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Trump, Trudeau, and the art of the deal
Donald Trump, whatever else you might say about him, has a sense of humor.
“It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada,” he posted at midnight on Monday. “I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!”
Trudeau, on the other hand, is a straight man.
“I think there’s a number of folks in different countries, and I won’t point out any particular one, where folks are going to be wondering about the choice they maybe made in elections,” he said earnestly in Halifax on Monday. “Let’s not be that kind of country in Canada … Let’s not fall into an easy trap of voting for change for the worse.”
Trudeau followed that with a lament Tuesday about Kamala Harris’ defeat, which led to a nasty attack by Trump supporter Elon Musk, who predicted Trudeau — whom he called a “tool” — would soon be gone.
The Trump team has decided to make Trudeau a target for pro-wrestling-style trash talk, and Trudeau is ill-equipped to respond in kind because Canadians are rattled by Trump’s threats and have little confidence in their unpopular prime minister. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, not Trudeau, threatened to cut off energy exports to the US after Trudeau met with Canadian provincial leaders on Wednesday.
Trump has all the cards
Trudeau said it would be “a little more challenging” to deal with Trump this time than last, when they together negotiated a trade agreement, but that is an understatement.
Eight years ago, when Trump took office for the first time, Trudeau had an approval rating of 50%, the Conservative opposition was in disarray, provincial leaders were mostly cooperative, and as few as 15% of Canadians approved of Trump.
As Trump gets ready to take office again, 26% of Canadians approve of him, compared with only 23% who approve of Trudeau. Yes, you read that right: In Canada, Trump is more popular than Trudeau.
In 2016, Trudeau was seen as glamorous. Now, he is the target of derision from conservatives in Canada, the United States, and around the world, a poster boy for the kind of woke liberalism that is in retreat everywhere.
This time, Trump holds all the cards, and Trudeau is in no position to bluff.
When Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian (and Mexican) imports if Canada doesn’t stop migrants and drugs from crossing the border, Canadian Conservatives urged the prime minister to take action immediately, proposed kicking Mexico out of the long-standing Three Amigos trade pact — do whatever he can, immediately — to prevent Trump from wrecking the Canadian economy.
What Trump wants
This is how Trump operates, says Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
“Part of his negotiating tactic is to open with a threat, underneath which comes a request,” Sands says. “And with the first term it was, ‘I’m going to tear up NAFTA.’ We all ran in circles for a while, and then it became, ‘Well, unless Canada and Mexico come to the table and agree to negotiate to fix it.’ And in the end, that was the most important part of the message.”
Trump is a New York property developer, long accustomed to theatrical public negotiations.
“My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward,” Trump (or his ghostwriter) wrote in his 1987 book, “The Art of the Deal.” “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases, I still end up with what I want.”
The problem for Canadians is that it is not yet clear what Trump wants, except to dunk on Trudeau. He has said that he wants Canada to do more to stop migrants and fentanyl crossing into the United States, but the scale of the problem at the northern border is a tiny fraction of the problem facing the southern border.
Telegraphing chaos
Tyler Meredith, who was the lead economic adviser to Trudeau until last year, thinks Trump is trying to establish Canada as a problem because the northern border will be the scene of chaotic events when Trump starts deporting migrants.
“I think Canada has been pulled into that in part because he’s focused on the problem vis-à-visMexico, but he’s also thinking about it in the Canadian context because he knows that some of those people that may be deported, or who will self-deport as asylum claimants, are going to end up in Canada,” he says. “So he’s kind of saying, ‘Look, be ready, because I’m about to do this, and I don’t want to be the one blamed for it, because I’ve given you sufficient warning.’”
Meredith thinks a tighter border may not be what Trump really wants — increased defense spending and changes to the USMCA trade agreement are likely what he will get around to eventually.
That could be painful for Canada. Trump’s appointments signal anything but business as usual. Robert Lighthizer, who provided a steady hand as Trump’s trade representative last time, is out. Peter Navarro, who in 2018 said “there’s a special place in hell” for Trudeau, is in.
The Canadians will be looking to start serious talks with calm officials, like Lighthizer, but may instead find themselves dealing with more volatile people, like Navarro, who will take their cues from the trash-talking commander in chief.
Trudeau knows that his only chance of political survival hinges on managing this file properly, and it’s ultimately in Trump’s political interest to keep the trucks moving across the border, but Trump has the opportunity and, seemingly, the desire to keep bullying Trudeau until they work out a deal.
United States North? Surely, you’re joking
Donald Trump was just joking when he told Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that if Canada’s economy can’t function in the face of US tariffs, it should just become the 51st state. At least that’s what Canadian politicians on the government side are rushing to clarify.
Trump made the comment over dinner with Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago after the Canadian PM went stateside in the hopes of establishing a smooth – or smoother – working relationship with the incoming president.
Canada is desperate to avoid the 25% across-the-board tariffs Trump has promised to introduce. The tariffs would hit Canada – and the US – hard, particularly if Trudeau decides to retaliate, which he almost surely will. Cross-border trade between the two countries is worth roughly $1 trillion a year.
On LinkedIn, former Trudeau principal secretary and current Eurasia Group Vice Chairman Gerald Butts noted that this wasn’t the first time Trump had made the 51st state joke.
“Trump used this ‘51st State’ line with Trudeau a lot during his first term. He’s doing it to rattle Canadian cages,” Butts posted before offering a bit of advice.
“When someone is trying to get you to freak out, don’t. #protip”
Good advice.
Why Canadians are tired of Justin Trudeau
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why is Mexico's judiciary overhaul controversial?
Main reason is it means the judiciary is going to be less independent and much more politicized. They're going to be elected, these judges. They're going to have shorter terms. They're going to be aligned with whoever happens to be in political power. That is the intention. That's why AMLO, outgoing president, wanted this judiciary reform to get done and not be changed. But not only does that undermine rule of law and means that his preferences, his party's preferences will likely also be that of the judiciary. But also, especially in a country where there are very, very strong gangs associated with drugs, any place where they have strong governance, they'll be able to also ensure that the judges are the ones that they want, and that is a horrible development for rule of law in a country whose democratic institutions frankly aren't very consolidated. So, it's a problem and it's going to hurt the Mexican economy, hurt the investment climate.
After losing another parliamentary seat, is Justin Trudeau's time as Canada's leader coming to an end?
Certainly. Sometimes you stay a little longer than your performance merits. This is certainly the case for Trudeau. The people are tired of him. They don't feel the country's heading in the right direction. Major problems in terms of inflation, especially real estate, housing costs, lack of availability of housing, and just people wanting something different. We've seen that all over the world with elections over the last year. We're going to see it in Canada in the coming months.
2.5 years in, and 1 million now dead or injured. Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine any closer to resolution?
I'd say it's closer to resolution insofar as the Ukrainians increasingly know that it's getting harder for them to field troops, to fight, to defend their territory. That's why the risk, the risky attack inside Russian territory, which they probably can't hold, but certainly has meant that they're going to lose more territory in Ukraine. Also, certainly you talk to NATO leaders, they understand that the time for negotiations, the time for trying to wrap up the war and freeze the conflict, a ceasefire, at least, if not a negotiated settlement is soon. So, I'd be surprised if the war is still going with the level of intensity in a year as it is right now, but the Ukrainians are not going to get their land back. And what that means and what kind of guarantees they get from the West, including security guarantees potentially, certainly Ukraine very hopeful for an actual formal NATO invitation, which they don't have at this point. That is the state of negotiations happening between the Ukrainians and others.
Pierre Poilievre speaks after being elected as the new leader of Canada's Conservative Party in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, September 10, 2022.
Lines drawn on Canadian tax fight
Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre finally showed his cards on the controversial question of capital gains taxes, voting against proposed hikes and promising to cut taxes if he takes power.
The Liberals proposed the increase in capital gains taxes – which apply when Canadians sell stocks or other investment assets such as vacation properties – this spring to help offset billions in spending on housing and social support.
Trailing in the polls but still hoping to win among younger voters, the Liberals framed it as a matter of generational fairness.
Despite Polievre’s opposition, the measure — worth an estimated $19.4 billion over five years — passed easily and will soon become law.
But the vote, which came just as MPs were set to head back to their communities for the summer, sets up an ongoing war of words over the measure, with Liberals stressing economic fairness and Conservatives arguing that Liberal taxes are killing the economy.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney reacts to a standing ovation at the Canadian Club in Ottawa, Canada, on Sept. 14, 2007.
Mulroney’s passing sparks an outpouring of grief in Canada and US
Americans don’t pay much attention to Canadian politics for the simple reason that they are a less exciting version of what is going on in the US – with added snow.
However, the passing of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney at the age of 84 has prompted a flood of glowing obituary articles in many American media outlets. Politico’s headline referred to Canada losing its “Washington Whisperer” – a man who gave eulogies for not one, but two former US presidents – Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
In 2004, at Reagan’s state funeral, Mulroney said the late president possessed a “rare and prized gift called leadership.” At Bush’s funeral in 2018, he said every head of government who dealt with the former president knew they were dealing with “a gentleman, a genuine leader, one who was distinguished, resolute and brave.”
Canada’s 18th prime minister spent much of his time in office strengthening the ties with the US, efforts that culminated in the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement (which later broadened to include Mexico as the North American Free Trade Agreement).
Mulroney became a valued friend of Reagan, with the two men of Irish heritage singing “When Irish Eyes Are Smiling” with their wives at a 1985 meeting in Quebec City, which became known as “the Shamrock Summit.”
Mulroney’s popularity did not always prosper domestically because of his friendships. He was succeeded by Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, who was once caught on a hot microphone telling Belgium’s prime minister that he liked to stand up to the Americans: “It’s popular … people like it, but you have to be careful because they’re our friends.”
Mulroney had no truck with such posturing and would reap the rewards of his close relationships by being able to speak frankly to his US counterparts at crucial moments.
During free trade negotiations, the clock was ticking down on a deadline, with Canada’s red line issue – an independent dispute resolution mechanism – still unresolved. Mulroney called Reagan and asked how the US had been able to strike a nuclear arms reduction deal with the Soviets yet could not get a free trade deal with their best friend over the line. Reagan subsequently instructed his negotiating team that the dispute resolution mechanism had to be included.
When George H.W. Bush politely told Mulroney that the Europeans were tired of Canada speaking up on the future of Europe, Mulroney’s notes of the call revealed he told Bush: “Tell the Europeans we’re not renting our seat in Europe. Tell them to go to the graveyards in France, Italy, and Belgium. We’ve paid for our seat.” Bush was so moved by the response he referred to it in his memoir.
After he introduced a national sales tax in 1991, Mulroney’s approval rating plummeted. “Popularity is bad for you. I try to avoid it like the plague, and I’ve been reasonably successful,” he joked.
Yet, his political opponents kept the tax in place, and it now yields a tenth of all revenues.
Former President George W. Bush issued his own tribute to Mulroney last week, saying he was “a great man … smart, charming, funny and kind.”
Anthony Wilson-Smith covered Mulroney for many years as a reporter and wrote a touching tribute in Canada’s Policy magazine. “Mulroney was most beloved and trusted by those who knew him best,” he said, feelings that reflected his regular acts of “quiet kindness.”
Mulroney will be laid to rest in Montreal on March 23, and it is expected that some senior American public figures will attend.
He was a consequential, transformative leader, as the outpouring of appreciation on both sides of the border shows.
FILE PHOTO: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (left), President of Mexico, and Justin Trudeau (right), Prime Minister of Canada, are delivering a message to the media at the National Palace in Mexico City,on January 10, 2023, on the occasion of their meeting with Joe Biden, President of the United States, at the 10th North American Leaders' Summit, where they are discussing migration, economic and drug trafficking issues.
Will Trudeau bring back visas for Mexican visitors?
Justin Trudeausaid last week that Canada is in talks with Mexico to try to find ways to cut down on the number of asylum-seekers flying into Canada with the help of organized criminal groups.
Trudeau is under pressure from the Conservatives, and the Americans to reinstate a visa requirement on Mexican travelers, which his government lifted in 2016. The government said last month it is considering doing so.
The Biden administration would also like the visas to return because the number of migrants crossing the northern border has spiked in the past year — 2,200 interceptions in 2023, up 240% from 2022. Most of the crossings are made in the lightly patrolled areas of upstate New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
The route via Canada to the US is appealing to Mexicans and other Latin Americans who face detention and deportation at the more heavily patrolled southern border. A network of human smugglers has sprung up to facilitate the crossings, but would-be migrants face danger in the cold northern woods.
The Liberal government seems to be signaling that it’s working with Mexico rather than moving immediately to require Mexican visitors to apply for visas, which would be a setback for the trade and diplomatic relationship.
Dem bias in Ottawa has Trudeau targeting Trump
The most intense debate in the Canadian House of Commons of late has been about a humdrum trade deal update between Canada and Ukraine. It is being disputed by the opposition Conservatives because it contains reference to a carbon tax.
Since Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has made “axing the tax” in Canada his number one priority, he has removed his party’s support from the deal, even though Ukraine has had a carbon tax since 2011.
But the governing Liberals say they detect an ulterior motive: the rise of right-wing, MAGA-style conservatism in Canada that has undermined the Conservative Party’s support for Ukraine.
Trudeau’s camp takes aim at MAGA bull's-eye
The Liberals ran an online ad on Monday, ahead of a Canada-Ukraine free trade deal vote in the House, that featured a photo of Justin Trudeau shaking hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while claiming Poilievre’s party is “importing far-right, American-style politics and refusing to stand with our ally in their time of need.”
Conservatives say they support Ukraine and have just called on Ottawa to send surplus weapons – specifically 83,000 CRV7 rockets slated for disposal – to Kyiv. But the Liberals need to disrupt Poilievre’s momentum and seem convinced that comparing him to Donald Trump might do it.
After the former president won the New Hampshire primary in January, the Liberals made a direct comparison between the two men in an online ad, which said that Trump was one step closer to the White House and that Poilievre was ripping a page from his playbook. The ad noted that both men referenced “corrupt media,” their countries being “broken” and used the slogan “bring it home.”
Trump’s eye-for-an-eye approach
This is a dangerous game, given Trump is ahead in most polls and is an Old Testament-style politician, more inclined to take an eye for an eye than to turn the other cheek.
Why would Trudeau risk baiting the man who could be in the White House this time next year, where he would wield the power to enervate the Canadian economy?
The prime minister knows Trump takes note of every slight and pays everyone back with interest. After the G7 meeting in Charlevoix, Quebec, in 2018, Trudeau gave a closing press conference in which he said Canada would not be pushed around in trade negotiations by the US. According to Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, in his book “The Room Where It Happened,” the president raged against Trudeau, calling the prime minister a “behind your back guy” and ordering his aides to bad mouth Trudeau on the Sunday talk shows.
But Trudeau’s Liberals are trailing the Conservatives by up to 16 percentage points in every public opinion poll, and this tactic may work.
An Abacus data poll from Jan. 28 suggested there is some evidence to suggest that associating Poilievre and Trump correlates with voting intentions, with those who feel that the two men are different more likely to vote Conservative. Tying the two men together in a pejorative fashion is good for the electoral fortunes of the Liberal Party, so the thinking seems to go.
That remains to be seen. Attacking a political rival is always a challenge when the target is held in more esteem than the source of the attack, which is the case here, according to another Abacus poll that found Poilievre much more liked than Trudeau.
Canada’s former man in Washington says to hold fire
The risk is amplified in that the Canadian public may well see through such a transparent tactic and decide that Trudeau is putting his party’s interests ahead of the country’s.
That was the warning issued at the weekend by David MacNaughton, whom Trudeau once appointed as Canada’s ambassador in Washington. He told the Toronto Star that Trudeau is taking a risk by taking indirect shots at Trump.
Doing so will make it harder to fight Trump’s promised 10% tariffs on US imports if he comes to power, he said.
“We used to be seen by the Americans as a trusted friend, ally, and partner, and right now, I don’t think that feeling is as strong as it used to be,” he said.
That MacNaughton has been forced to say this in public suggests he is being ignored in private.
Trudeau revives Team Canada
Trudeau has revived the Team Canada approach to relations with the US that served his government well during the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement that yielded the U.S.-Mexico-Canada deal in 2018.
The new effort will be led by Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s current ambassador in Washington, Francois-Philippe Champagne, the industry minister, and Mary Ng, the trade minister (notably not Mélanie Joly, the foreign minister, or Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister who fell foul of Trump during the USMCA negotiations. “We don’t like their representative,” Trump said at the time).
Municipal mayors, provincial politicians, and business leaders will all be urged to reach out to their contacts to sell the message that the two economies are more integrated than ever. Trade statistics based on the first three years of the new USMCA show that total US trade with Canada and Mexico totaled $1.78 trillion in 2022, a 27% increase over 2019 levels.
When not criticizing “ideologically driven MAGA Conservatives” in Parliament, Trudeau has tried to sound civil.
But as professional diplomats who have worked with Republicans in the US point out, “no amount of Team Canada can overcome those ill-advised MAGA statements.”
Libs and GOP on different planets
Another problem is that the two are on different political planets.
The Liberal government is not keen on engaging with Republican politicians and officials, in part because of an aversion that dates back to the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the US Capitol.
The lack of readiness evokes memories of November 2016, when Trump was elected and the Canadian government was caught completely off-guard. The professional bureaucrats who are meant to advise governments had provided no contingency plan for a Trump administration and Trudeau had even invited the sitting Democratic vice president, Joe Biden, to Ottawa for a state dinner the following month. “They were so excited at the prospect of Hillary (Clinton), even better than Obama because she was a woman. They couldn’t wait for the transition,” said one person involved in the planning process. After Trump was elected, the Canadian government couldn’t even reach him to arrange a congratulatory call.
Louise Blais, a former Canadian ambassador to the United Nations, was consul general in the southeast US at the time – MAGA land – and had built up an array of contacts among Republicans that proved invaluable. Among other things, she secured a phone number for the president-elect.
As she wrote in the Globe and Mail last weekend, even the most conservative Republicans are friendly towards Canada, realizing the relationship is a net positive for them. But they value a rapport built up over the years, not arranged in a panic, and they cherish mutual respect.
Blais recalled how former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told her in 2016 that Republicans were hearing what Canada was saying about then-candidate Trump. “Be careful because you are picking sides,” he said.
Trade deal no protection against Trump’s tariffs
The long-standing Democratic bias at the official level is a luxury Canada can ill afford. Ottawa has a free-trade agreement with the US, but if the new president wants to impose a double-digit tariff on everything that crosses into America, Canada would be dragged into an expensive, retaliatory trade war.
Veteran Conservative MP Randy Hoback wrote on his Substack that the Canada-U.S. relationship is too critical to be jeopardized by domestic political concerns. “Trudeau’s actions are hazardous to our economy and national security,” he said.
Trudeau’s current emissaries don’t speak the same language as Trump’s party. A real Team Canada needs to include some people, like Hoback, who can speak Republican.
Trudeau and a dimming spotlight
Is Trudeau’s spotlight fading to black?
The New Democratic Party, the socialist third party in Canada’s Parliament, gave Justin Trudeau an ultimatum at the weekend that could push him to the exit.
At a convention in Hamilton, Ontario, on Saturday, NDP members unanimously passed a resolution calling for the party to withdraw its support for Trudeau’s government unless he brings in a national socialized pharmacare system.
Since 2022, Trudeau has relied on the NDP to maintain his parliamentary majority, so he must now either spend billions providing free prescription drugs to every Canadian or risk an election he would almost certainly lose.
The opposition Conservatives have been leading in opinion polls since August, and it is getting harder to imagine that Trudeau will make a comeback. This week is the eighth anniversary of the 2015 election that brought him to power. If he leads his party into the next election, it will be his fourth. No Canadian prime minister has won four in a row since Wilfrid Laurier in 1908. Trudeau increasingly looks like he is living on borrowed time.
Inflation – bad for incumbents
The opinion polls look grim. All the pollsters show the Conservatives with a hardening lead in the 10-point range, which shows that many voters have decided that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is an acceptable alternative.
The pugnacious Poilievre solidified his position in public opinion with a successful convention in September and is now seen as a preferred prime minister by 33% of Canadians, 10 points ahead of Trudeau. He keeps gathering momentum with deft social media performances. The polls show his party would win a majority if an election were held today.
Philippe J. Fournier, editor-in-chief of poll aggregator 338Canada.com, says the last time a Canadian government was this unpopular was likely in the 1990s when Brian Mulroney was prime minister. “At the federal level, I can't recall any precedent for a government that has two years to go that is so down in the polls.”
As in the United States, inflation is top of mind for voters. Numbers released Tuesday show Canadian inflation slowed to 3.8% in September, but prices are still too high for many. Inflation is mostly the result of global supply chain issues that started during the pandemic, but Poilievre has effectively blamed it on the free-spending ways of the Trudeau government. If Trudeau goes along with the NDP’s pharmacare ask, Poilievre will portray it as yet another costly government program.
Trudeau can’t tack to the right
Since making a deal with the NDP, Trudeau has enjoyed the comfort of knowing that his government won’t fall on a snap vote in the House, but it has constrained him from advancing more centrist economic policies that might appeal to voters who have voted Liberal but are now planning on giving the Conservatives a try.
There is no threat of an imminent election — the Liberals can drag their feet on pharmacare, and the NDP does not look to be in a hurry to end an arrangement that has given them a historically unusual level of influence over the federal government — but Trudeau is in a jam.
“On the one hand, they're talking about fiscal responsibility and the need to control spending,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro-Geopolitics practice. “But on the other hand, they depend on fairly expensive promises to the NDP to implement new social policy. And at some point, those two things are incompatible. They are a little bit damned if you do, damned if you don't.”
Since many Liberal MPs are staring at the near-certain prospect of defeat, it’s possible that more of them will start to oppose unpopular Liberal policies, giving Trudeau’s government fresh headaches. They must be wondering if they would be better off under a different leader.
Alternatives to Trudeau
Several of his ministers are interested in the job, but none have much of a national profile, and it’s hard to know how they would do in the job.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland — the most important minister in his government — won admiration for her forthright and energetic advocacy for Canada during trade negotiations with Donald Trump, but she has not demonstrated an ability to rally support for her economic policies, and it is not clear she would want the top job.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is telegenic and enjoys a high profile, especially in Québec, where she is an important political organizer, but she struggled as heritage minister, and critics have portrayed her as a lightweight. Also, she is a Québecer, and by tradition, the Liberal party alternates leaders. It’s not a Québecer’s turn.
The popular and unbelievably energetic industry minister — François-Philippe Champagne — is another Québecer.
Treasury Board President Anita Anand, meanwhile, won praise for her work procuring vaccines during the pandemic and dealing with a sexual harassment crisis in the defense department, but she has not demonstrated the ability to connect with voters.
Some Liberals are longingly pinning their hopes on Mark Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, but he has never held elected office, and the Conservatives say they would be delighted since he is just the kind of elitist that populist Poilievre would like to run against.
The good news for Trudeau is that there is no obvious successor waiting in the wings. The bad news for the Liberals? They can’t be sure that any of the alternatives would be any better.