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An Israeli activist is seen recording illegal settlers driving past a village in Masafer Yatta in the West Bank, on October 28, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Israel arrests violent settlers, US House ends extended recess, Botswana eyes majority stake in diamond giant, & More
4: Israeli police arrested four Jewish nationalists Tuesday after dozens of them attacked Palestinians and set fire to property in the West Bank. The issue of settler violence in the region has grown over the last two years – in tandem with the war in Gaza – but has spiked further in recent weeks, as Palestinians have been taking to the fields to harvest olives.
54: Who wouldn’t enjoy an almost eight-week break? Well that’s just what members of the US House of Representatives have had, but they are finally returning from their 54-day recess to vote on a continuing resolution that will end the government shutdown. Expect a vote later today.
49: A Catholic mother in the Normandy town of Dozule claimed in the 1970s that she had seen Jesus (of Nazareth) not once, not twice, but 49 times. The Vatican disagrees, though, affirming today that reports of those sightings were not genuine. The last Vatican-confirmed Jesus sighting was in 2013, when his face reportedly appeared at a church in India.
14: Hungary has extended a profit-margin cap to 14 more consumer products, including apples and processed cheese, as inflation remains elevated. Ahead of next spring elections, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is increasingly under pressure from Peter Magyar, the popular Fidesz defector who is now leading him in some polls.
15%: Botswana is bidding to acquire a majority stake of the diamond giant De Beers, up from its 15% share of the firm. The southern African nation’s move is part of an effort to reverse the diamond industry downturn – read all about that here (and watch a video about it here).
In Hungary, Orbán's grip on power is slipping
So let's talk about what both leaders want to get out of the meeting. As with most things in Europe, Russia-Ukraine is going to be a really important talking point, but unlike most leaders in the EU, Orbán is not as keen to end the war. He is very keen to continue importing Russian oil. I think Orbán also wants to demonstrate to Trump that he and other leaders in Europe support Trump's agenda. They share his politics. They subscribe to his worldview and that they can be vectors of influence for Trump within the EU.As for Trump, the consummate deal-maker, he's very keen to sell more liquefied natural gas to Hungary.
But I'm actually a lot less interested in the White House meeting and a lot more interested in what Orbán is leaving behind in Budapest. Orbán is on the verge of losing everything. There's an election in April. And an upstart challenger, actually, one of Orbán's former closest allies, Péter Magyar, has created a new party and looks as if he may topple Orbán's regime.
So what is this challenge today for Orbán? He's faced many opponents before. But unlike those opponents, Péter Magyar also hails from the right. That makes it a lot harder for Orbán to knock him down and say he's a simple liberal and leftist. Magyar has also been able to expose all of the deep-seated economic challenges the average Hungarian is struggling with. Inflation, cost of living, these are issues the Orbán administration has not been able to address.
But think about what this moment means for Europe right now not just for Orbán himself. The far right is ascendant. In France and in Germany, the national rally, the AfD, they are biding their time, hoping that they're going to win power in the very near future. They're going to be looking at Viktor Orbán and his struggles and wondering is he the canary in the coalmine or is he yesterday's news about to fade into obscurity?
All of these ideas are going to be swirling around Viktor Orbán's mind as he meets the most prominent far-right populist Donald Trump in Washington today.
US President Donald Trump and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shake hands as they pose for a photo, at a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Orbán seeks Russian oil carveout from Trump, Nigerien uranium to pass through risky area, Israel hits southern Lebanon
MAGA’s European hero comes to Washington – with a mission
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will visit the White House today to try to convince US President Donald Trump to allow him to continue purchasing Russian oil despite new US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms. Oil refineries in China and India – the largest two buyers of Russian oil – are already exploring alternatives. But Orbán is hoping he can leverage his personal and ideological connection to Trump to gain a carveout. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russian pipelines for nearly 90% of its oil, though other non-Russian import routes via the Balkans are also possible. With the opposition surging ahead of next April’s election, there’s a lot on the line for Orbán. Will Trump give his mate a favor, or put his foot down?
Will Nigerien uranium reach Russia?
French officials believe Russian nuclear giant Rosatom struck a $170-million deal with the ruling military junta in Niger to purchase 1,000 tons of uranium from a mine formerly run by a French firm. The reported deal is the latest sign of Russia’s growing influence in the region, at the expense of the former colonial power, France. The greater concern with this purchase, though, could be that the uranium will have to pass through areas of Burkina Faso that are controlled by jihadist groups. Islamist militants are gaining momentum in West Africa – they have the Malian capital surrounded – sparking concern among governments in the region.
Israel attacks southern Lebanon
Israel temporarily breached its ceasefire deal with Lebanon on Thursday, issuing evacuation orders before bombing buildings in southern Lebanon it claimed were a part of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. One person was killed and three were injured, per media reports. The Israeli military said the strikes were due to Hezbollah rebuilding its military capabilities, despite the Lebanese government agreeing to disarm the group. Fears are rising in Lebanon that Israel may resume major airstrikes if Hezbollah doesn’t give up its weapons soon, but Lebanon's government worries about inflaming local tensions if they push Hezbollah too aggressively.
Spanish Vox party leader Santiago Abascal presided over the European Patriots Summit in Madrid over the weekend. The event brought together numerous conservative leaders from across Europe under the banner of "Make Europe Great Again."
From MAGA to MEGA? Europe’s far-right rallies in Madrid
Who are the Patriots and what do they want? Formed after the May 2024 European election, the bloc includes 86 members from 14 countries, representing 19 million votes. It is the third largest group in the 720-seat European Parliament, and it opposes green policies, migration, gender and family diversity, and “population replacement.” It wants to change the EU’s governance structure to one based on national sovereignty and boost Europe's economic competitiveness.
Could the Patriots make it happen? Other right-wing parties, including Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, or FI, Poland’s Law and Justice, and the German AfD have so far refused to join. However, in a letter sent in late January, the European Conservatives and Reformists group, home to Italian Prime Minister and FI leader Giorgia Meloni, urged the center-right European People’s Party to ally with the Patriots. And as tariffs loom, Le Pen claims that the group is the only one that can “talk with the new Trump administration.”
We’ll be watching whether the AfD or other parties change their tune about joining the Patriots – and how this impacts the EU’s ability to negotiate with Trump.Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), President of the European Commission, stands in the plenary chamber of the European Parliament and speaks while Vikor Orban (Fidesz), Prime Minister of Hungary, can be seen in the background.
Von der Leyen lays into Orbán over Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had strong words on Wednesday for Hungary’s strongman, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, about his close relationship with Russia. After listing a fiery litany of grievances over Hungary’s democratic backsliding and undermining of EU support for Ukraine, she addressed Orbán directly. “There are still some who blame this war not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom, so I want to ask them: Would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion in 1956?”
The powerful rhetoric aimed at painful memories of Soviet tanks crushing freedom fighters in Budapest’s burning streets. Orbán, who had just delivered a relatively meek address about his plans for Hungary’s six-month EU presidency, denied von der Leyen’s accusation and denounced her for using the EU executive as a “political weapon.” Some left-wing MEPs sang the anti-fascist anthem “Bella Ciao,” prompting the parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, to remind them “this is not Eurovision.”
Why did the gloves come off? Von der Leyen and her team of 26 commissioners are going before Parliament for confirmation hearings between Nov. 4 and 12. Parliament has taken von der Leyen to task in recent weeks for playing softball with Hungary and is preparing to sue the commission over its decision to unlock billions in frozen funds for Hungary last year. Taking Orbán to task might just be what she needs to smooth things over before the hearings.
We’re watching how her message plays, and whether Orbán might change his tune toward Russia — but we’re not holding our breath.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell attend the informal meeting of European heads of state or government, in Granada, Spain October 6, 2023.
Hungary’s rift with the EU: Losing host privileges amid Ukraine controversy
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced on Monday that Hungary, which holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, has lost the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defense ministers over its stance on the war in Ukraine.
The controversy: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and accused the EU of having a "pro-war policy,” spurring an uproar in Brussels.
Hungary is also upset about Ukraine’s decision last month to adopt sanctions blocking the transit of oil to Central Europe by Lukoil, sparking fears of supply shortages in Budapest. Hungary relies on Moscow for 70% of its oil imports — and on Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil firm, for half that amount.
Budapest responded to Borrell by announcing that it would not refund EU members any of the 6.5 billion euros they expected for transferring arms to Ukraine unless Kyiv allows oil shipments from Lukoil to resume to Central Europe.
Why it matters: Since Russia's invasion, member states that gave weapons to Ukraine have been able to ask for compensation for transferring munitions, giving Hungary monetary leverage to get the oil it wants. Hungary and Slovakia asked the European Commission on Monday to mediate with Ukraine, and the issue would go to court unless the EU executive body acts within three days.
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 13, 2019.
Donald and Viktor reunite at Mar-a-Lago
Former President Donald Trump is hosting Viktor Orbán at his Florida resort on Thursday, less than a week after the Hungarian prime minister made controversial visits to Moscow and Beijing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Orbán was in the US this week for the NATO summit in Washington. Though his country is a member of the alliance, Orbán — an anti-immigrant politician who’s extremely popular with the US right wing — is frequently at odds with the West. His amiable demeanor toward the Kremlin, opposition to providing aid to Ukraine, and antidemocratic tendencies have made him an outsider in NATO and the EU.
Trump, a well-known NATO skeptic, has a lot in common with Orbán: He’s nationalistic, isn’t a fan of sending assistance to Kyiv, and has been criticized for palling around with authoritarians like Putin. And Orbán has notably endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Their Mar-a-Lago rendezvous came after NATO leaders spent several days discussing how to defend Ukraine and democracy — and as President Joe Biden desperately tries to salvage his presidential campaign amid calls for him to step aside. The meeting is indicative of what a Trump victory in November might do to boost the global right.
We’ll be watching to see what details emerge from the meeting, and whether it offers more insights on Trump’s plans for US policy on Ukraine if he wins reelection.
Piers Cazalet, director of defense and security cooperation at NATO, downplayed the significance of the Trump-Orbán meeting in comments to GZERO Media on Thursday at an event on the sidelines of the summit in Washington. There are "32 allied leaders" in the US for the summit and “it’s normal” for them to have a “broad range” of meetings “across the US political spectrum,” Cazalet said, adding, “That’s what democracy is about.”
But Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski talked with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the summit for GZERO World and noted how Orbán’s rogue trips are in sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, which was on full display all week. Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO. Watch the interview here.
China's President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan disembark at Orly Airport, south of Paris, on May 5, 2024.
Xi goes on (short) European tour
This week marks President Xi Jinping’s first trip to Europe in five years. The Chinese leader will only visit France, Serbia, and Hungary – three countries where he’s likely to find the friendliest ears – and meet with EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade tensions and China’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine.
Xi, who landed in Paris on Sunday, will also have a tete-a-tete with Emanuel Macron for the second time in as many years. You’ll remember that the French president raised continental eyebrows last year with a state visit to Beijing, where he declared that Europe should not be drawn into a standoff between China and the US over Taiwan. Macron’s independent foreign policy approach left a positive impression on Beijing.
This time, the French leader is looking beyond tensions in the Taiwan Strait. He told The Economist that it’s “in our interest to get China to weigh in on the stability of the international order.” Xi seemed to agree, issuing a statement that Sino-French relations “have established a model for the international community of peaceful coexistence.”
The two will discuss trade and security, with France wanting increased access to the Chinese market for its agricultural exports and protection for intellectual property rights for the French cosmetic industry. Macron will reiterate that China should stop exporting dual-use goods that power Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But we’re not holding our breath for any positive signals on that since the Chinese leader will then visit Hungary and Serbia, two countries with close ties to Russia. Xi’s visit to Serbia will focus on deepening trade relations – and it happens to coincide with the 25th anniversary week of NATO’s fatal bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. In Hungary, Xi wants to cement his relationship with autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has stymied EU efforts to hold China to account on human rights issues.