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FILE PHOTO: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump greet each other at a campaign event sponsored by conservative group Turning Point USA, in Duluth, Georgia, U.S., October 23, 2024.
All of Trump’s horses and all of Trump’s men
With world leaders descending upon Brazil this week for the annual G20 summit, the specter of Donald Trump’s return looms all around. The summit, along with this month’s COP29 climate summit, bookend the Biden interregnum - a period that opened with a deadly global pandemic and saw the start of two wars.
As we now know, foreign policy did not determine the 2024 election outcome. The pivotal question voters wrestled with was the one Trump put to them: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” A majority of voters across the electoral map answered this question in the negative. Despite the hyper-polarized political moment, and all the fault lines in US politics – gender, generational, racial, party identification – it was the economic one that proved most salient.
Yet, when Trump is inaugurated in January, he will take the helm of the United States at a moment of vast geopolitical uncertainty. By Trump’s own assessment, the world is on the brink of World War III. In an interview earlier this year, Yuval Noah Hariri suggested that WWIII may have already started with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and “we just don’t know it yet.” Certainly, reports of North Korean troop deployment to the Russia-Ukraine war theater do little to assuage these fears. Nor does US President Joe Biden’s late-in-the-game policy shift this weekend to allow Ukraine to deploy US-provided, long-range missiles to strike inside Russian territory.
Since his resolute victory two weeks ago, Trump has made quick work assembling the team he wants around him for the challenges ahead. It is a team of loyalists and Trump-world insiders (many Washington outsiders) tasked with preventing World War III, restoring peace in Europe and the Middle East, and putting the world together again.
With his cabinet and leadership selections, Trump makes clear that direction will come from the very top. Appointees will be expected to execute the president’s agenda. The pick of veteran and television host Pete Hegseth to lead the Department of Defense is perhaps the clearest indicator of the model to come.
With Europe deeply on edge about whether the US will remain steadfastly committed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Ukraine, and Europe’s common defense, Hegseth’s bureaucratic inexperience offers little clarity or comfort. Known more for his television work and pardon advocacy than any particular security policy position, Hegseth’s promotion to American dignitary has left Europe scratching its collective head. It signals to European leaders that Trump’s transactional, unpredictable approach will dictate the next four years.
Elsewhere, in the Indo-Pacific, a giant question mark hangs over how the second Trump administration plans to engage with a host of partnerships and plans initiated by Biden. Outgoing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his counterparts in Australia and Japan this weekend for a Trilateral Defense Ministers’ Meeting. In a joint statement following the session, the leaders affirmed the longevity and enduring commitment of the partnership.
With the US-China relationship the essential quandary of our times, will Hegseth (and Trump) remain committed to these relationships? What happens to AUKUS, the trilateral partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US that’s viewed by Australians as so critical to their security? What about the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with members of the same group plus India? Each of these pillars is viewed by Biden as foundational for the region’s geopolitics, and yet incoming Trump personnel have provided scant details of their plans.
While much is being made of Trump’s flashier picks – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a newly formed Department of Government Efficiency – it is the repeat performers who telegraph Trump’s policy priorities. As he said every day on the campaign trail, these are immigration, trade, and the economy.
The return of former Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Thomas Homan, now as “border czar,” coupled with Stephen Miller as Trump’s deputy chief of staff, confirm Trump 2.0 will be ideologically tough and swift-acting on immigration. Trump implemented 472 executive orders on immigration during his first term. Homan and Miller will be hard at work over the next few months readying actions for Trump’s signature on his first day back in the Oval Office.
On trade, everyone overseas is on pins and needles over Trump’s tariff threats. European political leaders and business executives are kept up at night worrying over whether Trump will seek to impose a universal tariff of 10-20% on imported goods, and, if so, under what authority. Against this backdrop, the reported return of former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to an expanded “trade czar” role is being closely watched. Both Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act will be relevant channels for Trump’s tariff ambitions. Having Lighthizer by his side provides the president with a dedicated co-pilot.
Finally, that Trump has seemingly taken the most time to land on his picks to lead the Treasury and Commerce departments is unsurprising. Trump’s election, his mandate, and his plans both at home and abroad in his next term each depend on his administration’s ability to execute its economic vision. Trump’s tax extensions, corporate tax cuts, and economic tools of national security like tariffs and sanctions, must also take action on the pivotal question Trump asked voters in November – they must feel better in four years than they do today.
The pace of Trump’s appointment decisions is evidence that he is ready to get to work. The sooner he can roll back Biden’s initiatives and implement the policies he has been discussing again and again over the last four years, the sooner he can remake the US and America’s role in the world in his image.
Trump’s Team of … Reprisals?
Trump team … Assemble!
Usually, obsession with team building is reserved for the world of sports, not politics. There are Hollywood movies about NFL draft day, and the trade deadlines in basketball, hockey, and baseball command all-day TV specials. But those seem trivial compared to the global obsession with Trump Team 2.0. Who is on it, and what does it mean for the next four years?
Cabinet-building has long been crucial for both the success of a presidency and for the direction of the United States. From the presidencies of Abraham Lincoln to Donald Trump, the team often tells the tale of power.
After narrowly winning the election of 1860, Lincoln knew the United States was lurching toward civil war. He needed a united team to take on the emerging secessionist Confederacy, but he didn’t choose loyalists. Instead, he made a radical choice to bring in his chief opponents like William Seward, Salmon Chase, and Edward Bates. In her bestselling book, Doris Kearns Goodwin called this a “Team of Rivals.”
Initially, it looked like a rookie mistake. Seward tried to sabotage Lincoln, leaking false announcements about a surrender of Fort Sumter, the place where, soon after, the first shots of the Civil War were fired.
But Lincoln asserted his leadership without alienating his team, and Seward soon became one of his closest confidants. Co-opting and including his chief opponents is roundly hailed as one of Lincoln’s finest strategies.
If Lincoln put together a team of rivals, Trump has assembled a team of reprisals. This is a group of ardent MAGA loyalists, not rivals — as Ian Bremmer pointed out in our GZERO video. Their job is to radically transform every part of government, from trade policy to foreign policy. There are three goals: reformation, reduction, and reprisal. And that last point is critical. The foundational promise Trump made to voters was to smash “the enemies within.” And that is exactly what this team is built to do.
Here is a starter menu:
- The Deep State: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to actively find “efficiencies” and dismantle large swaths of the government. “You’re fired” will be the watchwords.
- The Military: Pete Hegseth, the veteran and Fox News commentator, is headed for the secretary of defense job, where he has long said he would fire all generals who support programs like Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.
- The Border: Tom Homan, the nominated “border czar,” has warned all illegal aliens to get ready for mass deportation, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be Trump’s Homeland Security chief working alongside Homan.
- The Department of Education: Trump has promised to close this down completely to stop the so-called “woke agenda.”
- The Environmental Protection Agency: Expect former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin to gut EPA regulations. He has already signaled his priorities, with a social media post saying he will “restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.” The EPA might have to change its initials to the DBD, for Drill, Baby, Drill. Still, there are some signs of resistance here. Even the CEO of ExxonMobil pushed back, saying, “I don’t think the challenge or the need to address global emissions is going to go away.”
- Trade: China hawk Sen. Marco Rubio will be the secretary of state, likely overseeing a world of high tariffs that will trigger trade wars alongside the existing wars already raging.
- The Legal System: Matt Gaetz’s nomination for attorney general is taking the most incoming. Gaetz believes he and Trump are victims of Democratic “lawfare,” and he’s ready to hit back. “The hammer of Justice is coming,” declared Elon Musk on X, lest anyone think there will be no reprisals.
To Trump supporters — and that means the majority of voters — this is exactly what they wanted. Expect them to follow through on everything you heard on the campaign trail. As folks used to say, take Trump and his team both seriously and literally.
The president-elect has long claimed he is the victim of multiple attacks from the establishment because he promised to “drain the swamp” and, unlike in 2016, he’s wasting no time assembling a team to fight back. Of the many things to expect from Donald Trump, reprisals are at the top of the list.
How to cover the Trump team fairly?
Covering this transition in a meaningful, insightful way requires genuine balance and adherence to fairness. In the current climate of hyper-polarization, anything but praise for the president-elect can be cast as “woke” bias from the “lamestream” media. On the other hand, anything positive about Trump is often cast as supplicant cozying up to a kleptocracy.
Neither is helpful.
The key is not to focus on the fertilized fears on social media but on the real actions of the Trump team. What will they actually do? Who is benefiting from the radical change?
What will be the impact of their policies on the economy, rights, security, climate, and social coherence?
Each question will have a specific answer, and tracking them with facts and credibility will be key over the next four years. In an environment where distrust and disinformation are weaponized, straight talk and nonpartisan insight will become more valuable than ever.
This is just the beginning of the second Trump era, and it will be significantly more transformative than the first. Trump’s Team of Reprisals is ready to do exactly what they promised on the campaign trail, best summed up in three words: fight, fight fight.
Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant speaks next to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv , Israel , 28 October 2023.
Israeli cabinet meets to decide on Iran response
Israel’s cabinet met Thursday night to debate and vote on a response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile barrage, but the results have not been made public. Iran’s attack on the Jewish state last week came in response to Israel killing high-level members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant previously said retaliation would be “deadly, precise and, above all, surprising” and the cabinet was expected to authorize a response at the discretion of Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The meeting came just ahead of Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement and holiest day of the year in Judaism.
As Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan told GZERO earlier this week, targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure would hurt its economy. We’re watching for escalation, as the current tit for tat began with the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli forces carried out the deadliest strikes on Beirut yet, with at least 22 killed in one of the world’s oldest cities. Israeli soldiers also injured an unknown number of UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, where at least three UN posts came under fire.Cyril Ramaphosa attends the oath of office ceremony for his second term as South African President at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, South Africa, 19 June 2024.
South Africa gets a new cabinet
President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled South Africa’s new cabinet on Sunday, ushering in a new era of coalition governance for the Rainbow Nation. The move comes after the African National Congress lost its majority for the first time in 30 years in the May election, forcing Ramphosa’s party to enter a coalition government with its historic rival, the white-majority Democratic Alliance.
Ramaphosa announced that 32 positions were awarded across seven parties. The ANC retains the majority of seats, with 20, and has kept key ministries, including finance, foreign affairs (crucial in allowing continuity in their pro-Palestinian agenda and ICJ case), trade, and defense. The DA, after demanding 11 slots, was only assigned six, including key ministries like education and infrastructure, and DA leader John Steenhuisen was appointed agriculture minister. The remainder were divided among smaller parties.
Absent, but not silent. The uMkhonto weSizwe party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, came in third in the election but refused to join the coalition. The party has since found its voice as the outspoken leader of the Parliament’s opposition alliance.
Tensions remain high. The ANC has been systematically trying to dilute the DA’s influence by expanding the governing coalition to include 10 opposition parties, assigning them minimal portfolios. The difficult negotiations signaled converging economic policies, particularly on health care and Black economic empowerment, as well as deep distrust, with Ramaphosa accusing the DA of attempting to form a “parallel government.”
Will they play nice? As seen by the weeks of deadlocked cabinet negotiations, the parties still struggle to set aside decades of animosity, which could lead to instability, but the ANC and DA – at least for now – are committed to working together. We’ll be watching to see whether the coalition is stable enough to survive Zuma’s dedicated political instigation.
Jokowi may announce Cabinet reshuffle this week
Indonesian President Joko Widodo is expected to announce as early as this week a much-anticipated Cabinet reshuffle to replace underperforming ministers, including two ministers recently arrested for corruption, and maybe Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto.
Indonesian President Joko may reshuffle Cabinet as early as next week: Sources
He is expected to replace underperforming ministers, including Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto and two ministers recently arrested for corruption.
Thai Finance Minister Predee Daochai submits resignation: Govt sources
BANGKOK (REUTERS) - Thailand's recently appointed Finance Minister Predee Daochai has submitted his resignation, but the prime minister has not yet accepted it, two government sources said on Tuesday (Sept 1).
Modi's cabinet of old hands and heavyweight newcomers must perform
NEW DELHI - Bouyed by a thumping win at the recent general election, India's prime minister Narendra Modi has a chosen a new cabinet comprising of experienced hands and heavyweight newcomers leading analysts to conclude that his focus will be on performance.