In Iran, a shooting war has given way to a fragile ceasefire and a high-stakes standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, with the global economy hanging in the balance.

Iran now holds effective control over a critical oil chokepoint, says Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew, while the US enforces its own blockade to try to squeeze Iran. The result: dueling blockades, rising prices, and a simple question—which side will blink first? And how much economic damage will be done in the meantime?