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India-Canada: Trudeau's "perverse politics" threatens relations, says Samir Saran
India-Canada relations have hit a crisis point following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s bombshell allegation in September that India was responsible for the murder of a Sikh leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia last June. The fallout was swift: India’s foreign ministry dismissed the accusation as “absurd,” both countries expelled top diplomats, and tensions have escalated significantly.
“Friends don’t do this in public,” Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation think tank tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, “This was something that should have always been in the private mode.”
Relations between the two countries were already tense before the allegations. India has long been pushing Ottawa to be more assertive in curtailing the Khalistan movement within Canada–a separatist movement with the goal of establishing an independent Sikh state in India’s Punjab region.
The Khalistani movement is considered a terrorist organization by the Indian government, and Saran explains it's so problematic to the Indian public that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has broad support to respond forcefully to Canada’s allegations, even within the political opposition. But despite the growing tension, Saran believes there will always be a link between the two democracies.
“I don’t think this is about India or Indians having any problems with Canada,” Saran says, “I think it’s the Trudeau government’s perverse politics being brought into the spotlight in this part of the world.”
Watch the full interview: Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder? ›
- India fires fresh salvos in dispute with Canada ›
- Canada-India relations strained by murder allegation ›
- India and Canada expel diplomats, US treads carefully ›
- Ian Explains: Why India-Canada relations are tense over a mysterious murder ›
Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder?
In September, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leveled a bombshell accusation in Canada’s House of Commons: He announced there were “credible allegations” India was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader and Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia in June.
New Delhi immediately dismissed the claims as “absurd” and demanded any evidence be released publicly, which Canada has yet to do. But the diplomatic fallout was swift: Canada expelled the head of India’s security service in Canada, and New Delhi demanded dozens of Canadian diplomats leave India.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, a top Indian think tank, to discuss the fallout from the shocking allegations, the history of the Khalistan separatist movement within Canada, and where the two countries go from here, given their strong diasporic and economic links.
“I don't think this is about India or Indians having any problems with Canada,” Saran tells Bremmer, “I think it is Trudeau's government's perverse politics that is now being brought into the spotlight in this part of the world.”
Saran also unpacks the paradox of India’s relationship with China, its second-largest trading partner, as tension continues to rise on the Himalayan border.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Podcast: Death and diplomacy: A look at India-Canada tensions with Samir Saran
Listen: The GZERO World Podcast takes a look at an international murder mystery that dominated headlines in September: Canada's allegation that India was involved in the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June. New Delhi has dismissed the accusation as “absurd” and demanded any evidence be released publicly, which Canada has yet to do. But the diplomatic fallout has been swift: Canada expelled the head of India’s security service in Canada, and New Delhi demanded dozens of Canadian diplomats leave India.
Ian Bremmer speaks with Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, a top Indian think tank, to unpack the fallout from the shocking allegations, the history of the Khalistan separatist movement within Canada, and where the two countries go from here, given their strong diasporic and economic links. Saran also discusses the paradoxical nature of India’s relationship with China and tensions on the Himalayan border, India's role in the BRICS partnership as a leader of the Global South, and the feasibility of India's ambitious goal to get 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Ian Explains: Why India-Canada relations are tense over a mysterious murder
On June 18th in a Vancouver suburb, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh leader and Canadian citizen, pulled his grey pickup truck out of a parking space at his local temple. In security video viewed by The New York Times and The Washington Post—but not yet released to the public—a white sedan can be seen cutting off Nijjar’s truck as two men in hooded sweatshirts emerge from a covered area and fire a reported 50 bullets into the pickup truck’s driver’s seat, killing Nijjar instantly.
And then, weeks later, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a bombshell accusation on the floor of Canada’s parliament. “Over the past number of weeks," Trudeau announced, "Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible accusations of a potential leak between agencies of the government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.”
Just to give you a sense of how serious this announcement was, imagine if the journalist Jamal Khashoggi had been an American citizen, and the Saudis had killed him in New York, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Canada is home to the largest Sikh community outside of India. Sikhs are a religious minority that makes up less than 2% of the Indian population. A militant wing of the community has long called for the creation of a Sikh state called Khalistan. In 1984, Sikh bodyguards assassinated India’s Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Nijjar, a supporter of the Khalistan movement who migrated to Canada in the 1990s, was accused by New Delhi of involvement in terrorist acts in India, an accusation he and his supporters have denied.
It’s a challenging time for Canada–India relations, to be sure. Trudeau raised Nijjar’s assassination with Modi at the G20 summit in early September. The answer he got in private was unsatisfactory, and he decided to go public. All of this puts the US in a tough spot: Washington has been cultivating India as a much-needed partner against China. But New Delhi has now allegedly ordered the murder of a Canadian citizen in Canada, one of the US’s closest allies. It’s a staggering violation of international law and norms, especially between two democracies. And it’s a position the Biden administration never expected to be in.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Speaker of the House of Commons Anthony Rota looks on during Question Period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
Dead cats, Nazis, and murder
Has politics ever been this interesting? In trying to understand wild stories about a Nazi in Canada’s Parliament and allegations that India assassinated a man on the steps of a temple in Surrey, British Columbia, I started to think about dead cats, wagging the dog, and flooding the zone with sh-t.
Dead Cats? Let me explain.
There are various ways to describe strategies that governments use when they want to distract public attention from one crisis. Often, they simply introduce another.
The Dead Cat Strategy was made famous by an Aussie political operator named Lynton Crosby, who used it to help Boris Johnson shift attention away from his shambolic UK leadership stumbles. Johnson actually wrote about it once, saying that when losing an argument the best thing to do is to deploy Crosby’s strategy and throw “a dead cat on the table.”
“Everyone will shout ‘Jeez, mate, there’s a dead cat on the table’,” he said, “and they will not be talking about the issue that has been causing you so much grief.” Johnson’s entire political career was, essentially, a buffet of dead cats.
Where there is a political cat, there must be a dog. “Wag the Dog” was the name of a 1997 Hollywood film about a fictional government that used military action to distract from a president’s troubles. Life imitates art. The next year, after the revelations about the Monica Lewinsky scandal blew up, President Bill Clinton ordered the bombing of a Sudanese pharmacy factory. His secretary of defense was immediately asked if the attacks were just “wag the dog” distractions from the sex scandal. Either way, it didn’t work. Do you remember the bombs or the blue dress?
And, of course, during his time as Trump whisperer, Steve Bannon infamously told writer Michael Lewis that the way to undermine the media was simply to “flood the zone with shit.” And flood the zone he did. That phrase, in my view, marked the unofficial declaration of the Disinformation War that is still raging today.
What does this have to do with the political difficulties Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing with India in the wake of the June 18 murder of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, or why the Speaker of the House invited a man who was an actual Nazi to be celebrated in Parliament during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky? (You would have to work very hard and forget some key moments in history to do something as insulting, damaging, and embarrassing as inviting a guy who was in an SS unit to Parliament to celebrate fighting … the Russians, but that is what the Speaker actually did. He apparently missed the part in World War II where the Russians were allies in the fight against the Nazis. And they say kids don’t know their history … sigh). It was not a planned channel change a la “Wag the Dog,” but the Nazi story has become a major distraction from the ongoing fallout of the Indian assassination scandal and the war in Ukraine, and that’s a huge problem.
As I outlined in my column last week, Trudeau says there are “credible allegations” that the Niijar murder was orchestrated by “agents of the” Indian government. While India denies involvement in the death of a man they regarded as a terrorist, the evidence is now overwhelming. There are recordings of Indian diplomats talking about it beforehand, and there is video of the assassination squad conducting the bloody killing — using between 40 and 50 bullets. This was a political statement, not just murder.
In the immediate aftermath, it looked like Canada would stand alone, as most countries need a close relationship with India as a hedge against China. But definitive evidence of an extrajudicial killing has a way of chilling a courtship, so now its India feeling the pressure to provide a way out.
I spoke with senior intelligence sources this week about India and Canada, and they tell me that allies like the US, France, Germany, and Australia have all urged India behind the scenes to cooperate with an investigation, even as PM Narendra Modi has escalated the diplomatic war with Canada.
Sources also tell me the US is heavily pressuring India to cooperate with Canada and find someone accountable for the murder. “There is room for accountability that does not involve Modi himself,” a senior intel source said. In other words, get some people to take the fall, show respect for the rule of law, and don’t sour more G7 relations. That way, we can all get productive on other issues. Over to you, Mr. Modi.
Canada too is feeling the pressure to do more to crack down on Khalistani-related security issues, but sources say that what India wants Canada to do in terms of monitoring and arrests could violate the Canadian rule of law. As a source told me, “India is right to say that there are extremists in Canada, but India can be dismissive about our belief in freedom of speech and the right to freedom of assembly, and we won’t violate that.”
The other thing to watch for? Arrests.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is conducting an independent investigation, and when they make arrests — it could take a while — India will be forced to be made accountable. Intel sources say they are concerned those arrests might lead to more domestic violence, so this is far from over.
In the meantime, as this killing is forcing India to decide what kind of player on the global stage it will be, Canada is consumed by the invitation of a Nazi to Parliament. There is no sugar coating this. It was a humiliating, damaging, and painful moment, and it handed Russia – which has long tried to justify its illegal, murderous invasion of Ukraine as a battle against Nazis – a huge propaganda victory.
It has also allowed the fight for continuing support for Ukraine to get bogged down in old wounds and historic battles that remain agonizing generations later. Besides exposing Canada’s hideous past in terms of allowing Nazis to come to Canada — ”There was a point in our history where it was easier to get (into Canada) as a Nazi than it was as a Jewish person,” said Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller — our eyes are now off the main thing: Russia’s invasion and how to get them out.
No one wagged the dog, tossed a dead cat, or flooded the zone here as a strategy of distraction. This time it was just pure incompetence, but the result is the same: Distortion. Disinformation. Flooding the zone with … crap.
At a time when we need to get serious about urgent issues, the timing couldn’t be worse.
India-Canada standoff heats up while US seeks a compromise
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week.
India and Canada. Not the two countries that you expected to be getting into a big public fight. But that is exactly where we are. And the Americans are uncomfortable. And sort of in the middle of it, though I'm about clearly on Canada's side. Give you a little background.
So largest Sikh population in the world outside of India is in Canada. They are politically active and relevant. They're concentrated in a few key voting areas. And while they tend to vote conservative, all three parties interested in being aligned with them. Most of them, of course, perfectly fine from a political perspective. But there also is a small group of radicals who support secession of their homeland from India. Radical organizations, some of which have been supportive of and engaged in terrorist activity in India. The Indian government has been public and very critical that the Canadians are allowing big Sikh demonstrations. Canadians say, “Hey, we have, you know, sort of freedom of speech. What do you want us to do, close down these demonstrations?” Indians, “Yes, we would actually appreciate that.” And also that they've been harboring radicals and terrorists and they need to take action against them. Then the Canadian government found out that one of the leaders of a radical Sikh institution, who is a Canadian citizen who was assassinated in Canada, found out from the Americans that the Indian government was behind the assassination. And indeed, there were recordings of Indian agents talking about this apparently before and after.
And that was shared with all the five eyes. So the UK and Australia and New Zealand, I'm not privy to this intelligence. I don't have those clearances. But leaders that I've spoken to in those countries tell me that this evidence is rock solid. So look, Trudeau very concerned about this. I mean, imagine if Khashoggi was an American citizen and gunned down in New York, right? I mean, this is clearly a big deal domestically for Trudeau wants to find a way to find an off-ramp. So back in August, he sent his national security and intelligence advisor to Delhi. She's the equivalent of Jake Sullivan in the United States. The meetings go absolutely nowhere. Indian government takes no responsibility, refuses to talk about it. Then when Trudeau himself goes to Delhi for the G-20, I had heard that the meeting between Trudeau and Modi was shockingly bad. I heard that read out from a number of people. I was very surprised because the topics they were discussing weren't so chippy. And that's because Trudeau was actually bringing this up. And Modi said, “Absolutely not. We have nothing to do with it and how dare you bring this up? And you're, by the way, harboring all these extremists and we're really angry at you.”
At that point, Trudeau decides to go public because this information is going to end up public in the criminal case around the murder and, you know, now you've got a problem. So the Indian government is, you know, taking no prisoners on this issue. They're condemning the Canadians. They have, you know, gotten rid of a Canadian envoy. They've suspended visas from Canada to India. And clearly, the trade relationship, which isn't huge, it's actually pretty small, but nonetheless would be at risk. And so too, Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy, which they announced a great fanfare a year ago, spent a lot of time writing it up. It's pretty thoughtful because their China relationship is easily as bad as America's China relationship. Frankly, it's worse and the Canadians don't have as much leverage and well you can scratch the Indo from the Pacific strategy right now. Meanwhile, Modi is enormously popular for telling off the Canadians.
First of all, it is not making all that much news. It's mostly below the fold in Indian newspapers in Canada, of course, has been leading all the coverage. In India itself, yes, big Sikh population. But those Sikhs are primarily affiliated with a political party that is in alliance with Modi's own BJP. And they strongly oppose these secessionist movements and the radicals and the terrorists that have been involved in it. In fact, you know, informally you hear people when they find out that the Indians might have actually done this such an assassination, they're kind of proud. They're like, wow, we're like Israel. Who knew that, you know, we defend our national security so well? And the Congress party, which is the main opposition party to Modi strongly supporting Modi on this issue. So it's a serious impasse. It is one that is not going to get resolved any time soon.
The Americans are trying to work a compromise because what the Canadian government wants is, you know, not for Modi to say, “I'm personally responsible and I'm really sorry,” wants to do an investigation, find out who was responsible for it,have a head or two roll, even if they're junior and then put this behind them. Modi has absolutely zero interest in doing that, especially with the Canadians. And it's unclear how public the Americans are going to get on this issue precisely because the India relationship has been a big win for the United States. And indeed, Biden was planning on going to India for their national day coming up in a couple of months as the principal guest. This could put a spanner in that. So watch it all very carefully. But that's where we are in India-Canada. A lot to pay attention to and not easy to resolve.
Hope everyone’s doing well. I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Canada-India relations strained by murder allegation
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What's the future for Canada-India relations amidst the accusation of Sikh leader murder?
Also Canadian citizen, by the way, this is the equivalent of Jamal Khashoggi if he had been assassinated in the United States as opposed to Turkey. It's a big deal. The Canadians have hard intel. They've shared it with all of their top allies. The Americans certainly see it's very credible. This is, frankly, since the Russians invaded Ukraine, US relations with all of their top security partners and allies have only gotten closer and stronger over the last 19 months. This is the single big exception to that. India and Canada, two increasingly strong security partners of the United States with a very major flap. Trudeau called them out directly. There's been, you know, already some diplomats that have been tossed out of each other's countries. Doesn't really matter from an economic perspective. There's very little trade relations between the two countries, but it matters a lot in terms of domestic politics.Indian population in Canada is pretty big, and they have fair political autonomy because they're dominant in a couple of key districts politically. The Indian government views this guy as terrorist that was killed. They also deny it, so they had nothing to do with it. And there's a lot of nationalism. So it's very hard for me to see this getting fixed any time soon. Watch how the Americans respond, because they are between a rock and a hard place in this flap.
Another missing Chinese minister. That's the defense minister. Is this a coincidence or something bigger happening?
Well, we know when we don't hear from ministers for a couple of weeks, we're not going to hear from them going forward. They have been purged. And in this case, it does look like a significant corruption issue, something that the Chinese and the Ukrainians have in common right now, except Ukrainians you still hear from. The Chinese, house arrest or a lot worse. I guess the one positive thing you can say is that with corruption still being a big problem and the Chinese clearing house domestically inside the military, they're not going to be looking to invade Taiwan any time soon. Of course, I didn't think that was going to happen anyway. But there is also the possibility that we could see a breakthrough on US-China defense relations, because this defense minister, one of the reasons the Americans didn't and couldn't see him is because he was sanctioned by the US. That will not likely be true of his successor.
Is Azerbaijan and Armenia on the precipice of full-scale war?
Hard to know whether the Armenians in Armenia will be getting involved, but the autonomous Republic of Karabakh, mountainous Karabakh, 120,000 Armenians inside Azerbaijan. They're in very serious trouble. For years, the Armenians had the upper hand. The Russians were their primary security and defense partner. They had control of their region, also took over Azeri territories, buffer territories, kicked the Azeris out of it. They didn't want to negotiate. Why? They didn't have to. Well, now they do. Now the Russians are in trouble. They're distracted. No one else is going to support them. They're in big trouble. So as a consequence, the Azeris first cut off all the humanitarian aid, cut off the ability to get any food in, any medicine in. And now they've actually invaded. They are in very seriously dire straits. It's a tragedy playing out. And I am hard-pressed to imagine anyone intervening on their behalf. Hate to see it.
Talk to you all real soon.
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Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rises to make a statement in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Sept. 18, 2023.
India and Canada expel diplomats, US treads carefully
Following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegation on Monday that the Indian government assassinated Sikh independence activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil, the two countries each expelled one of the other’s diplomats.
Ottawa booted an official that it said was heading India’s intelligence operations in Canada, while New Delhi announced it would send home a senior Canadian envoy as well.
India denies any role in the killing of Nijjar, who was gunned down in June, and the foreign ministry objected to what it said was the “interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities.” New Delhi believes Nijjar was involved in terrorist attacks carried out by Sikh separatists in India.
Meanwhile, the White House has been circumspect. The Biden Administration said it was “deeply concerned” and that it is “critical” that Nijjar’s killers be brought to justice — but refrained from directly commenting on India’s alleged involvement.
Trudeau’s allegations, of course, put Washington in an awkward position – caught between supporting an extremely close and longstanding ally, or potentially embarrassing India amid major US efforts to make inroads with New Delhi.
(For a deeper dive into the geopolitics behind the Nijjar assassination, read the forthcoming edition of GZERO North)