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Podcast: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Ian Bremmer is in Tokyo, Japan, to check in on America’s “pivot to Asia.” How’s that going? Given that neither Ukraine nor Israel is located in the Asia Pacific, it is not so great!
In 2011, then-President Obama announced on a trip to Australia that US foreign policy would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to curb a rising China. Twelve years later, we’re still pivoting. But if we ever do get there, we will have to take Japan, one of our closest regional allies, along with us. To talk about US-Japan relations, as well as a whole host of sticky policy issues, foreign and domestic, Ian is joined by US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. Ian will also get his take on the Israel-Hamas war and the fighting in Ukraine.
US CEOs too influential on China policy, says Rahm Emanuel
US CEOs are too cozy with Beijing, says US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel.
At the APEC summit last November in San Francisco, heads of state and diplomats from nations in the Asia-Pacific met to address a wide array of strategic interests and challenges. But no other meeting was as closely watched as that between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As successful as that meeting may have been on a PR level (at least according to the delegations of each leader), one man present took special note of what happened afterward. US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, told Ian Bremmer about that summit during an exclusive interview in the latest episode of GZERO World, filmed at the Ambassador's residence in Tokyo, Japan.
"President Xi goes to have a meeting with American CEOs who give him a standing ovation, though he hasn't yet said anything," recounted Ambassador Emanuel. "The President of the United States goes to an event, and all the heads of state are there. That tells you about alliances, that tells you about the interests of China."
Bremmer then noted that it also tells you something about the interests of American CEOs. to which Emanuel responded: "I think the American CEOs are way too influential in American foreign policy in this region, way too influential."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
When Biden met Xi (and what's going on with the US and China) | TED
Better or Worse? What happened when two frenemies -- China's President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden -- met at the APEC Summit in San Francisco? Did the two superpowers move closer to conflict or actually get something positive done? What will make a difference? Ian Bremmer was in San Francisco and took in the big event, and he sits down for an exclusive conversation with GZERO's new partner, TED, to explain what it all means.
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President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, in California, on Nov. 15, 2023.
Last dance with China?
Slide to the right.
Slide to the left.
And … pivot.
The diplomatic dance, dubbed “the pivot” by President Barack Obama back in 2011, is all the rage again in San Francisco, where 21 countries have gathered for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), and this year everyone is watching one dysfunctional couple on the dance floor: Biden and Xi.
The original Obama pivot was about increasing US influence in the Asia Pacific — read: pushing back on growing Chinese influence, military might, and Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative – and it also meant pivoting away from places like the Middle East. So, choreographically speaking, it was a step from the Middle East to a bigger step to the Far East, as it were, and it caused friction with China. But the steps are more complicated today.
With the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war raging, the US can’t just pivot away from its old stomping grounds, and yet it can’t pivot away from China either. China is similarly stuck. It’s suffering from slow growth and wants to make sure the world doesn’t descend into chaotic wars that might screw up its export markets, so it also needs to start dancing with the US again.
That’s why Chinese President Xi Jinping slid on over to San Francisco to meet with President Joe Biden for the second time. They have got to start dancing again. What is the metric of success here? It’s a low bar. Open up lines of communication. Put a floor under the deteriorating relationship. Avoid a war in Taiwan. Get back to business.
On the plus side, they reestablished military-to-military communications, which is important in a world where Chinese planes and ships are dangerously buzzing US and other NATO military assets in international waters near Taiwan. A bad accident could trigger a nightmare scenario, so a direct line matters. And they made progress on stopping the deadly fentanyl export problem.
But they didn’t get much done on rules around AI, semiconductor exports, or efforts to help stop the war in the Middle East by leaning on Iran. And Taiwan remains a festering diplomatic wound. So this ain’t no thaw. Oh, and, Biden called Xi a “dictator” immediately after their sit-down, so …
Still, the fact that they met and talked is a huge win.
An even bigger sign of warming relations came not from the lead dancer but the chorus line: Top US CEOs from companies like Apple and BlackRock gave Xi a warm round of applause and ate with him while Xi lapped it up. And why shouldn’t he? Xi, after all, is desperate to boost foreign direct investment, which is in its worst shape in 25 years. Show Xi the money.
If nothing else, the summit showed that the economic links between the two countries — ChiMerica — are too critical to toss away. So Biden gets a small win here.
Now, let’s pivot to Canada, a much lonelier figure on the dance floor.
Justin Trudeau has terrible relations with China and is not meeting with Xi at the summit, which means his Indo-Pacific strategy is really in shambles. It's not entirely his fault. China has kidnapped Canadians and interfered with elections, according to the government. Not exactly a great incentive to warm things up. Still, Canada can't ignore China.
I spoke with a senior source from the prime minister’s office who would not say much about what they wanted to accomplish at APEC with China, which is the main game here. All I got was a short note saying, “We need to engage where we need to, on issues like climate, and challenge where we have to. Our focus is continuing to deepen relations and trade, and trade is up 22% with APEC members.”
OK, but trade with that region is up globally, and it doesn't address the key question: What leverage does Canada have with China?
“Canada lacks credibility in the Indo-Pacific region, where, despite its new Indo-Pacific strategy and membership of the CPTPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership], it is seen as insufficiently and inconsistently engaged,” my colleague Graeme Thompson told me. “In the context of the geopolitical competition between the US and China, Beijing sees Ottawa as petulant and weak. The comparison with Australia, which is a serious military power for its size with a real, sustained, and long-term diplomatic and strategic focus on the region, is illuminating — and not flattering to Canada.”
The Australian PM, meanwhile, recently made a visit to China to meet Xi — this despite taking a very hawkish stance and upping its military profile with submarines and alliances like the Quad. And yet, here they are, warming the wires with China. Why? As my colleague says, Australia has paid its military dues in the region, and Canada has not.
In a world of multiple crises, there is no room for single pivots or isolating superpowers. And you can't hold a grudge. That is the reality. There has to be a united democratic front that presses bad actors, rogue actors, and superpowers that are a threat – China being one — to play by the international rules of trade and justice. That club is expensive to join and requires muscling up. That's the Aussie model, and the US likes it. So does the UK.
Biden and the US are signaling that they are pivoting back to the big dance with China. Meanwhile, Canada looks like it is still pivoting away — does that mean Trudeau has had his last dance with China?
Biden & Xi set to agree on regulating military use of AI
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Biden and Xi come together to regulate military use of AI?
I think that's one of the areas that we are going to see a level of cooperation. The Chinese are concerned about, first, the Americans being ahead of them in AI, but secondly, about the fact that this could escalate and spiral into mutually assured destruction quickly, if there isn't a level of transparency. That's very different from the unwillingness of the Chinese to engage in high level military talks, for example, on South China Sea or on Taiwan recently. This is an area that I think will be constructive. I'm glad to see it.
Can the Qatari mediation secure a breakthrough for hostage release in Gaza?
Well, we've been hearing about this for weeks now and it's been imminent and then not happening. Imminent, Not happening. I do think that the level of pressure on Israel, on the Israeli government for not having secured the release of women, of children, I mean, we're talking about a couple of hundred plus civilian hostages living in the most unimaginably horrible environment in Gaza. And I do believe that a breakthrough is pretty likely. We're also going to find out that a lot of these hostages, of course, are already dead. But I'm hopeful and let's keep fingers crossed on that.
Has time run out for Ukraine's counteroffensive?
The much-vaunted counteroffensive, yet it looks like they're not going to be able to take much more territory at this point. And it's hard to imagine they're going to have the military capacity or the troop capacity to do anything else in the foreseeable future. And that means that de facto, the 18% of Ukraine's territory that Russia presently occupies, they're going to continue to occupy going forward. No one's going to accept a partition. No one is going to say that Russia legitimately owns that territory because it is Ukrainian territory. But the reality is unacceptable. And that is where we're going to be an uncomfortable position going forward.
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President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they meet on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14, 2022.
Viewpoint: Don’t expect too much from Xi-Biden meeting
Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are preparing for talks next week to stabilize relations between their two countries and prevent a dangerous flare-up of hostilities over Taiwan. The meeting represents the culmination of months of preparatory work by lower-level officials and is expected to take place on Nov. 14 or Nov. 15 on the sidelines of the APEC leaders’ summit in San Francisco.
At a time when wars are raging in Europe and the Middle East, any step toward reducing tensions between the world’s two leading military and economic powers will be welcomed. But given the fundamental differences between the US and China, how much can we really expect from next week’s meeting? We asked Anna Ashton, a director for Eurasia Group’s China practice, and Clayton Allen, a director for the United States practice.
Why is this meeting happening now?
Anna Ashton: When the two presidents met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali last November, it was clear they intended to take further steps to stabilize ties. The next one was meant to be a visit to China by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in February to prepare the way for another meeting between the two heads of state. But the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon over the US unexpectedly disrupted those plans. For Xi, the APEC summit – a gathering of the heads of state of 21 Asia-Pacific countries – represents a good opportunity to resume the dialog with his US counterpart. It will allow him (and also Biden) to demonstrate to other Asia-Pacific nations that they are managing bilateral relations responsibly. However, if diplomacy had not picked up in recent months, Xi might have opted to send another senior official in his stead.
Clayton Allen: The US push for diplomacy over the summer – which involved the visits of several cabinet officials to China and the creation of working groups to coordinate policies on various issues – was always intended to lead to higher-level engagement. The APEC summit offered a relatively low-stakes option for a meeting to move forward if sufficient diplomatic progress had been made. Put simply, both leaders already wanted to attend the summit, meaning a sideline meeting could be arranged more easily than a meeting in Washington or Beijing. More broadly, this meeting is happening because both sides see benefit in using a high-level meeting to confirm at least some of the progress made this summer in stabilizing the relationship.
What does Xi want from meeting?
Ashton: Xi is hoping to reassure China's neighbors that China is a responsible stakeholder in the region, a responsible power. His willingness to meet face-to-face with Biden in a US venue is an important signal. But the bilateral relationship remains fundamentally one between peer competitors – even adversaries. The room for tangible cooperation remains limited. Xi's expectations are likely modest.
What does Biden want?
Allen: Biden wants some reciprocal diplomatic effort from China, specifically the resumption of military-to-military communication, which China suspended in protest over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August when she was speaker of the US House of Representatives. (China considers such visits to what it views as a breakaway territory an affront to its sovereignty.) This, alongside the multiple working group and staff-level engagement frameworks announced since early August, would bring US-China relations back to roughly the same level they were at before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It would also create enough goodwill to avert a potential collapse in relations ahead of Taiwan’s January presidential election.
What are the best-case outcomes?
Ashton: Events on the calendar in 2024 could prove enormously disruptive to any progress made this year. Xi will likely use this opportunity to underscore China's top concerns with US policies. He will remind Biden of the importance Beijing attaches to Taiwan's eventual reunification with the mainland, stressing the damage that would be done to bilateral ties if the US moved away from its longstanding One China policy. He will also likely reiterate China's objections to the breadth of US tech restrictions. It is also possible that China will agree to take steps in support of US efforts to end the fentanyl epidemic. The best-case scenario is that the meeting helps to mitigate the potential for volatility in 2024.
Allen: The resumption of military-to-military communication, formalization of the working groups announced since August, and commitments to additional high-level meetings. Additional commitments from China to leverage its influence with the Global South in talks about the Ukraine crisis and efforts to contain the hostilities in the Middle East would be significant positive outcomes.
What are the next watchpoints for the bilateral relationship after this meeting?
Ashton: Taiwan's presidential election on Jan. 13. The candidate most likely to win based on current polling is Lai Ching-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party who draws support from Taiwan's most dedicated independence activists. That brings us to a second watchpoint in May, when Taiwan’s next president will be inaugurated. During the interim, between January and May, China will likely seek to dissuade the incoming president from adopting a more assertive independence agenda by conducting military maneuvers in the region. The final major watchpoint is the US presidential election in November. The lead-up to the vote is likely to feature heated rhetoric on China from both Republicans and Democrats.
Allen: Additional staff-level meetings. Leader-level meetings are essential to advancing efforts at stabilizing the relationship, but staff-level meetings are where the detailed work will happen. Historically, the US-China relationship has improved in the lead-up to leader-level meetings but declined soon after they have finished; staff-level engagement may mitigate some of this (potential) decline.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Israel control in Gaza: No end in sight
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How long will Israel's indefinite security control in Gaza last?
I think a long, long time. Was it a Colin Powell that said, you know, you break it, you own it in terms of Iraq and Americans were there for a long, long time. I can't see anyone willing to come in and play a security role that will work after the Israelis have wrought absolute destruction on the people and infrastructure of Gaza, which is clearly what is required if you want to destroy Hamas. And indeed Netanyahu has said that they're going to stay and as long as it takes, essentially in terms of security. By the way, the Israeli people strongly don't want that. They don't want an occupation, but they're kind of stuck in one. And that's one of the reasons why a ground war was something to think more carefully about. And look, there are no easy answers for anyone here. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
What do you expect from the Biden-Xi meeting at APEC?
Well, it's definitely happening. Big summit next week in San Francisco. I'll be there, should be a lot of fun. And look, the Chinese, they don't agree with the United States on a lot of policies. There's not a lot of trust in the relationship, but they are adults. And in that regard, they do want ultimately a level of stability. They don't want the world to burn. They'd like, for example, the Israel-Hamas conflict to be over soon. They'd like Russia-Ukraine to be over soon. They're not taking a leadership role on any of these things. And the US meeting, the Biden meeting with Xi, I suspect, is going to be reasonably strong because there's been so much prep for it on a bunch of issues that both countries are trying to build some stability. Fentanyl, for example, artificial intelligence, for example, climate, for example. Having said all of that, Taiwan and technology are the big bugbears in the relationship. And right now they're both heading in a more problematic direction, not in a better one.
Finally, is a nuclear Israel concerning during a time of war?
I'm actually going to say no. A nuclear Israel is actually less concerning in a time of war because it is yet one more reason why the Israelis don't need to feel that they face an existential threat from external enemies. There are a lot of people out there, certainly Hamas, certainly Hezbollah, certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose stated goals are the end of Israel. But they can't come close to bringing it about. And indeed it was the Israeli security failure to under Netanyahu that allowed the October 7th terror attacks to pose such a threat to Israel that it did. So on balance, I'd say it's stabilizing, but I also should say, let's keep in mind that there are some insane people that are on the far right that are still in government in Israel, including the heritage minister who was openly musing about the possibility of using a nuke on Gaza, which is something that should get you fired and Netanyahu hasn't yet, to my knowledge, fired him, which is insane. So, I mean, let's also recognize that there are crazy people in the government, like the Proud Boys of Israel, essentially. And really, they cannot be pushed out fast enough.
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U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022.
Can US & China keep things calm ahead of Biden-Xi meeting?
China’s second highest-ranking leader, former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, died suddenly late last week of a heart attack, aged 68. An economist, the English-speaking Li was known for his openness to private business and Western ideas. He and Xi Jinping did not see eye-to-eye on economic policy, and as Xi’s power grew, Li was sidelined and notably forced out of the Party’s Standing Committee last October, two years short of the usual retirement age of 70. Li was critical of the damage caused by Xi's heavyhanded zero-COVID approach to both the economy and average Chinese citizens.
While the official response to Li’s death has been muted, there has been an outpouring of emotion within China, notably on social media. Already, there are reports of a crackdown on VPN use to reduce access to the parts of the internet not controlled by the Communist Party. The fear is that mourning for a popular, liberal, former leader could spur criticism of Xi’s administration at a time of general economic malaise – just as the death of Premier Zhou Enlai triggered the “democracy wall” movement of the late 1970s, and grief for Party leader Hu Yaobang gave rise to the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.
Li’s death also comes just before the planned meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden in San Francisco in mid-November. The high-level sitdown would cap a series of meetings between the White House and other Chinese leaders, including one between Biden and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi last Friday in Washington.
But Yi warned after that meeting that the "road to the San Francisco summit will not be a smooth one” and said that instead China and the U.S. should "return to Bali.” He was referring to the time Biden and Xi met – at the Group of 20 summit in Bali last November, where the two leaders discussed Taiwan, competition, and communication.
Still, there are signs that China and the US are keen to mend some fences. Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s trip to China last week saw him meet with both Wang and Xi, which came on the heels of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s visit to China. The recent flurry of diplomacy signals that both countries want to improve ties ahead of Xi’s meeting with Biden – and well before Taiwan’s presidential elections in January.