A ceasefire is holding, barely, but the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz isn't forcing real concessions from Tehran. Iran is betting Trump has no appetite for renewed war, and they may be right. Gas prices are climbing toward $5 a gallon and a global recession looms.

Meanwhile Russia is cashing in. Higher oil prices are refilling Kremlin coffers just as pressure over Ukraine was mounting. Patriot systems meant for Kyiv are now guarding Gulf infrastructure.

And China is playing it smart. With Trump heading to Beijing needing Xi Jinping's help to stabilize the Strait, Beijing has leverage on trade, minerals, and fentanyl, and it knows it. Ian Bremmer explains why the president who promised quick victories looks increasingly trapped.