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Toppling Maduro would be "the easy part" says former Ambassador
Former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story warns that removing Maduro would be the easy part—what comes next is the real challenge.
In this clip from Ian Bremmer’s interview with former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story, the two discuss the risks and realities of a possible regime change in Caracas. While the Maduro government is increasingly isolated and unpopular, Story cautions that the collapse of the regime would only be the beginning of a much larger crisis.
“For 25 years, the institutions in that country have been systematically destroyed,” Story says, adding that Venezuela has become a failed state teeming with criminal organizations like the ELN, Hezbollah, and the Tren de Aragua. Any transitional government, he argues, would have to rely on a military that has long been complicit in repression and corruption. “The easy part would be getting rid of Maduro,” Story says. “The hard work happens after that.”
Drawing on lessons from past US interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Haiti, Story urges careful planning and warns against dismantling institutions too quickly. If the US plays a role in removing Maduro, he says, it must also take responsibility for what comes next: “You break it, you fix it.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- Regime change in America’s backyard? ›
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- Is the US about to invade Venezuela? ›
- Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he? ›
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Could the US really invade Venezuela?
If the US does intervene in Venezuela, former US Ambassador James Story explains why the real battle begins after boots hit the ground.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Ambassador James Story, former US envoy to Venezuela, to examine one of the most urgent questions in US‑Latin America policy: could Washington go to war with Caracas? With US naval assets and aircraft carriers now stationed off the Venezuelan coast and President Trump declining to rule out deploying troops, Story says regime change is only the beginning.
“The easy part would be getting rid of Maduro,” Story says. “The hard work happens after that.” With lawlessness, paramilitary control, narco‑trafficking networks and a collapsed economy, Venezuela is broken. Story warns: “How do you trust any part of a government whose sole purpose was keeping a criminal organization functioning?”
Even if opposition leaders like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González take power, how do you rebuild faith in a government that, for decades, served only to protect a criminal enterprise? “You’re going to need the military,” Story says, “but it’s the same military that’s been keeping Maduro in power.”
The bigger question? If the US plays a role in removing Maduro, who takes the lead on what comes next—and how much are Americans really willing to take on?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- Regime change in America’s backyard? ›
- Is Trump aiming for regime change in Venezuela? ›
- Can Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado unseat Nicolás Maduro? ›
- Is the US about to invade Venezuela? ›
- Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he? ›
- Trump’s risky Venezuela strategy, explained ›
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, here in September as the Minister of Armed Forces arriving at the Elysee presidential Palace, has resigned.
What We’re Watching: France’s prime minister resigns, Maduro makes a military display, government shutdown persists
Another prime minister bites the dust in France
France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just 26 days after taking office — and a day after announcing his cabinet. He blamed France’s fractured parliament for “behaving as if they had an absolute majority” and refusing to compromise. The decision now falls to President Emmanuel Macron, who can appoint a fifth prime minister, call new parliamentary elections, or resign — something he’s vowed not to do before 2027. But both remaining options are risky: a new prime minister could face another quick collapse, while fresh elections could further boost Marine Le Pen’s far-right party.
Maduro’s militia push falls flat
Tanks rolled through Caracas for a military parade as Venezuela’s government tried to project strength after the US attacked another boat off its coast on Friday, but turnout was sparse. President Nicolás Maduro has urged citizens to join militias to defend against what he calls a looming US invasion, yet many recruits say they were pressured to enlist and won’t fight if it comes to it. The US has deployed its largest Caribbean naval force in decades, officially to combat drug trafficking, though the scale suggests that the Trump administration may really be interested in regime change. With low enthusiasm at home and external pressure increasing, Maduro faces fresh questions about the loyalty of his forces and the stability of his rule.
Partisan gridlock keeps US government closed
The federal government shutdown is entering its second week with no resolution in sight. Both parties are blaming each other as the Senate remains deadlocked and the House stays home. Donald Trump has so far preferred taunting Democrats online over negotiating, while his advisers threaten potential federal layoffs. The key sticking point is healthcare: Democrats want to extend healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which are set to expire soon. Republicans say they’ll only discuss that after reopening the government. The shutdown’s early effects have been limited, but the pain will grow as federal workers miss paychecks and public pressure builds for a deal.
US strike on vessel from Venezuela
Is the US trying to topple Venezuela's leader?
In this episode of ask ian, Ian Bremmer breaks down the recent US military strike on a vessel leaving Venezuela and what it signals for the Trump administration’s broader strategy.
“The United States has now engaged in an initial strike claiming a drug enforcement mission,” Ian explains. But the scale of the operation tells another story: “Seven US warships, a nuclear submarine, over 2,000 Marines, and several spy planes…this is clearly not just a drug interdiction.”
Ian suggests the move could be the start of a blockade or even strikes on gangs and terrorist groups inside Venezuela. While some US officials have long pushed for Nicolás Maduro’s removal, he cautions against assuming regime change. Ian notes, “I’d be very surprised to see boots on the ground.”
The Venezuela policy, Ian remarks, stands in stark contrast to Trump’s approach in Israel, where the US government continues to provide funding and political support, an exception to his ‘America First’ stance.
US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., attend a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on August 26, 2025.
Washington’s double game in Venezuela: Warships, oil tankers, and uncertain outcomes
– By Tony Frangie Mawad
The turquoise Caribbean waters off Venezuela now carry two rival fleets under the same flag. One consists of US destroyers, an amphibious squadron and a nuclear submarine deployed as part of US President Donald Trump’s newest offensive against Latin American drug cartels. The other is Chevron oil tankers loading Venezuelan crude and heading north, supplying US refineries.
This duality is indicative of the Trump administration’s internal conflict over how to deal with Venezuela. While figures like Special Envoy Richard Grenell and MAGA influencer Laura Loomer dismiss “regime change” rhetoric and prioritize access to Venezuela’s oil reserves – the world’s largest – Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other Florida Republicans push for sanction-centered “maximum pressure” and alignment with opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.
The strain comes after the contested July 28, 2024, presidential elections in Venezuela, when – despite overwhelming evidence of an opposition landslide victory – the Maduro government deepened repression and clung to power despite its unpopularity. The opposition, with no institutional leverage and facing a security apparatus loyal to the country’s ruling socialists, pinned its hopes on external pressure. Opposition leader Machado therefore welcomed Trump’s naval deployment, praising “the firm and brave decision to dismantle the criminal enterprise that has seized Venezuela.” She and Rubio link President Nicolás Maduro not only to alleged drug trafficking group, “Cartel of the Suns,” but also to the transnational criminal gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), portraying the Venezuelan regime as the “criminal hub” of a hemispheric syndicate. Their campaign has borne fruit: Trump formally designated the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization, accusing Maduro of leading it, and raised the bounty for his capture to $50 million – twice the figure once set for Osama bin Laden.
These actions are more defensible if Venezuela is considered a narco-state. Transparencia Venezuela, Transparency’s local branch now in exile, estimates illicit economies – including cocaine, gold smuggling, and port kickbacks – may amount to close to 16% of national GDP. Almost 25% of the world’s cocaine, routed through Colombia, now passes through Venezuela, according to the DEA and other agencies. These numbers support the hard-liners in the US administration. Yet experts caution against taking the US designation of the “Cartel of the Suns” literally. Far from a rigid hierarchy, it is more an umbrella term for informal trafficking networks facilitated by corrupt officials and state institutions in the vacuum left by Venezuela’s weakened state control. Similarly, evidence linking TdA to the Maduro government is scarce.
For now, Washington is keeping its options open. The naval and marine presence – over 4,000 troops, amphibious carriers, reconnaissance aircraft, and three destroyers – is tailored less to invasion than to interception. “Suspicious vessels may be detained and boarded on the high seas, with or without flag consent. This exerts pressure, but it doesn't overthrow anyone,” says Víctor M. Mijares, a Venezuelan geopolitical expert.
Nobody knows what happens next. The presence of precision-strike platforms revives fears of a surgical operation, akin to US and Israeli strikes against Iran, a close ally of Venezuela’s regime. In anticipation, Maduro has banned non-state sale and use of drones. He has also reacted with fiery anti-imperialist rhetoric, calling for a nationwide mobilization that supposedly enlists firefighters, communal councils, and 4.5 million militia members – though local analysts note that figure is inflated, consisting largely of pensioners and state clients. On Monday, perhaps as a show of strength and to reinforce defensive border security, Venezuela also announced the deployment of 15,000 troops – allegedly as part of a domestic anti-drugs operation – to the border with Colombia, a key US regional security partner. Venezuela is also deploying ships to the northern part of the country’s territorial waters, likely facing the US fleet.
Despite the military deployments, one key factor supports a continuation of the status quo: economics. US sanctions notwithstanding, Chevron is able to export oil thanks to the renewal of their license to operate. While the opposition had urged Washington to revoke the license, calling instead for the “financial asphyxia” of the regime, tankers have resumed crude exports to the United States. The trade is estimated to generate roughly $4 billion a year, and accounts for the bulk of Venezuela's oil production.
In the medium term, it is most likely that tensions will gradually escalate. If it comes to a head and Maduro is replaced in a haphazard way, without coordination between the democratic opposition and state actors, the result may not be a democratic transition but a power vacuum quickly filled by hardliners or even a military junta. At least for now, in a country increasingly accustomed to secrets and conspiracies, the full picture remains unclear.
Tony is a Venezuelan journalist and political scientist based in Caracas. He has written for several international outlets, runs a bilingual newsletter on his country called Venezuela Weekly, and is launching Ecosistema, a digital outlet on Venezuelan business, tech, and society.
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado says Maduro's days are numbered
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer is joined by the most prominent opposition leader in Venezuela, María Corina Machado. Machado has a long political history as a center-right opposition figure in Venezuela, but she became the leader of that opposition during the presidential election last summer. That’s when the regime-friendly electoral council declared Nicolás Maduro the winner, despite widespread allegations of fraud and international condemnation from the US and Europe. But this is more than just a Venezuela story, it’s an American one, too. The Biden era saw an unprecedented influx of Venezuelan migrants to sanctuary cities. Under President Trump’s administration so far, thousands of Venezuelans have been arrested, and many have already been deported. Some of them, purported gang members, were shipped off to a black hole of a prison in El Salvador. And in recent weeks, Trump has canceled Venezuelan oil licenses and threatened steep sanctions and tariffs on Maduro’s regime.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
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Born and trained as an engineer, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has become a powerful symbol of resistance. Once a fringe opposition politician who shocked the nation by interrupting Hugo Chavez, she now leads the charge against the dictatorial regime of his successor, Nicolás Maduro. Although she has gone into hiding, she has not kept quiet. Through remote interviews and media outreach, she's rallied support for the opposition and praised right-leaning Latin American leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. She defended the Trump administration’s recent move to cancel oil and gas licenses that had allowed energy companies to operate in Venezuela.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
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