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U.S. President Donald Trump talks with Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha, Qatar, May 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump signs security guarantee with Qatar, Papua New Guinea and Australia make defense deal, and Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla
Trump signs security guarantee with Qatar
Yesterday, it was made public that Donald Trump signed a NATO-style security pledge with Qatar on Monday, the same day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House. The order upgrades the US’s security obligation to Qatar in the event of a future attack, and is a “compensation” for Israel’s strike last month on Hamas leaders in Doha. While the executive order’s legal weight is questionable, the move is as much about countering Saudi Arabia’s new defense pact with Pakistan as it is about the Israeli strike, underscoring pressure on the US to prove it remains a reliable security guarantor for its Gulf state allies.
Papua New Guinea and Australia to seal defense pact
The cabinet of Papua New Guinea has approved a defense pact with Australia. The move, expected to be approved by both countries’ lawmakers, comes as China broadens its push for influence in the South Pacific. The Solomon Islands, located just east of Papua New Guinea, have been a major focus of Chinese investment and security activity in recent years. (For more see our recent explainer here.) Under the PNG-Australia agreement, the two countries are obligated to come to each other’s defense, but can also maintain alliances with third-parties.
Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla
Israeli forces have intercepted 39 boats that were sailing towards the Gaza Strip as part of a flotilla carrying humanitarian aid. Celebrity activist Greta Thunberg was among those arrested, along with several European politicians. Israeli officials indicated one of the boats may still be on its way to Gaza, and would also be stopped if it approaches the war zone.
Violent riots have been taking place in Noumea since yesterday evening. Numerous shops and a number of houses have been set alight, looted or destroyed by young independantists, who reject the reform of the electoral freeze. In photo: view of Noumea, where many buildings are under fire. New Caledonia, Noumea, May 14, 2024.
Pas de TikTok! France cracks down on New Caledonia unrest
France declared a 12-day state of emergency and banned TikTok in its South Pacific territory of New Caledonia on Thursday after at least four people were killed and hundreds more injured in riots that broke out Monday. Members of the indigenous Kanak people are reacting to a new law passed over 10,000 miles away in Paris that would give some French citizens from the metropole local voting rights and potentially dilute Kanak sovereignty.
Residents in the capital, Nouméa, report being confined to their homes for over two days, sheltering from the gunfire outside. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal promised to send an additional 1,000 security officers to reinforce local authorities and justified removing access to TikTok because it was raising tensions.
At the heart of the violence is France’s strained relations with Kanak activists, who have pressed for independence since the 1980s. France has held independence referenda three times, each of which failed (though the most recent, 2021, was boycotted by pro-independence leaders). If the non-Kanak franchise is expanded, supporters of independence fear the window for self-determination could close entirely.
Paris expects to regain control of the situation shortly, but we’re watching for signs it might soft-pedal voting reforms to cool temperatures. It’s all an unwelcome distraction for French President Emmanuel Macron, who had hoped to turn political discourse toward his economic achievements ahead of EU elections, according to Eurasia Group analyst Mujtaba Rahman.
