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Newly re-elected president of the African National Congress
South Africa's divided opposition boosts the ANC
The Democratic Alliance, the country’s largest opposition bloc, has formed alliances with smaller parties. But many black South Africans continue to see the DA as a white-dominated party, though the party leadership is much more multi-racial than a decade ago. More importantly, new opposition candidates continue to emerge to lead new parties that remain outside the “charter” meant to unify challengers to push the ANC from power.
South Africa’s high unemployment, weak economy, and crumbling infrastructure have created voter demand for an ANC alternative. But until a single standard-bearer can win a clear majority of the anti-ANC vote, single-party rule looks likely to continue. That’s good political news for Ramaphosa, but the country’s chronic economic problems are likely to continue.
Members of parliament hold placards after the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, March 20, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Slim win for Macron, protests in South Africa, Trump’s legal woes, Colombia peace collapsing?
Macron’s narrow escape
It came down to the wire, but Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in France’s National Assembly on Monday, with 278 voting to topple the government, nine votes shy of the threshold needed to pass.
Quick recap: The motion was triggered after Macron used a constitutional provision last week -- bypassing a vote in the lower house -- to pass a controversial pension reform despite weeks of protests (more on that here).
Not only do 70% of French adults abhor Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62 by 2030 – which he says is necessary to plug the growing debt hole – but the French electorate, which has long had a libertarian streak, is also furious that the government used what it says is an anti-democratic loophole to pass the measure.
Macron’s troubles are only just beginning. Hundreds were arrested in Paris over the weekend and on Monday as anti-government protests turned violent and smelly. Unions have called for nationwide demonstrations and strikes in a bid to pressure the government to roll back the measures (which will never happen).
Prime Minister Élizabeth Borne will likely take the fall and resign. Still, Macron, already unpopular before this debacle, will emerge a diminished political figure. After previously saying he understood that people were “tired of reforms which come from above,” it will be very hard for the ideological chameleon to regain the trust of vast swathes of the population.
South Africa’s day of demonstrations
Amid rolling blackouts and a slumping economy, the Marxist-linked Economic Freedom Fighters Party called for a national day of protests Monday, putting law enforcement on high alert.
The EFF, the country’s third-largest party led by longtime leader Julius Malema, is largely backed by poor Black South Africans, many of whom live in townships, as well as younger voters who feel they haven't benefited from the ruling African National Congress Party’s tenure in the post-apartheid era. Indeed, around one-third of South Africans are out of work and the economy is slated to grow by just 0.3% in 2023, down from 2.5% in 2022.
President Cyril Ramaphosa mobilized more than 3,000 troops nationwide in anticipation of mass protests. But turnout was lower than expected, prompting Malema to claim that the government was blocking buses transporting protesters.
The EFF “will still claim the wall-to-wall media coverage around the protests as a victory,” says Ziyanda Sturrman, a South Africa expert at Eurasia Group.
None of this is good news for Ramaphosa, who, after a series of political scandals, looks set to lose his parliamentary majority in next year’s general election. Still, Stuurman notes that if the ANC falls just below the 50% threshold, several small parties have already put their hands up to join an ANC-led coalition.
Trump vs. prosecutors
Former US President Donald Trump faces possible legal challenges on multiple fronts. The state of New York could charge him with fraud for alleged hush money payments to a porn star. The Justice Department could charge him with many suspected crimes related to efforts to overthrow the result of the 2020 election as well as the misuse of hundreds of classified documents recovered by the FBI from his Florida home. Prosecutors in Georgia could charge him with election fraud as part of his alleged effort to overturn that state’s 2020 election result.
If Trump is indicted, he’ll likely present himself for charges, while also calling for protests. He would then be released on bond pending trial, and it’s unlikely that any trial in any of these potential cases would take place in 2023.
Trump would continue his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. There’s nothing in the US Constitution to prevent him from being elected president. His fate would remain with voters. If elected, his presidency would begin in court. In theory, a president could pardon himself for federal crimes. That would have to be tested. But no president can pardon state-level crimes, like those he might be charged with in New York and Georgia. In short, prosecutors and Trump may be about to steer American politics into uncharted waters.
Colombia: Is Petro’s “total peace” going to pieces?
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro took office last year pledging to reach a negotiated “total peace” with the country’s various armed and criminal groups. But on Monday that strategy took a big hit when he was forced to suspend a three-month-old ceasefire with the fearsome Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan), the Andean region’s most powerful narco-trafficking outfit. The Clan had allegedly attacked an aqueduct and opened fire on police officers.
The move puts Petro in a tough spot — ramping up military action risks escalating a conflict he was elected in part to end peacefully. But allowing cartels to run riot isn’t an option either.
The setback comes amid a broader season of discontent for Petro: a corruption investigation of his son, the departure of several key coalition ministers, and an approval rating that is net-negative barely six months since he took office.
Petro, a former guerilla who is the country’s first left-wing president, has made an effort to build bridges across the political spectrum so far. But his critics worry that if the going gets tougher, he might resort to a more populist style that could be explosive in a country as polarized as Colombia.
South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Viewpoint: Is it a make-or-break year for South Africa’s president?
Eurasia Group's Africa Director Shridaran Pillay looks at the year ahead for President Cyril Ramaphosa.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is struggling to resolve numerous deep-rooted problems in South Africa: high unemployment, low economic growth, rolling electricity blackouts, and the wage demands of public-sector unions that continually threaten to derail public finances. But to effectively deal with these challenges, he first must shore up his own political position.
At the ruling African National Congress’s elective conference in December, Ramaphosa will try to obtain a new term as party president and place close allies in other important positions. That would allow him to unify a divided party, press ahead with needed economic reforms, and continue with an anti-corruption campaign aimed at reforming the ANC's image ahead of the 2024 election and sidelining opponents to his agenda.
Internal party tensions are mounting ahead of the December event. This week, Ramaphosa’s opponents struck back with allegations of money laundering leveled against him by former intelligence chief Arthur Fraser. A member of the Radical Economic Transformation faction of disgraced former president Jacob Zuma, Fraser charges that Ramaphosa sought to cover up the theft of a large amount of undeclared cash from his wildlife farm in 2020. Ramaphosa denies any wrongdoing, but members of the RET are calling for him to step down, and there will be a police investigation. Moreover, the allegations may further tarnish the president’s anti-corruption credentials after an inquiry into corruption under Zuma implicated several of Ramaphosa’s close associates earlier this year.
Fortunately for the president, the arrest this week in the UAE of two key players in the corruption schemes that proliferated under Zuma will deflect some of the attention away from the allegations made against him by Fraser. The detention and expected extradition to South Africa of Athul and Rajesh Gupta is a victory for Ramaphosa’s pledge to bring corrupt figures to justice and could lead to revelations that will further damage the RET.
The charges against Ramaphosa and the arrest of the Gupta brothers will capture much of the political focus in the months ahead. The allegations against Ramaphosa may represent the RET faction’s last good chance to oust him. Zuma is unlikely to wield much influence at the December elective conference; the litany of corruption cases filed against him has resulted in his isolation from ANC politics and the decline of his once-powerful faction. The RET, in fact, has been leaderless since the suspension of ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule over corruption charges, and any attempt by the faction to challenge Ramaphosa’s reelection is probably doomed to fail. It is possible, however, that Ramaphosa might have to accommodate the RET by awarding it some leadership positions in order to truly unify the party.
Ramaphosa has built a reputation as a patient strategist who plays the long game. Since assuming office in 2018, he has quietly moved allies into key positions. He has also rebuilt state prosecution capabilities and the party disciplinary mechanism to deal with those accused of corruption. This has helped him remove many of the opponents to his plans to implement a new style of governance. Similarly, he secured the passage of new party bylaws that prevent those accused of corruption from running for party leadership posts.
Yet he has made only incremental progress on the governance and economic overhauls needed to solve problems, such as the lack of access to electricity and water, that have sapped support for the government and the ANC. His efforts on this front have been undermined by a weak cabinet and the need to cater to the interests of the ANC elites he relies on.
That is why the December elective conference is shaping up as such an important test. If Ramaphosa can overcome the latest allegations against him and place allies in the majority of the other five leadership positions up for election in December – deputy president, chairperson, secretary-general, deputy secretary-general, and treasurer-general – that would allow him to focus on his plans to make government more accountable and reinvigorate the economy.
If he fails, he would be forced to continue his delicate balancing act of advancing reforms while maintaining party unity. The country’s problems would fester, public discontent would mount, and the ANC would be at risk of losing its ruling majority in the 2024 elections.
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A man walks past Sinn Fein election posters along the nationalist Falls Road in Belfast.
What We're Watching: Elections in Northern Ireland, South African president in trouble
Northern Ireland’s choice
On Thursday, voters across the UK head to the polls for local elections, but it’s the contest in Northern Ireland that might make history. Sinn Féin is expected to finish with the most seats in Northern Ireland’s assembly. Its victory would be more symbolic than immediately substantive, since power in the assembly must be shared between the two lead parties, and Sinn Féin has focused its campaign on today’s economic hardship, not on a century of Irish partition. But the symbolism matters. A Sinn Féin win would mark the first time in Northern Ireland’s 101-year history that the UK province is led by a party that supports reunification with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. It would make Sinn Féin the most popular party on both sides of the Irish border. And it would prove deeply embarrassing for UK PM Boris Johnson, who is fighting for his scandal-plagued political life at the moment and considering another battle with the European Union over Northern Ireland’s place in the EU’s single market.
Ramaphosa on the ropes
South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa is in a slump these days. Last weekend, angry miners booed him off stage during a May Day rally, the level of anger seemingly taking many by surprise. Ramaphosa's own party is divided over his anti-corruption efforts, and he's being blasted by the opposition for not fixing South Africa's problems, mainly sky-high unemployment and a chronic power crisis. And to top it all off, the country is suffering its fifth COVID wave. The clock is ticking for Ramaphosa, who hopes to be re-elected in December as head of the ruling African National Congress, which has dominated politics in South Africa in the post-apartheid era. Ramaphosa will likely face a tough challenger from the ANC's activist wing, which is aligned with his predecessor Jacob Zuma, forced to resign in 2018. Zuma's staying power within the ANC cannot be overstated: last July, his 15-month prison sentence for corruption sparked the worst nationwide riots since minority white rule ended in 1994. If Ramaphosa loses the battle for ANC leadership, he'll probably have to step down as president — as Thabo Mbeki did in 2008 to make way for Zuma. Can Ramaphosa get back his mojo in time to keep his job?Hard Numbers: Big Biz funds Net Zero, ANC on the ropes in South Africa, Brazil COVID deaths drop, Asia’s mega-trade deal
130 trillion: A group of the world's top banks, insurance companies, and asset managers will raise an astounding $130 trillion worth of private capital to help the world achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The initiative, launched at COP26 by former Bank of England boss Mark Carney and known by its somewhat odd acronym Gfanz, bans its members from funding any fossil fuel projects.
50: With three-quarters of votes counted, South Africa's ruling ANC party looks set to win less than 50 percent in Monday's local elections for the first time since the end of apartheid. The final result has been delayed due to power outages that the government promised to fix before the vote.
2,188: Brazil's weekly COVID death toll has fallen to 2,188, the lowest figure since the start of the pandemic. Latin America's largest nation has now fully vaccinated more than half the population, and a higher percentage of Brazilians have gotten a first shot than Americans.
53: Australia and New Zealand have ratified the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which will become the world's largest trade agreement — covering 53 percent of global exports — when it goes into effect next year. The RCEP also includes China, Japan, South Korea, and the 10 ASEAN member countries.
US-China Trade Talks Turn Ugly: World in 60 Seconds
Is global cooperation on climate change possible?
Sure, it's possible and as it gets worse, increasingly populations around the world, especially young people, are making it a priority. We've seen it in Finland, we see it in Australia. We see it even among left and right among young people the United States. That makes me feel, over time, we're going to see more cooperation.
How will the ANC - The African National Congress - fare in South Africa's elections?
They will win. But they're going to get a lot lower than they have in recent elections. They'll be lucky to get 60%. That makes it harder for Ramaphosa to actually engage in the anti-corruption that they desperately need. They need to go through what Brazil went through to make that country really work and the growth is going be slow.
Can Trump clinch a trade deal with China by Friday?
Well no, but I'd be really surprised if the Chinese do not back away from the backtracking they were already doing the last couple weeks. They were feeling more confident. They thought they had a deal with Trump that was basically in the bag. They backed off. Trump hit him hard with a couple of tweets. They do not want to see these big tariffs coming in. I'd be real surprised if we don't still move towards a deal. The markets will be happier and Trump will have something to announce. It will be positive.