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PYONGYANG, North Korea - A group of women visit a beach resort in Wonsan, North Korea, in September 2013. The women said they are coworkers at a clothes factory in the capital Pyongyang and their trip to Wonsan is a reward for an increase in output.
Your next dream vacay: Wonsan, North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Unvisited the site of the country’s long-delayed Wonsan-Kalma resort zone for foreign tourists on Tuesday and discussed opening it by May 2025, state media reported on Thursday. There’s just one problem: Who wants to vacation in North Korea?
Well, historically, a pretty decent number of people, believe it or not. In 2019, about 300,000 foreign tourists took highly controlled vacations to the Hermit Kingdom. About 90% came from China, but a few thousand Westerners forked over exorbitant fees for visas and guided tours, ethical concerns notwithstanding. Wonsan-Kalma, with its well-groomed-if-somewhat-frigid beaches, luxury accommodations, and nearby ski facilities, was originally meant to service that market.
You might remember during that bizarre period of US-DPRK rapprochement in 2018-2019, GOP mega-donor Sheldon Adelson even floated the idea of building a casino in Wonsan. But tourists haven’t been allowed back since Pyongyang shut its borders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Kim would like that revenue back, and he probably prefers that his signature tourist project not end up like the extremely creepy and never-to-be-finished Ryugyong Hotel that has loomed over the capital’s skyline for nearly 40 years.
But before you rush to book a vacation, think about the true costs. The resort sits just miles from the site of Kyo-hwa-so No.88, where prisoners were forced to quarry stone in horrific conditions from at least 1985 to 2021 — and it remains unclear if the facility has been shuttered or just made smaller.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un arrive for a gala concert in Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024.
Putin and Kim sign mutual defense deal
Russian President Vladimir Putinarrived in Pyongyang early Wednesday for his first official visit to North Korea in 24 years. He met with Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and signed a deal to provide “mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement.”
Putin called it a “breakthrough” document, but “aggression” is a vague term that leaves plenty of room for interpretation.
The real news. Russia, which has been isolated by the international community over its invasion of Ukraine, desperately needs more munitions to continue the war — that’s what this visit is really about. Moscow is deepening ties with Pyongyang to ensure it keeps the ammunition train rolling.
North Korea has sent roughly 10,000 shipping containers to Russia that could contain as many as 4.8 million artillery shells, according to recent comments from South Korea’s defense minister. Russia and North Korea have denied such arms transfers are taking place.
During Putin’s visit, North Korea notably declared “full support” for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
What does North Korea get? The expanding partnership between the two countries could see Russia provide North Korea with everything from food to military technology.
Like Russia over its war in Ukraine, the rogue state faces crippling sanctions over its nuclear program. Putin is also calling for increased cooperation between the two in fighting these sanctions, decrying such economic penalties as an effort by the West to maintain its hegemony.
Putin's rare North Korea visit will deepen ties
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Putin's rare visit to North Korea strengthen anti-West alignment?
It's deepening the relationship. There's no question. He hasn't been in North Korea in decades. And I mean they call it the Hermit Kingdom. It's completely totalitarian. It's incredibly poor. But they have a massive military and they've been providing an awful lot thousands and thousands of train containers, of weaponry, of ammunition, of artillery. And those containers haven't gone back empty from Russia. And there's been a lot of sense of technology that's been transferred. The interesting thing will be whether or not, this leads to more provocative North Korean behavior vis-à-vis the South and Japan, because they think they can get away with it because they have coverage from Russia. And will they start coordinating diplomatically, in response to the NATO threat, in response to, you know, the way that the war in Ukraine is going? Be interesting to watch. It's not what China wants to see, but that is certainly a piece of what happens when a couple of states considered pariahs and rogues by the West, are developing a real alliance.
Is escalation of war between Israel and Hezbollah inevitable?
Nothing's inevitable. It's looking more likely by the day. I've been very concerned about this second front. I didn't think it was going to open up in the early months because Israel is a small country and they've got a lot of people, a lot of forces that are fighting on the ground in Gaza. But as the war in Gaza, I don't want to say wraps up because I don't think that's going to happen, but at least winds down and becomes less about taking and controlling and rooting out Hamas in across all of the territory, and is less military intensive in terms of troops, then the Israelis can move a lot of those troops up to the north. And I think that is increasingly likely in part, because you have 100,000 Israelis that are evacuated still. And the Israeli leaders say a lot, you know, they got to get them back for the school year. That's September. It's coming up soon. And secondly, because Hezbollah is increasingly engaging in strikes against Israel and most recently, really invasive surveillance drone, you know, intervention, including the port of Haifa. So it's really showing off to the Israelis that we're going to hit you hard. We're going to make this really hurt. They're a hell of a lot more powerful militarily Hezbollah is than Hamas. So if this happens, it's going to be a lot bigger deal in terms of the impact and the casualties.
Will President Biden's new citizenship plan bolster his campaign?
I guess a little bit in the sense that it's an issue that is top two for most voters, inflation and the migration issue. And, you know, he has been taking a harder line on number of migrants coming in. So now he's offering the spouses that don't have citizenship, but their spouses do, you know, are going to have improved treatment. That's a give, especially in a lot of states, where you have lots of those people, and states that he needs those votes. Every vote matters. Is it really gonna help his campaign at the end of the day? This is a tough one. On balance, I think that, Trump does better on this issue in the same way Biden does on abortion.
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
Putin visits his pal in Beijing
The message is clear: Russia and China stand together, and recent pressure on Beijing to rethink the partnership hasn’t worked. Not that anyone believed US and EU requests to limit the export of goods Russia might use in Ukraine went anywhere but the circular file.
Peek under the hood of the Putin-Xi partnership, however, and you’ll see the gears could use some grease. For instance, Putin would like Xi to commit to the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help him deal with Western sanctions. Xi has historically been less enthusiastic about the project (he’s already getting Russian gas at a steep discount, after all).
There’s also North Korea, which has grown considerably closer to Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine. China isn’t thrilled to see Russia butting in on what it considers its sphere of influence but has taken a soft approach thus far. In January, Putin accepted an invitation from Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to visit, and we’re watching for a stop in Pyongyang, which would likely tweak Xi. Even if it doesn’t happen this time around, Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says “it's highly likely that Putin will visit North Korea by the end of 2024.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends the groundbreaking ceremony for the construction of a factory in Songchon County, North Korea, February 28, 2024.
IAEA chief backs Japan-North Korea talks
International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi said Tuesday that the UN body supports Japan’s efforts to hold a summit with North Korea to boost engagement, even if nuclear weapons aren’t on the agenda.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said he is prepared to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he tries to bring back Japanese nationals abducted to North Korea between 1977 and 1983. Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong, who holds considerable sway, indicated that Pyongyang would be open to talks with Japan last month.
Japan secured the release of five abductees in 2002, and of their children in 2004, but Pyongyang has since stonewalled. Of the 12 people Japan believes remain imprisoned, North Korea claims eight are dead and that four were never abducted.
Why the change of heart? Kim may be hoping to use the talks to muck up the growing closeness between Tokyo, Seoul, and Washington. The Supreme Leader has made significant rhetorical changes toward the South, renouncing the goal of reunification and referring to Seoul as “the main enemy.” Hawkish South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol wasn’t eager for rapprochement anyway, while the Biden administration has mostly ignored Pyongyang.
Only Kishida, facing an election expected this year amid sagging approval and scandals, has any reason to talk with Kim. A breakthrough on the emotional issue of abductees — even simply obtaining proof of life or death — could goose his numbers.FILE PHOTO: Donald Trump dancing during the campaign rally for the Republican primary for the 2024 American presidential election. Manchester (NH), USA, January 20, 2024.
For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024
In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”
That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.
The view from China: The prospect of a friendlier – or at least more transactional – US administration might be good news for cross-strait relations in the short term. There's no point in rocking the boat in a way that might hurt either Trump’s prospects or what trust Beijing has built with the Biden administration over the last year (Joe Biden, after all, could win too).
Beijing isn’t alone in recognizing that a little patience could pay big dividends after November. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel would have carte blanche under Trump 2.0.
“Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas,” he said. “If Trump [were] in power, the US conduct would be completely different.”
The view from the Kremlin is just as rosy. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been arguing for months that Vladimir Putin is waiting for Trump to be re-elected to sue for peace in Ukraine because of how destabilizing another dose of Trump will be to NATO. Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daaldermade a similar argument last week. And Trump did tell European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO” in 2020.
GZERO also has its eye on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and Trump left it in a bad place after their whirlwind romance in 2018 … but who knows what another love letter might spark?
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends the 10th Session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, at the Mansudae Assembly Hall, in Pyongyang, North Korea, January 15, 2024.
What’s Kim Jong Un playing at?
On Tuesday, North Korean state media reported that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un had proposed changing the country’s constitution to remove all references to reunification with South Korea and to frame Seoul as the country’s “primary foe.” It echoes the rejection of reunification Kim made in his New Year’s speech and comes a week after North Korean forces fired artillery shells across their disputed maritime border with South Korea.
What’s the signal? One can only glean at the surface level domestically, but the militaristic rhetoric seems to be preparing North Koreans for hard times to continue. The state will need to continue allocating scarce resources to protect itself from its enemies, South Korea and the United States, rather than develop the country.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst covering North Korea for Eurasia Group, says Kim may have one eye on elections in each country as well.
“By the end of this year, Kim could be looking at an incoming President Trump, who loves exchanging love letters and potentially could be sold on a deal that actually doesn't include denuclearization; maybe something like a nuclear freeze,” Chan said. “There's light at the end of the tunnel a bit for Kim strategically from where he stands.”
South Korea’s legislative elections in April have unpopular President Yoon Suk-yeol, a North Korea hawk, fighting an uphill battle against the opposition Democratic Party, but if Pyongyang wanted to help his dovish opponents, harsh rhetoric and artillery drills would seem counterproductive.
“If you parse Kim's remarks, he's not personalizing this to Yoon or even to the conservatives,” said Chan, explaining that Kim is threatening South Korea itself, and considers leaders from all its parties to be illegitimate.
Is Kim preparing for war? Some experts are worried he is, as Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker laid out last week in 38North, a specialist outlet on North Korea affairs.
It’s impossible to know Kim’s intentions, and even though the US and South Korea are all but guaranteed to destroy North Korea in an open war (but likely at a brutal cost in civilian lives), Yoon is not ignoring the possibility.
After the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, Yoon ordered the military to beef up its reconnaissance – despite Pyongyang’s annoyance – and last month, he told troops deployed on the DMZ that if fired upon, they should “take retaliatory steps” first and ask questions later.
Former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis participate in the fourth Republican debate of the 2024 US presidential campaign in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, U.S.
Hard Numbers: Republicans tune out debate, US moon lander faces trouble, Indian court revisits 2002 violence, Kim Jong Un skips the big 4-0, German soccer legend dies, Argentina’s big bill
51: The GOP’s fifth presidential debate is being held Wednesday night on CNN, but a key demographic isn’t tuning in. According to a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll, 51% of Republicans don’t plan to watch, reflecting just how strong a lead former President Donald Trump – who’s expected to skip the event (again!) – has in the race toward the nomination. Apart from Trump, only Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley have qualified to take part.
50: Houston, we have a problem … The US launched its first lunar lander in over 50 years on Monday, but it may not reach its destination. The Peregrine spacecraft, a robotic lander built by the Pittsburgh-based aerospace company Astrobotic, successfully took off from Cape Canaveral, but the company says that issues likely caused by the propulsion system are threatening “the ability of the spacecraft to soft land on the moon.”
11: India’s Supreme Court on Monday restored life prison sentences for 11 men convicted of raping a pregnant woman in 2002 during Hindu-Muslim religious violence in the state of Gujarat. The men, who were released from prison in 2022, must now surrender to authorities within two weeks. PM Narendra Modi was the top elected official in Gujarat back then, and he has faced criticism over his actions during the 2002 sectarian riots, which saw over 1,000 people, mostly Muslim, killed.
40: Kim Jong Un turned 40 on Monday. The nuke-obsessed Supreme Leader is believed to have been born on Jan. 8, 1984, though North Korea has not officially confirmed this. While his father and grandfather often held lavish parties for themselves, Kim opted not to throw a birthday bash.
78: Franz Beckenbauer, perhaps the most famous German soccer player of all time, died Sunday at the age of 78. Beckenbauer, a defender, was one of just three men in history to win the World Cup as both a player and a manager – he’s joined only by Brazil's Mario Zagallo, who passed away on Friday at 92, and Didier Deschamps, 55, of France.
5 billion: Argentina has until Jan. 10 to scrounge up $5 billion in collateral for the $16 billion it owes the private shareholders of state energy company YFP. Argentina is expected to miss the deadline – despite President Javier Milei pledging to break the country’s defaulting habit – at which point the shareholders would be forced to assert their rights by seizing Argentine assets. This could be anything: In 2012, Argentina lost a tall-masted naval ship to a hedge fund that seized it as an asset when it was docked in Ghana.