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Marines conduct combat rubber raiding craft operations from the well deck of the USS Green Bay in the Philippine Sea, Feb. 6, 2022. The US commander-in-chief said on Feb 22, 2022 he had authorised the movement of additional forces and equipment to bolster NATO allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as Russian troops being ordered to eastern Ukraine following Vladimir Putin recognition of the independence of two separatist regions.
NATO’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific
NATO was founded in 1949 as a counterweight to the Soviet Union, but 75 years on, the alliance’s gaze is shifting toward China. Its members are increasingly concerned about the evolving security dynamic in the Indo-Pacific and Beijing’s growing influence around the globe, which helps explain why leaders from New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Australia — countries that are partners with the alliance — are attending the NATO summit in Washington this week.
NATO in recent years has begun to see China as a “potential threat” and a shared challenge to be addressed amid efforts by Beijing to “undermine institutions in Europe” and “potentially threaten European infrastructure,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told GZERO Media on Tuesday at a meeting on the sidelines of the summit.
“There is a growing concern among NATO allies about PRC activities, and having Indo-Pacific countries at the summit this week is a great way to share perspectives on what they’re seeing,” Kirby added. “They’re actually feeling and seeing the threats by the PRC in a much more real, tangible way, in some cases, than NATO is.” Relatedly, Australia on Tuesday accused China-backed hackers of targeting government and private sector networks with cyberattacks.
NATO officially pointed to China as one of the alliance’s “challenges” for the first time back in 2019, breaking from its traditional focus on Europe and threats emanating from the Kremlin. The alliance has continued to characterize China as a security challenge in the time since, particularly in the face of growing cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.
China is not thrilled about NATO forging closer ties with countries in its neck of the woods and has effectively accused the alliance of trying to duplicate itself in the Indo-Pacific. NATO is “breaching its boundary, expanding its mandate, reaching beyond its defense zone and stoking confrontation,” Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Monday.
Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder, in comments to GZERO Media at a summit sideline event on Tuesday, denied that there is an effort to “build a NATO in the Indo-Pacific” and pointed to the war in Ukraine as one of the primary reasons the alliance is increasing cooperation with countries in the region. Between North Korea providing munitions to Russia to fuel its war machine and China offering other forms of support to Moscow, it’s no surprise that NATO believes it’s “important to have a relationship with countries in the Indo-Pacific to address these threats.”
Similarly, Kirby said that Indo-Pacific countries attending the NATO summit have “seen what’s happening in Ukraine and just won’t stand for it” and are trying to find ways to support Kyiv.
From the moment Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there have been concerns that it could serve as a model for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his ambitions in Asia — especially in relation to Taiwan.
China is closely watching what’s happening in Ukraine and what the world is doing in response, and “they’re learning lessons,” warned Kirby.
Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine's Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro shake hands after signing the reciprocal access agreement, at the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, July 8, 2024.
Can Japan afford to muscle up?
Japan and the Philippines signed a new defense pact on Monday, allowing the mutual deployment of forces to each other’s territory for training – part of a larger mutual effort to stave off China. But while Tokyo’s diplomats are sealing deals with much-needed allies, its defense officials are stressing that a weak yen threatens to eat up their budgets.
Before the Filipino deal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reached similar defense agreements with Australia and the UK, and he has established historically warmer ties with South Korea, improving political and military cooperation. He is also trying to double defense spending by 2027, which would make Japan the world’s third-largest military spender. So why is Tokyo slashing orders for new airplanes and warning of more cuts?
Violent riots have been taking place in Noumea since yesterday evening. Numerous shops and a number of houses have been set alight, looted or destroyed by young independantists, who reject the reform of the electoral freeze. In photo: view of Noumea, where many buildings are under fire. New Caledonia, Noumea, May 14, 2024.
Pas de TikTok! France cracks down on New Caledonia unrest
France declared a 12-day state of emergency and banned TikTok in its South Pacific territory of New Caledonia on Thursday after at least four people were killed and hundreds more injured in riots that broke out Monday. Members of the indigenous Kanak people are reacting to a new law passed over 10,000 miles away in Paris that would give some French citizens from the metropole local voting rights and potentially dilute Kanak sovereignty.
Residents in the capital, Nouméa, report being confined to their homes for over two days, sheltering from the gunfire outside. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal promised to send an additional 1,000 security officers to reinforce local authorities and justified removing access to TikTok because it was raising tensions.
At the heart of the violence is France’s strained relations with Kanak activists, who have pressed for independence since the 1980s. France has held independence referenda three times, each of which failed (though the most recent, 2021, was boycotted by pro-independence leaders). If the non-Kanak franchise is expanded, supporters of independence fear the window for self-determination could close entirely.
Paris expects to regain control of the situation shortly, but we’re watching for signs it might soft-pedal voting reforms to cool temperatures. It’s all an unwelcome distraction for French President Emmanuel Macron, who had hoped to turn political discourse toward his economic achievements ahead of EU elections, according to Eurasia Group analyst Mujtaba Rahman.A club for hemming China in
On Monday — the day that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters that Canada is interested in joining the AUKUS defense alliance — documents were released at a public inquiry that showed that Canada’s intelligence agency believes China “clandestinely and deceptively interfered in both the 2019 and 2021 general elections.”
Also on Monday, as Chinese ships carried out exercises in disputed waters in the South China Sea, the US, UK, and Australia announced that they were talking to Japan about inviting that country to participate in Pillar II of the security pact.
China’s growing military and political belligerence is rattling other countries, and they are responding by drawing together in a way that would have been out of the question a decade ago.
Neighbors under pressure
Pillar I of AUKUS, which was announced in 2021, is a collaboration between Australia, the Americans, and the Brits aimed at adding a powerful new capacity to Australia’s military: nuclear-powered (though conventionally armed) submarines. This is a huge spend for Australia — $368 billion over 30 years — that carries an inherent political risk. And to make the deal, Canberra had to blow up relations with France by abandoning a deal to buy French subs. The Aussies only did that after a year of tense political and economic confrontations with China that left decision-makers in that country gravely concerned about its future in a neighborhood dominated by Beijing. Australia’s back was against the wall.
Like Australia, Japan is being driven to closer cooperation with the United States by its concerns about an increasingly powerful and assertive China. Japan’s trade-focused economy depends on international shipping passing freely through the South China Sea, for instance, where China has been clashing with the Philippines.
So Tokyo has reason to be interested in Pillar II of the AUKUS arrangement, which focuses on defense technology sharing, including quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, and electronic warfare — all areas where China presents a technological challenge, and where Japan could offer expertise.
With China rapidly expanding its military, Japan has decided to break with its post-war pacifist tradition and dramatically increase defense spending.
Northern lightweights
Canada is also opening its checkbook, but at a much smaller scale, which would explain why the AUKUS partners are making a point of talking about doing business with Japan, rather than Canada.
Nobody is talking about adding other countries as full members, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Tuesday, but proceeding on a project-by-project basis.
Historically, Canada spends little on defense, falling well short of the 2% of GDP that NATO members have all agreed to spend. In an increasingly dangerous world, though, pressure is mounting for Canada to step up, and on Monday, Trudueau’s government did roll out a five-year plan to bring defense spending up to 1.76% of GDP by 2030, up from 1.38% last year.
Allies welcomed the announcement, but there was nothing significant enough to make Canada a much more desirable partner for AUKUS, says Eugene Lang, a former Liberal defense official turned Queens University professor. Officials are interested.
“I just don’t know that we're doing anything to get their attention,” he says. “What they're doing in AUKUS is investing in developing brand-new technologies. To my knowledge, Canada has not got any specific money set aside for any of that.”
University of Ottawa Professor Thomas Juneau, who has interviewed allied officials about Canada’s potential role in AUKUS, found that Canada is increasingly seen as a free rider in defense and intelligence circles. It’s not surprising that Japan was invited before Canada, he says.
“It's really normal for AUKUS to bring in Japan before Canada because Japan is not only a much bigger country than we are, but it's right next to China.”
Wolf warriors
On the other hand, because of its Five Eyes intelligence-sharing experience, Canada could more easily cooperate with AUKUS than Japan, says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group.
And while it may not be spending enough money to be taken seriously, the Trudeau government has moved to be more circumspect in its relationship with China, limiting Chinese investment in critical minerals and being cautious about research projects.
“The scales have fallen from a lot of politicians’ eyes in the West,” Thompson says. “The question remains, how do you have constructive diplomatic and economic relations with Beijing, while at the same time competing with them geopolitically and seeking to build up and maintain deterrence?”
China will object to the new alliances being organized around it, but don’t expect Beijing to stop buying sabers and rattling them.
“China has a rising economy, so the idea that its rising economic power wouldn't come with rising geopolitical ambition is a fantasy, and we've kind of believed in that fantasy for a while, not just in Canada but in other Western countries,” says Juneau.
“But it was a fantasy all along.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Republic of India during Modi’s Official State Visit to Washington DC.
India and the US talk China
In 2018, the two countries launched the “2+2 Dialogue” to boost defense cooperation and align policy objectives in the Indo-Pacific. India is still reeling from a skirmish in June 2020 — along the 2167-mile unmarked and disputed Himalayan border it shares with China — during which India’s military performed poorly and 20 of its soldiers died. Relations between the two nuclear-armed countries have since soured, giving the US and India a common cause in deterring Chinese aggression.
China has taken the US and India from distant allies to close partners — with the two conducting joint military exercises, working to strengthen the Indo-Pacific Quad alliance, and hosting each other for glitzy state visits. The US has even shown a willingness to overlook India’s human rights transgressions and prioritized deepening ties over Canada’s calls for the US to respond to India allegedly killing a Sikh community leader on Canadian soil.
The meetings are expected to solidify ongoing deals for the US and American companies to produce engines for Indian fighter jets and supply MQ-9 predator drones. , and build semiconductor manufacturing.
India-Canada: Trudeau's "perverse politics" threatens relations, says Samir Saran
India-Canada relations have hit a crisis point following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s bombshell allegation in September that India was responsible for the murder of a Sikh leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia last June. The fallout was swift: India’s foreign ministry dismissed the accusation as “absurd,” both countries expelled top diplomats, and tensions have escalated significantly.
“Friends don’t do this in public,” Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation think tank tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, “This was something that should have always been in the private mode.”
Relations between the two countries were already tense before the allegations. India has long been pushing Ottawa to be more assertive in curtailing the Khalistan movement within Canada–a separatist movement with the goal of establishing an independent Sikh state in India’s Punjab region.
The Khalistani movement is considered a terrorist organization by the Indian government, and Saran explains it's so problematic to the Indian public that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has broad support to respond forcefully to Canada’s allegations, even within the political opposition. But despite the growing tension, Saran believes there will always be a link between the two democracies.
“I don’t think this is about India or Indians having any problems with Canada,” Saran says, “I think it’s the Trudeau government’s perverse politics being brought into the spotlight in this part of the world.”
Watch the full interview: Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder? ›
- India fires fresh salvos in dispute with Canada ›
- Canada-India relations strained by murder allegation ›
- India and Canada expel diplomats, US treads carefully ›
- Ian Explains: Why India-Canada relations are tense over a mysterious murder ›
Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder?
In September, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leveled a bombshell accusation in Canada’s House of Commons: He announced there were “credible allegations” India was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader and Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia in June.
New Delhi immediately dismissed the claims as “absurd” and demanded any evidence be released publicly, which Canada has yet to do. But the diplomatic fallout was swift: Canada expelled the head of India’s security service in Canada, and New Delhi demanded dozens of Canadian diplomats leave India.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, a top Indian think tank, to discuss the fallout from the shocking allegations, the history of the Khalistan separatist movement within Canada, and where the two countries go from here, given their strong diasporic and economic links.
“I don't think this is about India or Indians having any problems with Canada,” Saran tells Bremmer, “I think it is Trudeau's government's perverse politics that is now being brought into the spotlight in this part of the world.”
Saran also unpacks the paradox of India’s relationship with China, its second-largest trading partner, as tension continues to rise on the Himalayan border.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Podcast: Death and diplomacy: A look at India-Canada tensions with Samir Saran
Listen: The GZERO World Podcast takes a look at an international murder mystery that dominated headlines in September: Canada's allegation that India was involved in the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June. New Delhi has dismissed the accusation as “absurd” and demanded any evidence be released publicly, which Canada has yet to do. But the diplomatic fallout has been swift: Canada expelled the head of India’s security service in Canada, and New Delhi demanded dozens of Canadian diplomats leave India.
Ian Bremmer speaks with Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, a top Indian think tank, to unpack the fallout from the shocking allegations, the history of the Khalistan separatist movement within Canada, and where the two countries go from here, given their strong diasporic and economic links. Saran also discusses the paradoxical nature of India’s relationship with China and tensions on the Himalayan border, India's role in the BRICS partnership as a leader of the Global South, and the feasibility of India's ambitious goal to get 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.