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FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden poses with Federated States of Micronesia's President David Panuelo, Fiji's Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape and other leaders from the U.S.- Pacific Island Country Summit (not pictured), at the White House in Washington, U.S. September 29, 2022.
Biden piles on the charm in the South Pacific
Leaders of over 20 Pacific Island nations will arrive in Washington on Monday for a two-day US-Pacific Island Forum Summit, the second such gathering in two years.
While the meeting officially focuses on climate change, economic growth, and sustainable development, China’s growing clout in the region also looms large. The United States has been accused of abandoning the South Pacific since the end of the Cold War, creating a vacuum that China has aptly filled. As of 2021, Chinese trade with the region stood at $5.3 billion, up from just $153 million in 1992. China has built infrastructure and lent money to a number of Pacific nations, including to the small archipelago of Tonga, now in debt $286 million to China for a series of rebuilding projects.
But nowhere has China’s influence campaign been more successful than in the Solomon Islands. In April 2022 its President, Manesseh Sogavare, signed the first South Pacific security pact with China, authorizing Chinese navy ships to make routine port visits to the Solomons. In July 2023 Sogavare paid a state visit to Beijing, inking a two-year plan for police cooperation. Back home, Sogavare stands accused of using Chinese funds to buy political support and silence dissent; he will be notably absent at this week’s gathering in Washington.
In response, Biden is reopening the American embassy in the Solomons and also plans to establish diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands and Niue.
Why play tug-of-war over these small nations? Diplomatically, every South Pacific nation has an equal vote in forums like the United Nations. China has already convinced several to drop their recognition of Taiwan in favor of Beijing. Economically, they control access to fishing and seabed minerals over a vast territory. Militarily, they are strategically positioned and could be crucial launching pads in any future conflict over Taiwan. Micronesia, for example, lies within striking distance of the American military base in Guam.
But it’s not just the big powers who are jostling for power in the region: India, Indonesia and South Korea are also seeking influence to maintain access to global shipping channels.
January 6th Committee votes on criminal referrals against Trump.
What We're Watching: Jan 6. panel's final report, Japan's nuclear U-turn, Fiji's unresolved election, Venezuela's opposition shakeup
Jan. 6 committee suggests Congress ban Trump from office
After an 18-month inquiry, the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol has released its final report, blaming Donald J. Trump of a “multi-part conspiracy” to overturn the 2020 presidential election results and of failing to stop the insurrection when he knew the situation was spiraling out of control. The report also points fingers at some of Trump’s former wingmen – such as Mark Meadows, Trump’s final White House chief of staff, and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani – naming them as potential “co-conspirators.” So what now? The report lays out steps to prevent this sort of calamity from happening again, including a proposal to strengthen the 14th Amendment's ban on insurrectionists that would prevent Trump and his enablers from ever holding office again. Though the report – which Trump has called “highly partisan” – carries no legal weight, it sends a powerful message to the US Justice Department, which is conducting its own investigation into the Jan. 6 attack.
Japan reverses course on nuclear power
Japan announced on Thursday that it will extend the lifespan of its existing nuclear power plants, restart mothballed ones, and build new facilities to replace those that get phased out. PM Fumio Kishida says this is necessary to maintain the power supply while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But it's a major about-face for Japan, which in 2011 shut down all its atomic plants after the Fukushima meltdown, the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl. On the one hand, public support for embracing nuclear has turned around recently due to rising energy costs and Japan's push to wean itself off Russian oil and natural gas. On the other, the archipelago remains as vulnerable to seismic activity as it did when a magnitude 9 earthquake triggered a tsunami that rocked Fukushima — not to mention what happened to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Do you think Japan is doing the right thing? Let us know here.
A self-coup in Fiji?
Fiji is known for its pristine beaches, world-class scuba diving, and kava, the mildly hallucinogenic national drink. But its politics have a dark side: Every few years, there's a military power grab. After a recent messy election delivered a hung parliament, an alliance of three opposition parties on Friday confirmed an earlier deal to return former PM Sitiveni Rabuka to the premiership. But current PM Frank Bainimarama won't concede and had responded by deploying the army to help the police maintain "law and order." Many Fijians are suspicious — after all, Bainimarama came to power 16 years ago in a bloodless coup, as did Rabuka in 1987. What's more, the recent unrest has rekindled a long-held beef between majority ethnic Fijians and minority ethnic Indians. We don't know how this will all turn out, but things are not looking good in this Pacific island paradise.
Is Guaido’s time up?
Four years ago, Juan Guaido was touted as Venezuela's rising political star, who was going to rescue the country from strongman President Nicolas Maduro and bring better days to the people of Venezuela. Now, the former wunderkind is on the verge of being ousted as head of the opposition ahead of a vote next week in the National Assembly. At least 70 lawmakers from three of the four parties that make up Venezuela's opposition say they will back a motion to ditch Guaido as leader. “We can’t continue with a strategy that has shown no results,” one lawmaker said. In 2018, after general elections that were broadly seen as a power grab by Maduro, Guaido set up a shadow government backed by the West. But as Maduro has retained control of the military, and Guaido’s domestic popularity has plunged to around 17% – only a handful of Western governments (including the US) now recognize him as the country’s legitimate president. Infighting within the opposition is good news for the Maduro regime, which was already buoyed by the US recently easing some sanctions on its oil sector. Critics say Guaido has made no progress in moving the country towards new elections. But who will replace him?
A supporter of Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernandez in Bogota.
What We’re Watching: Colombia’s “anti” runoff, Pacific meh on China, Sudan ends emergency
It’s anti vs. anti in Colombia presidential runoff
Colombians wanted change? Well, now they’ll have no choice! In the first round of the country’s presidential election on Sunday, the top two finishers were leftist opposition leader Gustavo Petro (40%) and Rodolfo Hernández (28%), an independent populist tycoon who surged late in the campaign with an anti-corruption message. The two will head to a runoff on June 19. Both promise a radical reorientation of the Andean country at a time of high inequality, rising violence, and simmering social tensions. For Petro, the answer lies in super-taxing the rich, massively expanding the social safety net, and decarbonizing the economy. Hernández, meanwhile, wants to slash taxes, shrink the state bureaucracy, and even legalize cocaine. We’ll have more to say ahead of the runoff, but for now: has the election of any other major economy in recent memory featured a presidential runoff between TWO stridently anti-establishment figures like this?
We don't need you, Pacific countries tell China
In a stunning rebuke, eight Pacific countries spoiled China's big (virtual) summit for the region by turning down — for now — a wide-ranging partnership proposal with Beijing that Western powers view as a Trojan horse. "The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focused on power," Fiji's PM Frank Bainimarama tweeted Monday after meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Yi has been on a whirlwind tour of the region to rally support for Xi Jinping’s vision for the region. But his trip started on the wrong foot when Fiji signed up Friday for the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Washington's latest answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The double snub was welcomed by Australia, who's the most worried about Beijing gaining influence in the neighborhood. Still, China has already scored an important goal by signing a controversial security deal with the Solomon Islands — and is negotiating a similar agreement with Kiribati. Wang tried to allay fears, urging Pacific island countries to not be "too anxious" to pass on Beijing’s offer. So we expect the geopolitical point-scoring between China and the West to continue.
Sudan lifts post-coup state of emergency
Finally, some good news from Sudan. Hours after lifting a seven-month state of emergency (in place since the October 2021 coup) on Sunday, authorities began releasing some jailed protesters. For months, the country has been rocked by massive street protests that have killed almost 100 people — many of them shot by security forces — as the calls to scrap the decree had reached a fever pitch. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says that ending the emergency will create good vibes for a "fruitful and meaningful dialogue that achieves stability during the transitional period," which means he’s ready to talk to the civilian wing of the cabinet. Why the change of heart? Simply put, money. Sudan needs to return to civilian rule in order to get Western aid and debt relief to help its economy, which has gone from bad to worse with the generals in charge and is now on the brink of collapse. But don't get too excited: al-Burhan now must convince the same civilian leaders his soldiers removed in the coup that he’s now serious about handing over power.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Fiji scrambles to provide aid as cyclone toll rises
SUVA, Fiji (AFP) - Reconnaissance flights showed entire villages wiped out in Fiji on Saturday (Dec 19) as authorities put the cost of devastating Cyclone Yasa at hundreds of millions of dollars and the death toll rose to four.
Taiwan says diplomat sent to hospital after China spat in Fiji
The incident happened on Oct 8 when Taiwanese diplomats tried to stop two Chinese diplomats from forcing their way into a Taiwan national day reception in Fiji.
'Desperate' Fiji eyes virus-free tourism bubble with Australia and New Zealand
SUVA, FIJI (AFP) - Tourism-reliant Fiji has proposed a "travel bubble" to welcome visitors from virus-free countries, as the South Pacific holiday hotspot desperately tries to revive its stalled economy.