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Biden's UN speech avoids China mention; US lifts travel restrictions
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at US President Biden's UN General Assembly speech, eased US travel restrictions, and Canadian PM Trudeau's election gamble.
How did President Biden's first address to the United Nations General Assembly live go?
It was okay. I thought it was very notable that China was not directly mentioned at all. So my mother used to say, if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything. Did say that the US didn't want to be in a "Cold War". That's notable, because a lot of people out there are pushing in that direction in the US and in China. Certainly it was all about multilateral leadership. The Americans want to do more. We want collective leadership. We care about values. We care about democracy, but increasingly not seen as credible by a number of Europeans, as well as by the developing world, particularly when it comes to Afghanistan, COVID, and climate. Can't just say the words, have to have a pathway to get there. It's getting more challenging for the Americans. This is a tough UNGA meeting.
The US is to lift pandemic travel restrictions. What will happen after that?
Well, thank God we're finally doing that. In November, if you're vaccinated, you can come to the United States. It's like 550 days that the Europeans weren't allowed to come to the US. And I understood why we put that in place at the beginning, but with sort of COVID cases expanding directly in the United States and people getting vaccinated all over the place, we need to be able to travel again. It's important. And frankly, it was the Paris dust-up and the withdrawal, or the recall of the ambassador that got the Americans to move more quickly. So thanks to Paris for that. Usually this stuff is just symbolic.
Did Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's election gamble pay off?
Well, sort of. I mean in the sense that he had an election and he got the same exact result that they had before, minority government does extend his term. So that's useful from his perspective. They spent/wasted 600 million Canadian dollars on it, which is nothing compared to the United States. In Canada, that's considered to be kind of crying foul. A lot of people didn't want the election. And I don't think policies are going to change one bit, but I do applaud the Canadians for having an election where nothing happened. If only that could happen in the United States.
Testing Trudeau's star power
On Monday, Canada's liberal hunk of a PM heads into early elections that no one seems to have wanted... except for him.
When Justin Trudeau announced the move back on August 15, many people questioned the wisdom of holding a national election amid the economic and public health upheavals of the pandemic. "Read the room, Justin," was a common quip, with many saying the early vote was irresponsible from a public health perspective.
So, just days out from the election, how are things looking for (the other) JT, and how — and why — did we get here?
Why did Trudeau cut short his second term? It would have seemed safer for Trudeau to wait until his term ends in 2023, giving the economy time to recover, and Canadians time to settle into post-pandemic life. When asked about his unexpected announcement last month, Trudeau offered a vague answer about the ongoing COVID response and recovery: "The government and indeed Parliament needs an opportunity to get a mandate from Canadians."
But many observers say that the early vote was a ploy for Trudeau to capitalize on strong polling amid a much-improved vaccine drive in the summer, so he could rid himself of the hassles of minority governments that make it harder to get stuff done, like expanding the social safety net with initiatives like the Liberals' subsidized childcare program. (Trudeau's Liberal party currently holds 155 out of 337 seats in the House of Commons.)
But there's growing consensus that the political wunderkind may have misjudged the collective mood. COVID has been rough for many Canadians; the services industry has shed jobs, exacerbating unemployment, while businesses dependent on cross-border travel are hurting from the US-Canada land border closure.
The last thing many Canadians wanted was a costly and emotionally-draining snap election focused on personalities. The PM is now neck-and-neck in the polls with the Conservative Party's Erin O'Toole, with both polling at around 31 percent. When Trudeau announced the vote on August 15, the Liberals were in the lead with a 54 percent chance of forming a majority government. But now he might lose the race.
Who's Trudeau up against? A former officer in the Canadian air force and corporate lawyer, O'Toole entered the political fray in 2012, and has since served an eight-year stint in the House of Commons, as well as a cabinet post as veterans affairs minister.
More recently, the conservative stalwart has shown a knack for adaptability, deeming that a middle-of-the-road approach was the best way to appeal to undecided (and unmotivated) centrists whose votes could prove decisive on election day.
As a result, O'Toole has challenged views held by many in his own party on abortion, calling himself a "pro-choice leader," and recently said that he would maintain the PM's ban on assault weapons (though he previously flip-flopped on this issue during the campaign). Moreover, in a sign of his attempt to broaden his party's appeal, O'Toole dropped his Trumpian 2020 slogan —"Take Back Canada" — in favor of "We Have a Plan," an optimistic rallying cry that has shades of Elizabeth Warren.
On pandemic stimulus, meanwhile, O'Toole said he would continue to dole out financial support, but would mostly end the scheme by the end of his first year. O'Toole's self-described fiscally-responsible recovery plan contrasts with Trudeau's policy of long-term big spending to rev up the economy.
This all poses a key question: What happens when you call an election that the people simply don't want? Chiefly, you run the risk that many voters you need to close the gap in a tight race won't show up. After six years in office, Trudeau's net approval rating currently hovers at -2 percent. This race has now become less about his parliamentary majority than about his political survival.