the ceremony in Brasilia, save for one very important person: Brazil’s outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro. The right-wing incumbent will be spending New Year’s Eve in Florida with someone who loves him — former US President Donald Trump. What signal does this send? Bolsonaro has suggested that the bitterly fought election against his nemesis Lula was unfair, and he has done little to stop his supporters from protesting to that effect, sometimes violently. Will his decision to skip the festivities quell concerns about a possible January 6 event in Brazil, or will his supporters read his decision to watch from Mar-a-Lago as a signal that the entire inauguration is illegitimate, fueling more anger as Lula takes power? Ever since the election, Bolsonaro and his team have been in close touch with Trump about next steps. On Sunday, we’ll be watching Lula, of course, but we’ll also be watching Bolsonaro’s supporters watching him watching Trump.
Putin tries again to freeze Ukraine over
Russia launched a huge attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure Friday, using cruise missiles and drones to target power stations and other facilities across the country. Although Ukraine said it had managed to shoot down most of the Kremlin’s missiles, a number of facilities still suffered damage. Just days before the New Year’s holiday, Putin is intensifying his strategy of trying to freeze Ukraine into submission (see our recent interview with an undaunted young woman in Kyiv). Meanwhile, to Ukraine’s north, Belarus said it had shot down a Ukrainian air-defense missile that had strayed across the border. Belarusian authorities gave no indication that they considered it an attack on their territory. As Ukraine remains under aerial attack, this is the second time in the past six weeks that a Ukrainian air defense missile has strayed — in mid-November one landed in a Polish border town, killing several people and briefly stoking (unfounded) fears that Russia had deliberately targeted a NATO member.
Vietnam’s GDP boom
While many countries are experiencing growing pains, Vietnam’s gross domestic product rose by 8.02% in 2022, the fastest growth rate in Asia. This was in large part due to a strong performance in the final quarter of the year. For context, GDP growth in China, Japan, and Thailand this year is slated to hit 3%, 1.7%, and 3.2% respectively. While China’s manufacturing capacity was hindered by Beijing’s relentless zero-COVID policy, Vietnam's manufacturing juggernaut has expanded, growing by more than 8.1% year-on-year. Still, as global inflation remains high and fear of recession looms, there are already signs that Vietnam’s export-reliant economy could face tougher times in 2023. While global exports are up in 2022, demand is likely to slump next year as a result of central banks’ belt-tightening. Asian economies, particularly in southeast Asia, have benefited greatly from ongoing tensions between the US and China, with both major economies boosting trade with this bloc since 2018 when the tit-for-tat trade war began.
Xi and Putin’s Friday coping session
“Hey, how’s it going?” “Dunno man, I’ve been better.” “Yeah, I feel you…” That’s about how we expected things to go between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during their video chat on Friday. It’s been a lousy few weeks for both of the bigtime strongmen, as each grapples with his own grim war of choice: Xi’s with the coronavirus after lifting his quixotic “zero-COVID” policy, and Putin’s with … well you know about that. It’s not clear how much each man can do to help the other right now — Russia doesn’t have enough vaccines ready for China even if Beijing wanted them, and Xi can’t do much more to help Russia’s army or economy without provoking China’s main economic partners in the US and Europe. Still, sometimes it’s nice to have someone to commiserate with — talking is good. We understand the duo discussed strengthening relations.Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China February 4, 2022
What We're Watching: Putin-Xi meeting, Brussels vs. Budapest, Sweden's next government, Japanese yen in trouble,
Putin hears out Xi on Ukraine, blasts “unipolar” world
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in person on Thursday for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Russian leader said he valued the “balanced position” Beijing has taken over Ukraine, noting that he understood Xi’s “concerns” about how the war is going (not well). But since there’s no way the Russian president will reverse course in Ukraine, he took the opportunity to play his greatest hits, railing against US-led efforts to create a “unipolar” world that leaves both Russia and China out to dry. Putin might consider what a US Senate committee did Wednesday an example of that. It advanced a bill that would for the first time authorize providing $4.5 billion worth of direct US military aid to Taiwan. The proposal still needs to pass the Senate, and the White House is not fully on board. But if it becomes law, Beijing will likely see this as a de facto change in US policy toward Taiwan. Since 1979, Washington has sold Taiwan weapons to defend itself against a Chinese invasion that was considered a long shot just a decade ago. Not so much now — which explains why the US is mulling preemptive sanctions to deter Xi.
Will Brussels freeze out Budapest?
The European Union’s executive reportedly plans to recommend withholding billions of dollars in funds to Hungary due to alleged corruption by the Hungarian government. What’s more, in a symbolic vote on Thursday, the European Parliament declared Hungary a “hybrid electoral autocracy,” a scathing condemnation of PM Viktor Orbán’s leadership. Brussels and Budapest have long been on a collision course over the latter’s erosion of democratic norms since Orbán’s conservative Fidesz Party came to power in 2012. Hungary is hoping to unlock more than 40 billion euros of EU funding over the next five years, but the EU alleges that Budapest has failed to reform its public procurement process, which undermines competition and favors government allies. If Brussels follows through, it would send a worrying message to other rogue EU states – like Poland – that have been at loggerheads with Brussels over rule-of-law issues. A final decision will be released Sunday and would need to be passed by a majority of member states to take effect. Orbán, who has long relished his reputation as an anti-EU warrior, has reason to worry given that annual inflation in Hungary hit a whopping 15.6% in August and the currency continues to depreciate.
Sweden’s next government
Magdalena Andersson resigned as Sweden’s prime minister on Thursday following a narrow election defeat for her center-left bloc last weekend. Her Social Democrats – which have dominated Swedish politics for nearly a century – remain the country’s largest party, but it’s bloc politics that matter most, and the parties of the right have proven more unified than those of the left. Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson will now try to form a government. Controversies over immigration policy, price inflation, and rising crime have increased support for a bloc of conservative parties that also includes the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, which have used the promise to “make Sweden safe again” to stride from the wings to center-stage in Swedish politics. It remains unclear how large a role the Sweden Democrats might play in a Kristersson-led government. Following elections four years ago, it took four months for Andersson to form a government. But Kristersson will begin coalition talks at a moment of national urgency as the country battles an economic crisis and prepares to enter NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Anti-immigration policies can limit the size of the potential workforce, pushing wages higher. So, the big question will be how conservative parties that are primarily pro-business will bargain with the anti-immigration nationalists of the Sweden Democrats, now the country’s second-most popular party.
Japanese yen drops, further weakening Kishida
Things aren’t going well for Japan’s government. The Japanese yen has continued to drop against an increasingly strong US dollar in recent months, falling to a 24-year low on Thursday. The government, meanwhile, says it has not ruled out intervening to try to prop up the ailing currency, though Tokyo also acknowledged that the effect of such a move would be minimal, in large part because of the significant interest-rate gap between the United States and Japan. While Washington has steadily been raising interest rates to curb inflation, Tokyo has kept rates ultra-low in line with its long-held view that a weak currency is good for exports. But current global inflationary pressures have revealed the vulnerabilities of this approach. This comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose disapproval rating recently reached 41%, the highest level since he took office a year ago. Kishida’s popularity has nosedived over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's ties to the controversial Unification Church following the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe. Moreover, the government’s decision to hold an expensive state funeral for the slain former PM on Sept. 27 has been broadly criticized.
Water is dropped near a fireman as the Fairview Fire burns near Hemet, California.
California scorcher, Gulf states threaten Netflix, potential Putin-Xi meeting
California’s dystopian heatwave
Californians are bracing for mass power outages as the state of 40 million people suffers a record-breaking heatwave with temperatures in the triple digits. With residents cranking up air conditioners, state authorities say energy use statewide is hitting record levels. (The power grid is under added pressure because of the extreme heat, which makes power transmission less efficient.) Meanwhile, California’s independent grid operator called for energy rationing between 4 and 9 pm, advising residents to turn up their thermostats and avoid using energy-intensive equipment like dishwashers and washing machines. Indeed, the heatwave and energy crunch indicate that extreme weather events linked to climate change are pummeling countries in the developing and developed world alike. (With a GDP of $3.4 trillion in 2021, California’s economy is the largest in the US, surpassing countries like India and France.) As several wildfires broke out in Southern California in recent days, Governor Gavin Newsom warned that “we’re heading into the worst part of this heat wave.”