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Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida poses with U.S President Joe Biden as they are on the way to state dinner in Washington DC, U.S, on April 10, 2024.
Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat
The White House showered Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida with gifts and honors during his state visit starting Wednesday, but the friendly display is aimed just as much at Beijing as it is Tokyo.
Kishida and Biden announced an upgrade to the longstanding US-Japan defense agreement on Wednesday that will make Japan’s military more agile by appointing a local US command and organizing a joint military-industrial production committee. The two will hold a trilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Thursday to discuss further military cooperation.
“The US-Japan security alliance – even though it’s remarkably strong – is not well integrated and unified in a way where forces can rapidly respond,” says Eurasia Group Japan director David Boling, “The long-term goal is for a combined command, with deep force integration, that can respond lickety-split to emergency contingencies.”
A Paul Simonconcert over ribeye must be a nice change of atmosphere for Kishida, who is unpopular and struggling to put a lid on party scandals at home. One of the few areas where he does relatively well with voters is foreign policy, and Kishida has continued the augmentation of Japan’s armed forces while bolstering relations with South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines — all potential conflict zones with China.
Tokyo’s relationship with Manila has seen the greatest strides forward, including a new agreement that could see Japanese troops deployed to the archipelago.
“On the Philippines, Japan has recognized that any contingency that escalates into a kinetic conflict is going to immediately implicate Japan,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. After all, many of the US troops and ships that would support the Philippines (or Taiwan or South Korea) are stationed in Japan, making US bases there tempting targets for China.
We’re watching for Beijing’s reaction to Thursday’s trilateral.
President Joe Biden Meets With Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC in January 2023.
US and Japan will upgrade military ties
In the past, US military planners have treated Japan as a forward position for its troops in East Asia, but without much coordination with historically underdeveloped Japanese forces, and this move underscores the deeper investment Japan has made in recent years in its own military capabilities.
It’s also a response to a perceived growing threat from China, including in the Taiwan Strait. (The Kishida administration has referred to Taiwan as Japan’s “extremely crucial partner and an important friend.”)
It signals a stronger stance by the US and its East Asian allies on threats from North Korea. And thanks to the improvements in Japan’s relationship with South Korea, Seoul is not objecting to the upgraded ties as it once might have..
The specifics will take months for senior US and Japanese officials to hash out, but even the initial announcement will raise heart rates in Beijing.
Thick plates of steel for use in construction and ship building are hot-rolled by machinery at the Nippon Steel Corp. Kimitsu steel mill in Kimitsu, Japan near Tokyo February 6, 2008.
Biden slams Nippon Steel deal — but Tokyo plays it cool
US President Joe Biden on Thursday came out against Japan’s largest steel producer acquiring Pittsburgh-based US Steel, saying America must “maintain strong American steel companies powered by American steelworkers.”
Nippon Steel made an offer worth over $14 billion in December, and shortly afterward the White House indicated it would be scrutinized by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States. For now, the deal is still on, but CFIUS review is usually reserved for deals involving companies from potential adversaries – not from trusted allies like Japan — and presidents rarely comment before the committee finishes.
But this is 2024. Biden and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump are battling over blue-collar workers in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania in November. Trump promised to block the deal “instantaneously” during a meeting with Teamsters earlier this year, and Biden has never been shy to flex his union bona fides.
How does Tokyo feel? Discretion seems to be the better part of valor for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
“Tokyo understands that in love and politics, timing is everything and that the political timing of this deal is awful for Biden,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan analyst David Boling. “That doesn’t mean that Tokyo is happy that Washington is treating an ally this way. But it’s not putting up a big fuss.”
Would US-Japan ties be hurt by a Trump re-election?
Can one of the United States' closest allies count on it when the chips are down?
That question was up in the air during the four years of President Trump's administration. And now that the former President has a real chance of winning the White House in 2024 again, it's an urgent question again. And it's one that Ian Bremmer puts to the US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, in the last episode of GZERO World.
In an exclusive interview in Tokyo, Bremmer and Emanuel discuss various topics, ranging from the crucial (but complicated) US-Japan relationship, the ever-present security threats China poses, and the raging conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
But perhaps no question hit closer to home than America's reliability. "Elections may fluctuate," Emanuel assures Ian, "but strategic interests align."
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: The complicated US-Japan relationship
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
The complicated US-Japan relationship
The US-Japan alliance is complex. But among other priorities, to rein in China, both countries need each other.
If you know anything about Rahm Emanuel, it's that speaking diplomatically may not be his forte. And yet, his current post demands it. The former White House chief of staff (called, in his day, a "pitbull") and the polarizing mayor of Chicago now serves as the US ambassador to Japan, one of the US' closest allies. Ian Bremmer was in Tokyo for an exclusive interview with Emanuel. And though the ambassador did his best to remain "diplomatic," there were flashes of the "pitbull" as well.
In a wide-ranging interview, the Ambassador discusses Japan's critical role as a key US ally in the Asia-Pacific and a bulwark against an ever-expanding China. Emanuel also discusses a recent trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea at the Camp David presidential compound and the significance of these alliances in countering aggression and promoting diplomacy. Perhaps he is most wary of drifting out of his lane when commenting on wars in the Middle East and Europe. But he does touch on the polarization of the Israel-Palestine issue and the need for a moral grounding in addressing the conflict.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Podcast: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Ian Bremmer is in Tokyo, Japan, to check in on America’s “pivot to Asia.” How’s that going? Given that neither Ukraine nor Israel is located in the Asia Pacific, it is not so great!
In 2011, then-President Obama announced on a trip to Australia that US foreign policy would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to curb a rising China. Twelve years later, we’re still pivoting. But if we ever do get there, we will have to take Japan, one of our closest regional allies, along with us. To talk about US-Japan relations, as well as a whole host of sticky policy issues, foreign and domestic, Ian is joined by US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. Ian will also get his take on the Israel-Hamas war and the fighting in Ukraine.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Biden brings South Korea and Japan together
Nestled in the woods of Maryland outside Washington, DC, the Camp David estate -- the president's country retreat -- looms large in international diplomacy as a place where serious business gets done.
On Friday, President Joe Biden will host South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a summit at the famous campsite where, in 1978, Jimmy Carter helped broker peace between Egypt and Israel.
While it might not seem like a big deal for Washington to facilitate a summit with America’s two closest Asian partners, it is monumental that South Korea, in particular, appears ready and willing to enlist in a new US-led trilateral alliance with Japan.
Despite a rapprochement, relations between the two East Asian giants have remained strained since Japan ended its 35-year occupation of the Korean peninsula in 1945.
So, what’s on the agenda at Camp David and why is South Korea, long aggrieved by its former colonial power, willing to create this bloc?
The three states will reportedly announce publicly that they will respond collectively to security threats in the Asia Pacific – a big deal considering that Seoul and Tokyo do not have an official security alliance. Trilateral military drills will likely be annualized, while they’ll also announce closer coordination on ballistic-missile defense and cybersecurity.
Clearly, the summit aims to send a powerful message to China and North Korea that these three advanced economies are prepared to combine their military and tech bonafides to protect their collective interests.
Why is this happening now?
Changing of the guard in Seoul. Only two years ago, such a meeting would have seemed nearly unthinkable. Yoon’s predecessor, President Moon Jae-in, broadly seen as left of center, went to painstaking lengths to engage with Pyongyang.
He also oversaw a period of worsening ties with Tokyo over compensation for Japan’s use of Korean forced labor during the occupation. Relations reached a nadir in 2019 when Tokyo placed restrictions on exports bound for South Korea needed to make crucial tech.
But this approach to regional politics took a sharp turn when Yoon, a conservative, came to power in March 2022, vowing to get tougher on China and the North, and to bolster ties with the US. And that’s exactly what he’s done.
But how much of this shift reflects Yoon’s hawkish brand of politics -- or is this a symptom of a broader anti-China shift in Korean society?
“Trilateral cooperation, and the bilateral rapprochement with Japan that have enabled it, would have been unthinkable under former president Moon or Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the center-left opposition whom Yoon narrowly defeated in 2022,” says Jeremy Chan, a China and Northeast Asia consultant at Eurasia Group.
“The big right-left divide in Korean politics is about policy towards North Korea, and the conservatives take a far more hawkish line toward Pyongyang and their backers in Beijing,” he says.
The China angle. China’s increasingly bellicose behavior in the South China Sea has indeed helped the US bring Japan and South Korea together under a joint security umbrella. After all, nothing unites a former colonial power and former colonial subject like mutual fears of a regional superpower.
Crucially, increasingly negative attitudes towards Beijing at home have also given Yoon an opening to deepen security ties with Japan and the US.
Indeed, South Koreans have soured on China since 2016, when Beijing enforced punitive economic measures on Seoul after the US deployed THAAD anti-missile systems on the Korean Peninsula. The US’ aim was to offer a bulwark against Pyongyang’s missile activities, but China said the move constituted a threat to its national security.
Still, it’s a balancing act, as Japan and South Korea’s economies are tightly interwoven with China’s, and neither wants to risk alienating Beijing too much.
What Washington wants. Getting Tokyo and Seoul to act in lockstep has been a key foreign policy priority for the Biden administration as it looks to contain China’s growth. Together, the two Asian states host 80,000 US troops, and South Korea also hosts the largest US overseas military base in the world.
Politically, the bringing together of Japan and Korea can certainly be cast as a win for President Joe Biden, who has aptly capitalized on growing fear in the region to unite two important US allies with a contentious past.
China’s fear: Asian NATO. “China is watching for how far trilateral cooperation moves forward after the summit, particularly in terms of defense and security,” Chan says, adding that, “Beijing’s greatest fear is the emergence of a trilateral military alliance akin to an Asian NATO on its border.”
What’s more, Beijing will be looking to see whether there are any new agreements on tech that might give an indication, Chan says, of just “how far each country is willing to go in moving away from China economically.”
- The Camp David summit - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: How is America's "Pivot to Asia" playing out? - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel - GZERO Media ›
- Would US-Japan ties be hurt by a Trump re-election? - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Xi Jinping's nationalist agenda is rebuilding walls around China - GZERO Media ›
US President Joe Biden and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands as they attend a bilateral meeting at Akasaka Palace in Tokyo.
Mr. Kishida (finally) goes to Washington
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with US President Joe Biden on Friday. Although they met on several occasions in 2022, including in Tokyo and in New York, this meeting will be Kishida’s first at the White House. Plans for a visit a year ago were derailed by the pandemic.
Kishida arrives at a moment of political weakness. After the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe in July, Kishida has had to fend off domestic criticism of his decision to hold a state funeral for Abe, deal with public anger over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ties to the Unification Church (or the “Moonies”), and tame rising inflation. But he hasn’t had much success. His approval ratings began to nosedive in July and by year-end were at rock bottom for a Japanese prime minister, in the low 30s.
Kishida will probably enjoy being away from the full-contact sport of Japanese domestic politics during his trip and instead being back in the diplomatic limelight. He served as Abe’s foreign minister for nearly five years, so he is very comfortable in that more civilized milieu.
To get a preview of Kishida’s meeting with Biden, we had a chat with David Boling, Eurasia Group’s lead Japan analyst.
Why is Kishida coming to Washington now?
A big reason is the Japanese domestic political calendar. Japan’s parliament is between sessions right now, with the next one starting at the end of the month. It’s the ideal time for Kishida to get out of Tokyo.
Also, Kishida hopes that meeting with Biden may boost his sagging approval ratings. This trip to the White House will be top news in Japan, dominating all media outlets. Having the White House as the backdrop will be a nice political win for Kishida, who has not had many lately.
Finally, Japan holds the G-7 presidency this year, with the May summit taking place in Kishida’s home electoral district of Hiroshima. Kishida wants to set Japan’s priorities, including on nuclear non-proliferation and national security. He also traveled this week to France, Italy, the UK, and Canada to meet with those countries’ leaders. The White House will be his last stop, yet by far the most important one on this trip.
What does Kishida want out of the visit to Washington?
Summits always have an overarching theme. This one’s focus will be national security. In the lead-up to Kishida’s meeting with Biden, there was a so-called 2+2 meeting on Wednesday of the US and Japanese foreign and defense heads. They’ll be shaping the agenda for the leaders’ meeting.
Kishida will want Biden to reiterate his full support for Japan’s historic defense buildup plan, Japan’s presidency of the G-7, and Japan’s new two-year term as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Kishida may also raise deepening military cooperation with the US to protect remote Japanese islands near Taiwan.
Kishida would like to achieve with Biden what Abe did with former US President Donald Trump, that is, a kind of bromance. Kishida and Biden work well together, but they haven’t achieved the Abe-Trump level of closeness yet.
And what about Biden?
Japan has become America’s indispensable partner in pushing back against Chinese expansionism in Asia. Japan led the effort to create the Quad (a forum for defense cooperation among Australia, India, Japan, and the US) and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific initiative (which aims to counter China’s influence in the region). The US has embraced both.
The US-Japan alliance is as strong as it has ever been, largely in response to China’s growing belligerence. So, Biden will want Japan to just keep on keeping on.
Japan recently announced a plan to ramp up defense spending – how will that affect relations with the US, a treaty ally?
Biden will give Kishida a high five on Japan’s plan to double its defense spending to 2% of GDP. The US has been urging Japan for years to get real about the security threats coming from China and North Korea. Russia’s war in Ukraine has been the catalyst for Japan’s big rethink on defense, on which it has historically spent very little (compared to many NATO members, for example).
When Japan released its new National Security Strategy in mid-December, Washington in essence texted a big heart emoji to Tokyo. The White House, State Department, and Defense Department all issued press releases praising it. That’s remarkable.
What other topics will they discuss?
Economic security, an offshoot of national security, will also be on the agenda.
For instance, Kishida and Biden will discuss topics such as US export controls on selling advanced semiconductors to China, supply-chain resiliency in critical sectors, and how to counteract China’s economic coercion. In short, they’ll discuss trade not purely for trade’s sake but also for its impact on national security – directed at China.
Because these days, it’s all about China.