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Senator Mark Kelly on President Biden's future in the 2024 race and fitness for office
Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill are falling in line behind President Biden, despite mounting calls from voters and even some Congressional Democrats to step aside in the US presidential race after his disastrous debate performance last month. With the stakes of the 2024 elections so high, Democrats are framing the race as a choice between stability and sensible governance in a potential second Biden administration versus chaos and threats to democracy if Trump were reelected.
Ian Bremmer sat down with Sen. Mark Kelly for an upcoming episode of GZERO World and asked about the future of President Biden's candidacy and whether he's confident Biden has the stamina and ability to lead the country for another four years. Kelly, who was elected the same year as Biden and Kamala Harris, says the administration's accomplishments speak for themselves and the president has "made it clear he's going all the way to November."
"My expectation is we're going to elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. To go back to the Donald Trump administration would be a huge mistake," Kelly insisted. "When you consider how destructive Trump would be to this country, I think it's an easy choice for every American voter to make."
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech ›
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- Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden ›
- Stelter: It's clear the Democratic party elites are not with Biden - GZERO Media ›
- Extremists vs. moderates: The real divide in US politics - GZERO Media ›
Why replacing Biden would be a challenge
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics this week. The big question is, will the Democrats replace Joe Biden after a disastrous debate performance?
Biden was not sharp in Thursday night's debate, seeming every bit of his 81-year-old. Slurring his speech at times, rambling, making confusing comments about what he was going to do to Medicare. And Donald Trump was able to exploit that, having being high energy, his normal blustery self. Biden was unable to push back against any of the outright lies that Trump was telling and was unable to land any punches, even on Biden's best issues, which include Donald Trump's personal character. So now there's a panic setting in among Democrats, and the question is, can they replace Biden and how would they do so?
It's going to be very tough to push aside the sitting president of the United States and leader of the Democratic Party. Probably what has to happen is that Biden himself has to make the choice that he's too old and can't do the job and makes a decision sometime in the next 3 or 4 weeks that he is going to step aside as the presidential candidate the way Lyndon Johnson did in the 60s to help the Democrats avoid a contested convention. In the wake of that, he probably would have to endorse a successor.
The most likely successor is Vice President Kamala Harris, who's the first African-American and first female vice president in US history. But she's not much more popular than Biden is, which leaves him with a number of untested options of sitting governors, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, who did not perform that well in a debate against Ron DeSantis late last year and has the baggage of being a very liberal governor of the most liberal state. And Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, who has low name recognition among the public but is considered a moderate Democrat in a swing state who can appeal to moderate voters. There's probably other governors that would be in contention, like Governor Pritzker from Chicago, Jared Polis from Colorado, Andy Beshear from Kentucky.
But they also face the challenge of not being very nationally known, not having great fundraising networks, and never having done the grueling challenge of running for president of the United States. When you are under scrutiny 24 hours a day, every aspect of your background is going to be looked into. You've got to be a good retail politician, a good public speaker, and have the ability to consolidate Democrats and tap into the massive fundraising networks that are necessary to run as the president.
So not a lot of great options for Democrats right now. Former President Donald Trump remains ahead in most swing state polls and suggesting he probably should be considered the frontrunner in the race for now. But this question of the pressure that's going to be on Biden over the next several weeks is not going to go away until Biden has a very strong public appearance that makes people less worried about his age. Lots of baggage going into the August conventions for Biden and a real headwind for his campaign.
Democrat candidate, U.S. President Joe Biden, points during a presidential debate with Republican candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., June 27, 2024.
Did Biden blow it in the debate?
Americans anxiously watched the first presidential debate last night, hoping their preferred candidate could prove they have what it takes to (once again) call the White House home. But they got a particularly disappointing show from President Joe Biden, unchecked falsehoods from former President Donald Trump, and two old guys attacking each other’s golf games.
“Biden did not have a good night,” says Eurasia Group’s US director Jon Lieber. “He was sleepy, his voice was raspy, and he made several obvious and notable verbal gaffes.” While Trump was his normal blustery self, “Biden failed to land a single punch,” even when pointing out Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities.
Abortion should have been Biden’s strongest issue after Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 – which helped Democrats in the midterms later that year. But Biden stumbled in his answer and failed to take remaining time in other questions or in his closing statement to hold his opponent accountable for the increased restrictions on reproductive health.
On other hot-button issues like the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, “Biden’s command of the facts was stronger than that of Trump,” according to GZERO and Eurasia Group’s founder Ian Bremmer, “but no one is looking at the transcript. They're looking at the performance, and his performance was abysmal.”
Will Biden withdraw? Publicly, Democratic officials continue to largely rally around Biden and argue that a lackluster performance doesn’t determine the election. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said after the debate that his party “could not be more wholly unified behind Biden” and that the president should not step aside.
But privately, party insiders report that the whispers about Biden being too old have crescendoed. “Democrats are going to be freaking out for weeks now,” says Lieber. “Expect the speculation about replacing Biden at the top of the ticket to grow to a fever pitch loud enough that Biden will surely hear it – and consider it – in the Oval Office.”
But the decision to withdraw would have to come from Biden himself. Party rules make it almost impossible to replace a nominee without their consent because doing so would amount to party insiders overturning the results of primaries in which Democratic voters overwhelmingly nominated Biden. He won almost 99% of all delegates.
If Biden were to step down, the Democrats would be cast into a brokered convention, or a free-for-all scenario at the Aug. 19 convention in Chicago, where the individual candidates who threw their hat in the ring would have to campaign to try to win a majority of the 700 superdelegates. Historically, brokered conventions aren’t unprecedented, but it’s been 72 years since the last one. Since then, both parties have changed the rules for candidates to avoid this situation, primarily because a nominee in a brokered convention rarely goes on to win the general election.
Trump’s answers were littered with falsehoods, including that the Charlottesville rally of white supremacists never occurred (it did) and an accusation that Biden is a “Manchurian candidate” who is “paid by China” – a nod to accusations that Biden’s unduly influenced by China, for which there is no evidence – but the former president spoke clearly and was easier to understand. Biden, meanwhile, largely failed to hammer Trump on his recent felony convictions or his attempt to overturn the election – besides accusing Trump of having “the morals of an alley cat.”
The country, Bremmer contends, deserves better from its presidential candidates. “A country as strong as America,” he says, “should be able to run a much more effective campaign with people that we admire.”
For more analysis of the debate, check on Ian Bremmer’s QuickTake here.
Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. It is late, and we have just seen the first, maybe the last presidential debate of 2024. I was skeptical about the strategy from day one of Biden getting on stage with Trump. Biden has never been a great campaigner, doesn't have a lot of discipline, and isn't enormously entertaining. But they decided they needed to do it. And the rules benefited a normal politician. The microphones shut off, except for the person who was allowed to speak, and there was no live audience, and it was CNN. So the questions are going to be, at the very least, balance between the two. And, if there's going to be a slant, it'll be towards Biden and not towards Trump. And despite all of that, Biden got absolutely pasted.
And it's not about his speaking points per se; there were some points that he made, if you just look at the transcript, that clearly was in his favor, I would say, on balance, on the economy, his command of the facts was stronger than that of Trump. I saw that, in terms of talk of inflation and jobs. I saw that in terms of China and the trade deficit with China, that's actually narrowed as opposed to increased. Certainly, on abortion, I think that Biden would have landed more punches if you were only looking at the transcript. But no one is looking at the transcript. They're looking at the performance. And the performance, Biden was abysmal.
It wasn't just like a little bit on Trump's side. Trump looked vibrant. He actually, largely played by the rules. He sounded strong. He stuck to his time limit. And Biden looked and occasionally sounded incoherent. And the reality is that, I mean, Trump, in my view, shouldn't be running because he's unfit for being president. Biden shouldn't be running because he is too old to stand. And of the two challenges, the latter looks a lot worse on the debate stage that 50 plus percent of Americans just watched. The inbound that I've been receiving over the last two hours from people all over the world is overwhelmingly: "Is Biden now going to stand down? What is going to happen?" Because this is the worst evening, certainly of his campaign, and the level of pressure to find someone, anyone else other than Biden, to run is going to be strong.
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The hunt for the killer clip
Happy debate night as we all hunker down for the face-to-face rematch in Atlanta of the Age vs. Rage election, now just hours away.
More than anything else tonight at the presidential debate, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be hunting for the one viral video clip that will define their opponent and frame the campaign. For the first time in close to four years, they will share a stage, and millions of people across blue and red states will finally exit their bias-affirming bubbles and tune in collectively to a single program. Just that fact alone — that it’s a moment when tens of millions of people across the hyper-fractured country gather for a common, shared political reality — makes tonight critical.
The three big factors: Age, Rage, and what happens on Stage. Make no mistake, policies and issues are critical and should be the main course tonight. Immigration, inflation, taxes, foreign affairs, abortion stance, and those pesky 34 felonies … all those matter and will be the focus of the moderators' agenda, according to CNN. But since the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy faceoff through today’s hyper-accelerated, viral social media culture, the impact of presidential debates has moved from policy to personality, from ideas to image. It is all about “the clip.”
There are different kinds of clips.
The Stumble Clip: Biden is much more vulnerable here because the consensus narrative around him is that, at 81, he’s simply too old for the job. One verbal trip, a name mix-up, a fumble, or one inopportune freeze will have exponentially outsized impact. The worst stumble clip might well be when former Texas Gov. Rick Perry ran for the Republican nomination in 2011 and famously forgot which government agency he promised to cut. “It is three agencies of government that are gone when I get there," he thundered on live TV. “Commerce, education, and … umm … uh, the, uh … what’s the third one there … let’s see …” He started to fumble desperately and, pressed to name the agency by the moderator, he checked his notes for a lifeline. Only there was nothing there. Perry’s blank space went viral long before Taylor Swift’s, and he finally petered out, mumbling the politically radioactive word: “Oops.” It was over. Biden cannot have a Perry moment.
Even at his best, Biden speaks in a slow, raspy drawl, like the sludge-filled tributaries of the Lackawanna River, which cuts through his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania. Between awkward pauses, Biden often punctuates his words with sock-hop-era words like “malarkey,” which adds sepia tones to his already vintage vibe struggling to find a place in a hi-def world.
Trump will try to interrupt, even if they mute his mic, to throw Biden off, while attacking the president on the border, the Middle East, and inflation. So, more than anything else, Biden needs to look and sound alert, quick on his feet, on top of the details, and strong.
Though Trump also stumbles, makes multiple factual errors, and gets names wrong, that’s long been baked into his personality. What’s another 34 untruths or 34 stumbles next to his 34 felonies? None of it sticks. The age-related stumble is not Trump’s worry. He has to watch out for another trap: The Chaos Clip.
The Chaos Clip: Trump is the great conductor of political chaos, culminating in the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol. Even fellow Republicans thought that was the end of Trump. It wasn’t. Trump has not only recovered, he’s transformed the Jan. 6 mob into heroes and hostages, a stunning rebranding exercise and one that takes center stage at his rallies. Still, if Trump coughs up a clip about not respecting the election results, lashes out at the justice system to repudiate his 34 felony charges, says he will pull out of NATO, or threatens to drop a nuke on Iran or otherwise destabilize the world order, it could undermine his campaign.
Too much chaos fueled by his bottomless pool of rage and resentment would be deeply damaging. Biden will try to bait him here, and I wonder if he gets so bold as to call Trump a “felon” to his face. Still, Trump loves the stage, doesn’t rely on notes, and if he looks strong, overpowering, and avoids the chaos, it is all upside for him.
The Killer Clip: From Ronald Regan’s famed 1980 zinger, “There you go again” aimed at Jimmy Carter – which 44 years ago seemed nasty and today would barely register – to the 1988 uppercut Lloyd Bentsen landed in the vice presidential debate, telling Dan Quayle “Senator, You are no Jack Kennedy,” this is the sought-after, white whale of political debates. Biden came close in the last debate with his “Will you shut up man,” showing he could punch off the ropes. He will need that again – look for it on Trump’s convictions, abortion, and foreign policy. But no one delivers nastier or more quotable quips than Trump. If he senses Biden is stumbling, he could deliver a killer clip from which Biden might not recover.
So as they hunt for the clip of the night – and as their staff prep as much for the post-debate social media moments as the debate itself – Biden needs to overcome age, Trump needs to contain rage, and both need to avoid a big gaffe on stage.
Can’t wait for 9 p.m. EDT.
We have lots of coverage of the debate for you. Ian Bremmer will be watching, and we will get a video of his insights into a Quick Take video tonight right after the debate, so check our site and social platforms for that. On Friday at 7 a.m., look for GZERO Daily, which will be filled with analysis. At 10 a.m. EDT Friday, I’ll be hosting a live X space with our team and special guests to go over the hits, misses, and the impact of the debate. Join in and it will get spicy.
John Lieber will also have his take on what’s next in our US election video series on Friday. And, oh yes, please play along with our debate bingo, which is a great way to engage with things tonight.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in their first 2020 presidential campaign debate held on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., September 29, 2020.
It’s debate night in America!
Tonight’s face-off between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the first debate of its kind.
For one thing, bucking the tradition of recent years, there will be no live studio audience. For another, the mics will cut off automatically if candidates speak over time or out of turn.
But mostly, it’ll be the first time a sitting US president has debated his predecessor. That makes this a meeting of two largely known quantities. We already know both men as people and as presidents. The horizon of new things to learn about either of them is very, very limited.
Still, people will watch. Debates may be getting less useful – a new report by the NPR program Open to Debate charts the stark demise of the format over the past 20 years – but people do still watch them.
After the Super Bowl, debates remain one of America’s biggest TV draws. Whether people tune in as persuadable voters or as bloodthirsty spectators is a good question, but tune in they will. In our GZERO Twitter poll – which by the way is still open here – so far about 75% of respondents say they’ll be watching.
Will the debate matter? In a deeply polarized country choosing between two radically different candidates, most folks have their minds made up, it’s true.
But the margins matter. Biden won in 2020 by carrying a few swing states by fewer than 100,000 votes. For both men, pulling even a tiny percentage of persuadable voters back from the other guy, away from a third-party candidate, or off the couch to vote at all, could be the difference. And as a shameless plug for our Twitter poll here again, nearly 60% of you said it will matter. That’s a lot!
Policy vs. Perception. Abortion. Ukraine. Taxes. Gaza. Health Care. Immigration. We’ll hear about all of those things. But in the end, many people may be looking for something more basic from Biden and Trump.
“This is a lot more about how they appear than what they actually say,” says Eurasia Group boss (and GZERO Media founder) Ian Bremmer.
Biden needs to shake growing concerns about his age by showing that he’s vigorous and mentally capable of running a superpower for another four years. Trump, ever the chaos candidate, needs to show he can keep himself under control for a reasonably civilized 90-minute conversation.
With that as the bar – and it’s a low one – one candidate may be at greater risk than the other, says Bremmer. “I think there's a lot more downside for Biden precisely because his age is perceived to be so much more of a problem,” he says. And unlike in, say, the State of the Union, a set-piece where Biden was fired up, “this is a live-fire exercise, there's more ways you can go badly.”
But over to you: In the run-up to Thursday night’s presidential debate, we asked GZERO readers to play moderator and draft questions for the two main contenders, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Some even took up the challenge of posing the toughest questions either candidate could face.
Our inbox was soon overflowing with thoughtful responses like these:
Andrew Vickery, Lenox, MA
“It seems that America is on the path to become its own worst enemy. Lack of trust in democratic institutions. Declining public education. Vulnerable critical infrastructure (in terms of security). Identity politics. What will you do to strengthen the US domestically and decrease polarization? How will you remind Americans how lucky we are to be born here?”
_____
Emily Vondrak, Sioux City, IA
Tough question for Biden: “It will be hardest for him to defend his strategy at the Southern border. There is really no good answer. A close second is making any definitive statement about Israel. It will need to be somewhat vague or he will further alienate a portion of his own party.”
Tough question for Trump: “He will use his conviction as further evidence of what he considers a political agenda, but it will be hard to talk about that being political and not admit the case against Hunter Biden was also politically motivated – it would be drenched with hypocrisy.”
_____
David Taylor, Bourne End, UK
“Given that the mental acuity of both candidates is declining rapidly and the majority of the electorate would prefer other candidates, why have you not stepped aside in favour of a younger candidate?”
_____
Anonymous
For Biden: “Did you ask your son not to accept a position with Burisma when you were engaged in questioning the Ukrainian investigation of Burisma in order to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest?”
_____
Richard Willerton, Vancouver WA
“Draw a map of the world with the names of all the countries you have time for. The loser gets his ass kicked by the winner.”
For the full set of responses, click here.
Step up to the mic: What would you ask Biden and Trump?
In the run-up to Thursday night’s presidential debate, we asked GZERO readers to play moderator and draft questions for the two main contenders, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Some even took up the challenge of posing the toughest questions either candidate could face.
Our inbox was soon overflowing with thoughtful responses like these:
Andrew Vickery, Lenox, MA
“It seems that America is on the path to become its own worst enemy. Lack of trust in democratic institutions. Declining public education. Vulnerable critical infrastructure (in terms of security). Identity politics. What will you do to strengthen the US domestically and decrease polarization? How will you remind Americans how lucky we are to be born here?”
_____
Ward Greer, Bernardsville, NJ
“For me, policy issues are not as important in the debate as the ability of the candidates to coherently and presidentially respond to the questions being posed.”
_____
Anonymous
For both: “What moral values or principles guide you when you have to make a difficult decision?”
For Biden: “Did you ask your son not to accept a position with Burisma when you were engaged in questioning the Ukrainian investigation of Burisma in order to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest?”
For Trump: “Do you think the states have done a good job legislating around the issue of abortion since the end of Roe?”
_____
John W. Allen, NY, NY
“What is your definition of a con man?”
_____
David Boling, Arlington, VA
“Please tell us a characteristic that you admire in your opponent.”
_____
JK, Waterloo, ON
“Why didn't you step aside for a younger leader? Do you believe a younger leader couldn't do the job as well as you?”
“Any tough questions will be dismissed as both are experienced at not answering the question asked. It depends on whether the opponent can capitalize on the dismissal answer and turn it into a talking point that becomes part of the highlight reel of the debate.”
_____
John Morey, Woods Hole, MA
“If you could have dinner with a past or present political figure of the opposing party, living or dead, who would that be and why?”
_____
Steve from The Bronx, NYC
“Name the top 5 functions of the federal government in Washington:
Exs:
1 defense
2 currency/debt
3 border control
4 population safety
5 national infrastructure”
_____
Hanna Bärlund, Finland
Which of the current American politicians do you think is smarter or more intelligent than you and would you hire him/her to your staff in the White House?
_____
Brad Michaelson, Scottsdale, AZ
“If you lose, will you accept the results of the election? If either refuses, I would end the debate or as a participant, walk away. If you can’t/won’t accept the results of an American election, you can’t be expected to uphold the fundamental element of this government.”
Hardest question for Biden: “Who does America support in Gaza?” Follow up: “How would you handle Iraq involvement?”
For Trump: “What exactly is the Deep State?” Follow up: “How does it work?”
_____
Tom Quinn, Easthampton, Massachusetts
“Describe what being an American means to you. What traits, qualities, responsibilities, and expectations are there for the American citizen? Please answer the question from your heart and not some prescripted response.”
_____
Laurie Miller, Raleigh, NC
“What will you enact over the next 6-12 months that will make life better for the average American on the street?”
For Biden: “Why was this election not the time for someone younger to step forward for the Democratic nomination?”
For Trump: “Should a convicted felon be allowed to hold the office of President?”
_____
Emily Vondrak, Sioux City, IA
“We have a number of national crises impacting the US today – the border, high interest rates, national debt, drug overdoses, crime spikes, international conflict to name a few. If you could choose one to fully solve during your second term, which would it be and why?”
Tough question for Biden: “It will be hardest for him to defend his strategy at the Southern border. There is really no good answer. A close second is making any definitive statement about Israel. It will need to be somewhat vague or he will further alienate a portion of his own party.”
Tough question for Trump: “He will use his conviction as further evidence of what he considers a political agenda, but it will be hard to talk about that being political and not admit the case against Hunter Biden was also politically motivated – it would be drenched with hypocrisy.”
_____
Richard Willerton, Vancouver WA
“Draw a map of the world with the names of all the countries you have time for. The lower gets his ass kicked by the winner.”
_____
Robert Clark, New York, NY
“The excess of births over deaths has fallen by about 2/3rds in the last 15 years and is projected to head to zero. Population growth directly impacts our capacity to control inflation, address the national debt, and compete economically in a competitive global economy. As a policy goal, do you believe that the United States should target a significant net legal immigration – immigration on our terms according to our laws – as a desirable outcome, and if so, how would you propose we rewrite our failed immigration laws to achieve that national goal?”
Toughest question for Biden: “Mr. President, polls in the key battleground states show you trailing the Democrat's candidate for Senate by 4 to 13 points. Other polling suggests this is less about your performance as President than concerns about your capacity to serve another 4-year term due to age. Given this reality, the reality of voters' concerns here, why not "show them how to say goodbye" to quote the song from Hamilton, and retire to Delaware as a revered statesman who devoted his life to public service? Why not go out on top and hand the mantle of leadership to the next generation?”
Toughest question for Trump: “President Trump, your playful prediction that you could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and you wouldn't lose any supporters has proven prescient, as your criminal indictments, losses at trial, and recent felony conviction really haven't materially reduced support from your base. But outside of your base, Americans express concern that you are a liar, a serial adulterer, undermine relations with our allies, have no interest in safeguarding American institutions at the core of our democracy, attempted to subvert the peaceful transition of power in the last election, act entirely out of self-interest often in full disregard of the rule of law, and in short are wholly unfit to hold any position of trust in society, much less the Presidency. Do you think you need to attract voters outside your base and if so, how would you answer those concerns?
(Robert Clark, Robert Clark, New York, NY – permission granted)
_____
Bruce Beck, Salt Lake City, Utah
“What is your definition of 'poison blood'?”
_____
Michael Tanchek, Carson City, Nevada
Out of more than 210 million Americans over the age of 35, what makes you think you are the most qualified to be President?
_____
David Taylor, Bourne End, UK
“Given that the mental acuity of both candidates is declining rapidly and the majority of the electorate would prefer other candidates, why have you not stepped aside in favour of a younger candidate?”
_____
Sharon Weight, Half Moon Bay, CA
“What systemic, specific changes would you make to any Federal programs to reduce the deficit? “
Biden and Trump to debate: Revisiting their most memorable moments
Thursday night’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the first time a current US president debates a former one. It’s also the first time either of them has debated at all this election season — Trump skipped the Republican primary debates and Biden, as the incumbent, has debated no one on the Democratic side. Both candidates are polling at 46% nationally, so the stakes could not be higher.
With no recent debate track record for either of them, we look back at the biggest moments from their 2020 debates in search of clues for what to expect on Thursday night.
“Will you just shut up, man?”
The first Biden-Trump debate in September 2020 was chaotic. It was filled with personal attacks, name-calling, and interruptions (averaging about four interruptions per question, mostly from Trump). At one point, Biden turned to the then-president and said, shaking his head, “Will you shut up, man?”
In the second debate a month later, Biden’s prayers were answered when a policy of shutting off mics was implemented. Muting will be used as needed again in this week’s debate.
That doesn’t mean the candidates won’t still try to interrupt each other – after all, they will be in the same room, mics or not. And that’s something experts fear could rattle Biden more this time around than in the past. Since 2020, the president has become more reliant on set pieces and teleprompters, so he could pay a heavier price if Trump throws him off and he’s slow to respond.
“Abortion is not on the ballot”
In another exchange of interruptions during the first debate, Biden told viewers that “abortion is on the ballot … in the court.” But his point, that Trump had appointed a conservative majority that looked poised to overturn Roe v. Wade, was barely heard over Trump’s response: “Abortion is not on the ballot. I don’t think so. There’s nothing happening there.” Two years later, of course, the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion, fueling a massive boost for Democrats in the midterms later that year.
On Thursday, Biden will likely try to steer the conversation toward Trump’s political vulnerabilities, and abortion tops that list. But the president will also zero in on his predecessor’s recent felony convictions and the Jan. 6 riot as part of Biden’s overarching argument that Trump is a threat to democracy. Trump will aim for Biden’s weaknesses: weak polling, popular perceptions of economic malaise, and the crisis at the Southern border.
“Proud Boys, stand back and stand by.”
When asked whether he would condemn white supremacist groups when during the 2020 debates, Trump instead told the far-right Proud Boys, from the podium, to “stand back and stand by.” This raised alarm bells at the time, and many pointed out later that Proud Boys were out in force among the rioters who led the attack on the US Capitol on Jan. 6. Biden will likely try to paint Trump as being sympathetic to extremism, racism, and violence.
Trump for his part tried to brand extremism as a left-wing problem in 2020, saying, “Almost everything I see is from the left wing, Antifa groups, not from the right wing.” This argument could go further in 2024 after Republicans have seized on the recent wave of pro-Palestine student protests as symbols of liberal-driven chaos.
Are we in for a repeat of 2020? Or have these old dogs learned new tricks in the last four years? You can take our latest poll or shoot us an email to share your thoughts. And you can watch the debate on CNN at 9 p.m. EDT on Thursday, June 27.