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Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and US President Joe Biden.
A US-Iran (prisoner) deal moves forward
On Monday, the Biden administration informed Congress that it had issued a waiver that will allow South Korean banks to transfer $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen by sanctions to Qatar’s Central Bank. (South Korea is one of the biggest purchasers of Iranian oil.) Qatar will then make the funds available to Iran for what the White House insists are humanitarian purposes like the purchase of food and medicine. Iran will free five detained US citizens, and Washington will release five Iranians detained in the US.
The deal is predictably controversial. The Biden team says it marks a breakthrough in US-Iran relations that could lead to important progress in other areas, including Iran’s nuclear program, and that the $6 billion comes not from US taxpayers but from Iran’s own frozen financial reserves. Republicans say President Biden is buying hostages, which rewards criminal behavior and encourages more hostage-taking.
The White House says Qatar will control and disburse the funds to ensure they are used only for the benefit of Iran’s people in accordance with US sanctions. But Iran’s President Raisi said Monday that only the Iranian government can determine what the Iranian people need, and that Iran will spend the $6 billion “wherever we need it.”
It remains unclear when the deal will be executed and the prisoners allowed to leave, but some speculate that it could be next week when both US President Joe Biden and Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi attend the UN General Assembly in New York.
Undated photo posted by Jack Teixeira\'s mother on Veterans Day Nov 11, 2021 on her Facebook page.
What We're Watching: Pentagon leaker suspect arrested, Gershkovich swap chatter, Uruguay’s free trade ambitions
And the suspected leaker is ...
On Thursday afternoon, the FBI arrested a suspect in the most damaging US intel leak in a decade, identifying him as Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. Teixeira was reportedly the leader of an online gaming chat group, where he had been allegedly sharing classified files for three years. If convicted of violating the US Espionage Act, he could spend the rest of his life behind bars. Teixeira will appear in a Boston court on Friday.
We know that the chat group was made up of mostly male twentysomethings that loved guns, racist online memes, and, of course, video games. We don’t know what motivated the leaks, what other classified material the leaker had, or whether any of the docs were divulged to a foreign intelligence agency.
Arresting a suspect, though, is just the beginning of damage control for the Pentagon and the Biden administration. Although the content of the leaks surprised few within the broader intel community, many might not have realized the extent to which the US spies on its allies.
Uncle Sam obviously would’ve preferred to have intercepted the message this scandal sends to America’s enemies: US intel is not 100% secure.
Russia is maybe considering swap for Evan Gershkovich
A top Russian diplomat suggested Thursday that Moscow could explore a prisoner swap with the US in order to release American journalist Evan Gershkovich, whom Russian authorities jailed earlier this month on espionage charges.
But first, said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the trial against Gershkovich will have to play out in full. That could take as long as a year.
What might Russia want in exchange? Hard to say. Last year, the Kremlin swapped WNBA star Brittney Griner, convicted of a drug offense while traveling in Russia, for notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout. At the time, the Kremlin also reportedly sought the release of a Russian assassin from a German prison, but that swap broke down when the Kremlin refused to also release Paul Whelan, an American currently serving an espionage sentence in Russia.
A year from now, the world, and the Ukraine war, might look very different. But expect the Kremlin to throw the book at Gershkovich to maximize their leverage ahead of any talks about his release.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in Russia’s prison system, opposition leader Alexei Navalny — currently in solitary confinement — has suffered a fresh health crisis that his spokeswoman says is another attempt to poison him.
For context, see our recent interview with Daniel Roher, director of the Oscar-winning documentary Navalny.
Uruguay’s FTA dream
Uruguay's Foreign Minister Francisco Bustillo will soon meet with Chinese officials to take steps toward establishing a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. Uruguay has wanted an FTA for three decades, and the timing might finally be right as China seeks to increase its influence in South America.
Getting an FTA with China has been a priority for Uruguay’s President Luis Lacalle Pou's administration. The meeting will come on the heels of trade talks between Brazil and China, countries that saw their two-way trade hit a record $171.5 billion in 2022. Uruguay wants in on the action.
China has deepened its trade relationships in Latin America throughout the 21st century, beating out the US as the region's largest trading partner. Beijing benefits politically from these partnerships, gaining votes at the UN and support for Chinese appointees to multinational institutions, as well as the ability to implement technology standards into regional infrastructure.
But not all of Uruguay's neighbors are comfortable with China's swelling influence in the region, or with Uruguay flying solo. Uruguay is facing resistance from other Mercosur countries that favor negotiating regional trade deals as a bloc. Paraguay, which still recognizes Taipei in lieu of the government in Beijing, is leading the pushback – a conflict that could test one of the bloc’s few rules: a restriction on making preferential agreements with third countries.
A Somali refugee girl carries her sibling in the Hagadera refugee camp near the Kenya-Somalia border, in Garissa County, Kenya, January 17, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Somalia’s deadly drought, Yemen prisoner swap, North Korean war games, a happier world?
43,000: Somalia’s longest-recorded drought claimed 43,000 lives last year, with up to 34,000 more deaths projected in the first half of 2023, according to a new WHO report. The country has suffered several failed rainy seasons, and the crisis is being exacerbated by rising global food prices. Meanwhile, Somalia is being starved of aid as donors prioritize Ukraine.
880: A prisoner swap between the Saudi-backed Yemen government and Iranian-supported Houthi rebels will see the exchange of 880 detainees, including 15 Saudis. The deal is part of an ongoing effort by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross to promote an end to the long-simmering conflict, which is getting an extra boost after Iran and Saudi Arabia renewed ties earlier this month.
5: North Korea says it simulated a nuclear attack on its southern neighbor this weekend with a ballistic missile launch, its fifth missile demonstration this month. The DPRK says it was protesting joint South Korea-US military exercises it sees as preparation for an invasion, but the allies say the drills were merely defensive in nature.
25: Global benevolence is up 25% compared to before the pandemic, according to a new UN report on world happiness. The report, which measures happiness across 150 countries, has found that feelings of positive social support are trending stronger worldwide. Do you agree with the findings? Tell us here.