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Former US President Donald Trump talks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Canada braces for a Trump presidency
Canada’s Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly says Justin Trudeau’s government is working on a “game plan” for how it would respond to a right-wing, protectionist government in the United States after the 2024 election – just in case. She said she would work with local and provincial leaders as well as the business community and unions to do so.
Joly also referenced the efforts Canada made the last time, when Trudeau launched a charm offensive in 2016 in a bid to keep Trump sweet. Canadian political and business leaders made an unprecedented push to communicate with different levels of the US government and the business community about the value of the trade relationship. They eventually negotiated a new deal similar to NAFTA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
The possibility of a second round with Trump, who forced Canada to renegotiate its crucial trade relationship with the US, is widely seen as a threat to the countries’ trading partnership.
And Trump is not doing anything to calm the waters. The former president met recently with advisers at his Mar-A-Lago compound in Florida to discuss his plans for the 2024 election, according to the Washington Post. They discussed the idea of a “universal baseline tariff” on imports to the US, with Trump interested in putting a “ring around the U.S. economy.” This, Trump told Fox News, could entail a 10% tariff on all imports.
Under the terms of USMCA, most trade between Canada, the US, and Mexico is currently conducted without tariffs. But that deal is due to be reviewed and renewed in 2025-2026.
More than $3 billion in goods and services cross the border each day, everything from auto parts to building supplies to Amazon packages. In 2016, the two countries did $627.8 billion worth of trade. By 2022, it had increased to $1.2 trillion – so any disruption could have cataclysmic effects on the trade-dependent Canadian economy, as well as serious effects on the US economy, particularly in border states.
Why Mexico is a key issue in the 2024 US election
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
I'm here in Mexico City, the capital of Mexico, which is a country that is turning out to be a major potential campaign issue in the US 2024 elections. We've already seen several Republican candidates try to distinguish themselves by painting Mexico as a bad guy. Florida governor Ron DeSantis has said that he wants to militarize the border in order to stop the flow of drugs, guns and crime and illegal immigrants coming over the border. Former President Donald Trump famously renegotiated NAFTA with Mexico and used the threat of additional tariffs to force Mexico to secure its southern border to prevent Central American migrants moving up into the United States. So this is going to be a big issue over the next 12 months in the US.
Both Democrats and Republicans, likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden and potential nominee Donald Trump are vying for the votes of autoworkers inside the US, which means promising to bring more domestic production back home to the US, which could potentially hurt Mexico, which has, of course, a free trade agreement with the United States. There's also a presidential election here in Mexico. So depending on the outcome of that, that could be the opportunity to fundamentally reset relations. One likely candidate has virtually no foreign policy experience, and one likely candidate has a lot of foreign policy experience, having dealt extensively with the United States. And the outcome here is going to be important when the US and Mexico start to renegotiate the USMCA, the trade agreement that binds the three North American countries together in 2026. There is a periodic six-year agreement to revisit details of that. And as the US starts to focus more on industrial policy and production directly in the United States, this could be an issue for Mexico, who counts on the American market for a large segment of its exports, particularly in the automotive industry. The Mexican government has lagged behind a little bit other governments in taking advantage of the opportunity of the trade war between the US and China to create more sourcing opportunities out of Mexico. And that's going to be a major issue to watch over the next several years. So lots of interesting issues here in Mexico that will affect US politics.
The Graphic Truth: US-Canada agriculture trade boom
The US and Canada, whose trade relationship topped $1.2 trillion in 2022, have long been at loggerheads over one key sector: agriculture. Indeed, both countries have accused the other of putting in place protectionist policies that undermine the spirit of free trade.
This all came to a head in 2018, when then-President Donald Trump played hardball over the renegotiation of a US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement, citing Ottawa’s role – dating back to the 1960s – in stabilizing agricultural prices at home. And Trump isn’t the only one with protectionist proclivities: President Joe Biden has kept many of his predecessor’s trade policies intact.
Despite claims that broad free trade agreements have hurt their respective farming sectors, bilateral agri-trade has in fact boomed over the past few decades due to the eradication of trade barriers. We take a look at US-Canada agriculture trade since 1990.
The Graphic Truth: US trade deficit with Canada & Mexico
In 2016, Donald Trump successfully mobilized his base around NAFTA being “the worst trade deal ever signed.” He argued that US industries were being suppressed by trade deficits with Canada and Mexico, and he promised to disband the agreement if elected.
Mexico was also under pressure for renegotiation. While NAFTA turbocharged Mexican agricultural and manufacturing sectors, many thought Mexico was too reliant on the US importing its products, putting its economy at the mercy of international food prices and exchange rates.
When Trump won the presidency, he kept his promise and called for the trade deal to be renegotiated. The promise he didn’t keep: lowering the trade deficit.
The law of the land now is the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, which still gives Canada and Mexico sweeping access to export products to the US. Trade deficits aren’t inherently negative as they help consumers benefit from cheaper goods, but domestic industries do struggle in the face of increased competition.
We look at how the US trade deficit with Mexico and Canada has grown since NAFTA was disbanded.
Canada uneasy about Biden-Trump rematch in US
“Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners, and necessity has made us allies,” John F. Kennedy said in a 1961 speech to Canada’s parliament.
Politicians and columnists like to refer to that quote whenever they consider the warm and enduring relationship between Canada and the United States. But Canadians are watching with a mounting sense of dread as Americans set up a potential rerun of the 2020 election, with Donald Trump, 76, facing off against Joe Biden, 80, for a grudge match that promises to be as distasteful as a punchup at a nursing home.
Until Tuesday, it seemed possible that Biden might decide he would prefer to spend more time with his family, or napping, and let someone in their 70s take over. But, no. He’s in.
And this week, Trump started to look like he has a lock on the GOP nomination. Of course, it is still early. By this time in the 2016 cycle, Trump had not even declared, and the Times’ resident poll interpreter was predicting an easy win for Jeb Bush. Lots can happen before the Republicans meet in Milwaukee next July, but I think we all know the arc of history is bending toward the “rough beast” of Mar-a-Lago.
The first big clue was the reaction of Republican voters to his indictment for allegedly funneling hush money to a porn star, which was apparently just the signal that on-the-fence Republicans were waiting for. The second was the continued failure of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to respond effectively to Trump’s putdowns, a familiar pattern from 2016 when Trump ran his hapless rivals through the woodchipper one by one. Desantis is no better at handling the Donald than Sens. Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio and looked weird and rattled when asked about that in Tokyo this week.
So Americans look intent on setting their aging champions against one another again. Canadians can only say good luck, and may the best man win.
But if Canada had a vote, Trump would be out. Canadians prefer Biden by a huge margin, polls show.
PM Justin Trudeau, like most Canadians, will be pulling for Biden. Trudeau doesn’t seem as close to Biden as he was to Barack Obama, but they are progressive allies, and in Ottawa last month he and Biden announced a new border deal that allowed Canada to shut the irregular crossing at Roxham Road. The Inflation Reduction Act remains a worry for northern policymakers, since it may draw jobs and capital south, but in Ottawa, Biden spoke cheerfully about the opportunities for both countries. Trump, in contrast, created huge headaches for Trudeau when he was president with his confrontational approach to trade.
“The last time Trump was elected, it forced Canada to waste three years renegotiating its most important trade agreement,” says vice chairman of Eurasia Group Gerald Butts, who helped Trudeau negotiate that deal as his principal secretary. “And that's just one of many things that cause problems for Canada. In the context of a live shooting match with Russia, the prospect of a Trump presidency is existential for NATO. This ain't dairy policy.”
But could Trump help Trudeau win votes? Since the American election will likely happen before the next Canadian one, there might be an electoral upside for Trudeau. If he can link his Conservative opponent, Pierre Poilievre, to Trump, it could benefit the prime minister at the polls.
But politics isn’t everything.
“Elections are short term, and governments are long,” says Butts. “And it's not good for whoever is the government of Canada if Donald Trump is in the White House.”
It is not just Liberals who fret about Trump, says Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto.
“He’s a flamethrower. And that’s obvious now to everybody. So even people in Canada who like the message, and there are more than we think, there has to be some hesitation because he’s so erratic.”
Would Trump put the USMCA at risk? Experts say he’s unlikely to rip up the trade deal he negotiated as it would require him to undermine his own work.
“USMCA is up for review in 2025-2026,” says Stein. “I think it’s unlikely that he would tear it up a second time. And the Inflation Reduction Act is more protectionist than what Trump did.”
But that doesn’t mean the two men would get along. Christopher Sands, director of the Wilson Center's Canada Institute, imagines it would be a difficult relationship and one defined by “a cascade of negative vibrations.”
If things get too heated, it is even possible Trump could turn on Trudeau. “Trump would have no reason not to make him a foil and just say, ‘Well, yeah, look at Justin Trudeau. He thinks he's so smart. But what he did was he tried to pick our pockets, and we're gonna show him. We're gonna get rid of the USMCA, and we're gonna do this and do that,’” says Sands.
Whatever might happen between Trudeau and Trump, there are powerful forces in both countries that would act to protect the vital trade relationship. The US is Canada’s best customer, and vice versa. If that is threatened, business and labor would put pressure on governments to sort it out, no matter who is running either country.
Kennedy said our countries are friends, which makes us all feel good, but Henry Kissinger was likely closer to the truth when he said that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”
The good news for Canada is that it is in America’s interest to get on with its neighbor.
What the US and Canada really want from each other
US President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally had their COVID-delayed summit in March 2023. Biden and Trudeau clearly get along, and US-Canada ties are as strong as ever. Yet, some thorny issues still need to be ironed out.
The two neighbors see eye-to-eye on things like immigration or pushing back against China and Russia. But there's friction on Haiti and especially on the US Inflation Reduction Act, whose subsidies are wooing Canadian green biz south of the border.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer discusses the bilateral relationship with David Cohen, the US ambassador to Canada, and Kirsten Hillman, Canada's Ambassador in Washington. Then, Ian asks Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand why she won't let her kids use TikTok (amongst other pressing national security questions).
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Advantage Mexico
With so many other international stories dominating the news these days – Russia’s war in Ukraine, US-China tensions, Iran’s nuclear program, etc. – it’s easy to lose track of more positive stories. And when it comes to Mexico, the headlines suggest the country is struggling.
And I could write that story too. In most media, today’s Mexico conjures images of violent drug cartels and other organized crime groups, trouble at the US border, or large-scale protests led by an opposition that accuses the country’s president of a power grab that threatens democracy.
Mexico has its share of problems. But today, I want to give you three reasons for optimism that, politically and economically, Mexico is strong and getting stronger.
The China substitute
First, Mexico’s economic success remains closely tied to economic growth in the United States. (In 2022, Mexico’s total trade with the state of Texas was five times higher than its total trade with all of Latin America.) Over the years, that’s been a mixed blessing. When the US economy weakens, Mexico’s export revenue takes a hit. There are fewer remittances flowing south from Mexicans working in the United States. There are few American tourists pumping dollars into Mexican cities, towns, and businesses.
But over the decades, the US economy has remained strong and is currently running hot. Even with high inflation and rising interest rates, the US job market is strong, consumers are spending, and pandemic-weary tourists are traveling.
Mexico’s exports are surging. The country’s consumer confidence is close to its highest point in a generation. Add the reality is that the war in Ukraine has put strong upward pressure on global energy prices, boosting Mexico’s oil revenue. As the war grinds on, that advantage is likely to continue.
But the factor that matters most for coming years is souring US sentiment on relations with China. The Biden administration, both Democratic and Republican members of Congress, and many US governors are pushing for a significant national security and strategic decoupling from China and Chinese companies. US businesses are increasingly less confident they can navigate complicated US-China politics, abrupt changes inside China like the 180-degree turn on COVID policy, and other factors to continue to do profitable business in China.
Who benefits? Mexico. Particularly as “nearshoring” becomes a much more familiar word for many Americans. Nearshoring is the practice of shifting investment in manufacturing, production, and business operations closer to home to avoid the problems that come with both political risk and dangerously long supply chains.
Mexico already has the world’s 15th largest economy. While China, much of Europe, and Japan are aging, Mexico also has excellent demographics. Its population tops 130 million; its median age is 29.
A cost-conscious populist
Then there’s the country’s president. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has his fans and his detractors. But overall, he’s remarkably popular. After four years in office, his approval rating stands at 63%. How has he accomplished that? Mexico’s chief executive has crisscrossed the country by car and commercial airlines, visiting people and places, particularly in southern states, where national politicians are rarely seen.
But, talented populist though he is, he hasn’t bought support by launching a state spending spree. Even after the pandemic, Mexico’s debt-to-GDP ratio still stands at a healthy 50%, because the leftist López Obrador, aka AMLO, has confounded critics by both expanding the country’s tax base and keeping government spending in check.
Nor does Mexico’s president face the problem of balancing relations with multiple other countries. AMLO understands that his country’s giant neighbor is its primary source of both opportunities and challenges, and he’s invested in pragmatic relations with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. His economic ambitions center on strengthening and expanding the USMCA trade agreement (NAFTA 2.0) rather than on hedging bets on Europe and Asia.
Strong institutions
The one area where AMLO is picking a fight that won’t help Mexico is on the question of judicial oversight of government. At the moment, he’s going after Mexico’s National Electoral Institute, which administers elections, by trying to cut 80% of its funding. This plan has filled Mexico City streets with hundreds of thousands of angry protesters, who warn that if he succeeds, AMLO would undermine Mexico’s ability to hold free and fair elections.
But the president isn’t going to succeed. The country’s Supreme Court is going to rule against him, and though AMLO can (and probably will) call on his own protesters to block traffic, Mexico’s governing institutions are plenty strong enough to keep the country moving forward.
In fact, that’s the lesson from Mexico’s presidential election of 2006, which AMLO lost by the smallest of margins and then rallied his supporters to occupy the center of Mexico’s capital for many weeks. But as I wrote in September 2006, the country’s political institutions absorbed that shock with no great difficulty. Politics continued. The currency remained stable. The economy moved forward.
AMLO has continued to wage war on a political elite he believes is plagued with corruption and cost him victory 17 years ago. But now, as then, Mexico is politically mature enough to handle challenges even larger than we now see in the president’s standoff with courts.
Finally, AMLO has given no indication he wants to remove presidential term limits from the country’s constitution, and unlike former US President Donald Trump and Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro, he and his party are genuinely popular and have no need to contest the next election outcome with violence. And all of AMLO’s likely successors agree with the merits of nearshoring and deeper integration with the US, reinforcing the country’s long-term economic stability.
Make no mistake: Mexico will continue to face major challenges in the years ahead. Mexico must continue to develop its infrastructure, energy, and water supplies to fully benefit from nearshoring opportunities. Crime, corruption, and the need to manage shifting US border politics will remain formidable obstacles to progress. But advantages both external and internal provide a solid foundation for progress.
Optimism about Mexico's political and economic future
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here. A happy Monday to you and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I'm just back from Mexico, Mexico City myself, and lots of fascinating meetings, lots of takeaways. Thought I would give you some of my sense of what is happening there, Mexico and Mexico's context in the world.
First thing I would say is I come away pretty optimistic about where the country is heading overall, and some of that is the context of Mexico in an environment where China-US relations are getting a lot more challenging. There is some significant national security and strategic decoupling that is happening at the behest of US administration, governors, members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans. And also, there's a lot more uncertainty about doing business in Xi Jinping's China itself, given the rapid and sudden changes on COVID, on how to do business as a technology company, on rules and regulations for the private sector, rule of law and its absence, local competition, you name it. And so, even though I still fairly strongly believe that China's going to become the largest economy in the world by 2030, the idea that US corporations will be able to take as much advantage of that is increasingly uncertain. Almost any business leader you talk to in the United States is saying, "Yeah, China is an important market for us, but we are being more cautious about how much we want to invest there, going forward. At the very least, we're putting a pause on some of the big decisions we're making." And in many cases, they're starting to reduce some of that forward looking exposure.
Who are you going to invest towards if you're not investing in China? Well, Mexico in many ways is the country that stands to benefit the most outside of the United States. And indeed, in every meeting I had in three days in Mexico, I was hearing about near-shoring. It's a kind of awkward term, but basically the idea of multinationals based in the United States, doing a lot more on the ground in Mexico. Mexico's the 15th largest economy in the world. It is a large population, it's quite young, it's hardworking. The demographic's increasingly very attractive and it's strongly integrated into the US economy and supply chains. The fact that Tesla had just announced a $10 billion investment near Monterey while I was there was a big boost, a shot in the arm for the Mexican economy that a lot of people were talking about.
And so as a consequence, I mean, there's no question I meant think back on Lula's days, his first time around as president and how much his popularity was benefited by the fact that the economy was in a commodity super cycle and indeed, led to some 80%, even 90% of times approval ratings. I think that right now, Mexico benefits significantly from right place, right time, given what's happening geopolitically.
Now, looking to Mexico itself, I have to say that I was also surprised that Mexico's CEOs and bankers, who have been enormously negative pre-pandemic about then new President AMLO, and he doesn't like him, he doesn't want to talk to him, he's going to be a disaster, he is going to lead the economy into ruin, this time around, I heard still plenty of criticism, but also a recognition from the CEOs in Mexico and the bankers that, "Well, actually, he's not been as bad as we expected." What do you mean by that? Well, he hasn't actually raised taxes, he hasn't spent money on the fiscal balance that the government doesn't have. In fact, in many ways, he's been conservative as a leader in terms of small government, fiscal hawkishness. Mexico's debt to GDP is 50% right now and has stayed stable despite the pandemic. That's caused some challenges in terms of the ability of Mexico to make large scale investments into its domestic economy, given the pandemic. But nonetheless has made the business community feel more comfortable with him.
Instead, there's been a focus on tax collection and on reducing government expenditure. So much so that there's a problem on execution, weakening and inefficient, but nonetheless, comparatively talented civil service in Mexico. It's a reason why when you go to the World Bank or the IDB, you see so many former Mexico technocrats in the bureaucracy, because they were always seen to be some of the most talented from all of the Western hemisphere. Overall, I would say the Mexican economy is positioned to do quite well over the coming, let's say five, 10 years.
The domestic political issues are the biggest concerns. In particular, President Lopez Obrador going after his country's electoral institute, trying to take away some 80% of their funding, which would, if it went through, undermine the ability of Mexico to have free and fair elections. And there's really no justification for that decision. AMLO claims it's because he actually won the 2006 election, which was razor thin decided against him. And it's also why he was quite late to congratulate Biden on his 2020 win, you might remember that. And even some of his own supporters are befuddled by it, since AMLO's Morena party is likely to win upcoming elections anyway. Unlike Trump, Erdogan, Orban, Bolsonaro, all of these leaders, it's not like AMLO needs to gut Mexico's democracy in order to keep his party in power. But the other point is that he's also likely to fail at this so-called electoral reform as Mexico's Supreme Court will rule against the so-called reform. And there've also been massive demonstrations against it across Mexico, largely from the middle and upper classes, showing the power of Mexico's civil society which is hardly going away. This is not going to become an autocracy, just as Brazil hasn't, just as the United States hasn't.
And when he fails, he's almost certainly going to call his supporters against the corrupt Supreme Court, as he would have it, all of which does undermine rule of law in the country. I will say that I am less worried about this than some in the same way that I was less worried about January 6th in the US as not a coup, or January 8th in Brazil as not a coup and not able to fundamentally undermine democracy in these countries. In part because I fully expect AMLO will be out after his single constitutionally mandated six-year term, and I also think that either of his potential Morena party successors won't have the same charisma or capacity to pursue these sorts of policies.
But also, and here I think this isn't appreciated by many of AMLO's opponents, I do think that there are real issues here. I mean, AMLO is broadly skeptical of all sorts of, as he calls them, neo-liberal conservative elites, that's a mouthful, and their institutions, because they've had enormous access and influence across the board historically, including in the judiciary. They really could shape policy or stop initiatives, given their influence over all branches of government. There has been corruption. There has been a lot of corruption in the distribution of social benefits, in influence over Congress and legislation in procurement processes. Tax authority, where the Mexican government had been clearly letting companies off the hook, which AMLO has tried to change at least somewhat successfully. And I think part of the elite anger at this administration is that the elites can no longer influence the regulatory and legislative policy as they could before. And while the judiciary is an important and necessary check on AMLO's power, it's also hard to argue that economic elites haven't had undue influence on Mexico's court system. Both of those things are actually true.
There are other places I could spend time, there's been very limited success in curtailing violence in Mexico, dealing with the drug cartels. That's a long history of failure in Mexico and I don't come away any more optimistic from my trip in Mexico this week. I am a little bemused by the criticism though, that AMLO doesn't travel internationally enough. And it's true, he almost never leaves the country. He's been five years in office now, I think he's been to the United States four times, each time for one day. And he made one trip to Central America and Cuba and that's it. I mean, for the head of a G-20 economy, that is unheard of. And he also doesn't really care.
But I want to say it's not like there's any particular debate about Mexico's development model. It's not like people are saying, "Oh, maybe we need to work more with Europe or hedge with China." AMLO has zero interest in that and indeed, one of the first things he mentioned to me was his concern that China's growth would unbalance the geopolitical order and lead to conflict. There's something that underpins this that's very important, which is last year, Mexico's trade with Texas was five times its total trade with all of Latin America.
Unlike Brazil, unlike other developing countries where there's lots of discussion about potential competing development models, there really isn't with Mexico. It is a US and USMCA focused model and I think appropriately so. Meanwhile, AMLO has been traveling relentlessly across Mexico by car or on commercial airlines, meeting with the Mexican people. And he's the first president in a very long time that's spent that kind of time with Mexico's poor across the country and that's a big piece of his popularity, which has been quite high over the course of his entire term. I personally would like it if he would travel more because I care about foreign policy. But in the context of Trump's America First or Biden's US foreign policy for an American middle class, you can certainly understand that you can have more sympathy.
And I think about my own friend, Iván Duque, who I've known very well for years now, the former Colombian president, he's loved by the Washington establishment, but ultimately was very unpopular in Colombia, in part because he was seen as being kind of a creature of Washington consensus and not as interested in Colombia. And I think AMLO completely gets that in today's geopolitical environment, that just doesn't play.
I think the right comparison for AMLO on the global stage is Modi, India's prime minister, in terms of he's from the underclass. In the case of Modi, from the under caste, focuses on the underclass and wants to take on colonial elites and their institutions that have always been unpopular with the average people in the country. That includes the independent media and NGOs which are viewed, even if somewhat unfairly, as educated elites that don't care about the people and haven't historically.
By the way, when I mentioned the Modi comparison to AMLO, he immediately liked it. In fact, recognizes that he doesn't do as well in Mexico as Modi does in India because Modi also has the Hindu nationalism call card that he can play and does play, which AMLO is certainly not doing in terms of Catholicism and the role in Mexico's government institutions. Now, of course, that's a mixed bag. Because while Modi has become an essential friend to the United States as a part of the Quad, the relationship can only get so close and there is that tension between the United States and Mexico, and the West and Mexico accordingly.
But I do think that putting all of that in context gives you a lot more balance about what's happening in Mexico right now and Mexico's role with the US and Mexico's role that it doesn't have with a lot of the rest of the world than we've been reading in a lot of the media, and as a consequence, I thought it was really interesting to talk about it.
Anyway, that's it for me and I'm delighted that I've had a chance to get back there and I'm sure I will be again real soon, and I hope everyone is well. Talk to you soon.
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