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Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff visit a watch party after Harris participated in a presidential debate with Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 10, 2024.
Harris won the debate, but will it matter on Election Day?
The presidential debate marks the unofficial point of the race when the majority of Americans start paying attention. As the dust begins to settle from Tuesday night’s showdown, early polls show Kamala Harris winning the debate 63% to 37%, according to a CNN poll, while YouGov’s poll has her winning 54% to 31% among registered voters who watched at least some of the debate, with 14% unsure.
Both Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton beat Donald Trump by even larger margins in 2020 and 2016, but only one of them went on to beat him in the electoral college on Election Day. So the question remains: Will the debate matter?
This is “the major unknown,” says Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith. “I tend to think it won’t matter very much.”
“There are very few ‘gettable’ voters left, and polling has been remarkably stable in the race so far, with very little movement since Harris’ post-nomination ascendancy ended,” he explains.
Early polls also show that Harris didn’t change minds on the big issues. Despite her win, debate watchers still preferred Trump by 20 points on the economy and 23 points on immigration.
The real determining factor in a race this tight will be turnout. Harris may have won a few more supporters with a shining debate performance, but she needs to convince them to show up on Election Day. Meanwhile, Trump’s camp will be mobilized by the motivation to vote Democrats out of the Oval Office. With early voting kicking off next week in key states like Pennsylvania, we will be watching which candidate can drive more of their voters to the polls.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris take part in a presidential debate hosted by ABC in Philadelphia, Penn., on Sept. 10, 2024, in a combination of photographs.
Trump takes Harris’ bait in heated presidential debate
Vice President Kamala Harris had two opponents in Tuesday night’s highly anticipated presidential debate: former President Donald Trump and high expectations. She performed well against both.
Harris successfully put Trump on the defensive throughout much of the debate, ripping into him on issues ranging from abortion and his criminal record to Jan. 6 and his refusal to accept the 2020 election results.
“Trump was fired by 81 million people," Harris said in reference to 2020. “Clearly, he is having a very difficult time processing that.”
Meanwhile, Trump used the debate to play his greatest hits, offering doom and gloom messaging about immigration, crime, and the “radical left.” The former president, for example, said that Harris wanted to see “transgender operations on illegal aliens that are in prison.” Trump also veered into the bizarre and conspiratorial, pushing baseless assertions about immigrants eating pets.
Harris seemed to anticipate this approach and laid into Trump for recycling talking points he’s leaned on for years. “It is important that we move forward – that we turn the page on this same old tired rhetoric,” Harris said.
She explained how military leaders had described Trump to her as a “disgrace.” And when Trump attacked President Joe Biden, Harris fired back, saying, “You're not running against Joe Biden. You are running against me.”
Throughout the debate, Trump struggled to stay on topic and rarely answered questions directly. When asked about the war in Gaza, he focused instead on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – saying it never would’ve happened under his watch (Please note: There was also an ongoing war in eastern Ukraine involving Kremlin-backed rebels throughout his presidency).
Harris also got Trump to veer away from talking about immigration, an issue that’s been the former president’s bread and butter since his 2016 campaign, by suggesting that people leave his rallies early out of boredom. Trump took the bait, going on to boast that he has the “biggest” and “most incredible” rallies in response to a question about his role in killing a bipartisan bill to strengthen border security.
Trump repeatedly came off as unprepared. When asked about health care, he openly admitted he didn’t have a plan, other than wanting to replace Obamacare. “We are looking at different plans,” Trump said. “I have concepts of a plan.”
Though some of Harris’s responses came across as scripted, she largely stuck to one key message throughout the night — portraying herself as a new generation of leadership who would turn the page on a historically divisive era in US politics. That said, the debate often lacked specifics on policy — as both candidates traded barbs and sought to portray the other as a danger to the US. “You believe in things that the American people don't believe in,” Trump said to Harris in his closing remarks, decrying her as “the worst vice president in the history of our country.”
After the debate, Trump allies appeared unimpressed by what they saw from him — with Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham describing the night as a "missed opportunity" for the former president.
Whether Harris won over any new voters remains to be seen, but her campaign is clearly feeling energized by the vice president’s performance and has already signaled a desire to participate in a second debate with Trump. In comments to reporters in the spin room on the prospect of another debate, Trump said, “We’ll look at it, but they want a second debate because they lost.”
Ian Bremmersays that Harris won the debate. And Taylor Swift, who endorsed Harris after the debate, seemingly concurs with this assessment. Do you agree? We’d love to hear from you here.
Also, please join our X Space today on the debate. We’ll start at 11 a.m. EST. Set a reminder or join here.
Harris wins debate
And it's not that Trump didn't have points to make, but he largely didn't make them. The only significant time that I saw a misstep that Trump was able to hit against Kamala was when she was complaining about his tariffs against China and more broadly. And, of course, these were policies that Trump put in place, which Biden stuck with and claims he's succeeded in China, and they were Trump policies and said, well, if you want to change them, why didn't you? And through the debate, his message was, well, if there are all these great things you wanted to do, you've been vice president, why haven't you done them over the last 3.5 years? But on balance, what Trump did was lose message, lose discipline, and attack Kamala Harris in ways that seemed incoherent and all over the map from the opening question when he was asked about the economy and couldn't stay on target on the economy instead immediately started talking about immigration when he threw in this nonsensical and false claim that immigrants, Haitian immigrants in Ohio are eating household pets. When he was asked about foreign policy and said I'm loved around the world and used Hungary's Viktor Orban as his respected character witness on and on, he seemed defensive and angry and not on message and not disciplined and was rattled by the fact that Kamala Harris was landing punches against him.
I don't think she was fantastic, but she was good. And good is a significant accomplishment given the fact that coming into this, she was not taking interviews, one exception over the last six weeks with the media. Certainly, nothing that was confrontational or hostile, that she's frequently spoken in abstractions and generalities, and not shown policy chops on a range of issues with depth and detail, that she frequently laughs a lot, you know, sort of out of timing and in ways that seems not to make sense, and out of defensiveness. None of that happened this evening. Today, Harris was responding coherently, not always with every fact at her fingertips, but certainly seemed to be a normal politician with a message to put across. Was particularly strong on issues like abortion, where she has that capacity, and on pieces of economic policy. Also, in being able to land blows against Trump and his unfitness, inconsistency, lack of support for democracy, other related issues.
Now, ABC is going to come into the crosshairs here because certainly the questions that they asked, and the follow-ups, were more hostile towards Trump than they were towards Harris. Would you say that they were biased against Trump? Well, I would say that they were more focused on fact-finding, and Trump, more frequently than Harris and more frequently than any politician at that level, is making up his own facts. And they were doing a fair amount of fact-checking in real time. I would say there was a little bit of bias in the sense that there were a couple of places they could have been fact-checking Kamala Harris, and they didn't. And I think they could have done a better job of that. I also think that they gave Trump much more time to follow up when he wanted to, and they typically cut off Harris at the end of her time. You could say that that's bias in favor of Trump, except it didn't help Trump. It actually hurt Trump because the longer he was speaking, the more rattled and unhinged he appeared to be.
So, I'd certainly say if you were looking at this debate, in terms of who you thought actually came across as a winner, and you had uncertainty as a potential voter, in the way that Biden/Trump would have been 95%, Trump, Harris/Trump would be 80% Harris. Now, if you're a partisan on the Harris or Trump side, it didn't matter what was going to happen, and you're going to say that your side won, no matter what. If you're trying to defend Trump tomorrow on air, you're going to say, “This was three-on-one. This was an ABC dogpile. They're the fake news. They should be shut down.” And I suspect Trump will be saying that, both directly and with his proxies tomorrow.
But the fact is, he did not perform, and he is a 78-year-old man. He has not been particularly on point or on message in lots of his rallies recently, if you've watched them, or at the Economics Club in New York last week, if you watch that speech, he has vulnerabilities. And Kamala Harris, who had not been tested at this level before, this is, you know, a presidential debate, she's the nominee., it's the biggest spot of her life, and she gave the best performance of her vice presidency, in my view. Was she, you know, Obama in terms of masterful and soaring rhetoric? No. was she Reagan? Same, no. But was she capable of sounding presidential, sounding like a leader, and thumping Trump pretty hard? Absolutely, yes. I think this is an incredibly tight race. It's essentially a coin flip. I think this will probably give Harris a little bit more momentum that had tapped out after the convention. But it's probably not going to move her 2 or 3 points. It might move her half a point or a point.
It's very, very tight. And I still think this election is very much open over the next couple months. But Harris did herself significant favors, Trump did himself none, over the last couple of hours, and that's the news going into tomorrow. That's my view. Best I can do. You can disagree with it, but you know, I at least try to tell you what I think is going on honestly, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Trump-Harris debate: What to expect
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What issues will dominate the Trump/Harris debate?
Well, I mean clearly the economy, migration, abortion, I mean these are the issues that are on top of everybody's agenda. I care the most about global issues, foreign policy issues, things like climate change, artificial intelligence governance, and say, the Middle East, China, and Russia. But I suspect that that gets a small amount of time and also is a very little impact to voters that has still undecided. Having said all of that, I don't think this is mostly about issues. I think this is mostly about how does Harris perform against Trump and vice versa. And keep in mind that given just how filtered people's information sources are, if one of them wins by a little bit, then both sides are going to come away saying we destroyed the other, and so will all of their supporters.
So I mean, there has to be a big mistake or a big win for anyone to break through in what's an extremely tight race here. And that's what everyone's looking for, especially because Harris hasn't been tested like this before and Trump's last few public appearances have been pretty all over the map and showing his age. So I think people looking for first major test of Harris of this sort and is Trump capable of still delivering big-time entertainment in this sort of a format? So that's where we are. Everyone will be tuned in tonight. I think a lot more than 50 million people in the United States are going to be watching. This should be a highly, highly visible and important. Only two months before the election action.
As Edmundo Gonzalez seeks asylum in Spain, what lies ahead for Venezuela and Maduro's opposition?
Well, the fact that the United States has impounded one of Maduro's planes shows just how much that policy had failed, an effort to try to use carrots to get the Venezuelan government to be willing to hold a free and fair election. That was never going to happen. Not from the Americans, not from the Colombians, not from the Brazilians. Not from the Mexicans. There was no one out there that was going to make a difference. And sadly not Venezuela's opposition either. What this means is the military still supporting the Venezuelan president, massively corrupt, completely stolen illegitimate election and he's not going anywhere. That's where we are. And if Gonzalez hadn't fled the country, he was going to get arrested. Venezuelan military and president, very happy for him to flee the country. They gave him more than enough time and indication saying, "Okay, we're coming for you. We're coming for you. Okay, now we have an arrest warrant. If you don't leave, you're going to jail." He left. And everyone, I guess, is comfortable with that outcome, but a horrible place for the Venezuelan people, millions of whom will be streaming, millions more mostly to the United States, to Colombia, to other countries.
How was Mario Draghi's report on EU competitiveness received?
Received very well because the Europeans are not spending on competitiveness and industrial policy the way the Americans are, the way the Chinese are. And that means that they're being left behind in terms of technology. They're also not spending enough on security, which means they're still super, super dependent on the United States. And Draghi is calling for the Europeans to do a lot more, but they don't have the internal leadership to make that happen, and they don't have the fiscal space, nor do they have the coordination capable, even in a strong European Union. So very welcome. Not going to get implemented. That's where we are. Love Draghi, but he ain't running the EU.
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Political mini crossword: Debate decipher
Play this week's political mini crossword to test whether you have been keeping up with the biggest issues the presidential candidates will debate tonight!
GZERO presidential debate scorecard: Rate the debate!
GZERO will try to declare a winner of Tuesday night's debate. Check out our scoring rubric. If you use it when you watch, let us know who you awarded the most points. Not feeling like keeping score? We also have bingo cards for your debate watch party here.
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Asheboro, North Carolina August 21 and U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
Muted mics, amplified impact: Harris and Trump debate for razor-thin margins
Despite the media attention showered on presidential debates, conventional wisdom has long said they have little influence on election outcomes. That was until June, when Joe Biden’s poor performance led to a mutiny in the Democratic Party. While tonight’s debate won’t turn the race on its head for a second time, it will likely be the only time Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will face each other before the vote, and it has the potential to be majorly consequential. Here’s why:
The candidates are neck and neck in the polls. A New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday found that Trump leads Harris by just one percentage point, 48% to 47% nationally. This is well within the three-percent margin of error and largely unchanged from when Harris entered the race a month ago. The poll shows that despite headlines about Harris’ momentum and Trump’s struggle to adjust to his new opponent, his campaign remains on a strong footing, and the election will inevitably be close.
“While the absolute size of any polling movement after the debate is likely to be small,” because “there are simply not many gettable voters, that movement could still be enormously consequential in an election as close as this one,” says Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith.
For perspective on how close the race is, across the national polls, Harris’ or Trump’s largest lead so far has been under four points. In the 2020 cycle, Biden had a 10-point-plus lead, and he only won by four points in the popular vote.
“The basic fact of this campaign … is that the country is incredibly evenly divided — not just in the presidential election, but also in the Senate and the House, where control of both chambers is likely to be decided by the narrowest of margins,” says Daponte-Smith. “To a quite remarkable extent, the two parties have hyper-efficiently divided the American electorate.”
Voters want more policy. The candidates have agreed to muted mics when they aren’t speaking, which could be good news for the many voters who say they want less political sparring and more policy.
According to Daponte-Smith, “there are four major issues in the election – the economy, democracy, immigration, and abortion. Trump is stronger on the economy and immigration, while Harris is stronger on democracy and abortion.” While the economy is indisputably the most important issue, the other three issues are all competing for the second spot, with border security, healthcare, energy, and climate change also high on the list.
Trump recently announced that he would have the government or insurance companies pay for IVF treatments if elected in a push to make inroads on reproductive issues. Meanwhile, Harris will try to gain ground on the economy and border security, two issues where her connection to the current presidential administration is a liability.
How will they perform? Harris has been criticized for avoiding interviews since becoming the nominee, and many voters are still forming their impression of her. But after honing her skills in the courtroom, Harris is a strong debater. She is known for being tough on opponents and delivering iconic punchlines, like when she held Biden accountable for working with senators who supported segregation or declared “I’m speaking” when Mike Pence interrupted her. Her campaign resisted muting the mics, saying the policy “fundamentally disadvantaged” Harris because it would “serve to shield Donald Trump from direct exchanges with the vice president.”
Muted or not, Trump is a formidable opponent who is difficult to prepare for. A YouGov poll released today shows that Americans see Trump as a more persuasive debater, and he is likely to use that power to convince viewers that the nation was better off under his leadership than under Biden and Harris.
Harris will be challenged with introducing herself and her policies, distancing herself from the Biden administration, and crafting a campaign narrative, all while attacking her opponent, who unpredictably veers between policy critiques, personal attacks, falsehoods – and even conspiracy theories.
Tune in tonight at 9 p.m. ET for the presidential debate hosted by ABC News. Check out our scoring rubric here. Not feeling like keeping score? We also have bingo cards for your debate watch party here.
Senator Mark Kelly on President Biden's future in the 2024 race and fitness for office
Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill are falling in line behind President Biden, despite mounting calls from voters and even some Congressional Democrats to step aside in the US presidential race after his disastrous debate performance last month. With the stakes of the 2024 elections so high, Democrats are framing the race as a choice between stability and sensible governance in a potential second Biden administration versus chaos and threats to democracy if Trump were reelected.
Ian Bremmer sat down with Sen. Mark Kelly for an upcoming episode of GZERO World and asked about the future of President Biden's candidacy and whether he's confident Biden has the stamina and ability to lead the country for another four years. Kelly, who was elected the same year as Biden and Kamala Harris, says the administration's accomplishments speak for themselves and the president has "made it clear he's going all the way to November."
"My expectation is we're going to elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. To go back to the Donald Trump administration would be a huge mistake," Kelly insisted. "When you consider how destructive Trump would be to this country, I think it's an easy choice for every American voter to make."
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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