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Russia's President Putin and North Korea's leader Kim meet in Amur region.
Putin toasts to “strengthening of cooperation” with Kim Jong Un
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for several hours on Wednesday in Russia’s far east region amid reports that the Kremlin is looking to buy ammunition and weapons from Pyongyang due to dwindling stockpiles at home.
What's more, as the meeting was underway, North Kora fired two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast that landed in the sea.
It was the first time that Kim, an international pariah, has left the North in some four years. Putin, for his part, walked his friend through Russia's most modern space rocket launch site, while confirming that “all issues” were on the table – a nod to the fact that Pyongyang wants both economic aid – notably food and grain – and military tech in the trade.
The Kremlin also held a state dinner to reinforce the budding friendship.
The two also toasted to Putin’s war in Ukraine, with Kim affirming that North Korea “stand with Russia in the anti-imperialist, self-reliant front.” Still, as an increasingly isolated Putin looks for more friends, as Ian Bremmer notes, using the pariah Kim to prove that he’s not totally isolated – particularly just as the UN General Assembly gets underway in New York – is hardly a winning diplomatic strategy.
People watch a news report on North Korea firing what it called a space satellite toward the south, in Seoul, South Korea.
Hard Numbers: South Korea’s false alarm, Kyiv targeted, Sudan’s broken truce, Iran’s persecuted journalists, UK’s cheese tussle
124: South Koreans awoke Wednesday to frantic government warnings to seek shelter after North Korea launched its first spy satellite into space. But minutes later, Seoul told residents they could relax because Pyongyang’s projectile had gone bust, landing in waters 124 miles west of a South Korean island.
3: Russian airstrikes on Kyiv overnight killed three people, including a child. Two of the victims – a nine-year-old girl and her mother – were killed after they tried to enter a bomb shelter at a medical clinic during the strike but found it locked from the outside.
25 million: The Sudanese military said it will abandon a recently implemented ceasefire after six weeks of conflict with the Rapid Support Forces, a rival militant faction. Both sides accuse the other of violating the truce. Fighting is now expected to ramp up in the country, where the UN says that 25 million – more than half the population – already rely on humanitarian aid to get by.
2: Bogus trials have begun for two Iranian journalists who reported on the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini in Sep. 2022. Niloofar Hamedi’s charges include “collaborating with the hostile government of the United States” for reporting on Amini’s arrest, while Elaheh Mohammadi is being similarly charged for covering the slain woman’s funeral. Both could face the death penalty.
7: Hundreds of people flocked to a southwest English city this week to watch a group of revelers chase a 7-pound (3-kilogram) wheel of Double Gloucester cheese down a hill. (The winner gets to gloat and keep the cheese.) But the event is not without safety concerns: The 19-year-old who won the women’s race was briefly knocked unconscious before getting back on her feet and soaring to victory.Freed Houthi prisoners stand as they wait to board an International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)-chartered plane at Aden Airport, in Aden, Yemen.
Hard Numbers: Yemen prisoner swap, North Korea’s new missile, Germany ditches Russian imports, gender parity in Kiwi cabinet, Juice headed to Jupiter
900: In the biggest prisoner exchange in Yemen since 2020, 900 prisoners are expected to be swapped in the days ahead as part of ongoing talks between Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, and the Saudi-backed government. The confidence-building measure comes amid rising hopes that Yemen's brutal eight-year war might soon come to an end.
1,000: North Korea launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile test in a month, with some reporting that Pyongyang tested an advanced, harder-to-detect missile for the first time. Following a 1,000-kilometer flight (620 miles), the missile landed in waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Japanese authorities on the northern island of Hokkaido urged residents to seek shelter.
91: German imports of Russian goods dropped by 91% during the first year of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Moscow had previously been the country’s 11th-biggest source of imports, but as a result of Western sanctions has since dropped to … 46th place.
10: Jacinda Ardern may have bowed out, but women leaders are getting ahead in New Zealand. For the first time, the country has gender parity in the cabinet. Thanks to a reshuffle by PM Chris Hipkins, there are now 10 women and 10 men in his cabinet.
8: Citing poor weather conditions, the European Space Agency has delayed the launch of a satellite to the planet Jupiter, an ambitious mission that will take eight years. The Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer project, dubbed Juice, aims to explore whether the fifth planet's major moons hold deep bodies of water. The agency will try again in the coming days.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau during a bilateral meeting at the North American Leaders' Summit in Mexico City, Mexico, January 10, 2023.
Biden-Trudeau talks focus on immigration and defense
Amid the pomp and pageantry accompanying President Joe Biden’s first official visit to Canada, he and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau are looking to make some deals.
Even before Biden’s arrival late Thursday, news broke that the two countries had reached an agreement on irregular migration flows across the US-Canada border, a sticking point for both governments. An influx of asylum-seekers across the Roxham Road crossing into Quebec has dogged relations, with nearly 40,000 migrants crossing in 2022 alone.
Trudeau has been asking the US to renegotiate the Safe Third Country Agreement, which requires asylum-seekers who cross select border points to be sent back to the country where they first entered. Why? Because it encourages migrants to enter at irregular crossings like Roxham Road, and once they’re in Canada they can legally make asylum claims.
The precise details of the new migration deal are still under wraps, but Canada has reportedly agreed to take in 15,000 migrants from the Western Hemisphere through official channels. The agreement also would reportedly allow both countries to turn away asylum-seekers who cross the border without authorization.
The Biden-Trudeau talks on Friday are also expected to turn to defense. Last month’s Chinese spy balloon fiasco has led to increased pressure on both leaders to ramp up security. North Korean missile tests and Russian advances in missile technology have added more urgency to North American defense.
A new Maru Public/GZERO poll finds that the vast majority of Americans and Canadians (93% and 91%, respectively) want the two countries to boost security efforts, and most Canadians favor either a joint missile-defense system or having US missiles on Canadian soil.
With both Canada and the US being behind on the modernization of the North American Aerospace Defense Command – much of its radar systems are from the 1980s – Friday’s discussions are likely to touch on NORAD investment.
Biden is expected to push Trudeau on military spending – like many NATO members, Canada lags behind its defense spending target of 2% GDP. Canadian NORAD officials complain that current military capabilities are sluggish. Last year, Trudeau’s government pledged $4.9 billion to upgrade NORAD, but Americans are skeptical about the speed at which Canada can deliver.
The war in Ukraine is also putting Arctic defense back on the map. The Maru/GZERO poll showed that majorities in both the US and Canada support a joint military presence in the Arctic. Receding ice in the region has freed up shipping lanes, portending new access to lucrative resources like oil and rare-earth minerals. The region’s security would take on even more geopolitical importance should Finland and Sweden join NATO, possibly making it a new frontline pitting Russia against the West.
There's no shortage of thorny issues for Biden and Trudeau to tackle, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine. For more on the presidential visit, be sure to join us on Twitter Friday at 12pm ET. We’ll be talking with Forbes' Diane Brady, Eurasia Group's Gerald Butts, and GZERO's Evan Solomon, breaking down what Biden and Trudeau need to accomplish during their meeting. Set a reminder here.
To stay up to date on crucial US-Canada relations, be sure to subscribe to our new newsletter, GZERO North.
A Somali refugee girl carries her sibling in the Hagadera refugee camp near the Kenya-Somalia border, in Garissa County, Kenya, January 17, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Somalia’s deadly drought, Yemen prisoner swap, North Korean war games, a happier world?
43,000: Somalia’s longest-recorded drought claimed 43,000 lives last year, with up to 34,000 more deaths projected in the first half of 2023, according to a new WHO report. The country has suffered several failed rainy seasons, and the crisis is being exacerbated by rising global food prices. Meanwhile, Somalia is being starved of aid as donors prioritize Ukraine.
880: A prisoner swap between the Saudi-backed Yemen government and Iranian-supported Houthi rebels will see the exchange of 880 detainees, including 15 Saudis. The deal is part of an ongoing effort by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross to promote an end to the long-simmering conflict, which is getting an extra boost after Iran and Saudi Arabia renewed ties earlier this month.
5: North Korea says it simulated a nuclear attack on its southern neighbor this weekend with a ballistic missile launch, its fifth missile demonstration this month. The DPRK says it was protesting joint South Korea-US military exercises it sees as preparation for an invasion, but the allies say the drills were merely defensive in nature.
25: Global benevolence is up 25% compared to before the pandemic, according to a new UN report on world happiness. The report, which measures happiness across 150 countries, has found that feelings of positive social support are trending stronger worldwide. Do you agree with the findings? Tell us here.
A general view as North Korea fired two missiles from a submarine at an underwater target at an undisclosed location in North Korea March 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: North Korea goes ballistic about “puppets”, Iran pardons protesters, Lula sacks soldiers, Freddy ravages Southern Africa
2: In response to new military drills by “the US imperialists and the South Korean puppet forces,” North Korea on Monday announced it had tested two new cruise missiles, which it says it plans to fit with nuclear warheads.
22,000: Iran on Monday pardoned 22,000 people arrested for participating in the wave of protests that erupted last fall over the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman arrested for not wearing a headscarf. Is this a sign that pressure from the streets is forcing the regime to moderate or, conversely, that the Supreme Leader now feels comfortable enough to show some mercy without risking a fresh wave of protests?
100: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has ousted more than 100 military men who were serving in key government posts, replacing them with civilians. The move is part of Lula’s efforts — in the wake of the Jan. 8 riots — to establish firmer control over the armed forces, where there is a lot of sympathy for his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.
99: Cyclone Freddy, one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the southern hemisphere, continues to cut a path of destruction through Southern Africa, where it has so far killed more than 99 people in Malawi and Mozambique.Firefighters at the site of a Russian missile attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: G7 stands up to Putin, Israel and Lebanon reach maritime deal, South Korea touts missile shield
The war grinds on
Following another day of sound and fury as Russia fired more missiles into Ukrainian cities on Tuesday, G7 leaders announced “undeterred and steadfast” military and financial support for Ukraine’s defense and warned Vladimir Putin’s government that any Russian use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be met with “severe consequences.” Ukrainian air defenses shot down some of Russia’s missiles on Tuesday, but Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky told G7 leaders that more and better systems were an urgent priority. On Wednesday, Putin is expected to meet with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at a security conference in Kazakhstan, and the Kremlin spokesman told reporters the two leaders might discuss the possibility of peace talks. So, in a week of dramatic images from Ukraine, what has really changed? Ukraine has proven it still has partisans inside Crimea that can inflict real damage on important Russian infrastructure. Putin has demonstrated that he’s willing to satisfy the demands of Russian nationalists to punish Ukrainian civilians, though he says the next steps will continue to be incremental. Russia’s dwindling stockpile of precision-guided missiles, which Western export controls will make hard to replace, dwindled further. And despite pleas for peace from foreign governments, neither Russia nor Ukraine has signaled any credible basis for compromise.
Lebanon-Israel deal is finally underwater
The two countries have reached a deal that ends decades of disagreement over where exactly their maritime border lies. The underlying issue, as it were, is the presence of vast untapped natural gas fields in the area. Those could be an economic and geopolitical boon for both sides, but particularly for Lebanon, which has endured years of financial crises and power shortages. Ambiguity over the border between the two countries, whose history of conflict dates back to the late 1970s, had hobbled major energy investments in the area until now. As recently as July, Israel shot down several Hezbollah drones that were flying over the area. Under the US-brokered agreement, Israel will maintain full control over one of the large gas fields in the area, while another will be split, but with Lebanon in charge of granting exploitation rights.
What We're Ignoring: South Korea's missile defense bravado
South Korea's military says it can detect the various types of missiles that North Korea has been on a rampage to test since the beginning of the year. But experts warn that even the US-developed THAAD missile defense system (which China doesn’t like one bit) might not be enough to stop some of Kim Jong Un's newest toys, including a new short-range nuclear-capable ballistic rocket and especially what Pyongyang claims is a hypersonic missile. What's more, if Kim were to attack, he'd do so by firing so many projectiles at the South that it wouldn't matter if a lot get intercepted because just a few of them could turn Seoul and other cities into a sea of flames. The North Koreans also have nuclear weapons, which would be almost impossible to shoot down if launched from such a short distance. We get that the South Koreans want to assure the people that they are prepared for an attack from their hostile neighbor, but claiming you've got the goods to repel a barrage of North Korean missiles will likely only make Kim want to beef up his arsenal even more.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during an interview with Reuters in Kyiv.
What We're Watching: Ukraine won't negotiate, AMLO busted spying, North Korean missile diplomacy
Ukraine on offense
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree on Tuesday asserting that all the lands that Russia’s Vladimir Putin claimed to annex last week — and Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014 — remain part of Ukraine. Zelensky and his generals appear to believe that Ukraine is winning the war with Russia, and they have battlefield advances to back up their case. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based military think tank, has reported that Ukraine has made “substantial gains” on both the eastern and southern fronts over the past few days and that the units they’re defeating are “some of Russia’s most elite forces.” No wonder Zelensky and many others would swat away suggestions from billionaire eccentric Elon Musk that Ukraine might trade land for peace. Russia has acknowledged recent losses, and blame continues to land on the country’s military brass. It’s not clear how far Ukraine can extend its current gains, but the recapture of Crimea, in particular, will be even more difficult than the more immediate tasks ahead for Ukrainian forces. But for now, Ukraine has pushed the Russian military, and the Kremlin, onto its heels.
Mexico’s AMLO caught riding a winged horse
A new report says the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO, has been snooping on journalists using the fearsome Pegasus spyware. Researchers at the Canada-based watchdog Citizen Lab and the Mexican digital privacy advocacy group R3D say the program was installed on the phones of at least three Mexican human rights investigators between 2019 and 2021. The revelation is particularly damning for AMLO, who promised after taking office in 2018 that he’d discontinue the use of Pegasus following revelations that his predecessor had used it against journalists. As recently as last year, AMLO said his government had cut all ties with NSO, the Israel-based company that makes Pegasus, which is typically sold only to governments or law enforcement agencies. According to Human Rights Watch, Mexico remains one of the most dangerous places on earth for journalists and human rights defenders.
North Korea wants attention
Kim Jong Un doesn't like to be ignored. To get attention — particularly from the US and South Korea — his usual shtick is to test ballistic missiles, which North Korea's supreme leader has been doing consistently since the beginning of the year. But he hasn’t gotten much of a rise out of Washington or Seoul – just the usual strongly worded statements. So on Tuesday morning, Kim decided to look elsewhere, firing off a rocket that arced directly over Japan before plunging into the Pacific Ocean. By launching their first missile test over Japan in five years, the North Koreans may hope that rattling a US ally will get Washington to come back to the negotiating table, where Pyongyang wants the Americans to lift economic sanctions without having to surrender its nuclear weapons program first. But North Korea is hardly a priority these days for US President Joe Biden, who has enough on his plate with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China bullying Taiwan, inflation soaring, and the midterms around the corner. And what about Japan? Expect the shock of the missile overflight to give fresh impetus for Tokyo to boost defense spending.
This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.