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Cyril Ramaphosa attends the oath of office ceremony for his second term as South African President at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, South Africa, 19 June 2024.
South Africa gets a new cabinet
President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled South Africa’s new cabinet on Sunday, ushering in a new era of coalition governance for the Rainbow Nation. The move comes after the African National Congress lost its majority for the first time in 30 years in the May election, forcing Ramphosa’s party to enter a coalition government with its historic rival, the white-majority Democratic Alliance.
Ramaphosa announced that 32 positions were awarded across seven parties. The ANC retains the majority of seats, with 20, and has kept key ministries, including finance, foreign affairs (crucial in allowing continuity in their pro-Palestinian agenda and ICJ case), trade, and defense. The DA, after demanding 11 slots, was only assigned six, including key ministries like education and infrastructure, and DA leader John Steenhuisen was appointed agriculture minister. The remainder were divided among smaller parties.
Absent, but not silent. The uMkhonto weSizwe party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, came in third in the election but refused to join the coalition. The party has since found its voice as the outspoken leader of the Parliament’s opposition alliance.
Tensions remain high. The ANC has been systematically trying to dilute the DA’s influence by expanding the governing coalition to include 10 opposition parties, assigning them minimal portfolios. The difficult negotiations signaled converging economic policies, particularly on health care and Black economic empowerment, as well as deep distrust, with Ramaphosa accusing the DA of attempting to form a “parallel government.”
Will they play nice? As seen by the weeks of deadlocked cabinet negotiations, the parties still struggle to set aside decades of animosity, which could lead to instability, but the ANC and DA – at least for now – are committed to working together. We’ll be watching to see whether the coalition is stable enough to survive Zuma’s dedicated political instigation.
South African president Cyril Ramaphosa casts his vote during the South African elections in Soweto, South Africa May 29, 2024
Can the ANC make new friends and keep the old (president)?
For the first time in 30 years, South Africa’s African National Congress failed to win a majority in this month’s election, forcing it to turn to opposition parties in hopes of forming a coalition.
The most likely option now seems to be a multiparty coalition, similar to Nelson Mandela’s post-apartheid transitional government. This would allow the ANC to maintain its power by partnering with smaller, less established parties and, notably, the Economic Freedom Fighters, which underperformed in the election. According to Eurasia Group analyst Ziyanda Stuurman, this government is most favorable to the ANC as it would “keep Cyril Ramaphosa as president and provide at least some stability across the political landscape.”
A coalition with former president Jacob Zuma’s newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe party appears highly unlikely because its leader refuses to cooperate unless Ramaphosa steps down, which is non-negotiable for the ANC. Early predictions saw a likely coalition forming between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance, the leading opposition party thatwon almost 22% of the vote. But the two diverge on economic policies and affirmative action, and racial tensions between them are high.
South Africa is in uncharted waters, as the ANC is forced to make new friends for the first time. The uncertainty is making hard times in Africa’s biggest economy even worse, with the randweakening by another 1.3% on Wednesday. The ruling party is running out of time to form a coalition, as the Parliament must sit by June 16 to pick the next leader of this young democracy.
A worker removes a campaign banner of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa after an African National Congress event ahead of the upcoming elections in Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024.
South Africa’s landmark election: Will the ANC be out?
Over 50 parties are vying for the votes of the country’s 28 million citizens, but two of them could take South Africa in radically different directions. The first is the country’s main opposition party, the pro-business, mostly white-led, centrist Democratic Alliance. Leader John Steenhuisen has already gathered smaller opposition parties, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, to form the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa, pledging to combine their votes to challenge the ANC to form a government.
The second is the Marxist, Black-led Economic Freedom Fighters party, whose leader, former ANC politician Julius Malema,is calling for the nationalization of the country’s gold and platinum mines and the seizure of land from white farmers. Malema could be a kingmaker should the ANC need third-party support, a scenario Steenhuisen describes as“doomsday” for South Africa.
And while formerPresident Jacob Zuma cannot run in this year’s election due to convictions for corruption, observers see him as another potential kingmaker, wielding power behind the scenes through hisuMkhonto weSizwe Party.
Whatever the result, a coalition government would be inherently unstable. In the view of Eurasia analystZiyanda Stuurman, “I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.”
Members of the armed wing of Nelson Mandela's African National Congress line up waiting to vote in a military base north of Pretoria, on April 26, 1994.
South Africa still struggles with inequality 30 years after apartheid
Thirty years ago this weekend, South Africa ushered in its first democratic government.
On April 27, 1994, Black South Africans went to the polls, marking an end to years of white minority rule and the institutionalized racial segregation known as apartheid.
Freedom Day, as that day is commemorated, gave rise to South Africa’s first Black president, Nelson Mandela. The internal protests and violence over apartheid, as well as international sanctions, were relegated to the annals of history, ushering in a new era of promise for racial equality and prosperity.
But three decades later, the “rainbow nation” still faces many challenges, with racial equality and economic development remaining out of reach.
The country struggles with some of the highest inequality levels of any nation worldwide, says Ziyanda Stuurman, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group. “Many young people, in particular, are unemployed and feel despondent about finding work,” she says.
Three main factors have led to persistent inequality. First, South Africa’s unemployment rate is a whopping 32% – the highest globally. Those with secure jobs tend to be non-unionized and, as a result, see lower earnings. And, finally, workers who do well tend to make very high salaries compared to the lower-wage earners, bolstering the poverty gap.
“Due to a lack of economic opportunities and financial inclusion for the majority of Black South Africans,” says Stuurman, “many have not been able to make the most of the expanded political freedoms and opportunities in democratic-era South Africa.”
Since 1994, Mandela’s African National Congress party has been at the helm, but the lack of economic growth and rising inequality may be driving a change of heart among the electorate.
Next month, on May 29, South Africa heads to the polls again for its seventh general election since the end of apartheid. For the first time, polls suggest that the ANC may fail to win 50% of the national vote – which could mean tricky coalition talks or even its exit from power.
Stay tuned to GZERO. We’ll talk more with Stuurman in the coming weeks to gain insights about South Africa’s big election.Newly re-elected president of the African National Congress
South Africa's divided opposition boosts the ANC
The Democratic Alliance, the country’s largest opposition bloc, has formed alliances with smaller parties. But many black South Africans continue to see the DA as a white-dominated party, though the party leadership is much more multi-racial than a decade ago. More importantly, new opposition candidates continue to emerge to lead new parties that remain outside the “charter” meant to unify challengers to push the ANC from power.
South Africa’s high unemployment, weak economy, and crumbling infrastructure have created voter demand for an ANC alternative. But until a single standard-bearer can win a clear majority of the anti-ANC vote, single-party rule looks likely to continue. That’s good political news for Ramaphosa, but the country’s chronic economic problems are likely to continue.
Members of parliament hold placards after the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, March 20, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Slim win for Macron, protests in South Africa, Trump’s legal woes, Colombia peace collapsing?
Macron’s narrow escape
It came down to the wire, but Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in France’s National Assembly on Monday, with 278 voting to topple the government, nine votes shy of the threshold needed to pass.
Quick recap: The motion was triggered after Macron used a constitutional provision last week -- bypassing a vote in the lower house -- to pass a controversial pension reform despite weeks of protests (more on that here).
Not only do 70% of French adults abhor Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62 by 2030 – which he says is necessary to plug the growing debt hole – but the French electorate, which has long had a libertarian streak, is also furious that the government used what it says is an anti-democratic loophole to pass the measure.
Macron’s troubles are only just beginning. Hundreds were arrested in Paris over the weekend and on Monday as anti-government protests turned violent and smelly. Unions have called for nationwide demonstrations and strikes in a bid to pressure the government to roll back the measures (which will never happen).
Prime Minister Élizabeth Borne will likely take the fall and resign. Still, Macron, already unpopular before this debacle, will emerge a diminished political figure. After previously saying he understood that people were “tired of reforms which come from above,” it will be very hard for the ideological chameleon to regain the trust of vast swathes of the population.
South Africa’s day of demonstrations
Amid rolling blackouts and a slumping economy, the Marxist-linked Economic Freedom Fighters Party called for a national day of protests Monday, putting law enforcement on high alert.
The EFF, the country’s third-largest party led by longtime leader Julius Malema, is largely backed by poor Black South Africans, many of whom live in townships, as well as younger voters who feel they haven't benefited from the ruling African National Congress Party’s tenure in the post-apartheid era. Indeed, around one-third of South Africans are out of work and the economy is slated to grow by just 0.3% in 2023, down from 2.5% in 2022.
President Cyril Ramaphosa mobilized more than 3,000 troops nationwide in anticipation of mass protests. But turnout was lower than expected, prompting Malema to claim that the government was blocking buses transporting protesters.
The EFF “will still claim the wall-to-wall media coverage around the protests as a victory,” says Ziyanda Sturrman, a South Africa expert at Eurasia Group.
None of this is good news for Ramaphosa, who, after a series of political scandals, looks set to lose his parliamentary majority in next year’s general election. Still, Stuurman notes that if the ANC falls just below the 50% threshold, several small parties have already put their hands up to join an ANC-led coalition.
Trump vs. prosecutors
Former US President Donald Trump faces possible legal challenges on multiple fronts. The state of New York could charge him with fraud for alleged hush money payments to a porn star. The Justice Department could charge him with many suspected crimes related to efforts to overthrow the result of the 2020 election as well as the misuse of hundreds of classified documents recovered by the FBI from his Florida home. Prosecutors in Georgia could charge him with election fraud as part of his alleged effort to overturn that state’s 2020 election result.
If Trump is indicted, he’ll likely present himself for charges, while also calling for protests. He would then be released on bond pending trial, and it’s unlikely that any trial in any of these potential cases would take place in 2023.
Trump would continue his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. There’s nothing in the US Constitution to prevent him from being elected president. His fate would remain with voters. If elected, his presidency would begin in court. In theory, a president could pardon himself for federal crimes. That would have to be tested. But no president can pardon state-level crimes, like those he might be charged with in New York and Georgia. In short, prosecutors and Trump may be about to steer American politics into uncharted waters.
Colombia: Is Petro’s “total peace” going to pieces?
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro took office last year pledging to reach a negotiated “total peace” with the country’s various armed and criminal groups. But on Monday that strategy took a big hit when he was forced to suspend a three-month-old ceasefire with the fearsome Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan), the Andean region’s most powerful narco-trafficking outfit. The Clan had allegedly attacked an aqueduct and opened fire on police officers.
The move puts Petro in a tough spot — ramping up military action risks escalating a conflict he was elected in part to end peacefully. But allowing cartels to run riot isn’t an option either.
The setback comes amid a broader season of discontent for Petro: a corruption investigation of his son, the departure of several key coalition ministers, and an approval rating that is net-negative barely six months since he took office.
Petro, a former guerilla who is the country’s first left-wing president, has made an effort to build bridges across the political spectrum so far. But his critics worry that if the going gets tougher, he might resort to a more populist style that could be explosive in a country as polarized as Colombia.
South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Viewpoint: Is it a make-or-break year for South Africa’s president?
Eurasia Group's Africa Director Shridaran Pillay looks at the year ahead for President Cyril Ramaphosa.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is struggling to resolve numerous deep-rooted problems in South Africa: high unemployment, low economic growth, rolling electricity blackouts, and the wage demands of public-sector unions that continually threaten to derail public finances. But to effectively deal with these challenges, he first must shore up his own political position.
At the ruling African National Congress’s elective conference in December, Ramaphosa will try to obtain a new term as party president and place close allies in other important positions. That would allow him to unify a divided party, press ahead with needed economic reforms, and continue with an anti-corruption campaign aimed at reforming the ANC's image ahead of the 2024 election and sidelining opponents to his agenda.
Internal party tensions are mounting ahead of the December event. This week, Ramaphosa’s opponents struck back with allegations of money laundering leveled against him by former intelligence chief Arthur Fraser. A member of the Radical Economic Transformation faction of disgraced former president Jacob Zuma, Fraser charges that Ramaphosa sought to cover up the theft of a large amount of undeclared cash from his wildlife farm in 2020. Ramaphosa denies any wrongdoing, but members of the RET are calling for him to step down, and there will be a police investigation. Moreover, the allegations may further tarnish the president’s anti-corruption credentials after an inquiry into corruption under Zuma implicated several of Ramaphosa’s close associates earlier this year.
Fortunately for the president, the arrest this week in the UAE of two key players in the corruption schemes that proliferated under Zuma will deflect some of the attention away from the allegations made against him by Fraser. The detention and expected extradition to South Africa of Athul and Rajesh Gupta is a victory for Ramaphosa’s pledge to bring corrupt figures to justice and could lead to revelations that will further damage the RET.
The charges against Ramaphosa and the arrest of the Gupta brothers will capture much of the political focus in the months ahead. The allegations against Ramaphosa may represent the RET faction’s last good chance to oust him. Zuma is unlikely to wield much influence at the December elective conference; the litany of corruption cases filed against him has resulted in his isolation from ANC politics and the decline of his once-powerful faction. The RET, in fact, has been leaderless since the suspension of ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule over corruption charges, and any attempt by the faction to challenge Ramaphosa’s reelection is probably doomed to fail. It is possible, however, that Ramaphosa might have to accommodate the RET by awarding it some leadership positions in order to truly unify the party.
Ramaphosa has built a reputation as a patient strategist who plays the long game. Since assuming office in 2018, he has quietly moved allies into key positions. He has also rebuilt state prosecution capabilities and the party disciplinary mechanism to deal with those accused of corruption. This has helped him remove many of the opponents to his plans to implement a new style of governance. Similarly, he secured the passage of new party bylaws that prevent those accused of corruption from running for party leadership posts.
Yet he has made only incremental progress on the governance and economic overhauls needed to solve problems, such as the lack of access to electricity and water, that have sapped support for the government and the ANC. His efforts on this front have been undermined by a weak cabinet and the need to cater to the interests of the ANC elites he relies on.
That is why the December elective conference is shaping up as such an important test. If Ramaphosa can overcome the latest allegations against him and place allies in the majority of the other five leadership positions up for election in December – deputy president, chairperson, secretary-general, deputy secretary-general, and treasurer-general – that would allow him to focus on his plans to make government more accountable and reinvigorate the economy.
If he fails, he would be forced to continue his delicate balancing act of advancing reforms while maintaining party unity. The country’s problems would fester, public discontent would mount, and the ANC would be at risk of losing its ruling majority in the 2024 elections.
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A man walks past Sinn Fein election posters along the nationalist Falls Road in Belfast.
What We're Watching: Elections in Northern Ireland, South African president in trouble
Northern Ireland’s choice
On Thursday, voters across the UK head to the polls for local elections, but it’s the contest in Northern Ireland that might make history. Sinn Féin is expected to finish with the most seats in Northern Ireland’s assembly. Its victory would be more symbolic than immediately substantive, since power in the assembly must be shared between the two lead parties, and Sinn Féin has focused its campaign on today’s economic hardship, not on a century of Irish partition. But the symbolism matters. A Sinn Féin win would mark the first time in Northern Ireland’s 101-year history that the UK province is led by a party that supports reunification with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. It would make Sinn Féin the most popular party on both sides of the Irish border. And it would prove deeply embarrassing for UK PM Boris Johnson, who is fighting for his scandal-plagued political life at the moment and considering another battle with the European Union over Northern Ireland’s place in the EU’s single market.