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Marines conduct combat rubber raiding craft operations from the well deck of the USS Green Bay in the Philippine Sea, Feb. 6, 2022. The US commander-in-chief said on Feb 22, 2022 he had authorised the movement of additional forces and equipment to bolster NATO allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as Russian troops being ordered to eastern Ukraine following Vladimir Putin recognition of the independence of two separatist regions.
NATO’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific
NATO was founded in 1949 as a counterweight to the Soviet Union, but 75 years on, the alliance’s gaze is shifting toward China. Its members are increasingly concerned about the evolving security dynamic in the Indo-Pacific and Beijing’s growing influence around the globe, which helps explain why leaders from New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Australia — countries that are partners with the alliance — are attending the NATO summit in Washington this week.
NATO in recent years has begun to see China as a “potential threat” and a shared challenge to be addressed amid efforts by Beijing to “undermine institutions in Europe” and “potentially threaten European infrastructure,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told GZERO Media on Tuesday at a meeting on the sidelines of the summit.
“There is a growing concern among NATO allies about PRC activities, and having Indo-Pacific countries at the summit this week is a great way to share perspectives on what they’re seeing,” Kirby added. “They’re actually feeling and seeing the threats by the PRC in a much more real, tangible way, in some cases, than NATO is.” Relatedly, Australia on Tuesday accused China-backed hackers of targeting government and private sector networks with cyberattacks.
NATO officially pointed to China as one of the alliance’s “challenges” for the first time back in 2019, breaking from its traditional focus on Europe and threats emanating from the Kremlin. The alliance has continued to characterize China as a security challenge in the time since, particularly in the face of growing cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.
China is not thrilled about NATO forging closer ties with countries in its neck of the woods and has effectively accused the alliance of trying to duplicate itself in the Indo-Pacific. NATO is “breaching its boundary, expanding its mandate, reaching beyond its defense zone and stoking confrontation,” Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Monday.
Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder, in comments to GZERO Media at a summit sideline event on Tuesday, denied that there is an effort to “build a NATO in the Indo-Pacific” and pointed to the war in Ukraine as one of the primary reasons the alliance is increasing cooperation with countries in the region. Between North Korea providing munitions to Russia to fuel its war machine and China offering other forms of support to Moscow, it’s no surprise that NATO believes it’s “important to have a relationship with countries in the Indo-Pacific to address these threats.”
Similarly, Kirby said that Indo-Pacific countries attending the NATO summit have “seen what’s happening in Ukraine and just won’t stand for it” and are trying to find ways to support Kyiv.
From the moment Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there have been concerns that it could serve as a model for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his ambitions in Asia — especially in relation to Taiwan.
China is closely watching what’s happening in Ukraine and what the world is doing in response, and “they’re learning lessons,” warned Kirby.
Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanes
Did Papua New Guinea just pick a side?
The Australian government on Thursday signed a security pact with its nearest neighbor, Papua New Guinea (aka PNG) that strengthens its – and America’s – position as a primary security partner in a region where China’s influence is rising.
The agreement was finalized six months later than initially scheduled, primarily because PNG harbored reservations about being perceived as favoring one side over another. During this delay, China actively sought PNG's participation in a comprehensive security pact involving nine other Pacific Island nations, though the initiative eventually collapsed. Despite having entered into a defense agreement with the United States in May, PNG asserts that it remains impartial and has not aligned itself with any particular side.
PNG is a diverse developing nation in a strategically important part of the South Pacific. Australia’s push for the agreement came after the neighboring Solomon Islands struck a security pact with China last year, sending shockwaves through the Pacific and raising fears of a Chinese naval base being established there.
While specifics about the Australia-Papua New Guinea deal have not yet been published, both nations said they achieved their goals. Amid rising US-China tensions, Pacific Island nations are a geostrategic chessboard. The security pact is a win for the US, and also a signal that PNG and its neighbors will be increasingly pressured to take sides.
A supporter of Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernandez in Bogota.
What We’re Watching: Colombia’s “anti” runoff, Pacific meh on China, Sudan ends emergency
It’s anti vs. anti in Colombia presidential runoff
Colombians wanted change? Well, now they’ll have no choice! In the first round of the country’s presidential election on Sunday, the top two finishers were leftist opposition leader Gustavo Petro (40%) and Rodolfo Hernández (28%), an independent populist tycoon who surged late in the campaign with an anti-corruption message. The two will head to a runoff on June 19. Both promise a radical reorientation of the Andean country at a time of high inequality, rising violence, and simmering social tensions. For Petro, the answer lies in super-taxing the rich, massively expanding the social safety net, and decarbonizing the economy. Hernández, meanwhile, wants to slash taxes, shrink the state bureaucracy, and even legalize cocaine. We’ll have more to say ahead of the runoff, but for now: has the election of any other major economy in recent memory featured a presidential runoff between TWO stridently anti-establishment figures like this?
We don't need you, Pacific countries tell China
In a stunning rebuke, eight Pacific countries spoiled China's big (virtual) summit for the region by turning down — for now — a wide-ranging partnership proposal with Beijing that Western powers view as a Trojan horse. "The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focused on power," Fiji's PM Frank Bainimarama tweeted Monday after meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Yi has been on a whirlwind tour of the region to rally support for Xi Jinping’s vision for the region. But his trip started on the wrong foot when Fiji signed up Friday for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Washington's latest answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The double snub was welcomed by Australia, who's the most worried about Beijing gaining influence in the neighborhood. Still, China has already scored an important goal by signing a controversial security deal with the Solomon Islands — and is negotiating a similar agreement with Kiribati. Wang tried to allay fears, urging Pacific island countries to not be "too anxious" to pass on Beijing’s offer. So we expect the geopolitical point-scoring between China and the West to continue.
Sudan lifts post-coup state of emergency
Finally, some good news from Sudan. Hours after lifting a seven-month state of emergency (in place since the October 2021 coup) on Sunday, authorities began releasing some jailed protesters. For months, the country has been rocked by massive street protests that have killed almost 100 people — many of them shot by security forces — as the calls to scrap the decree had reached a fever pitch. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says that ending the emergency will create good vibes for a "fruitful and meaningful dialogue that achieves stability during the transitional period," which means he’s ready to talk to the civilian wing of the cabinet. Why the change of heart? Simply put, money. Sudan needs to return to civilian rule in order to get Western aid and debt relief to help its economy, which has gone from bad to worse with the generals in charge and is now on the brink of collapse. But don't get too excited: al-Burhan now must convince the same civilian leaders his soldiers removed in the coup that he’s now serious about handing over power.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.