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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin-Xi “friendship” threatens Arctic
A new report quoted in the Globe and Mail suggests how Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping’s “friendship without limits” is progressing: Russia is giving very generously in exchange for China buying its oil.
The report by Strider Technologies says China is gaining a major foothold in the Arctic as Russia shifts its defense priorities to the war in Ukraine. Since Putin’s invasion, 234 Chinese-owned companies have registered to operate in the Russian-controlled Arctic, Strider said, an 87% increase on the two years prior. Besides resource exploitation and investment aimed at developing Russia’s Northern Sea shipping route, the two have been deepening security ties in the form of joint exercises in the Bering Sea.
A report by Canada’s Senate Committee on national security, defense, and veterans’ affairs last year noted the worrying implications of increased collaboration in the Arctic by Russia and China.
Canada has committed to spending $38.6 billion over 20 years to modernizing the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, including investing in new over-the-horizon radar installations, and infrastructure to house the 88 F-35 Lightning fighter jets it has on order from the US.
In the first of its 23 recommendations, the committee called on the government to include an Arctic section in its imminent defense policy statement that recognizes the situation in the North is deteriorating and offers a plan to deal “on an expeditious basis” with threats that could enter North America through the Arctic.
FILE PHOTO: Donald Trump dancing during the campaign rally for the Republican primary for the 2024 American presidential election. Manchester (NH), USA, January 20, 2024.
For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024
In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”
That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.
The view from China: The prospect of a friendlier – or at least more transactional – US administration might be good news for cross-strait relations in the short term. There's no point in rocking the boat in a way that might hurt either Trump’s prospects or what trust Beijing has built with the Biden administration over the last year (Joe Biden, after all, could win too).
Beijing isn’t alone in recognizing that a little patience could pay big dividends after November. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel would have carte blanche under Trump 2.0.
“Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas,” he said. “If Trump [were] in power, the US conduct would be completely different.”
The view from the Kremlin is just as rosy. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been arguing for months that Vladimir Putin is waiting for Trump to be re-elected to sue for peace in Ukraine because of how destabilizing another dose of Trump will be to NATO. Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daaldermade a similar argument last week. And Trump did tell European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO” in 2020.
GZERO also has its eye on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and Trump left it in a bad place after their whirlwind romance in 2018 … but who knows what another love letter might spark?
William Lai (Lai Ching-Te), the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has just been elected President of the Republic of Taiwan, succeeding outgoing President Tsai Ing-Wen. They celebrate the victory on stage at their party headquarters, with his running mate Hsiao Bi-Khim.
Lai won in Taiwan, but Xi isn’t losing his cool
Taiwan may have elected pro-independence candidate William Lai as its next president, but the result wasn’t the worst news Beijing expected.While Lai secured a decisive win with a seven percentage point lead over his next nearest rival, his party did not fare as well. Dissatisfaction with rising house prices, stagnant wages, and shrinking job opportunities lost the party favor with young voters. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, failed to get a majority of seats in the legislature. Final results gave the Kuomintang 52 seats, the DPP 51, the Taiwan People’s Party 8, and independents 2.
Lai will thus have to compromise to pass legislation and cooperate with parties that are more favorably disposed to Beijing, potentially toning down his anti-China rhetoric. That could preclude the need for a show of military might by Beijing, a relief for investors who feared the economic impact of such a move, as well as for Western nations that have zero interest in another front opening up in Asia while they’re busy with Ukraine, Israel, and the Red Sea.
But don’t expect a kumbaya moment. In an article to be published Tuesday in Qiushi, a magazine of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, Chinese President Xi Jinping sets out Beijing’s strategy: “Develop and strengthen Taiwan’s patriotic, reunification forces. Oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities, and promote its complete reunification with the motherland.”
In other words, do more of what China has been doing for the past few decades – and during the recent vote: co-opting politicians, disinformation campaigns, political persuasion, and other “soft power” weapons will be deployed apace. Already, Beijing can chalk up one win: The Pacific island nation of Nauru announced this week that, “in the best interests” of the country and its people, it would cut ties with Taiwan and seek full resumption of diplomatic relations with China. The United States, the ally that really matters to Taipei, maintains that its support for Taiwan’s status remains “rock solid.”
When Biden met Xi (and what's going on with the US and China) | TED
Better or Worse? What happened when two frenemies -- China's President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden -- met at the APEC Summit in San Francisco? Did the two superpowers move closer to conflict or actually get something positive done? What will make a difference? Ian Bremmer was in San Francisco and took in the big event, and he sits down for an exclusive conversation with GZERO's new partner, TED, to explain what it all means.
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FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022.
Biden and Xi meet again
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden will meet face to face tomorrow in San Francisco in the hopes of salvaging their countries’ crumbling relationship.
The two had the same goal when they met on the sidelines of the G20 last November. But after China floated a spy balloon into US airspace, the rest of the year consisted of retaliatory trade restrictions on technology and critical minerals, Chinese raids on US companies, and increasingly frequent “risky intercepts” between military forces.
In short, we did not see a U-turn in tensions after last year’s meeting. So, will this year be any different? Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice, says that “Biden and Xi both seek to stabilize the relationship for their own reasons.”
Biden — who is already managing two conflicts and can’t risk another — hopes to restore high-level military and political communications. Meanwhile, China’s main concern is its economic slowdown and stopping the mass exodus of US companies since its raids earlier this year.
Waters expects progress on a fentanyl deal that would be key for Biden’s reelection campaign. The deal is still being finalized but likely entails Beijing cracking down on companies sending fentanyl’s precursor chemicals to Mexican cartels in exchange for the US lifting restrictions on China’s forensic police, which it has accused of human rights violations. The two are also expected to agree to see eye to eye on limiting AI in certain military contexts.
Taiwan could be next year's “spy balloon.” Both players maintain their contrasting positions on Taiwanese independence, so any progress in the decaying US-China relationship will be put to the test when Taiwan holds an election in January of 2024.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin hold a joint press conference after their talks in Seoul on Nov. 9, 2023.
Blinken comes home, Biden gears up for Xi
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken wrapped up a tour of Asian nations last week, as the United States worked to shore up support for its positions on issues including Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s increased belligerence toward Taiwan, and the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East.
On Thursday, Blinken met with South Korean officials including President Yoon Suk-yeol. The two countries reportedly aligned on their approach in the three arenas of conflict. According to South Korean intelligence reports, the matters are closely related. During a closed-door briefing to lawmakers last week, South Korea’s main spy agency said it believes that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un instructed officials to “comprehensively support” Palestinians and that the North could be considering selling weapons to terrorist organizations in the Middle East.
Then it was off to New Delhi, where Blinken and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with their Indian counterparts and engaged on a host of issues including a diplomatic dispute between India and Canada over the alleged assassination by Indian forces of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, and increased hostilities on the border of India and China.
Blinken’s tête-à-têtes came on the heels of the G7 summit in Tokyo on Nov. 7 and 8, where Japanese and British defense ministers reiterated their preference for a two-state solution in the Middle East. The G7 later issued a joint statement that also condemned “destabilizing activities” by Iran and called on Tehran to de-escalate tensions in the region.
Blinken’s tour comes ahead of the first meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in over a year, set for this week in San Francisco. While significant, expectations for agreement and action are low. “We’re not talking about a long list of outcomes or deliverables,” a senior administration official told reporters at a press conference last week. “The goals here really are about managing the competition, preventing the downside risk of conflict, and ensuring channels of communication are open.”
The two leaders’ agenda includes military communications, human rights, and the South China Sea. According to Eurasia Group Analyst Anna Ashton, much of the focus will be on Taiwan's presidential election, set for Jan. 13. “The candidate most likely to win based on current polling is Lai Ching-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party who draws support from Taiwan's most dedicated independence activists. That brings us to a second watchpoint in May, when Taiwan’s next president will be inaugurated,” says Ashton. And to another potential flashpoint for tensions between China and the US.
President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they meet on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14, 2022.
Viewpoint: Don’t expect too much from Xi-Biden meeting
Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are preparing for talks next week to stabilize relations between their two countries and prevent a dangerous flare-up of hostilities over Taiwan. The meeting represents the culmination of months of preparatory work by lower-level officials and is expected to take place on Nov. 14 or Nov. 15 on the sidelines of the APEC leaders’ summit in San Francisco.
At a time when wars are raging in Europe and the Middle East, any step toward reducing tensions between the world’s two leading military and economic powers will be welcomed. But given the fundamental differences between the US and China, how much can we really expect from next week’s meeting? We asked Anna Ashton, a director for Eurasia Group’s China practice, and Clayton Allen, a director for the United States practice.
Why is this meeting happening now?
Anna Ashton: When the two presidents met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali last November, it was clear they intended to take further steps to stabilize ties. The next one was meant to be a visit to China by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in February to prepare the way for another meeting between the two heads of state. But the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon over the US unexpectedly disrupted those plans. For Xi, the APEC summit – a gathering of the heads of state of 21 Asia-Pacific countries – represents a good opportunity to resume the dialog with his US counterpart. It will allow him (and also Biden) to demonstrate to other Asia-Pacific nations that they are managing bilateral relations responsibly. However, if diplomacy had not picked up in recent months, Xi might have opted to send another senior official in his stead.
Clayton Allen: The US push for diplomacy over the summer – which involved the visits of several cabinet officials to China and the creation of working groups to coordinate policies on various issues – was always intended to lead to higher-level engagement. The APEC summit offered a relatively low-stakes option for a meeting to move forward if sufficient diplomatic progress had been made. Put simply, both leaders already wanted to attend the summit, meaning a sideline meeting could be arranged more easily than a meeting in Washington or Beijing. More broadly, this meeting is happening because both sides see benefit in using a high-level meeting to confirm at least some of the progress made this summer in stabilizing the relationship.
What does Xi want from meeting?
Ashton: Xi is hoping to reassure China's neighbors that China is a responsible stakeholder in the region, a responsible power. His willingness to meet face-to-face with Biden in a US venue is an important signal. But the bilateral relationship remains fundamentally one between peer competitors – even adversaries. The room for tangible cooperation remains limited. Xi's expectations are likely modest.
What does Biden want?
Allen: Biden wants some reciprocal diplomatic effort from China, specifically the resumption of military-to-military communication, which China suspended in protest over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August when she was speaker of the US House of Representatives. (China considers such visits to what it views as a breakaway territory an affront to its sovereignty.) This, alongside the multiple working group and staff-level engagement frameworks announced since early August, would bring US-China relations back to roughly the same level they were at before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It would also create enough goodwill to avert a potential collapse in relations ahead of Taiwan’s January presidential election.
What are the best-case outcomes?
Ashton: Events on the calendar in 2024 could prove enormously disruptive to any progress made this year. Xi will likely use this opportunity to underscore China's top concerns with US policies. He will remind Biden of the importance Beijing attaches to Taiwan's eventual reunification with the mainland, stressing the damage that would be done to bilateral ties if the US moved away from its longstanding One China policy. He will also likely reiterate China's objections to the breadth of US tech restrictions. It is also possible that China will agree to take steps in support of US efforts to end the fentanyl epidemic. The best-case scenario is that the meeting helps to mitigate the potential for volatility in 2024.
Allen: The resumption of military-to-military communication, formalization of the working groups announced since August, and commitments to additional high-level meetings. Additional commitments from China to leverage its influence with the Global South in talks about the Ukraine crisis and efforts to contain the hostilities in the Middle East would be significant positive outcomes.
What are the next watchpoints for the bilateral relationship after this meeting?
Ashton: Taiwan's presidential election on Jan. 13. The candidate most likely to win based on current polling is Lai Ching-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party who draws support from Taiwan's most dedicated independence activists. That brings us to a second watchpoint in May, when Taiwan’s next president will be inaugurated. During the interim, between January and May, China will likely seek to dissuade the incoming president from adopting a more assertive independence agenda by conducting military maneuvers in the region. The final major watchpoint is the US presidential election in November. The lead-up to the vote is likely to feature heated rhetoric on China from both Republicans and Democrats.
Allen: Additional staff-level meetings. Leader-level meetings are essential to advancing efforts at stabilizing the relationship, but staff-level meetings are where the detailed work will happen. Historically, the US-China relationship has improved in the lead-up to leader-level meetings but declined soon after they have finished; staff-level engagement may mitigate some of this (potential) decline.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 6, 2023.
Are China-Australia ties boomeranging back?
Anthony Albanese is the first Australian prime minister to visit Beijing since 2016, as both sides signal their readiness to work on their long-running rift. At a meeting on Monday in the Great Hall of the People, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “the China-Australia relationship has embarked on the right path of improvement and development” after years of trade spats and accusations of political meddling.
As the satirical Australian series “Utopia” illustrates, Canberra has to walk a fine line. China accounts for over a third of Australian trade, and is willing to use that leverage in political disputes. In 2020, when then-Prime Minister Scott Morisson called for an investigation of China’s role in the origin of the COVID-19 virus, Beijing slapped import restrictions on Australian agricultural products. Those remain in place, despite the thaw.
Australians clearly feel threatened by China, after allegations of political interference led Canberra to ban foreign political donations in 2017 and Huawei communications technology in 2018. In a poll this year, 75% of the population say they see China as a military threat in the coming years.
The visit with Albanese seems further proof Beijing has accepted that its aggressive diplomatic tack in the late 2010s was unsustainable. It also bodes well for the summit between Xi and President Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting next week in San Francisco, though the Taiwanese elections in January still loom large in the US-China dynamic.