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A flyer with the image of Colombian left-wing presidential candidate Gustavo Petro and Colombian centre-right presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernandez.
It's populist vs. populist in Colombia
Voters around the world often say they want change — but rarely are they presented with no choice but to elect a radically different political outsider. That’s what’s happening this weekend in Colombia’s presidential runoff that’s unlike any other in recent memory: the contest pits a populist against … another populist.
The context: Colombians are fed up. And why not? The past several years have seen two separate explosions of popular protest over inequality and taxes. The pandemic, meanwhile, pushed 3.5 million more Colombians into poverty, and inflation is at its highest level in more than 20 years. Cocaine production has recently touched all-time highs, and violence and petty crime are rising again after years of decline. Small wonder that a recent poll by Invamer, a Colombian agency, found that nearly 75% of Colombians think their country is headed in the wrong direction.
“This is an important election regardless of who wins,” says Elizabeth Dickinson, a Colombia analyst at International Crisis Group. “The two candidates have pitched to voters the idea that they are able to surmount and undercut a ruling political elite who have monopolized the politics and the economic advantages of the state for more than half a century.”
But their visions for how to do that are starkly different.
Left-wing opposition leader and former Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro is a lifelong critic of the conservative, monied elites in business and politics. He wants to radically overhaul the system to redistribute wealth, expand the safety net, and wean the country off of fossil fuel extraction. His running mate, Francia Márquez, is an outspoken Afro-Colombian activist on behalf of the country’s severely marginalized Black population.
Critics worry that Petro, who was a Marxist guerrilla in his youth, could be the next Hugo Chávez. But he says he is merely trying to build a more equitable and democratic society in a country with one of the world’s largest gaps between rich and poor.
Populist real estate tycoonRodolfo Hernández has focused more on the country’s corrupt political class. The outspoken, impulsive 77-year-old — whose permanent tan and disdain for political correctness have won him comparisons to Donald Trump — surged to second place in the first round with a bold anti-corruption message and a superb TikTok account. His ideology is hard to pin down. Hernández says he wants to slash taxes, fire a third of the bureaucracy, raise tariffs, shame corrupt officials publicly, and invest more in Colombia’s rural communities.
Hernández’s opponents say he is inexperienced – his only political job was mayor of a mid-sized city – and worry about his respect for institutions. He once slapped a councilman in the face, and he is under indictment for an alleged kickback scheme. But his supporters say he’s a breath of fresh air in a country suffocated by career politicians. Polls show that 80 percent of Colombians think government corruption is "widespread."
Both candidates want to re-establish ties with Venezuela, explore drug legalization, and revise the current free-trade and strategic relationships with Washington, potentially rankling ties with Bogotá’s most important military and economic partner.
Polls say it’s a dead heat. Both men are polling at about 46-47%, according to the last pre-election aggregation of polls. In the event of a close result, the risk of one candidate or the other claiming fraud is high, and the police are already on alert for potential violence.
But how much will really change? It’s difficult to tell. “This doesn’t depend only on one person,” says Yann Bassett, a political scientist at Bogotá’s Rosario University, “but on the ability to build a strong coalition in Congress.”
And neither man has a majority there. Petro’s party has the largest share of seats, and he is a seasoned politician with a clear agenda. But he would face immense pushback from the country’s elites.
Hernández’s fledgling party, meanwhile, has almost no representation in Congress, and his broadsides against career politicians might make it hard for him to build bridges. His policies and convictions are also more of a black box, according to Brian Winter, editor in chief of Americas Quarterly. “I just don’t see how he’s going to get his agenda across,” he says, “or even how consistent his agenda will be over time.”
The limitations on both of the “change” candidates could mean things aren’t upended as much as voters seem to want.
“The risk of disappointment,” says Bassett, “is just enormous, no matter who wins.”
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernández speaks at a news conference in Miami.
Will the “Colombian Trump” win the presidency?
The second round of Colombia’s presidential election on June 19 will pit leftist Senator Gustavo Petro against populist businessman Rodolfo Hernández. While Petro would represent big structural change from the conservative establishment that has governed the country for decades, Hernández would represent a change in the way politics are done. Petro, a three-time presidential candidate and prominent critic of the current administration of President Iván Duque, had initially appeared likely to run away with the election. But Hernández, a newcomer to the national political stage, came on strong in the late stages of the campaign and finished a close second to Petro in the 29 May first round of the election.
We spoke to Eurasia Group analyst Sara Torres Raisbeck to find out a little more about who Hernández is, and what Colombia might look like if he wins.
Who is Rodolfo Hernández?
The 77-year-old Hernández, a construction magnate, served as the mayor of a medium-sized city called Bucaramanga from 2015-to 2019. He is running for president on an anti-corruption and anti-establishment platform. The son of farmers, he got a degree in civil engineering and built a successful business that focused on urban housing for low- to middle-income residents. He has three sons and a daughter. His daughter disappeared in 2004 after she was allegedly kidnapped by the National Liberation Army, a Marxist guerilla group.
In a shift from the traditional practice of organizing campaigns around public events, the plain-spoken (and sometimes profane) Hernández has built support for his candidacy with TikTok videos — he calls himself the “King of TikTok” — and online outreach. He has said he has financed the operation himself and has a staff of just 13 people, most of whom are under the age of 30.
As mayor of Bucaramanga, Hernández was popular, leaving office with an 84% approval rating. That’s despite the fact that he was suspended from office twice: once for slapping a local council member and another time for endorsing his chosen successor, which is not permitted in Colombia. On the second occasion, he decided to quit and was replaced by his chief of staff.
Moreover, Hernández is under indictment for unlawful favoritism in the award of contracts for garbage collection in Bucamaranga when he was mayor and has been charged.
What are his politics?
Hernández shows both libertarian and social-democratic streaks. He wants small government and less regulation of businesses, but he has also made progressive proposals, such as legalizing narcotics, supporting adoption by same-sex couples, opposing fracking, and implementing protectionist measures to help the agricultural sector.
Hernández has drawn comparisons to Donald Trump — why is that?
Both are wealthy businessmen who abhor political correctness and say the establishment is inherently corrupt. Also like Trump, Hernández has shown a disdain for political processes and existing institutions. He has said he would declare a state of emergency on his first day in office to allow him to rapidly push through measures such as the closure of 27 Colombian embassies abroad and the reduction of legislators’ salaries. He has also said that he admires Latin American populist leaders such as El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Both campaigned on anti-corruption platforms and, once in office, tried to concentrate more state power in their own hands.
What are his chances against Petro?
The runoff will be very tight. Both candidates appeal to an electorate suffering from economic malaise and deep discontent with the political status quo. Petro wants to radically expand the social safety net and raise taxes on the wealthy, while Hernández proposes changes in the way government works. He says he would approach the presidency in the same way a CEO manages a company, focusing on results and cost-effectiveness. Hernández, in addition, can appeal to conservative and moderate voters who see Petro as too leftist.
However, some of Hernández’s novelty may be wearing off as his liabilities come under greater scrutiny. Petro is — somewhat unexpectedly after years of being an opposition leader — positioning himself as someone who will preserve the country’s relatively strong institutions. Hernández, Petro says, is a jump into the unknown.
What would a Hernández administration mean for Colombia?
It would represent a very new way of doing things. As mayor of Bucaramanga, Hernández sought to fill offices with technocrats as opposed to political appointees, and he sought to make the awarding of public contracts more competitive and transparent.
He has repeatedly said there are many subjects he is unfamiliar with, so he would rely on a team of technocrats to make decisions. Yet the legislative process would likely be gridlocked owing to Hernández’s lack of representation in congress. His political movement Anti-Corruption League holds just two of the 172 seats in the lower chamber of congress and his confrontational stance toward traditional politicians would complicate his ability to build new bridges.
If he wins the presidency, his garbage-related corruption case would pass to the Accusations Committee in Congress, which could in principle oust him from office — leaving his Vice President Marelen Castillo as president.
Is there any aspect of Hernández's candidacy that you think isn't being covered well enough by international media?
Hernandez’s technocratic approach to governance and focus on results doesn’t get enough focus. Members of his staff when he was the mayor of Bucaramanga recently issued a statement highlighting his achievements in office there. They said Hernández expanded the average number of companies bidding on public contracts from 1.4 companies to over 40, reduced the city’s debt to zero, and reactivated social investment projects that had languished under previous mayors. Moreover, he placed women in most of the key decision-making positions, including those of secretary of finance, infrastructure, security, and transport.
In a word, what is the choice that Colombians are being asked to make this Sunday?
Change.
A supporter of Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernandez in Bogota.
What We’re Watching: Colombia’s “anti” runoff, Pacific meh on China, Sudan ends emergency
It’s anti vs. anti in Colombia presidential runoff
Colombians wanted change? Well, now they’ll have no choice! In the first round of the country’s presidential election on Sunday, the top two finishers were leftist opposition leader Gustavo Petro (40%) and Rodolfo Hernández (28%), an independent populist tycoon who surged late in the campaign with an anti-corruption message. The two will head to a runoff on June 19. Both promise a radical reorientation of the Andean country at a time of high inequality, rising violence, and simmering social tensions. For Petro, the answer lies in super-taxing the rich, massively expanding the social safety net, and decarbonizing the economy. Hernández, meanwhile, wants to slash taxes, shrink the state bureaucracy, and even legalize cocaine. We’ll have more to say ahead of the runoff, but for now: has the election of any other major economy in recent memory featured a presidential runoff between TWO stridently anti-establishment figures like this?
We don't need you, Pacific countries tell China
In a stunning rebuke, eight Pacific countries spoiled China's big (virtual) summit for the region by turning down — for now — a wide-ranging partnership proposal with Beijing that Western powers view as a Trojan horse. "The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focused on power," Fiji's PM Frank Bainimarama tweeted Monday after meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Yi has been on a whirlwind tour of the region to rally support for Xi Jinping’s vision for the region. But his trip started on the wrong foot when Fiji signed up Friday for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Washington's latest answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The double snub was welcomed by Australia, who's the most worried about Beijing gaining influence in the neighborhood. Still, China has already scored an important goal by signing a controversial security deal with the Solomon Islands — and is negotiating a similar agreement with Kiribati. Wang tried to allay fears, urging Pacific island countries to not be "too anxious" to pass on Beijing’s offer. So we expect the geopolitical point-scoring between China and the West to continue.
Sudan lifts post-coup state of emergency
Finally, some good news from Sudan. Hours after lifting a seven-month state of emergency (in place since the October 2021 coup) on Sunday, authorities began releasing some jailed protesters. For months, the country has been rocked by massive street protests that have killed almost 100 people — many of them shot by security forces — as the calls to scrap the decree had reached a fever pitch. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says that ending the emergency will create good vibes for a "fruitful and meaningful dialogue that achieves stability during the transitional period," which means he’s ready to talk to the civilian wing of the cabinet. Why the change of heart? Simply put, money. Sudan needs to return to civilian rule in order to get Western aid and debt relief to help its economy, which has gone from bad to worse with the generals in charge and is now on the brink of collapse. But don't get too excited: al-Burhan now must convince the same civilian leaders his soldiers removed in the coup that he’s now serious about handing over power.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Colombian presidential candidate Gustavo Petro signs an alliance with his running mate in Bogotá.
Will Colombia really elect a leftist?
As Colombians prepare to vote this Sunday for their next president, the country may be on the verge of a historic political shift. Though the race has tightened, senator and three-time presidential candidate Gustavo Petro maintains his lead in the polls, positioning him to become the country’s first-ever leftist leader. What are the drivers of this momentous change? We spoke with Eurasia Group analyst Sara Torres Raisbeck to find out.
Who is Gustavo Petro?
A former fighter with the M-19 leftist guerilla movement, Petro won a seat in congress in 1991 after the M-19 decided to put down its arms and join the political process. In the following years, he served in the lower and upper houses of congress, representing a series of different leftist political parties. He first ran for president in 2010 but finished a distant fourth in that contest. He served as the mayor of Bogotá from 2012 to 2015, though the Prosecutor General removed him from office temporarily for mismanaging the city’s garbage collection system. Petro ran again for president in 2018 on a leftist and anti-corruption platform but lost in a runoff to the current president, Iván Duque.
Since then, as senator, Petro has been the most prominent critic of the administration and of the country’s socially conservative, business-friendly political establishment more broadly. He has an environmentalist and nationalist vision for Colombia that involves moving the country away from its reliance on oil production while raising taxes on the rich, pardoning student debt, and creating a universal public pension system.
Why is he leading the polls?
Colombians are unhappy with the status quo. Discontent with a lack of economic opportunities had started to build even before the pandemic that drove over 3.5 million people into poverty and left nearly half a million unemployed. Massive street protests triggered in April 2021 by a failed tax reform deepened the desire for change. As the leading voice of the opposition, Petro has benefited the most from these conditions. His coalition received the most votes in the 13 March primaries and legislative elections, though it fell short of achieving majorities in congress.
Why has the country never had a leftist president?
A power-sharing agreement between the Conservative and Liberal parties known as the National Front (1958-1974) defined modern Colombian politics. Designed to end decades of violent struggle between the country’s two largest parties for control of the government, the agreement largely excluded other forces from the political process, particularly those who were most concerned about the inequalities of wealth and land distribution in the country. Beginning in the 1960s and early 1970s, several leftist guerrilla groups arose, among them the FARC and the M-19. In the 1980s and 1990s the conflict between the state and these groups became extremely violent.
In one notable incident in 1985, the M-19 occupied the Palace of Justice in a bloody siege that killed dozens and created a legacy of distrust toward the left. In that same period, paramilitary groups, many supported by drug cartels, sprang up across the countryside to fight the leftist militants. They also killed a series of left-leaning presidential candidates and thousands of political officeholders.
These years marked the exodus from politics of many leftist leaders and sympathizers. But increasing violence by leftist militant groups such as the FARC, which ultimately aligned itself with drug traffickers, built public support for a harsh crackdown by the Colombian military, especially under former President Alvaro Uribe, who was in power from 2002 to 2010.
So, how did the left recover?
Uribe had the highest approval ratings of any Colombian president on record, but support for his hardline (mano dura) policies started to ebb in 2007 following reports of civilians killed by the state’s security forces. When Uribe’s successor Juan Manuel Santos signed a peace agreement with the FARC in 2016, Uribe bitterly opposed it. The resulting polarization over the deal led a large segment of the population to sour on the center-right establishment represented by Uribe. Meanwhile, a newly enlarged middle class created by a period of rapid economic growth in the 2000s started demanding more social services and economic opportunities, especially for the nation’s youth. These trends have all benefited the left.
Who are Petro’s main challengers in the upcoming vote?
Following a recent rise in the polls, former Bucaramanga Mayor Rodolfo Hernández may be Petro’s biggest competitor. The owner of a construction business, Hernandez is running on an antiestablishment and anticorruption campaign platform that competes directly with Petro’s. He has the potential to attract not only voters seeking change, but also those who see Petro as too far to the left. Another leading contender is former Medellín Mayor Federico Gutiérrez, who is the candidate of the center-right coalition and is widely perceived as the continuity and pro-establishment candidate. The two top finishers in the May 29 vote will go to a runoff on June 19 if neither obtains more than 50% of the vote, which is likely.
What would a Petro administration look like?
Petro’s election would mark a historic shift leftward. Yet his room for maneuver would be limited by the state’s straitened finances, a lack of congressional majorities for his coalition, and high levels of political polarization. He would be forced to water down his ambitious proposals in the areas of tax and pensions, for example, to attract support from members of the opposition.
A Colombians prepare to vote, what will you be watching most closely?
Trends in voter turnout will be key, especially to determine whether Gutiérrez or Hernández makes it to a likely runoff against Petro. Voters in the coffee-producing region favor Gutiérrez while those in the center-west and center-southern regions of the country favor Hernández. Ahead of the election, the candidates will have one last chance to make their case to voters in a final debate on Thursday. Hernández has already said he won’t be participating, which could hurt him since he has less name recognition than Petro or Gutiérrez.
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