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FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump greets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 13, 2019.
Pressure builds on Ukraine
The most hotly debated question about a possible second Donald Trump foreign policy: Would he simply abandon Ukraine and its fight to repel Russian invaders? We might now have an answer.
Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán, a political ally of both Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, announced after meeting with Trump in Florida yesterday that the former president “will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war.” He told Hungary’s M1 TV channel that “if the Americans don’t give money, the Europeans alone are unable to finance this war. And then the war is over.”
Trump himself has yet to comment on this claim that he would end the conflict by forcing a Ukrainian surrender.
Putin has also added more pressure on Ukraine. On Monday, he called it “quite understandable” that Pope Francis has reportedly urged Ukraine’s leaders to find “the courage of the white flag” to negotiate with the Kremlin.
Does Ukraine have any cause for near-term optimism? Despite delays, a few trained Ukrainian pilots will likely have six US-made F16 aircraft ready to go by this summer. Their successful use against Russian forces could accelerate the pace of training and delivery. (A total of 45 F16s have been promised.)
These aircraft won’t win the war for Ukraine, but significant numbers of them will boost Ukraine’s offensive and defensive capabilities. The timing of their delivery is critical. You can read details on their possible battlefield importance here.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden attend a European Union summit in Brussels, Belgium February 1, 2024.
The EU stares down Orban
Serial political blackmailer Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, upset other EU leaders in December by vetoing a plan meant to provide Ukraine with a multi-year €50 billion EU aid package. The EU must, Orban insisted, pledge to revisit the plan each year the money was scheduled for disbursement – with any member retaining the right to veto the plan midstream.
This is money Kyiv needs to keep the lights on, and to pay pensions and salaries, as its war with Russia grinds on. Growing uncertainty over the future of US aid for Ukraine tied to America’s November elections added urgency to the request.
Leaders of the other 26 EU member states had decided that Orban wanted to use future veto threats to give himself more long-term negotiating leverage to win new EU concessions, and at a summit meeting on Thursday, they drew a line. Possibly in exchange for quicker disbursement of the remainder of €20 billion in EU funds already earmarked for Hungary – money currently locked up over corruption and human rights concerns – Orban accepted a plan that allows for future reviews of the Ukraine plan, but without a future veto.
In short, the EU played hardball, and Orban caved.
Venezuelan migrants are pat-down before boarding a repatriation flight as a part of an immigration enforcement process, at the Valley International Airport, in Harlingen, Texas, U.S. October 18, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela grabs Biden by the border, EU reaches deal on Ukraine aid, US strike on Houthi drones, Professional trust crisis, ICJ rules on Russia, Amelia Earhart found at last?
14: Venezuela has given the US 14 days to back off its “economic aggression,” or it will stop accepting deportation flights from the US carrying undocumented Venezuelan migrants. Washington has threatened to re-impose oil sanctions on Caracas after Venezuela banned the leading opposition candidate from running for president. But Venezuela is hitting Biden where it hurts: The migration crisis at the US southern border is becoming a major political liability for him, and Venezuelans are the third most common nationality of undocumented migrants apprehended.
50: The EU on Thursday reached a deal on an additional €50 billion in aid for Ukraine, breaking through a deadlock caused by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. "All 27 leaders agreed" on the support package, tweeted Charles Michel, the European Council president. Though Orbán is finally on board, it was not immediately clear what the Hungarian leader gained in exchange for abandoning his objections.
10: A US strike destroyed 10 Houthi drones in Yemen on Thursday, as Washington prepares to retaliate over a deadly attack on US forces in Jordan that the White House blamed on an Iran-backed coalition of militias. The US has repeatedly targeted the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in recent days in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
78: Who do Americans trust? Nurses, that’s who. A whopping 78% of respondents polled said nurses are honest and ethical, the highest of nearly two dozen professions. The bad news? That’s still down 7 points since 2019, amid a wider collapse of trust in all trades. The least trusted? No surprises here: members of Congress, with just 6% – lower than car salespeople! And just one profession is seen as more trustworthy than it was four years ago: Labor union leaders, who rose by one mere percentage point to 25% during that period.
7: After seven years, the International Court of Justice (yes the same court that is handling the Gaza genocide case) on Wednesday ruled that Russia violated a UN anti-terrorism treaty by supporting separatists in Eastern Ukraine, and a minority rights treaty by suppressing the Ukrainian language in Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014. But in a setback for Ukraine, which brought the case, the court declined to rule on Russian responsibility for downing the MH17 commercial airliner in 2014.
87: Here’s some good news about America’s most famous missing aviatrix: An explorer claims his sonar imaging technology has found and photographed the remains of Amelia Earhart’s plane, which went missing over the Pacific Ocean 87 years ago as she attempted to become the first female pilot to fly around the world. Not bad. Next up, we’d like to ask this explorer to find us Jimmy Hoffa.Dutch far-right politician and leader of the Freedom Party Geert Wilders gestures as he meets with party members after the parliamentary elections in The Hague, Netherlands, on Nov. 23, 2023.
Dutch voters take hard-right turn: Will more of the EU follow?
Wilders has long promoted anti-Muslim policies, including a ban on Islamic schools, Qurans, mosques, and the wearing of hijab inside government buildings. Wilders has now tempered these pledges, saying he will “continue to moderate” his policies as coalition talks resume on Monday.
Wilders’ Freedom Party is expected to obtain 37 seats in the 150-seat Parliament, which falls short of the 76 needed under the Netherlands’ proportional representation system to secure a majority of seats. He must cement alliances with enough other parties to do so, and his dance card includes the center-right New Social Contract Party, with 20 seats, as well as the right-leaning People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, aka VVV, which formed the previous government, now with 24 seats.
Outgoing VVV Prime Minister Mark Rutte says he will not join Wilders’ coalition but could back a “centre-right” government. NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt said he could not enter a coalition with Wilders unless he recanted the Quran and mosque ban. And Wilders wants to cut EU funding and promised a referendum on membership, while Omtzigt opposes a “Nexit.”
Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán toasted Wilder’s win, saying “The winds of change are here!” Far-right Flemish independence leader Tom Van Grieken, who is leading in the polls for Belgium’s June 2024 elections, also congratulated Wilders, saying “Parties like ours are on their way in the whole of Europe.”
But perhaps the most significant beneficiary could be Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National, who also cheered Wilders’ victory. Rassemblement National is leading opinion polls in France for next June’s elections to the European Parliament, with 28% of the vote compared to 19% for French President Emmanuel Macron’s party and its allies. A shift to the right could reverse the EU’s stand on policies related to climate action, EU reform, and weapons for Ukraine, while also impacting migration policies.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban attends the autumn session of parliament in Budapest, Hungary, September 25, 2023.
Viktor Orbán plays the ethnic card as part of his EU “schtick”
The Hungarian prime minister said Monday he’ll cut all support for Kyiv unless Ukraine addresses the grievances of ethnic Hungarians who live in the country.
Wait, there are Hungarians in Ukraine? Yes, roughly 150,000 of them, mostly in the far-Western region of Zakarpattia (Transcarpathia) along the Hungarian border. Before World War I, Zakarpattia was part of the Austro-Hungarian empire. After that it was kicked around between various powers — Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and the Soviet Union – before becoming part of independent Ukraine in 1991.
In 2014 — when popular protests ousted Ukraine’s pro-Russian president and Moscow illegally annexed Crimea — the new Ukrainian government cracked down on minority language rights in a clumsy effort to curb Russian influence. The measures affected Hungarians in Zakarpattia, creating grievances that Orbán is now exploiting.
Laments about the lost territories of “greater Hungary” are nothing new for the nationalist Orbán. But why is he suddenly losing sleep over the Transcarpathian Hungarians? The answer may have more to do with what’s happening in Brussels than what’s happening in Uzhgorod, the Transcarpathian capital.
For one thing, Hungary is perennially in danger of losing EU funds over Orban’s erosion of democratic norms, so he is always looking for leverage to stop that. Threatening to hold up EU support for Kyiv is a big pressure point and he knows it.
But this winter the European Union will also decide when to welcome new members and whether Ukraine should, at some point, be one of them. As part of that, the Union is drawing up new fiscal rules and may move to scrap the requirement of unanimous agreement by all 27 member states on key issues. Orban does not want that to happen, because it would vaporize his pull within the Union.
So alongside threatening to cut support for Ukraine, he’s also slow-rolling Budapest’s approval for Sweden to join NATO. It’s part of a pattern.
“It's basically blackmail,” says Mij Rahman, Europe director at Eurasia Group. “That's Orban's whole schtick in the EU now.”
What We're Watching: Orbán demands an apology, India and China escalate, UN Security Council membership change
Will Orbán loosen the reins? Back in March, Hungary's strongman prime minister Viktor Orbán irked the European Union when he used the coronavirus crisis to push through an emergency law that opened the way for him to rule by decree indefinitely. Critics saw the move – which granted Orbán unchecked power to suspend parliament, cancel elections, and jail people for five years if they spread misinformation about the pandemic – as evidence of Orbán's avowedly "illiberal" impulses. But with the outbreak on the wane in Hungary, the legislature – which Orbán's Fidesz party controls – has scrapped emergency decree. Orbán says that Brussels' opprobrium was unjustified – and called on both the EU and the "fake news" media to issue an apology. But there is in fact proof that Orbán's party used the emergency situation to legislate on issues that have nothing to do with the COVID crisis. Crucially, rights groups say that the government used the parliamentary hiatus to limit the rights of transgender people, as well as to stash documents related to a secret development project with China.
Sticks and stones will break my...border: As many as 20 Indian soldiers died on Tuesday in a snowy skirmish with the Chinese military in a contested part of the Himalayan Galwan Valley. Although no shots were fired – the brawl involved rocks and sticks – it's the most deadly border clash between the two nuclear armed Asian powers since 1967. Indian and Chinese troops have been facing off regularly for weeks now in a high-altitude game of cat-and-mouse with no immediate end in sight. Even neighboring Nepal has been drawn into the conflict over a new official map issued by Kathmandu that Delhi suspects Beijing helped redraw. China is unhappy about recent Indian infrastructure development in the region, including a road leading to an airport in Galwan which India argues is on its side of the Line of Control. The two old rivals already fought one brief war over the area in 1962 (China won). Military officials from both sides are meeting to de-escalate the situation.
UNSC campaign season: The race is on to secure the non-permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council now up for grabs. The UNSC, which has the power to authorize peacekeeping and impose sanctions, has five permanent members and ten non-permanent seats – five of which are elected each year by the full General Assembly. The seats are apportioned to specific geographic regions. Norway, Ireland and Canada are all the frontrunners for one of the seats. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has actively lobbied the Council's permanent representatives ahead of Wednesday's vote, while Ireland gave the World Health Organization, a UN body, a $10 million "gift," quadrupling its usual contribution. As the sole candidates in their respective categories, India and Mexico are all but guaranteed to pick up seats, while Kenya and Djibouti are battling it out for one seat designated for Africa.
Fallout From A Fake Democracy
Nine out of every ten Venezuelans live in poverty and the average Venezuelan has lost 24 pounds in the past year alone. This is not what democracy looks like.
In this week's show, Venezuela expert Moisés Naím explains how this oil-rich country fell so far and why, as a former government official himself, he takes that personally.
+Syria Attack(?) +Lula in Jail +Orban Wins again +The Zuck Stops Here