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FILE PHOTO: Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attends her end-of-year press conference in Rome, Italy, January 4, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Meloni suffers Sardinian blow, Russia jails another critic, Japan’s baby bust continues, Big Oil pumps Big Money
0.4: The rugged island of Sardinia has dealt rightwing Italian PM Giorgia Meloni the first serious electoral blow she’s suffered since taking office in 2022. In local presidential elections (Sardinia has special autonomy from Rome, and its own president) a candidate from the left-leaning anti-establishment 5-Star Movement beat the Meloni-backed candidate by a mere 0.4 points. Alessandra Todde will now become not only Sardinia’s first female leader, but the first 5-Star member to head any of Italy’s 20 regions.
30: It must be election season in Putin’s Russia! Leading human rights activist Oleg Orlov was sentenced to 30 months in prison on charges that he had “repeatedly discredited” the Russian army by criticizing the invasion of Ukraine. During the sham proceedings, Orlov – whose Memorial human rights group shared a 2022 Nobel Peace Prize – sat quietly reading Kafka’s The Trial. In his statement to the court he said he regretted nothing, and asked the presiding judges “Aren’t you afraid?”
758,631: Last year only 753,631 babies were born in Japan, a fall of more than 5% from 2022, reaching a record low for the eighth straight year. The Japanese government is struggling to turn around a slow motion demographic crisis that could see the world’s fourth largest economy lose a third of its population in the coming decades, strangling the economy and straining social safety nets.
313 billion: It’s no secret that Big Oil isn’t a Big Fan of Joe Biden, whose climate agenda has antagonized the fossil fuel sector. But the industry can complain all the way to the bank these days: top US producers are on track for net income of $313 billion since Biden took office, triple what they made during the same period of the preceding Trump administration, which was overtly friendlier to the sector. The lesson? Presidents matter a lot less than pandemics and wars when it comes to energy sector profits.The beach, Red Sea State, Port Sudan, Sudan.
Sudan’s lost sea access worsens humanitarian disaster
Since fighting between rival military factions in Sudan erupted last April, nearly 8 million people have been displaced, and 24 million require urgent food aid. But the crisis now may begin to beggar description as the country loses access to its Red Sea coast and migrants stream across its borders.
Refugee influx. Over 400,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Libya, where they face long waits for registration, leading many to turn to smugglers to attempt dangerous Europe-bound sea crossings. Their first destination is Italy, with nearly 6,000 Sudanese refugees arriving there in 2023.
Numbers are expected to soar this year, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to urge support for investments designed to disincentivize migration. Meloni unveiled a plan last month to enhance energy cooperation with African states and assist them in areas including health and education, at a cost of 3 million euros annually for four years.
Impact of Houthi attacks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have cut off Sudanese ports and are disrupting aid shipments, forcing humanitarian agencies to reroute deliveries at significantly higher costs. Some shipments are delayed, others are stuck altogether, and still more face exorbitant air-freight costs. Aid workers describe the situation as "catastrophic" and fear mass starvation is imminent.Police close Lincoln Street leading to Schemengees Bar & Grille Restaurant after deadly mass shootings in Lewiston, Maine, U.S. October 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Mass shooter kills in Maine, Mexico slammed by sudden hurricane, UAW makes deal with Ford, South African miners resurface, and Meloni takes a breakup break
16: A man in Lewiston, Maine, killed at least 16 people and injured dozens more in two mass shootings last night at a restaurant and bowling alley. The killer remains at large, and authorities urge all residents to shelter in place.
165: Hurricane Otis barreled into southwestern Mexico on Wednesday with sustained winds of over 165 mph after a sudden intensification overnight transformed it into a Category 5 storm — and left authorities in Guerrero state with virtually no time to respond. Damage is expected to be severe, and experts at the National Hurricane Center said, “There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.”
25: United Auto Workers reached a tentative four-year deal with Ford on Wednesday that would, if approved by union members, mean a 25% salary boost in addition to cost-of-living raises. UAW advised members to return to work at Ford, which will pressure the other car brands involved in the six-week strike, GM and Stellantis, to follow suit.
107: More than 100 miners locked in a tense dispute between rival labor unions in South Africa’s Gold One mine have emerged from underground, where they had been trapped since Sunday night. Those who resurfaced confirmed that more of their colleagues are being held against their will by miners associated with the other union and that over a dozen people were injured in scuffles between the groups.
1: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took a personal day this week following her sudden breakup with television presenter Andrea Giambruno. Her partner of 10 years and the father of her seven-year-old daughter, Giambruno was caught on a hot mic bragging about a workplace affair while trying to pick up a third woman. Calling into a party conference, Meloni reminded Italians that “I, too, am human.”
The flags of Russia and North Korea.
Hard Numbers: North Korean arms to Russia, terror in Brussels, Meloni eyes tax cuts, pro-Russian Georgian politicking, Palestinian-American boy murdered
1,000: White House officials say North Korea has sent up to 1,000 shipping containers of “equipment and munitions” to Russia recently. Satellite images purportedly show clear evidence of Russian ships linked to military transport networks collecting the cargo – signs that Pyongyang is aiding Moscow’s war efforts.
2: Two Swedish nationals were killed in a shooting in Brussels on Monday. The attack in the Belgian capital took place during the Belgium-Sweden Euro 2024 qualifier soccer match, and play was subsequently halted. The gunman, who is believed to have been Tunisian, posted a video on social media claiming to have waged the attack in the name of God. He was shot dead by police late Monday.
24 billion: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni aims to cut taxes and boost public sector incomes next year, and her cabinet approved a budget on Monday to spend 24 billion euros ($25.3 billion) to make it happen. Meloni needs to boost growth and consumption quickly, before next June’s European Parliament elections, which could test her coalition government.
100: The Constitutional Court of Georgia found the country's pro-western President Salome Zourabichvili guilty on Monday of breaching the constitution by conducting visits with European leaders and lobbying for her country's membership of the European Union without government consent. While her opponents in the ruling Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia are unlikely to get the 100 votes they need to remove her, the president – who constitutionally represents the country in foreign relations – is expected to face intense pressure to resign, perhaps paving a route for a pro-Russian leader to take the helm.
26: As we’ve mentioned, the war in the Middle East has sparked an uptick in hate crimes around the globe. One of the latest victims was six-year-old Palestinian-American Wadea Al-Fayoume, from the Chicago area, who was stabbed 26 times on Saturday and died from his injuries. His mother was also stabbed and remains in hospital, and police have charged the suspect with murder and hate crimes.A member of the Carabinieri gestures towards migrants outside the hotspot, on the Sicilian island of Lampedusa, Italy, September 16, 2023.
Migration makes strange bedfellows of Germany and Italy
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said during a visit to Italy that both countries had reached the “limits of [their] capacity” to accommodate migrants, and called for “fair distribution” of the burdens of migration across the European Union.
The background. In just the last week, over 11,000 people have landed on the Italian island of Lampedusa. They’re part of the 127,000 migrants who have landed in Italy in 2023, more than double the number who had arrived by this point in 2022.
Under current EU asylum regulations, migrants are required to apply for asylum in the member state to which they first arrive. Should they, say, leave Italy to try their chances with Germany’s relatively generous system, they’re to be deported back.
But Rome has recently been refusing to accept back asylum-seekers who leave, citing the disproportionate influx. That caused a row with Berlin, which announced last week it would suspend a voluntary agreement to take in 3,500 asylum seekers who had landed in Italy — before suddenly reversing course.
The European Union received over 519,000 asylum requests between January and June, a 28% year-on-year increase and the most since 2016. Germany fielded 30%, about as many as France and Spain combined. That’s not counting over a million Ukrainian refugees whom Germany hosts, far and away the most in Western Europe.
So when Meloni says the rest of the bloc needs to share the burden, it resonates in Berlin. It’s also in the SPD’s interest to be seen taking a more proactive anti-immigration stance, as their conservative rivals have recently revived the idea of a national migrant cap. It’s part of a larger shift on migration politics in Germany, as even SPD’s left-wing allies in the Green party call for tougher migration standards faced with the ascendance of the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland.
Convincing the rest of the bloc to step up will be difficult. Since migration to Europe from Syria spiked in 2015, the EU has struggled to find consensus on bloc-wide immigration policies due to conflicting pressures in the politics of each member state.