VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Start your day right!
Get latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Everyone, of course, talking about the incoming Trump administration. What it's going to mean in terms of personnel and in terms of policy. The latter, more important, but informed very significantly by the former. Couple of things I would say.
First of all, on the personnel side, clearly most important point here and very different from the first administration is that loyalty matters immensely. Trump is angriest not at Democrats, angriest at people that used to work for him who have now flipped, who are calling him a fascist. Some of the worst things that have been said about Trump in the first administration came from senior people that he put in that weren't loyal. They may have been long-term establishment Republicans and adults, but now he couldn't be bothered with them in the slightest and wants them to know it.
And that's why nobody really expected, that was talking to the Trump team, that Pompeo or Haley were going to be appointed. But the fact that Trump came out immediately before even making other appointments to a cabinet and saying, "No, you two, thanks, but no thanks. You can go get on with the rest of your lives." Because he sees them as not loyal. Nikki said all sorts of horrible things about Trump, and Pompeo was feeling around with other candidates and didn't endorse until way too late. And Trump was angry about that at the time, and he holds that grudge.
So you're going to see a team that I think is much more consolidated around Trump. And that doesn't mean there won't be different constellations, groups of people that are more aligned with each other, but when Trump has something he wants done, everyone's going to run alongside him.
And I think that's true for JD Vance too. The idea that there's going to be a shadow cabinet that is run by Vance, and he's the Project 2025 guy. No, if that happens, Trump will be angry. If there's any large meeting internally, Trump wants to be the star. And he expects Vance to do his bidding and to be effective at it and to run other things that he doesn't care as much about. And that is, I think, the role that Vance will play.
Is it going to be more populist on some issues? Sure, but not necessarily on as many as you'd think. Why? Because there are going to be a lot of billionaires who are interested in their business interests, their investment interests around the Trump team. There will be CEOs. There'll be a lot of people that aren't globalists in name; they've been thoroughly repudiated, but globalists in more policy than you would think.
Now here, China policy is extremely interesting because on the one hand, Trump really wants to see higher tariffs on China and has talked about that. Robert Lighthizer, who was US trade rep for Trump last time around, very professional, very capable in that role, clearly playing a very significant role in running trade and maybe other things economically for Trump this time around. He is pushing for more jobs in the United States, more investment in the United States, decoupling from China. Very comfortable with a new Cold War between the US and China.
You know who isn't? Elon Musk. Has massive investments on the ground in China, wants a more comfortable relationship there, and has basically told the Chinese that he's very interested in helping to be an interlocutor. Kissinger is dead. And the one person who's out there that could be a conduit of information and potentially better relations between the two most powerful countries in the world is Elon. Will he be effective? A technology policy is kind of interesting because Trump first time around didn't do technology policy. Remember the CHIPS Act? That was Biden. Semiconductors, export controls, that was Biden. Wasn't something Trump was focused on. He was focused on trade, on the trade deficit, on tariffs, on those issues, intellectual property theft, those issues. Not as focused on technology. Elon will be, and he's going to want people he wants to be appointed in relevant positions in the Trump administration. So if that happens, maybe it's true that US-China relations become more functional than they otherwise might've been. But this is an untested proposition, something very interesting to watch.
A couple other places that are really important, Russia-Ukraine. Did Trump, did Trump not have a conversation already with Putin? Kremlin's saying no, that means absolutely nothing. But clearly he is very interested in pushing Zelensky, who is on the back foot militarily right now, to end this war. And the likelihood of a near-term ceasefire has gone way up because of Trump. Orbán of course, already been saying that from Hungary. Robert Fico from Slovakia wasn't saying that before Trump was elected. Now he is. Are we going to see that from Giorgia Meloni in Italy, for example, who's ideologically disposed to Trump, but has been much more anti-Russia in her policies? Watch that very, very carefully. Other countries that aren't on the front lines.
So it's going to be a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians, an opportunity for Putin, if he wants it, though he's doing well militarily, so he's going to probably drive a harder bargain on even a short-term ceasefire than he might have three months ago, six months ago. And he knows Trump wants to get this done. And then we need to see what the Europeans do. Do they hang together under a relatively strong and aligned European Union leadership, or do we start to see a real split among a whole bunch of European individual government leaders that are a lot weaker? Super interesting.
And then of course, you have the Middle East. And on the Middle East policies are even stronger than Biden's pro-Israel policies. And you've seen a lot of support for going after Iran. Might the Israelis now do that? Oil prices are low. China's not demanding much energy. Hitting the Iranians nuclear and energy capabilities wouldn't bring oil as high as they would've been 6 months ago, 12 months ago. Depends on what the Iranians do in response, how disruptive they want to be. But right now they're reaching out to everyone. The Europeans, the Iranians are reaching out to the Saudis. They just did some low level military exercises with the Saudis. This is a country that is basically saying, "We don't want a big fight. We know that we're going to lose if we have one." Easy time for Trump to press in the Middle East. Last time he was president, first place he went was Saudi Arabia, then Israel. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he does that again. Though he probably flips it this time around in terms of the order.
Okay, so much to talk about, so much to watch. I hope you find this interesting. We'll be on top of it and we'll talk to you all real soon.
Keep reading...Show less
More from Quick Take
Zelensky, Trump, and NATO: A united front on Ukraine?
August 18, 2025
Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine
August 11, 2025
US government rescinds West Point role for former cyber director
August 04, 2025
US-EU trade deal marks a win for Trump
July 28, 2025
The US, China, and the critical minerals question
July 21, 2025
Epstein conspiracies divide Trump's MAGA base
July 14, 2025
US-Brazil relations in crisis
July 10, 2025
Elon Musk vows to start a new political party
July 07, 2025
What Zohran Mamdani’s win really signals for US politics
June 30, 2025
Iran's retaliation shows strategic weakness
June 23, 2025
US enters war with Iran: What comes next?
June 22, 2025
Iran looks to negotiate ceasefire
June 16, 2025
Elon vs. Trump: Billionaire fallout goes public
June 06, 2025
Elon Musk steps down from Trump administration
May 29, 2025
Trump's weekend of geopolitical success
May 12, 2025
Can Trump and Carney reset US-Canada relations?
May 07, 2025
Trump’s ‘less is more’ message is un-American
May 05, 2025
Ian Bremmer on Trump's first 100 days
April 28, 2025
Trump’s America: A kleptocracy but not a police state
April 23, 2025
Inside the Harvard-Trump showdown
April 21, 2025
Can the US win by undoing globalization?
April 14, 2025
Who benefits from Trump's tariff wall?
April 07, 2025
Trump's tariffs & the end of globalization
April 03, 2025
Leaked Signal chat shows Trump team's mindset
March 26, 2025
What Trump team's war plans leak revealed
March 25, 2025
Is Europe in trouble as the US pulls away?
March 24, 2025
Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides
March 18, 2025
What will Trump offer Putin in Ukraine ceasefire talks?
March 17, 2025
Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response
March 11, 2025
Can Europe broker a Ukraine ceasefire?
March 03, 2025
What Trump-Zelensky fallout means for Ukraine war
March 01, 2025
Why the US-Ukraine minerals deal changed
February 26, 2025
Germany's close election limits its ability to lead Europe
February 24, 2025
Ukraine hopes for Europe's help as US negotiates with Russia
February 18, 2025
JD Vance stuns Munich conference with critique on European democracy
February 14, 2025
Trump-Putin chat over Ukraine "deeply" worries Europe
February 13, 2025
What is Trump's Gaza playbook?
February 10, 2025
Why cutting USAID will hurt American foreign policy
February 05, 2025
Why is Trump starting a trade war with Canada?
February 02, 2025
How Trump's assertive foreign policy impacts international relations
January 27, 2025
Trump's Davos address sets up big shifts in US strategy
January 24, 2025
From Davos: How global leaders are grappling with Trump’s return
January 20, 2025
Ian Bremmer on the forces behind the geopolitical recession
January 17, 2025
What Greenlanders might want from a deal with Trump
January 13, 2025
New Year's Day terror attacks highlight America's divisions
January 03, 2025
GZERO Series
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.





























































