We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Totality fails to eclipse politics
The moon blotted out the sun across much of North America on Monday, but it did not put politics entirely out of mind.
Conservatives on both sides of the border used the occasion to compare their champion to the moon, blotting out the incumbent sun, while incumbents merely marveled at the moment.
In the United States, Donald Trump released an odd ad on his Truth Social network in which his face blotted out the sun. In Canada, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre just posted a photo of the moment, but one of his MPs posted an image showing a smiling Poilievre eclipsing Trudeau.
Meanwhile, Fox News issued a warning that the eclipse might make it easier for migrants to cross into the United States.
Justin Trudeau posted a video of himself taking in the sight from the roof of his office while Joe Biden posted a safety warning, a subtle reminder, perhaps, of the time, in 2017, when Trump gazed directly into an eclipse, which is said to be unwise.A club for hemming China in
On Monday — the day that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters that Canada is interested in joining the AUKUS defense alliance — documents were released at a public inquiry that showed that Canada’s intelligence agency believes China “clandestinely and deceptively interfered in both the 2019 and 2021 general elections.”
Also on Monday, as Chinese ships carried out exercises in disputed waters in the South China Sea, the US, UK, and Australia announced that they were talking to Japan about inviting that country to participate in Pillar II of the security pact.
China’s growing military and political belligerence is rattling other countries, and they are responding by drawing together in a way that would have been out of the question a decade ago.
Neighbors under pressure
Pillar I of AUKUS, which was announced in 2021, is a collaboration between Australia, the Americans, and the Brits aimed at adding a powerful new capacity to Australia’s military: nuclear-powered (though conventionally armed) submarines. This is a huge spend for Australia — $368 billion over 30 years — that carries an inherent political risk. And to make the deal, Canberra had to blow up relations with France by abandoning a deal to buy French subs. The Aussies only did that after a year of tense political and economic confrontations with China that left decision-makers in that country gravely concerned about its future in a neighborhood dominated by Beijing. Australia’s back was against the wall.
Like Australia, Japan is being driven to closer cooperation with the United States by its concerns about an increasingly powerful and assertive China. Japan’s trade-focused economy depends on international shipping passing freely through the South China Sea, for instance, where China has been clashing with the Philippines.
So Tokyo has reason to be interested in Pillar II of the AUKUS arrangement, which focuses on defense technology sharing, including quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, and electronic warfare — all areas where China presents a technological challenge, and where Japan could offer expertise.
With China rapidly expanding its military, Japan has decided to break with its post-war pacifist tradition and dramatically increase defense spending.
Northern lightweights
Canada is also opening its checkbook, but at a much smaller scale, which would explain why the AUKUS partners are making a point of talking about doing business with Japan, rather than Canada.
Nobody is talking about adding other countries as full members, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Tuesday, but proceeding on a project-by-project basis.
Historically, Canada spends little on defense, falling well short of the 2% of GDP that NATO members have all agreed to spend. In an increasingly dangerous world, though, pressure is mounting for Canada to step up, and on Monday, Trudueau’s government did roll out a five-year plan to bring defense spending up to 1.76% of GDP by 2030, up from 1.38% last year.
Allies welcomed the announcement, but there was nothing significant enough to make Canada a much more desirable partner for AUKUS, says Eugene Lang, a former Liberal defense official turned Queens University professor. Officials are interested.
“I just don’t know that we're doing anything to get their attention,” he says. “What they're doing in AUKUS is investing in developing brand-new technologies. To my knowledge, Canada has not got any specific money set aside for any of that.”
University of Ottawa Professor Thomas Juneau, who has interviewed allied officials about Canada’s potential role in AUKUS, found that Canada is increasingly seen as a free rider in defense and intelligence circles. It’s not surprising that Japan was invited before Canada, he says.
“It's really normal for AUKUS to bring in Japan before Canada because Japan is not only a much bigger country than we are, but it's right next to China.”
Wolf warriors
On the other hand, because of its Five Eyes intelligence-sharing experience, Canada could more easily cooperate with AUKUS than Japan, says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group.
And while it may not be spending enough money to be taken seriously, the Trudeau government has moved to be more circumspect in its relationship with China, limiting Chinese investment in critical minerals and being cautious about research projects.
“The scales have fallen from a lot of politicians’ eyes in the West,” Thompson says. “The question remains, how do you have constructive diplomatic and economic relations with Beijing, while at the same time competing with them geopolitically and seeking to build up and maintain deterrence?”
China will object to the new alliances being organized around it, but don’t expect Beijing to stop buying sabers and rattling them.
“China has a rising economy, so the idea that its rising economic power wouldn't come with rising geopolitical ambition is a fantasy, and we've kind of believed in that fantasy for a while, not just in Canada but in other Western countries,” says Juneau.
“But it was a fantasy all along.”
Graphic Truth: US trade deficit with Canada & Mexico
The US trade deficit in goods with Canada and Mexico reached an all-time high in 2023 of over $220 billion — and despite what you may hear from certain former US presidents, that’s a good thing. Yes, more money than ever is leaving the US and going to the neighbors. And in exchange, American consumers get more stuff from their neighbors than ever before and for better prices than they can find at home.
Speaker of the House of Commons Anthony Rota looks on during Question Period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
Dead cats, Nazis, and murder
Has politics ever been this interesting? In trying to understand wild stories about a Nazi in Canada’s Parliament and allegations that India assassinated a man on the steps of a temple in Surrey, British Columbia, I started to think about dead cats, wagging the dog, and flooding the zone with sh-t.
Dead Cats? Let me explain.
There are various ways to describe strategies that governments use when they want to distract public attention from one crisis. Often, they simply introduce another.
The Dead Cat Strategy was made famous by an Aussie political operator named Lynton Crosby, who used it to help Boris Johnson shift attention away from his shambolic UK leadership stumbles. Johnson actually wrote about it once, saying that when losing an argument the best thing to do is to deploy Crosby’s strategy and throw “a dead cat on the table.”
“Everyone will shout ‘Jeez, mate, there’s a dead cat on the table’,” he said, “and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief.” Johnson’s entire political career was, essentially, a buffet of dead cats.
Where there is a political cat, there must be a dog. “Wag the Dog” was the name of a 1997 Hollywood film about a fictional government that used military action to distract from a president’s troubles. Life imitates art. The next year, after the revelations about the Monica Lewinsky scandal blew up, President Bill Clinton ordered the bombing of a Sudanese pharmacy factory. His secretary of defense was immediately asked if the attacks were just “wag the dog” distractions from the sex scandal. Either way, it didn’t work. Do you remember the bombs or the blue dress?
And, of course, during his time as Trump whisperer, Steve Bannon infamously told writer Michael Lewis that the way to undermine the media was simply to “flood the zone with shit.” And flood the zone he did. That phrase, in my view, marked the unofficial declaration of the Disinformation War that is still raging today.
What does this have to do with the political difficulties Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing with India in the wake of the June 18 murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, or why the Speaker of the House invited a man who was an actual Nazi to be celebrated in Parliament during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky? (You would have to work very hard and forget some key moments in history to do something as insulting, damaging, and embarrassing as inviting a guy who was in an SS unit to Parliament to celebrate fighting … the Russians, but that is what the Speaker actually did. He apparently missed the part in World War II where the Russians were allies in the fight against the Nazis. And they say kids don’t know their history … sigh). It was not a planned channel change a la “Wag the Dog,” but the Nazi story has become a major distraction from the ongoing fallout of the Indian assassination scandal and the war in Ukraine, and that’s a huge problem.
As I outlined in my column last week, Trudeau says there are “credible allegations” that the Niijar murder was orchestrated by “agents of the” Indian government. While India denies involvement in the death of a man they regarded as a terrorist, the evidence is now overwhelming. There are recordings of Indian diplomats talking about it beforehand, and there is video of the assassination squad conducting the bloody killing — using between 40 and 50 bullets. This was a political statement, not just murder.
In the immediate aftermath, it looked like Canada would stand alone, as most countries need a close relationship with India as a hedge against China. But definitive evidence of an extrajudicial killing has a way of chilling a courtship, so now its India feeling the pressure to provide a way out.
I spoke with senior intelligence sources this week about India and Canada, and they tell me that allies like the US, France, Germany, and Australia have all urged India behind the scenes to cooperate with an investigation, even as PM Narendra Modi has escalated the diplomatic war with Canada.
Sources also tell me the US is heavily pressuring India to cooperate with Canada and find someone accountable for the murder. “There is room for accountability that does not involve Modi himself,” a senior intel source said. In other words, get some people to take the fall, show respect for the rule of law, and don’t sour more G7 relations. That way, we can all get productive on other issues. Over to you, Mr. Modi.
Canada too is feeling the pressure to do more to crack down on Khalistani-related security issues, but sources say that what India wants Canada to do in terms of monitoring and arrests could violate the Canadian rule of law. As a source told me, “India is right to say that there are extremists in Canada, but India can be dismissive about our belief in freedom of speech and the right to freedom of assembly, and we won’t violate that.”
The other thing to watch for? Arrests.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is conducting an independent investigation, and when they make arrests — it could take a while — India will be forced to be made accountable. Intel sources say they are concerned those arrests might lead to more domestic violence, so this is far from over.
In the meantime, as this killing is forcing India to decide what kind of player on the global stage it will be, Canada is consumed by the invitation of a Nazi to Parliament. There is no sugar coating this. It was a humiliating, damaging, and painful moment, and it handed Russia – which has long tried to justify its illegal, murderous invasion of Ukraine as a battle against Nazis – a huge propaganda victory.
It has also allowed the fight for continuing support for Ukraine to get bogged down in old wounds and historic battles that remain agonizing generations later. Besides exposing Canada’s hideous past in terms of allowing Nazis to come to Canada — ”There was a point in our history where it was easier to get (into Canada) as a Nazi than it was as a Jewish person,” said Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller — our eyes are now off the main thing: Russia’s invasion and how to get them out.
No one wagged the dog, tossed a dead cat, or flooded the zone here as a strategy of distraction. This time it was just pure incompetence, but the result is the same: Distortion. Disinformation. Flooding the zone with … crap.
At a time when we need to get serious about urgent issues, the timing couldn’t be worse.
A graphic showing English-French bilingualism in Canada.
The Graphic Truth: English-French bilingualism in Canada
Parlez-vous le français? Probably pas très bien if you live outside Quebec, according to census data from Statistics Canada.
The share of Canadians who can hold a conversation in both English and French has plateaued around 18% for two decades, despite strong legal protections for the French language and official encouragement of bilingualism.
The background: Political rivalries between English and French-speaking Canadians dominated the early history of the country, and fuel some radical independence movements in Quebec even today. Official adoption of bilingualism at a federal level in 1969 was meant to help heal the rift.
And in the first three decades, it met with considerable success. The share of bilingual Canadians rose from 12.2% in 1961 to 17.7% in 2001.
However, most of the growth came in Quebec, which continues to push up the national rate of bilingualism. Nearly half of Quebeckers are bilingual, compared to less than 1 in 10 Canadians from other provinces.
Statistics Canada explains that English-speaking Canada has simply outgrown the share of the country with French as their mother tongue, but also pointed out that Canadians whose mother tongue is neither French nor English —- mostly immigrants — are less likely to learn both of Canada’s official languages.
But there’s one more wrinkle: Quebeckers whose mother tongue is neither English nor French are actually more likely than the general population to speak both languages, with 50.8% able to hold a conversation in French, English and their mother tongue. Incroyable!
Conservative MP Michael Chong speaks during a news conference in Ottawa.
China's threats as Mr Chong goes to Washington
National security threats have a way of uniting politicians from across the aisle and that was on full display this week when the US Congress, investigating Chinese foreign interference, asked a Canadian politician named Michael Chong to testify. Not your average Tuesday on Capitol Hill, but Chong has a compelling story to tell.
In 2021, after he tabled a motion in the Canadian Parliament to declare the Chinese repression of the Uyghur population a genocide, he and his extended family in Hong Kong were actively targeted by agents of the People’s Republic of China. China has denied the allegation, but there is plenty of evidence to support Chong’s claims about Chinese interference. With a US election in just over a year and Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns ratcheting up, US politicians are looking to learn from his experience to develop their own countermeasures.
Chong, now the Conservative Party’s chief foreign affairs critic, was elected in 2004, which is when I first met him as I covered his campaign. Born in Canada, Chong has relatives in Hong Kong, who he now fears will experience ongoing reprisals by Beijing.
I spoke to Chong after he testified in Washington, where US politicians wanted to find out why he thinks the US and Canada need to work more closely to combat Chinese threats to the national security of both countries. During the hearing, they praised his “courage” for standing up to China.
Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Solomon: Thanks for speaking to me Michael. Can you describe what you told US lawmakers when you testified before the Congressional committee that is looking into foreign interference in democracies?
Chong: I delivered two clear messages to US senators and lawmakers. The PRC's interference is also affecting many Canadians coast to coast whose stories remain untold and they suffer in silence. The message I delivered is that we need to deliver a suite of measures, a range of tools, to help governments combat this menace, including closer cooperation among allied democracies.
Can you remind people what happened to you?
Essentially the PRC initially sanctioned me for a decision the government of Canada took to sanction individuals in Xinjiang province, but what happened next crossed the line. Which is that they had a diplomat in the PRC consulate in Toronto named Zhao Wei actively gather information about me and my family back in Hong Kong to further target me using clandestine and coercive measures, that was the first line that was crossed. [Editor's note: Canada eventually expelled the Chinese diplomat.]
The second line crossed was this past May when they actively spread disinformation on Canadian social media platforms about me. Global Affairs Canada concluded that this disinformation emanated from PRC state accounts. So those are just two examples of the kinds of threats that many Canadians are facing every day.
Is China alone in doing this or are other countries also engaging in similar behavior?
That is a good question. China is not alone in doing this but according to our intelligence services, China is by far the number one threat actor based on the intelligence gathered. We believe that over 90% of the foreign interference threat activity in Canada come from the PRC. So, it is by far the main foreign threat operating inside Canada and why the focus has been on countering this threat.
What kind of measures should be deployed to stop this?
A foreign agent registry is one measure that needs to be implemented. The Canadian government has committed to introducing one in the future. Another measure is using sunlight and transparency to publicly tell citizens about intelligence gathering and foreign interference threat activity so citizens can insulate themselves from these kinds of threats.
Another example is exchanging best practices on evidentiary standards and translating intelligence into evidence. Other measures include resources to law enforcement to prosecute individuals from breaking the law and threatening Canadians. So, there are a range of measures but there is no one magic bullet that is going to fix this problem.
China denies all this. They say they did not engage in any interference and certainly not against you. Are these lies?
That is false. Some of these activities have been proven in court and some of this has been submitted as evidence in court. It has risen to evidentiary standards. For example, last October, the US Justice Department revealed in an unsealed indictment that a Canadian in Vancouver had been coerced by PRC agents to go back to the PRC. We have plenty of evidence that PRC has engaged in this activity on a broad level. The high-profile unlawful detentions of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor are just some of the literally hundreds of examples of PRC oppression in Canada and abroad.
Why did the US Congress want to hear from you and what was the takeaway?
They are interested in understanding what kind of PRC repression is taking place in other allied democracies and I think they are interested in what solutions are being used abroad to counter these threats. We talked at length about threats on university campuses. The PRC has been targeting universities across democracies and has used tactics such as coaching Chinese international students into threatening and coercing other students who are advocating for Tibet, human rights in Hong Kong or for the Uyghurs.
We also talked about how to insulate universities from intellectual property theft that is taking place at universities in sensitive areas of research.
How does this impact US/Canada relations with China?
I think that Canada-PRC relations are broad and multi-faceted. We have some CAD$100 billion in two-way trade with China and the US has a commensurate amount of two-way trade [Editor's note: it is closer to $700 billion], so obliviously we are going to have to engage with the PRC, but we should do so by being clear with PRC officials of what is acceptable and what is not, and be clear that we will stand up for our interests and in defense of the security of our citizens when they interfere with our democracy.
Do you now feel you or your family in Hong Kong are under threat from the PRC?
I feel emboldened. The targeting of me has convinced me that what I and other outspoken critics are doing is effective. I don’t think they would be targeting us in this way if it wasn’t effective. I feel emboldened to speak up, to give voice to the voiceless and defend Canadian sovereignty.
What is at stake here is what CSIS, our national security intelligence service has told us, is our very democracy. CSIS has said this is a serious national security threat, they said explicitly it threatens our economy, long term prosperity, social cohesion, our Parliament and elections. That is not a small thing. So, I think it is important to continue to educate Canadians about this threat and to stand up and make it clear to the PRC that we will not be cowed and that we will stand with other allied democracies and defend ourselves.
You were critical of the Canadian government's actions on this file for a long time and thought they were asleep at the switch. Has the Canadian and US posture on this changed? And with both a US election coming up and possibly a Canadian one soon, is this situation now more urgent?
I think the Canadian government has been slowly coming to react to this threat. They recently announced an independent public inquiry, something that we long called for. This past spring, they announced that they would introduce a foreign agents registry at some point, something we had called for over three years.
But people will understand that I am a little skeptical. Because at each and every step along the way they have only done something in reaction to the public outcry and pressure that we have brought to bear, so I will wait to see if they continue to step up to meet this threat.
I think the next election is particularly important. In the last election there was evidence that CCP accounts were spreading disinformation about a [Conservative candidate] colleague of mine who was running for reelection. So, what happens in the next election -- what measures the government puts in place to inform Canadians about intelligence that is pointing to PRC disinformation operations -- is something I will be looking for.
Interview conducted by Evan Solomon.
Britain's King Charles III waves.
Hard Numbers: Ditch the monarchy, eh?, we’re #2! , here comes Hurricane Lee, Ontario housing boom falls short
63: Barely one year into the reign of King Charles III – who is technically the king of Canada – 63% of Canadians say it’s time to rethink ties with the British crown. That’s up seven percentage points from March. And just over half of Canadians agreed with the statement that “we have to get rid of” the monarchy altogether.
2: The US News and World Report ranked Canada the No. 2 country in the world after Switzerland according to an array of lifestyle metrics. It may be hard for Canadians to miss out on the top spot — but the US isn’t even on the podium, coming in at fifth place.
90: Hurricane Lee is churning up the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour, and is expected to strike Canada’s Atlantic provinces and New England over the weekend. Warm waters worsened by climate change and an El Niño event are driving a particularly harsh hurricane season, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now predicting up to 21 storms this year.
44,000: Ontario reported the highest number of new housing construction projects in 30 years, with 44,000 new builds underway in the first half of 2023. Unfortunately, that pace is well shy of the annual target of 150,000 housing starts that the province has set in order to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031.
The Graphic Truth: Arctic meltdown
Ever since satellite observations started in the late 1970s, sea ice extent levels have been falling. That is the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice at any given time, which is important for the regulation of ocean and air temperatures, as well as safeguarding animal habitats.
But as the climate crisis deepens and sea temperatures rise, ice extent levels have reached historic lows. Meanwhile, as more ice melts, not only does it endanger wildlife, but it also fuels rising sea levels and releases methane into the environment that contributes to some of the worst climate catastrophes seen in recent years.
We take a look at sea ice extent levels from 1980-2023.