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South African president Cyril Ramaphosa casts his vote during the South African elections in Soweto, South Africa May 29, 2024
Can the ANC make new friends and keep the old (president)?
For the first time in 30 years, South Africa’s African National Congress failed to win a majority in this month’s election, forcing it to turn to opposition parties in hopes of forming a coalition.
The most likely option now seems to be a multiparty coalition, similar to Nelson Mandela’s post-apartheid transitional government. This would allow the ANC to maintain its power by partnering with smaller, less established parties and, notably, the Economic Freedom Fighters, which underperformed in the election. According to Eurasia Group analyst Ziyanda Stuurman, this government is most favorable to the ANC as it would “keep Cyril Ramaphosa as president and provide at least some stability across the political landscape.”
A coalition with former president Jacob Zuma’s newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe party appears highly unlikely because its leader refuses to cooperate unless Ramaphosa steps down, which is non-negotiable for the ANC. Early predictions saw a likely coalition forming between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance, the leading opposition party thatwon almost 22% of the vote. But the two diverge on economic policies and affirmative action, and racial tensions between them are high.
South Africa is in uncharted waters, as the ANC is forced to make new friends for the first time. The uncertainty is making hard times in Africa’s biggest economy even worse, with the randweakening by another 1.3% on Wednesday. The ruling party is running out of time to form a coalition, as the Parliament must sit by June 16 to pick the next leader of this young democracy.
Johannesburg, South Africa - People are pictured voting at a polling station in Soweto in Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 29, 2024.
South Africa’s ruling party faces coalition conundrum
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, scored its worst election result in 30 years last week, forcing the party into tricky coalition talks. The ANC took just 40% of the vote, down from 58% in 2019 and below the party’s worst-case projections, as support waned due to high corruption, unemployment, and crime. Nelson Mandela’s former party now faces a choice between potential partners for building a coalition, all with a heavy price.
Leading contenders are the Democratic Alliance with 22% of the vote and the uMkhonto weSizwe party, aka MK, with 15%. However, ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe indicatedan alliance with the DA is difficult due to policy differences, particularly on affirmative and universal healthcare. The DA wants toend the ANC’s racial quota system for employers and opposes the recently-passed universal healthcare act but says it is willing to work with the ANC.
The MK is also prepared to work with the ANC, but not if it’s led by Ramaphosa – a difficult starting position for talks. In addition, both the MK and a third possible partner, the Economic Freedom Fighters, campaigned on putting all land under state control and nationalizing mines and banks, issues that make foreign investors and many South Africans nervous.
The EFF is not a viable coalition party by itself since it obtained only 9% of the vote, which would fall just short of a majority for a coalition with the ANC. It is also considered “too erratic in its orientation, too in your face, and too unreasonable in its policy demands,”according to political analyst Susan Booysen.
Eurasia Group analyst Ziyanda Stuurman says she’s now watching provincial-level leaders, whose support or opposition to a coalition with the DA will prove determinative.
“Ramaphosa and his camp will need support from them for an ANC-DA governance model, or he could face a fast-moving rejection of his plans to form and lead a new government, and his allies may be swept out of power in a revolt against their leadership of the party,” she explained.
The new parliamentmust be sworn in within two weeks, and the president will then be chosen. Sources say that Ramaphosa is unlikely to resign despite the historically poor results, but we’ll be watching to see what deal he cuts to try and survive.Supporters of political party Rise Mzansi attend a protest march calling for the delivery of basic services in the Western Cape ahead of the general election in Cape Town, South Africa May 22, 2024.
Viewpoint: As South Africa's democracy turns 30, Mandela's ANC faces toughest election yet
South African voters will decide on May 29 whether to give another five-year mandate to the African National Congress, the political party that helped bring about the country’s transition to multi-racial democracy in 1994 and has ruled ever since.
Amid intense scrutiny of the ANC’s 30-year record – especially its failure to address economic problems and an electricity supply crisis – the polls show the party at risk of losing its parliamentary majority. Contributing to its woes is the reemergence of Jacob Zuma, a controversial former president and party leader, who is supporting a new political formation threatening to steal votes from the ANC.
We sat down with Eurasia Group’s Ziyanda Stuurman to learn more about the upcoming vote.
How has the 30th anniversary of the transition to democracy played in the election campaign?
A number of opposition parties have harped on the idea that the ANC hasn’t delivered what it promised at the advent of democracy and that South Africa needs new leaders. They say that if the country is going to change course on unemployment, inequality, and poverty, there is no better time to do it than this year. The ANC, on the other hand, is positioning itself as the defender of democracy and calling on voters to support the people who fought against apartheid and preserve the legacy of Nelson Mandela, the country’s first democratically elected president.
Does the ANC have concrete achievements it can point to from its 30 years in power?
Yes, the party has been touting progress on a range of development indicators. These include increasing the proportion of households with access to electricity from 57% to 89% between 1996 and 2021, increasing the share of households with access to piped water from 44% to 60% between 1996 and 2022, and building 3.4 million low-cost houses between 1996 and 2022.
What do voters think? Why has support for the ANC declined?
One long-running concern is unemployment. The unemployment rate is over 30%, with youth unemployment closer to 60%. The country has struggled to generate jobs for decades, but the problem intensified when Zuma was president from 2009 to 2018, investment slumped, and the economy stagnated.
A more pressing concern at the moment is the crisis of electricity supply caused by corruption and mismanagement at power utility Eskom. The situation has improved somewhat this year, but in 2023 the country suffered frequent blackouts. When the government literally can’t keep the lights on, that’s the type of thing that really sours voter sentiment. Finally, many people have been disappointed with President Cyril Ramaphosa, who assumed office after Zuma resigned following years of allegations of sweeping corruption in his government.
Why this disappointment?
I think there were a lot of unrealistic expectations that Ramaphosa, a successful businessman, would quickly turn the country around. He’s just one man and the ANC is a very big organization. Moreover, he has had to deal with the fallout from crises such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. He has made progress rebuilding institutions that suffered during Zuma’s tenure such as the tax authority and the judiciary. But I think that many people see these issues as far removed from their lives and things like the price of bread and fuel and so on.
Ramaphosa himself has been tainted by allegations of wrongdoing, right? What is the status of the investigation into the alleged fraudulent activities at his Phala Phala farm?
It’s turned out to be mostly a damp squib. Right now there are four suspects on trial for breaking and entering at the farm, but very little has been tied to the president (he was alleged to have covered up the theft of a large sum of money to avoid scrutiny). When the story broke in 2022, his approval ratings suffered, but they have since recovered. I highly doubt that the average person is thinking of Phala Phala as an issue. Ramaphosa is a wealthy man, so people just think, “ok, a rich man got robbed. So what?”
Meanwhile, Zuma has made a comeback. What has been the impact of his new party? And given his legal troubles, can he serve in parliament?
The Constitutional Court has just put the final nail in the coffin for Zuma’s ambitions to get reelected to parliament and becoming president again. It ruled that his contempt of court conviction for refusing to testify in a public inquiry on corruption made him ineligible to stand for parliament. Moreover, the impact of his new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, and its ability to steal votes from the ANC has been greatly exaggerated by the media. Some polls have given it a 14% share of the national vote, which would make it the third-largest party in the country. But there are substantial problems with South African polling, and I don’t think it will obtain anywhere near that share of the vote.
If the ANC does lose its parliamentary majority, what would that mean for the country?
I think the ANC is likely to retain its majority, and if falls short, it’s not likely to be by much. That means the ANC could form a coalition government with one or more small, ideologically aligned parties, which would not have much impact on government policies. In fact, Ramaphosa could probably move faster on some of his priorities in a second term. In a less likely scenario of a much worse showing for the ANC, say a vote share of about 40%, then it would be forced to partner with one of the bigger opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance or the Economic Freedom Fighters. This would force bigger policy changes (the DA is more fiscally conservative, while the EFF is more left-wing) and result in an unstable coalition. I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.
Edited by Eurasia Group Senior Editor Jonathan House.
U.S. President Joe Biden arrives for the G20 leaders summit in Rome, Italy October 30, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Biden in Europe, Gulf states vs Lebanon, elections in Nicaragua, South Africa & Virginia
Biden's Euro trip. President Joe Biden is on a crucial Euro trip. It began in Rome at the G-20 Summit, where his idea for a global minimum tax rate was broadly endorsed by the group. Biden also visited Pope Francis at the Vatican — a get-together that produced decidedly less scary photos than when his predecessor held a papal visit — and met with France's President Emmanuel Macron to try to smooth over strained relations after the AUKUS debacle, which he now says had been "clumsy." The US president had another face-to-face with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, just a week after Ankara threatened to expel the US ambassador. But there's a domestic component at play too: Biden was hoping to have passed two infrastructure bills, which include money for climate change, before he attended the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, which kicked off on Sunday. Failure to close the deal on Capitol Hill would deal Biden's credibility a heavy blow just at the moment he wants to reinforce the US commitment to climate change reduction goals at this week's summit and to claim, yet again, that America is indeed back! But Democrats continue to wrangle over both what's in the bills and how to pay for them. Meanwhile, only a third of Americans now say that the US is headed in the right direction. Biden was hoping to have the wind at his back as he sailed into Europe. Instead, he is facing a strong political headwind.
Gulf states lash out at Lebanon. Cash-strapped Lebanon is grappling with yet another crisis after Saudi Arabia expelled its ambassador, a move promptly followed by the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait in solidarity with Riyadh. The trigger? A Lebanese minister had previously criticized the Saudis' involvement in the ongoing war in Yemen, suggesting that the coalition led by Riyadh was the aggressor in a conflict with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Indeed, this latest episode reveals that Lebanon — which has long been plagued by sectarian tensions — yet again finds itself in the crosshairs of the Iran-Saudi rivalry. (Saudi Arabia has cut off aid to Beirut since the-Iran backed Hezbollah movement has gained increasing influence in Lebanese political and social life.) But since billionaire tycoon Najib Mikati was appointed Lebanon's PM in September, the US and France have been lobbying the Saudis to soften their hardline approach to Lebanon, which the Gulf views as an Iranian client state, and reinstate aid to the crisis-ridden country, where three-quarters of the population now live below the poverty line. The latest episode shows that despite speculation of a détente between Tehran and Riyadh, deep animosity persists.
Nicaragua's fake election. At the tail end of this week Nicaragua will hold a presidential "election." We're putting that in quotation marks because President Daniel Ortega, who has ruled the Central American country with a tight fist since 2011, has eliminated any serious (and even unserious) competition. He controls the electoral authorities, and since June, his goons have arrested at least a dozen prominent opposition figures. But things haven't been smooth sailing for Ortega, who led the left-wing Sandinistas during Nicaragua's bloody civil war in the 1980s and has since reinvented himself as a business-friendly devout Catholic. Back in 2018 a botched social security reform prompted protests that quickly spiraled into a challenge to his authoritarian rule. Although he crushed the uprising with brute force, rumblings of discontent continue. What's more, the US and other partners in the region are already readying a new round of sanctions in response to what will certainly be a sham vote on Sunday.
ANC feels heat as South Africa votes. South Africans go to the polls on Monday to vote in local elections, which are viewed as the biggest test for the ruling ANC party since the end of apartheid. The ANC, which has won every nationwide election since 1994, could lose control of major cities, including Johannesburg, to the opposition Democratic Alliance and coalitions of small independent parties because many South Africans are fed up with government corruption and dysfunction. Indeed, ongoing power outages are being blamed on a state-owned power utility long suspected of graft, and crumbling infrastructure on years of financial mismanagement by successive ANC-led governments. President Cyril Ramaphosa, an ANC stalwart, has admitted (some) party mistakes, and required all ANC candidates to sign a non-enforceable pledge to improve public services. More broadly, it's also the first time the ANC will face voters since the deadly riots that followed former president Jacob Zuma's conviction for contempt of court last July. Zuma is now on parole while he faces trial for corruption, but he remains immensely popular with the ANC's left wing — and a thorn in the side of his successor Ramaphosa.
A nail-biter in Virginia. The campaign for the 2022 US midterm elections officially kicks off Tuesday, when Virginia votes to elect a new governor in a race widely seen as a temperature check on Joe Biden's popularity after 10 months. Democrats hope that former Gov. Terry McAuliffe wins back his old job so that the purple state does not slide into Republican hands ahead of presidential elections in 2024. But GOP challenger Glenn Youngkin, a millionaire businessman supported by Donald Trump, has caught up in the polls once led comfortably by McAuliffe in a campaign marked by education culture wars. Now both are in a dead heat, and the result will likely be very close. A Youngkin victory would be a big boost for Republicans, who'll gain momentum going into the midterms next year, where the Dems face long odds of keeping control of both houses of Congress. What's more, it would add pressure on Biden to mediate between the moderate and progressive wings of his party to pass a social spending bill, the hallmark of his policy agenda. With his own approval rate plummeting, the president needs a big win that Democrats can sell to voters a year from now.
A supporter of the African National Congress (ANC) looks on ahead of the launch of an election manifesto at the church square in Pretoria, South Africa, September 27, 2021.
What We're Watching: South Africa's local elections
ANC feels heat as South Africa votes. South Africans go to the polls on Monday to vote in local elections, which are viewed as the biggest test for the ruling ANC party since the end of apartheid. The ANC, which has won every nationwide election since 1994, could lose control of major cities, including Johannesburg, to the opposition Democratic Alliance and coalitions of small independent parties because many South Africans are fed up with government corruption and dysfunction. Indeed, ongoing power outages are being blamed on a state-owned power utility long suspected of graft, and crumbling infrastructure on years of financial mismanagement by successive ANC-led governments. President Cyril Ramaphosa, an ANC stalwart, has admitted (some) party mistakes, and required all ANC candidates to sign a non-enforceable pledge to improve public services. More broadly, it's also the first time the ANC will face voters since the deadly riots that followed former president Jacob Zuma's conviction for contempt of court last July. Zuma is now on parole while he faces trial for corruption, but he remains immensely popular with the ANC's left wing — and a thorn in the side of his successor Ramaphosa.