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A worker removes a campaign banner of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa after an African National Congress event ahead of the upcoming elections in Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024.
South Africa’s landmark election: Will the ANC be out?
Over 50 parties are vying for the votes of the country’s 28 million citizens, but two of them could take South Africa in radically different directions. The first is the country’s main opposition party, the pro-business, mostly white-led, centrist Democratic Alliance. Leader John Steenhuisen has already gathered smaller opposition parties, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, to form the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa, pledging to combine their votes to challenge the ANC to form a government.
The second is the Marxist, Black-led Economic Freedom Fighters party, whose leader, former ANC politician Julius Malema,is calling for the nationalization of the country’s gold and platinum mines and the seizure of land from white farmers. Malema could be a kingmaker should the ANC need third-party support, a scenario Steenhuisen describes as“doomsday” for South Africa.
And while formerPresident Jacob Zuma cannot run in this year’s election due to convictions for corruption, observers see him as another potential kingmaker, wielding power behind the scenes through hisuMkhonto weSizwe Party.
Whatever the result, a coalition government would be inherently unstable. In the view of Eurasia analystZiyanda Stuurman, “I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.”
Members of the armed wing of Nelson Mandela's African National Congress line up waiting to vote in a military base north of Pretoria, on April 26, 1994.
South Africa still struggles with inequality 30 years after apartheid
Thirty years ago this weekend, South Africa ushered in its first democratic government.
On April 27, 1994, Black South Africans went to the polls, marking an end to years of white minority rule and the institutionalized racial segregation known as apartheid.
Freedom Day, as that day is commemorated, gave rise to South Africa’s first Black president, Nelson Mandela. The internal protests and violence over apartheid, as well as international sanctions, were relegated to the annals of history, ushering in a new era of promise for racial equality and prosperity.
But three decades later, the “rainbow nation” still faces many challenges, with racial equality and economic development remaining out of reach.
The country struggles with some of the highest inequality levels of any nation worldwide, says Ziyanda Stuurman, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group. “Many young people, in particular, are unemployed and feel despondent about finding work,” she says.
Three main factors have led to persistent inequality. First, South Africa’s unemployment rate is a whopping 32% – the highest globally. Those with secure jobs tend to be non-unionized and, as a result, see lower earnings. And, finally, workers who do well tend to make very high salaries compared to the lower-wage earners, bolstering the poverty gap.
“Due to a lack of economic opportunities and financial inclusion for the majority of Black South Africans,” says Stuurman, “many have not been able to make the most of the expanded political freedoms and opportunities in democratic-era South Africa.”
Since 1994, Mandela’s African National Congress party has been at the helm, but the lack of economic growth and rising inequality may be driving a change of heart among the electorate.
Next month, on May 29, South Africa heads to the polls again for its seventh general election since the end of apartheid. For the first time, polls suggest that the ANC may fail to win 50% of the national vote – which could mean tricky coalition talks or even its exit from power.
Stay tuned to GZERO. We’ll talk more with Stuurman in the coming weeks to gain insights about South Africa’s big election.