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North Korea recently conducted its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile in almost five years. Pyongyang claims that the Hwasong-17 is its most advanced missile to date. Theoretically, the multi-warhead and nuclear-capable projectile (whose name means “Mars” in Korean) can reach the US mainland. We take a look at the range of North Korea’s missiles.
The photo, published on September 29, 2021, by the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), shows the launch of what North Korea claims to be a new hypersonic missile, from Toyang-ri, in the Ryongrim region, in the province of Jagang, which was carried out this Tuesday.
Kim Jong Un breaks the sound barrier: North Korea has announced the successful test of a "strategic weapon" that travels five times faster than the speed of sound. The Hwasong-8 missile, which is believed to be nuclear-capable, is a hypersonic weapon which is much harder for missile defense systems to track than conventional ballistic missiles. The US, China, Russia, and India are the only other countries known to be working with this highly sophisticated technology. And although experts aren't quite sure how developed the Hwasong-8 actually is, this is the third missile test that North Korea has conducted in the last month, suggesting that Pyongyang is getting plucky again as nuclear negotiations with the US remain in a deep freeze.
A European springtime — just before winter: After a year and a half of pandemic-related restrictions, dread, and economic uncertainty, Europeans are finally shopping, eating out, and going to the movies as much as they did in the days before COVID. This resurgent confidence has a lot to do with rising vaccination rates and falling numbers of new infections: nearly three-quarters of adults in the EU are now fully vaccinated, even if rates in Eastern and Southeastern Europe still lag. Still, as we noted yesterday, the good times could quickly run into a looming crisis of energy prices that is shaping up just ahead of winter.
Japan's ruling party plays it safe, again: Japanese politics are clearly not ready for disruption. On Wednesday, elites of the governing Liberal Democratic Party picked Fumio Kishida, a bookish former top diplomat under former PM Shinzo Abe, to replace the deeply unpopular and equally low-profile Yoshihide Suga as party leader. Kishida's main rival, the US-educated vaccine minister Taro Kono, actually got more votes than him in the first round, when rank-and-file members get to cast ballots, but in the runoff the party's bigwigs opted for Kishida's trusted pair of hands over the more outspoken Kono. Japan heads into general elections in November, but the LDP's majority is so strong — and the opposition is so weak — that Kishida is all but assured to be PM after the vote. Party elders evidently don't want to rock the boat too much as Japan struggles with an ailing economy and growing tensions with China.Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the China-US economic relationship, North Korea's missiles tests, and the New York Times' investigation of the US drone strike in Afghanistan.
China owns more than $1 trillion US debt, but how much leverage do they actually have?
I mean, the leverage is mutual and it comes from the enormous interdependence in the economic relationship of the United States and China. And it's about debt. And it's about trade. It's about tourism. It's about sort of mutual investment. Now. There is some decoupling happening in terms of labor, increasingly moving domestic in terms of the China five-year plan, dual circulation focusing more on domestic economy, and in terms of data systems breaking up, the internet of things, being Chinese or American, but not both. And indebtedness is part of that. But I don't see that unwinding anytime soon. And certainly, the Chinese knows if they're going to get rid of a whole bunch of American debt, they wouldn't be as diversified in global portfolio. Not as great, it's much riskier. And also, the price of those holdings, as they start selling them down would go down. So, I don't think there's a lot of leverage there, frankly. I think the leverage is interdependent.
North Korea tested new long-range cruise missiles. What message is Pyongyang trying to send?
Well, they're medium-range missiles. They don't have the ability to hit the United States. And if you remember in the early Trump days, that was the red line. It also started reprocessing at Yongbyon, again their facility; that is, they had stopped that. I mean, clearly this is a couple of incidents where Kim Jong Un is angry that he's not getting engagement in any sanctions reduction from the Biden administration. Certainly no bilats, and so he's pushing a little bit. He wants more attention and he's going to get it from the Biden administration, but I don't think he's going to get much of a negotiating stance change. And in that regard, I would expect at some point more saber-rattling from Kim Jong Un. Maybe that could be more destabilizing. But what we're seeing right now are very early days.
What was revealed in the New York Times' investigation of the US drone strike in Afghanistan?
Well here, this is an ugly one. I mean, this is 10 Afghan civilians who were killed in this drone strike by the United States. President Biden, and seniors in the administration, and the Joint Chiefs, Milley, and others said that this was a strike that got a suicide bomber who was about to attack the United States and Afghan civilians at the Hamid Karzai International Airport. That was not the case. That information was faulty. The trigger finger was too quick. And as a consequence, the last act on the ground of the Americans at a 20-year war in Afghanistan was killing a bunch of civilians. It's horrible. Certainly, accountability needs to be made. The New York Times did a fantastic job of forensic investigating on the scene. They had to be applauded. Surprised it hasn't gotten more news, frankly, more coverage. Broadly though, now the US troops are all gone in Afghanistan, we are not spending as much time talking about it. So, but we still will, here at GZERO.
