During this fragilest of ceasefires, one thing has become clear: both Iran and the United States want a way out of this war. (Israel? That's complicated....) Iran cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith, but neither can the United States.

The last two rounds of peace talks in just the past year ended in US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Negotiations, in short, seem impossible. And yet, they're inevitable. Because President Trump is learning the hard way that there is no military end to this war, only a political one. Eurasia Group's Head of Research, Jon Lieber, breaks it down.