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FILE PHOTO: French President Emmanuel Macron walks next to Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on the first day of the G7 summit, at the Borgo Egnazia resort, in Savelletri, Italy June 13, 2024.
Macron-Meloni spat spotlights Europe’s left-right divide
They’re calling it the death stare: In a clip that went viral, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was caught glaring at French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 summit late last week.
The two leaders clashed afterItaly demanded the removal of a specific reference to “safe and legal abortion” from the final G7 statement. When Macron told reporters he regretted the change,Meloni shot back, saying he was out of touch with his voters and accusing him of campaigning at the summit.
Both later downplayed the incident, but the “death stare” moment spotlighted an ideological divide that is central to the French election. The progressive Macron is fighting for his political life against the right-wing National Rally party of Marine Le Pen and her protege, Jordan Bardella.A left-wing coalition has now formed — including a surprise comeback for former President François Hollande — to prevent the right from taking power, but the polls still haveRN in the lead.
In an attempt to woo moderates and the financial sector, Le Pen now says she would work with Macron as president, a process known as “cohabitation,” in which each would control certain sectors of policy. We’ll know on June 30 whether voters – and investors – will be swayed.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks with Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, on the first day of the G7 summit at the Borgo Egnazia resort, in Savelletri, Italy, June 13, 2024.
G7 meeting: Ukraine and Meloni take center stage
Leaders from the G7 countries met Thursday in Italy’s Puglia region, where the future of Ukraine aid was high on the agenda
Who’s there? The meetings are hosted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is at the height of her political power after European Parliamentary elections last weekend. She stands in contrast to other G7 leaders from Canada, the US, the UK, Japan, and Germany, all of whom are on shakier ground domestically.
Meloni also invited an A-list of non-Western leaders like President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The highlights: Biden and Zelensky affirmed their partnership at a bilateral press conference. The group agreed to loan Ukraine $50 billion to rebuild its devastated infrastructure with the understanding it would be paid back by interest earned on the frozen Russian assets. They also passed a new round of sanctions aimed at countering China’s effort to remake Russia’s defense industrial base.
Looming over the group’s progress on Ukraine was the possibility that Donald Trump, who has spoken openly of pulling out of NATO and against further Ukraine aid, could be back in power by the time the group next meets in 2025. Several present — including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron — are facing elections that could redefine Europe.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomes European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at Chigi Palace, in Rome, Italy, January 9, 2023.
Unlikely allies: Von der Leyen and Meloni's potential partnership
As the dust settles from last weekend’s EU Parliament elections, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is holding all the cards, and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is preparing to kiss the ring.
The EU undeniably shifted right in the election, with support for Meloni’s right-wing coalition climbing to more than 47%. Meanwhile, for von der Leyen, the center held — but barely. Her coalition of mainstream parties won a narrow 400-seat majority, but with many threatening to defect, so she will need to pull votes from Meloni’s camp to secure the 361 votes she needs to win a second term as commission president on July 18. For Meloni, supporting von der Leyen could further cement her influence in Brussels.
These women aren’t diametrically opposed. While Meloni's party traces its roots back to a neo-fascist group, and her 2022 victory set the tone for far-right gains across Europe, she’s moderated her position on the international stage and dropped her previous anti-EU rhetoric. She is also a fervent Ukraine supporter, which could make her a key bridge to the far right for von der Leyen, who announced on Tuesday that the EU will send €1.4 billion to Ukraine and that it will begin accession talks this summer.
Meloni is gearing up to host the G7 meeting on Thursday, and Ukraine will top the agenda. We will be watching to see whether she and von der Leyen team up on securing more aid, which could signal a deepening partnership in parliament to come.
Marine Le Pen, president of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National) party parliamentary group, gestures during the party's campaign for the EU elections, in Paris, France, on June 2, 2024.
Viewpoint: Far right poised for gains in EU elections
Nearly 400 million people across the 27 countries of the EU will be eligible to vote from June 6-9 for members of the European Parliament. These representatives will serve a five-year term and be charged with passing and amending EU legislation. But their first order of business will be to elect the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive body. They will vote on a candidate proposed by the European Council, which comprises the EU heads of state or government, based on the parliamentary election results.
Amid intensifying economic concerns and longstanding fears of migration, far-right parties are expected to expand their parliamentary representation. We asked Eurasia Group experts Anna-Carina Hamker and Mujtaba Rahman why that is and what this strong showing could mean for EU policy and politics over the next five years.
What issues are shaping voter preferences?
Unsurprisingly, there is some variation across member states. According to recent Eurobarometer polling, security concerns are greater in eastern European countries that are closer to the war in Ukraine, whereas climate change and the economy top the list of concerns elsewhere. But broadly speaking, the economic situation, public health, the fight against poverty and social exclusion, and defense and security are key issues in most European countries.
Far-right parties appear poised for strong gains – why is that?
Amid sluggish economic growth and high inflation, policies to mitigate climate change and favor agricultural imports from Ukraine have prompted a public backlash to which established conservative and socialist parties have been slow to respond. The discontent spilled out into the streets earlier this year in a series of protests by farmers and truckers. Sensing an opening, far-right parties threw their support behind the protests and have seen their popularity soar.
A more structural factor of support for these parties is concern over migration, which really started to gain traction with the large flows of refugees fleeing the war in Syria in 2014. European countries have long histories of receiving migration but lack steering mechanisms such as functioning integration policies. Center-left and center-right parties have ignored the issue for decades, resulting in high levels of integration failure in European societies.
How big do you expect these gains to be, and what will be their impact on EU policy?
Far-right parties will likely expand their representation from less than 20% of seats to about 25%. Overall, that will not materially affect policymaking on key issues such as Ukraine, competitiveness, and enlargement over the next five years, which was already going to be difficult. But it will have an impact on the EU’s environmental agenda and its stance on migration. Far-right parties have already helped drive an overhaul of the bloc’s migration framework and dilute some aspects of the green agenda.
The next commission will have to tackle the next big phase of the green transition, which will involve more politically costly measures for households and firms to achieve net zero by 2050. Ad-hoc cooperation between centrist and right-wing groups on these issues will likely delay or dilute some of these measures. Nonetheless, it is unlikely to derail the EU's climate ambitions overall, as all the major party groups and the vast majority of national governments remain committed to meeting both the 2030 and 2050 goals.
What will be the consequences of these gains for domestic politics in prominent member states?
A strong result for the far right would likely have the biggest impact in France, where polling suggests that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party will outperform President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party. That would increase the odds of a successful censure motion against the government in parliament that would trigger early parliamentary elections. If Le Pen’s formation were to win half the seats in those elections (which is unlikely), that would force Macron to appoint her or someone else from her party as prime minister.
Meanwhile, a strong showing for Alternative for Germany would further fuel the debate about migration and give the party a boost ahead of important elections in three eastern German states in September and general elections next year. Similarly, a strong showing for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers party would reinforce its standing within the ruling coalition. Moreover, there is speculation that Meloni could offer her support for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for another term in exchange for a weighty portfolio in the next commission and policy concessions that would help Meloni’s domestic agenda.
What are the biggest policy challenges EU institutions will face in their next mandate?
Providing diplomatic, military, and financial support for Ukraine will remain a top priority for the EU, especially considering expectations of a weaker US commitment. A potential return to the White House by Donald Trump would create new difficulties for EU institutions, particularly on trade, as Trump would likely increase tariffs on European goods. Trade relations with China will also deteriorate as Brussels rolls out tariffs on electric vehicles and considers additional steps—and Beijing prepares retaliatory measures. Beyond these immediate challenges, Brussels faces the difficult task of doing more for its security by enacting more robust defense policies. Enlargement will be another important issue. Finding ways to shoulder the financial burden of welcoming new countries and tackling potential trade distortions that would affect some member states more than others will be among the priorities.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
FILE PHOTO: Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attends her end-of-year press conference in Rome, Italy, January 4, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Meloni suffers Sardinian blow, Russia jails another critic, Japan’s baby bust continues, Big Oil pumps Big Money
0.4: The rugged island of Sardinia has dealt rightwing Italian PM Giorgia Meloni the first serious electoral blow she’s suffered since taking office in 2022. In local presidential elections (Sardinia has special autonomy from Rome, and its own president) a candidate from the left-leaning anti-establishment 5-Star Movement beat the Meloni-backed candidate by a mere 0.4 points. Alessandra Todde will now become not only Sardinia’s first female leader, but the first 5-Star member to head any of Italy’s 20 regions.
30: It must be election season in Putin’s Russia! Leading human rights activist Oleg Orlov was sentenced to 30 months in prison on charges that he had “repeatedly discredited” the Russian army by criticizing the invasion of Ukraine. During the sham proceedings, Orlov – whose Memorial human rights group shared a 2022 Nobel Peace Prize – sat quietly reading Kafka’s The Trial. In his statement to the court he said he regretted nothing, and asked the presiding judges “Aren’t you afraid?”
758,631: Last year only 753,631 babies were born in Japan, a fall of more than 5% from 2022, reaching a record low for the eighth straight year. The Japanese government is struggling to turn around a slow motion demographic crisis that could see the world’s fourth largest economy lose a third of its population in the coming decades, strangling the economy and straining social safety nets.
313 billion: It’s no secret that Big Oil isn’t a Big Fan of Joe Biden, whose climate agenda has antagonized the fossil fuel sector. But the industry can complain all the way to the bank these days: top US producers are on track for net income of $313 billion since Biden took office, triple what they made during the same period of the preceding Trump administration, which was overtly friendlier to the sector. The lesson? Presidents matter a lot less than pandemics and wars when it comes to energy sector profits.The beach, Red Sea State, Port Sudan, Sudan.
Sudan’s lost sea access worsens humanitarian disaster
Since fighting between rival military factions in Sudan erupted last April, nearly 8 million people have been displaced, and 24 million require urgent food aid. But the crisis now may begin to beggar description as the country loses access to its Red Sea coast and migrants stream across its borders.
Refugee influx. Over 400,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Libya, where they face long waits for registration, leading many to turn to smugglers to attempt dangerous Europe-bound sea crossings. Their first destination is Italy, with nearly 6,000 Sudanese refugees arriving there in 2023.
Numbers are expected to soar this year, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to urge support for investments designed to disincentivize migration. Meloni unveiled a plan last month to enhance energy cooperation with African states and assist them in areas including health and education, at a cost of 3 million euros annually for four years.
Impact of Houthi attacks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have cut off Sudanese ports and are disrupting aid shipments, forcing humanitarian agencies to reroute deliveries at significantly higher costs. Some shipments are delayed, others are stuck altogether, and still more face exorbitant air-freight costs. Aid workers describe the situation as "catastrophic" and fear mass starvation is imminent.Police close Lincoln Street leading to Schemengees Bar & Grille Restaurant after deadly mass shootings in Lewiston, Maine, U.S. October 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Mass shooter kills in Maine, Mexico slammed by sudden hurricane, UAW makes deal with Ford, South African miners resurface, and Meloni takes a breakup break
16: A man in Lewiston, Maine, killed at least 16 people and injured dozens more in two mass shootings last night at a restaurant and bowling alley. The killer remains at large, and authorities urge all residents to shelter in place.
165: Hurricane Otis barreled into southwestern Mexico on Wednesday with sustained winds of over 165 mph after a sudden intensification overnight transformed it into a Category 5 storm — and left authorities in Guerrero state with virtually no time to respond. Damage is expected to be severe, and experts at the National Hurricane Center said, “There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico.”
25: United Auto Workers reached a tentative four-year deal with Ford on Wednesday that would, if approved by union members, mean a 25% salary boost in addition to cost-of-living raises. UAW advised members to return to work at Ford, which will pressure the other car brands involved in the six-week strike, GM and Stellantis, to follow suit.
107: More than 100 miners locked in a tense dispute between rival labor unions in South Africa’s Gold One mine have emerged from underground, where they had been trapped since Sunday night. Those who resurfaced confirmed that more of their colleagues are being held against their will by miners associated with the other union and that over a dozen people were injured in scuffles between the groups.
1: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took a personal day this week following her sudden breakup with television presenter Andrea Giambruno. Her partner of 10 years and the father of her seven-year-old daughter, Giambruno was caught on a hot mic bragging about a workplace affair while trying to pick up a third woman. Calling into a party conference, Meloni reminded Italians that “I, too, am human.”
The flags of Russia and North Korea.
Hard Numbers: North Korean arms to Russia, terror in Brussels, Meloni eyes tax cuts, pro-Russian Georgian politicking, Palestinian-American boy murdered
1,000: White House officials say North Korea has sent up to 1,000 shipping containers of “equipment and munitions” to Russia recently. Satellite images purportedly show clear evidence of Russian ships linked to military transport networks collecting the cargo – signs that Pyongyang is aiding Moscow’s war efforts.
2: Two Swedish nationals were killed in a shooting in Brussels on Monday. The attack in the Belgian capital took place during the Belgium-Sweden Euro 2024 qualifier soccer match, and play was subsequently halted. The gunman, who is believed to have been Tunisian, posted a video on social media claiming to have waged the attack in the name of God. He was shot dead by police late Monday.
24 billion: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni aims to cut taxes and boost public sector incomes next year, and her cabinet approved a budget on Monday to spend 24 billion euros ($25.3 billion) to make it happen. Meloni needs to boost growth and consumption quickly, before next June’s European Parliament elections, which could test her coalition government.
100: The Constitutional Court of Georgia found the country's pro-western President Salome Zourabichvili guilty on Monday of breaching the constitution by conducting visits with European leaders and lobbying for her country's membership of the European Union without government consent. While her opponents in the ruling Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia are unlikely to get the 100 votes they need to remove her, the president – who constitutionally represents the country in foreign relations – is expected to face intense pressure to resign, perhaps paving a route for a pro-Russian leader to take the helm.
26: As we’ve mentioned, the war in the Middle East has sparked an uptick in hate crimes around the globe. One of the latest victims was six-year-old Palestinian-American Wadea Al-Fayoume, from the Chicago area, who was stabbed 26 times on Saturday and died from his injuries. His mother was also stabbed and remains in hospital, and police have charged the suspect with murder and hate crimes.