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Russia's President Putin and North Korea's leader Kim meet in Amur region.
Putin toasts to “strengthening of cooperation” with Kim Jong Un
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for several hours on Wednesday in Russia’s far east region amid reports that the Kremlin is looking to buy ammunition and weapons from Pyongyang due to dwindling stockpiles at home.
What's more, as the meeting was underway, North Kora fired two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast that landed in the sea.
It was the first time that Kim, an international pariah, has left the North in some four years. Putin, for his part, walked his friend through Russia's most modern space rocket launch site, while confirming that “all issues” were on the table – a nod to the fact that Pyongyang wants both economic aid – notably food and grain – and military tech in the trade.
The Kremlin also held a state dinner to reinforce the budding friendship.
The two also toasted to Putin’s war in Ukraine, with Kim affirming that North Korea “stand with Russia in the anti-imperialist, self-reliant front.” Still, as an increasingly isolated Putin looks for more friends, as Ian Bremmer notes, using the pariah Kim to prove that he’s not totally isolated – particularly just as the UN General Assembly gets underway in New York – is hardly a winning diplomatic strategy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un.
Kim Jong Un meets Vladimir Putin
Infamous North Korean recluse Kim Jong Un does not leave the Korean Peninsula much, but he’s currently on route to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin.
It’s the first time that Kim, who’s making the long journey by train, has left the North in some four years, and his last trip abroad was also to the Russian city of Vladivostok where he’s expected to disembark on Tuesday. The Kremlin is treating it as a full state visit.
What do the two autocratic leaders want from one another? After 18-months of war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is reportedly in the market for weapons due to depleted stockpiles and large quantities of faulty munitions. What’s more, Western sanctions have made it harder for Russian arms companies to import critical parts to make new weapons. The Kremlin has already turned to fellow rogue friend Iran for assistance.
But Pyongyang can help too. Having invested the bulk of state funds into his war machine – even as his population goes hungry – Kim Jong Un has rockets, ammunition and artillery shells aplenty to offer the Kremlin, many experts say.
It wouldn’t be an unprecedented move either: Pyongyang has long helped sanction-hit states like Syria and Myanmar skirt sanctions by selling them arms.
That said, given North Korea’s penchant for secrecy, it’s impossible to know how much help Kim can really offer – Vladimir Putin will most certainly want to know.
What does Pyongyang want in return? The cash-strapped, heavily sanctioned regime reportedly wants grain and cheap oil from Moscow. Kim may also want access to advanced rocket technology for his nuclear weapons program. Still, both sides will have to come up with prices the other is willing to accept.
Two rogues sending a message: Setting aside the transactional nature of the meeting it also provides an opportunity for two leaders isolated from the West to show that they have options – even if those options aren’t great.
The Graphic Truth: Russian and Chinese oil exports to North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok is in part meant to highlight that both leaders – though isolated – still have friends in high places. Putin is expected to ask for additional arms from North Korea, while Pyongyang wants economic and material help as it struggles with ongoing food shortages and perennial economic mismanagement.
Here’s a look at recent oil exports to North Korea from Pyongyang’s two closest allies, Russia and China.
A TV screen shows an image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang.
North Korea hacked who now?
For five months in 2021-2022, North Korean hackers ran wild in the systems of a top Russian missile company, according to a new report by Reuters.
The breach of NPO Mashinostroyeniya, which makes Russia’s cutting-edge hypersonic cruise missiles, was discovered by Reuters and a team of cybersecurity experts who were tipped off when an IT person at the Russian company uploaded info about the hack to a server monitored by global cyber analysts.
These are friends, right? Despite some hiccups over the years about Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programs, Moscow and North Korea have generally enjoyed good relations, and since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two countries have drawn closer as Putin looks for non-Western partners who know a thing or two about isolation.
It’s unclear what intel the North Koreans got in the hack. But experts note that shortly afterward, Pyongyang debuted a missile powered by solid fuel, a tricky technology that makes it easier to deploy the weapons undetected. NPO Mashinostroyeniya had been developing similar fuels.
The company discovered the breach itself, but we don’t know if the Kremlin was informed, so keep an eye on Russia-North Korea ties in the coming weeks for any fresh fallout.
Either way, the episode shows two things: First, Russia’s elite military technologies are hackable by those with the right skills, and second, there’s a trust deficit even in the Kremlin’s closest partnerships. Recall that Russia recently arrested a scientist for passing hypersonic secrets to China.
And yes, there’s a song for this: GZERO’s Puppet Regime satire series is on it. “With friends like these, who really needs enemies?”
North Korean soldiers on a vehicle carrying rockets during a military parade in Pyongyang.
What We’re Watching: Russia buys North Korean arms, EU tilts at windfalls, Indonesians take to the streets
Russia scrambles for weapons
Newly declassified US intelligence claims that Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea. If true, this is yet more evidence that a Russian military leadership expecting a quick victory in Ukraine following its Feb. 24 invasion has badly miscalculated both Russia’s capabilities and the intensity and effectiveness of Ukrainian military resistance. The weaponry North Korea is providing is not the high-tech, precision-guided munitions that US and European export controls are designed to prevent Russia from producing. These are basic weapons that Russia appears unable to produce in needed quantities. US intelligence also suggests that a significant number of drones Russia has been forced to purchase from Iran have proven defective. These revelations underscore two important problems for Russia. First, Western sanctions are badly disrupting Russian supply lines, making it impossible for the Russian arms industry to produce the weapons that Russia would need to win the war in Ukraine. Second, while China remains happy to buy Russian oil, it has so far proven unwilling to defy US warnings not to violate weapons and parts sanctions against Moscow.
EU tilts toward windfalls
With energy costs now firmly in the stratosphere, the EU will propose a fresh bloc-wide windfall tax on energy companies. The proceeds of the temporary measure, which EU energy ministers will debate on Friday, would be used to support households and energy-intensive industries struggling amid the continent’s worst energy crisis in half a century. In a twist, the measure will include even renewable energy companies that do not depend on hydrocarbons. After all, these companies have also seen record profits over the past year because all European energy prices are now based on gas prices, which have soared due to post-pandemic supply crunches and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Italy and Spain have already tried versions of these taxes, and Germany last weekend unveiled a $65 billion scheme of its own that depends in part on windfalls. The EU hopes the measure — combined with fresh caps on Russian gas prices and other incentives to cut energy consumption voluntarily — will help the bloc weather its worst energy crisis in half a century. But there are questions about how to structure a windfall tax that is both legal and fair. Now that we’re into the months that end with “r”, Brussels has precious little time to figure it all out. Winter, as they say, is coming.