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Fmr. U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on the day of his court appearance in New York after being indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. Photo taken in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., April 4, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Trump leads early, NPR & PBS quit Twitter, stopgap for Darien, global warming juices baseballs
49.3: FiveThirtyEight launched its national polling averages for the 2024 Republican presidential race this week, and Donald Trump leads the pack with 49.3% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails well behind with 26.2%, while fmr. VP Mike Pence and fmr. UN ambassador Nikki Haley are at 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Research finds that national polls done a year ahead of the election can reasonably predict the nominee.
2: NPR will stop posting on Twitter, becoming the first major outlet to ditch the bluebird since the platform began labeling news orgs that receive government funding as “state-affiliated media.” That designation is normally applied to outlets in autocratic countries that allow no editorial independence. Twitter CEO Elon Musk recently told the BBC (another “state-affiliated” media outlet) that he may change the label to “publicly funded.” PBS followed NPR's lead on Wednesday, so two major US media outlets have now said "bye-bye birdie."
88,000: The US, Panama, and Colombia are launching a two-month campaign to stem the northward flow of migrants across the perilous Darien Gap, which spans the Colombian-Panamanian border. Since January, more than 88,000 people have braved the crossing, over six times the number from the same period last year.
1: Did the Sports Almanac account for this? A recent study analyzing the past six decades of baseball and temperature data finds that thinner air from global warming accounted for 1% of home runs from 2010-2019. The number is expected to jump to 10% by 2100 – though the data is inconclusive on whether this can help the Mets.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets the crowd before a meeting of his ruling AK Party to announce the party's election manifesto ahead of the May 14 elections, in Ankara, Turkey April 11, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Erdogan’s opposition, Myanmar military’s deadly air raids, Italian coastguard’s rescue mission, Bonnie without Clyde
6: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan kicked off his reelection campaign Tuesday in a bid to defeat six opposition parties that have joined forces ahead of the May 14 poll. Erdogan, who has been in power for two decades, vowed to cut inflation – now at 50%, thought analysts say it's higher – to single digits, though his aggressive slashing of interest rates continues to baffle economists.
100: Around 100 people, including children, are thought to have been killed on Tuesday when Myanmar’s military junta launched air raids on the central town of Pazigyi in the Sagaing region, 110 kilometers (45 miles) outside of Yangon. The region was considered a hotbed of opposition after the junta staged a coup in Feb. 2021.
1,200: The Italian coastguard is trying to rescue around 1,200 migrants stranded on two overcrowded boats off the coast of Sicily. One vessel originated in Libya, while the origin of the other fishing boat – carrying 800 people – is unclear. Italian ministers declared a state of emergency Wednesday that will free up cash to deal with the uptick in migration to Italy. How are Rome and Brussels responding to the surge? Read our primer.
13,000: A 78-year-old Missouri woman named Bonnie Gooch has been arrested for bank robbery. She allegedly gave a bank teller a note last week demanding “13,000 small bills” while banging erratically on the counter. This is her third such arrest, with her first heist dating back to 1977. Bonnie’s in jail with a $25,000 bond hanging over her head, and we’re left wondering: Where’s Clyde?
Asylum-seekers board a bus after crossing into Canada from the US in Champlain, New York.
What We’re Watching: Border clampdown, Haiti’s hellish choices
Crackdown at Roxham Road
While the great and the good were celebrating the progressive partnership between Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau at a glamorous Ottawa state dinner with yellowfin tuna and Alberta beef, Mounties were shutting down the irregular border crossing at Roxham Road, south of Montreal.
This delighted Quebec Premier François Legault but came as a shock to the desperate migrants who were en route to the crossing when the news broke. The sad and difficult stories of desperate migrants — fleeing war, crime, poverty, and repression — were not shared at the dinner where Canadians feted Biden. The quid pro quo for Biden’s help was a Canadian agreement to accept 15,000 migrants from the Caribbean and Central America.
Yet, closing the irregular border crossing at Roxham Road will likely have a negligible impact. Even if the move initially slows the influx, smugglers will find other routes — which could be more perilous. In fact, eight migrants died late last week in an attempt to cross the St. Lawrence River from Canada to the US.
One striking thing about the announcement was that nobody got wind of it until the day before. The governments had reached a deal in the spring of 2022 but succeeded in keeping it quiet until the last minute, apparently out of a desire to make sure migrants didn’t make a rush for the border.
Terrible choices for Haiti
In the leadup to Biden’s visit, the US repeatedlysignaled that it would like Canada to play a leadership role in a military intervention to bring order to chaotic, hellish Haiti, both for humanitarian reasons and to slow the flow of migrants to both Canada and the US. Nobody thought Canada would send in peacekeepers.
Indeed, Trudeau did not agree to send troops, and Biden said he wasn’t disappointed, but both leaders promised to keep working on the problem.
Perhaps Brazil could return to stop the gangs from terrorizing the population, former president of the World Peace Foundation Robert Rotberg argues, after which Canadians, and especially Canadians from the Haitian diaspora, could play a central role in reconstructing a government.__________
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Mexican authorities and firefighters remove injured migrants, mostly Venezuelans, from inside the National Migration Institute (INM) building during a fire, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico March 27, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Deadly Mexican fire, ZAUKUS, terror in the Sahel, Luke Skywalker saves Ukraine
38: Migrants fearing deportation set an immigration detention center ablaze in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, killing 38 asylum-seekers and critically injuring dozens. The blaze was one of the deadliest incidents ever for Mexico's immigration system, which is accused of mistreating migrants as it struggles to accommodate the rising number of asylum-seekers arriving at the U.S-Mexico border.
4: New Zealand may become the 4th country to join the US, UK, and Australia in the AUKUS alliance – or shall we say ZAUKUS? While less concerned with the non-nuclear pillar of the alliance – the part Wellington may join – China has already signaled its opposition to AUKUS’S potential to disrupt the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
2,000: The number of terrorism victims has increased by 2,000% in the Sahel region of Africa over the past 15 years, according to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index. More than 20,000 civilians have been killed by terrorism in the region since 2007 – a concern for local governments and European leaders faced with increased migration as a result of the violence.
14 million: Luke Skywalker has joined the fight. Mark Hamill, who played Skywalker, is the new voice of Ukraine's aerial bombardment Air Alert app. The app has been downloaded over 14 million times, and now Ukrainian users will hear the Jedi Knight warn them when to find shelter – before sending them on their way (when the danger has passed) with the iconic phrase: “May the force be with you.”
Migrants wait to cross into Canada at Roxham Road, an unofficial crossing point from New York state to Quebec for asylum-seekers.
Will US-Canada border deal mean riskier future for migrants?
It had been nearly seven years since a US presidential visit to Canada when Joe Biden arrived in Ottawa last Thursday. President Donald Trump came by in 2018 for the G-7 summit, but it’s not the same as a dedicated stop.
As these things usually go, Biden’s visit was cast as part politics, part policy.
Would it help Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, lower in the polls than he’d prefer and surely thinking about an election that is due by Oct. 2025 but could arrive sooner? Would it help Biden, who comes from a country where presidential elections run 24/7/365? Would anything meaningful come from all the banners and speeches and flags and handshakes?
On the eve of Biden’s arrival, news started to leak about a border deal — an agreement that was announced on Friday. The amendment to the Safe Third Country Agreement will see Canada officially accept 15,000 asylum-seekers from the Western hemisphere under a new refugee program while gaining the right to send back migrants who attempt to enter the country through unofficial crossings within 14 days of intercepting them.
More details are to come, including who the 15,000 will be, where they will be drawn from and how they will enter Canada. There is also more to come on precisely how the 14-day interception period will work, although those who cross irregularly and are not apprehended within that window may apply for asylum and have their case heard by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada.
New deal, a long time coming, closes loophole
For years, the two sides have wrangled over irregular crossings, which were not covered in the STCA back in 2002-2004 for reasons that aren’t exactly clear. This “loophole” made asylum-seekers the responsibility of whichever country they crossed into through unofficial points of entry, a challenge that the U.S. didn’t mind shifting onto their northern neighbor as many claimants crossed into Canada across its border.
In 2022, Canada saw nearly 40,000 people arrive at these unofficial border spots, asylum-seekers who, had they crossed at official points of entry, would have been turned around and sent back to the United States under the terms of the agreement.
But as the issue became more of a problem for the United States – over 100,000 migrant encounters from Canada were reported by US Homeland Security officials last year – the Biden administration warmed up to the idea of amending the agreement.
Migrants now face even more risks
The new Trudeau-Biden agreement took effect immediately. No notice. No grace period. As Verity Stevenson reported for CBC, migrants were stunned and heartbroken.
Migration advocates and experts warn the amendment will drive asylum-seekers underground, which may lead to increased deaths. Moreover, it may not solve the crisis at the border, which is a significant but small part of a much deeper and growing catastrophe worldwide: The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that more than 117 million people will be displaced in 2023. What does that conclusion say about the deal?
Christina Clark-Kazak, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa and migration expert, says the approach is unproven. Indeed, she says the deal is “part of a trend of rich countries ensuring that asylum-seekers never get to their borders, so they never have to deal with them.” Instead, governments prefer to pick and choose their claimants from a distance.
Whether the deal is good policy will be determined by outcomes, but the forecast is a bit grim: People are still going to come, and their journey will become riskier.
A mix of public policy and politics
The whole thing is political — and politics. The Roxham Road crossing between New York state and Quebec has seen the lion’s share of irregular crossings. Quebec Premier François Legault said he was “happy” with the deal and called it a “very good victory,” citing his province’s inability to process and settle claimants who entered at Roxham.
The STCA amendment is a political win for Trudeau, at least for now. It’s particularly important for what it may do for his party’s fortunes in Quebec, where the future of the Liberal government will be determined.
Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, says there’s a sound political logic to the deal. Canada will be alleviating some of the pressure on the U.S. border with its acceptance of 15,000 asylum-seekers while closing unofficial crossings, which may play well for the Liberals and the Democrats with their voters. As noted, there will also be fewer migrants coming into the United States through Canada after years of increased north-south crossings.
“We both get things that will help our current leaders with elections,” Sands says. This is a critical point to understand the machinations of the deal, which could serve as a model for the US-Mexico border, too — a much bigger challenge for Biden and U.S. policymakers. Given that, this deal could be “a reasonable plan that buys Biden time and takes the pressure off,” he adds.
Moreover, Biden may be thinking that Trudeau is his best bet for a workable deal, Sands notes, as there’s no guarantee the Liberal prime minister will still be the country’s head of government in a few years. For the Canadian side, Trudeau might be thinking the same thing, staring down a possible DeSantis or Trump redux administration.
Do as we say, not as we do?
Whatever the case, Clark-Kazak warns that the change to the STCA may further undermine Canadian, and by implication US, standing abroad. “We can’t go to a country like Pakistan and say, ‘You must continue to accept hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Afghans because you have a moral obligation to do so’ and in the meantime, we’re closing our borders,” she says.
The border deal is the marquee story of Biden’s visit to Canada. The STCA amendment may be good politics. But it may backfire. Whether it’s good policy will be determined in the months and years to come. And the devil will be in the details. In the meantime, there are plenty of reasons for concern despite two days of toasts and pats on the back.
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U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau during a bilateral meeting at the North American Leaders' Summit in Mexico City, Mexico, January 10, 2023.
Biden-Trudeau talks focus on immigration and defense
Amid the pomp and pageantry accompanying President Joe Biden’s first official visit to Canada, he and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau are looking to make some deals.
Even before Biden’s arrival late Thursday, news broke that the two countries had reached an agreement on irregular migration flows across the US-Canada border, a sticking point for both governments. An influx of asylum-seekers across the Roxham Road crossing into Quebec has dogged relations, with nearly 40,000 migrants crossing in 2022 alone.
Trudeau has been asking the US to renegotiate the Safe Third Country Agreement, which requires asylum-seekers who cross select border points to be sent back to the country where they first entered. Why? Because it encourages migrants to enter at irregular crossings like Roxham Road, and once they’re in Canada they can legally make asylum claims.
The precise details of the new migration deal are still under wraps, but Canada has reportedly agreed to take in 15,000 migrants from the Western Hemisphere through official channels. The agreement also would reportedly allow both countries to turn away asylum-seekers who cross the border without authorization.
The Biden-Trudeau talks on Friday are also expected to turn to defense. Last month’s Chinese spy balloon fiasco has led to increased pressure on both leaders to ramp up security. North Korean missile tests and Russian advances in missile technology have added more urgency to North American defense.
A new Maru Public/GZERO poll finds that the vast majority of Americans and Canadians (93% and 91%, respectively) want the two countries to boost security efforts, and most Canadians favor either a joint missile-defense system or having US missiles on Canadian soil.
With both Canada and the US being behind on the modernization of the North American Aerospace Defense Command – much of its radar systems are from the 1980s – Friday’s discussions are likely to touch on NORAD investment.
Biden is expected to push Trudeau on military spending – like many NATO members, Canada lags behind its defense spending target of 2% GDP. Canadian NORAD officials complain that current military capabilities are sluggish. Last year, Trudeau’s government pledged $4.9 billion to upgrade NORAD, but Americans are skeptical about the speed at which Canada can deliver.
The war in Ukraine is also putting Arctic defense back on the map. The Maru/GZERO poll showed that majorities in both the US and Canada support a joint military presence in the Arctic. Receding ice in the region has freed up shipping lanes, portending new access to lucrative resources like oil and rare-earth minerals. The region’s security would take on even more geopolitical importance should Finland and Sweden join NATO, possibly making it a new frontline pitting Russia against the West.
There's no shortage of thorny issues for Biden and Trudeau to tackle, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine. For more on the presidential visit, be sure to join us on Twitter Friday at 12pm ET. We’ll be talking with Forbes' Diane Brady, Eurasia Group's Gerald Butts, and GZERO's Evan Solomon, breaking down what Biden and Trudeau need to accomplish during their meeting. Set a reminder here.
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A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.
Photo composite of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping
What We’re Watching: China’s budding diplomacy, Biden’s border control, Russia’s big plans
What’s next for Russia & China?
Russia and China broadcast their friendship to the world on Wednesday as the West freaked out about the possibility of Beijing turning to arm Moscow’s troops in Ukraine. After meeting Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin said that strong Russia-China ties are “important for stabilizing the international situation.” (A tad rich coming from the guy who upended geopolitics by invading Ukraine a year ago.) Putin also confirmed that Xi Jinping would visit Moscow for a summit in the coming months. Wang, for his part, clarified that while their famous partnership “without limits” is not directed against any other nation, it certainly should not be subject to external pressure. He said both countries support “multipolarity and democratization of international relations” – in other words, not a US-led liberal international order. Still, no matter what Western governments say, the Chinese are not so willing to break ties with the US and its allies, mainly because Beijing's trade relations are too important. Meanwhile, we wonder whether the current status of the Russia-China relationship — friends with benefits but complicated — will blossom into a marriage (of convenience) or end in a bad breakup. What we know for sure is that China is getting more involved in the Ukraine conflict generally. Learn more here.
Biden’s tough new move on immigration
The Biden administration this week unveiled a new hardline immigration plan that will likely come into effect after the current pandemic-era immigration policy, known as Title 42, lapses on May 11. It would then stay in place for two years. Under the measure, first revealed last month, asylum-seekers who cross the US southern border illegally or who fail to apply for asylum in the first country they cross through will be banned from applying for asylum in America. This comes after Biden’s team last month introduced a new policy, whereby migrants from Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, in addition to Venezuela, would be eligible for “parole” – meaning temporary two-year work visas – only if they apply for asylum from outside the US and if they have a US sponsor. The new plan mirrors a similar policy introduced by former President Donald Trump that was ultimately blocked by the courts. Rights groups, citing a potential threat to humanitarian protections, say they will seek legal action again. Biden has been struggling to contain an uptick in migrants arriving at the southern border in recent months – and the subsequent political backlash. But this plan will infuriate the left flank of the Democratic Party whose support Biden needs as the 2024 presidential race gets underway.