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President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Pullman Yards in Atlanta, Georgia, on March 9, 2024.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo

Biden vs. Trump redux is official

They did it again. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mustered enough delegates in the primaries to secure their respective party nominations heading into this November’s presidential election — not that anyone expected otherwise.

For Biden, it was his win in Georgia last night that clinched it for the Democrats, while for Trump it was the GOP tally in Washington state. The rematch of 2020 comes despite both men’s unpopularity: Recent polling has Biden’s disapproval rating at 56.5%, while Trump’s unfavorable rating is nearly as high at 52.5%.

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Annie Gugliotta

2024: The year of elections

Buckle up for the most intense year of democracy the world has ever seen.

With at least 65 countries holding elections, 4.2 billion people – about half of the world's adult population – will have the chance to vote in 2024. Saying the world could shift on its axis this year is an understatement.

We break down the most consequential elections in 2024 below:

Bangladesh / Finland / Ghana / India / Indonesia / Iran / Jordan / Lithuania / Mexico / Mozambique / Namibia / Pakistan / Panama / Romania / Russia / Rwanda / Senegal / Solomon Islands / Somaliland / South Africa / South Korea / South Sudan / Taiwan / Tunisia / United Kingdom / United States / Uruguay / Venezuela / European Union Parliament

Plus, couple big "maybes": Israel and Ukraine

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Jess Frampton

Where does the US presidential election stand one year out?

A year out, the 2024 election looks like a coin flip.

National polling averages from 538 and RealClearPolitics currently have President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump – the two major parties’ presumptive nominees – in a statistical dead heat. Because of the Electoral College, though, the outcome of US elections is determined not by the national popular vote but by the states – and, increasingly, by a very small number of voters in a handful of swing states. Trump carried most of these in 2016, and Biden flipped most of them in 2020. The former was decided by about 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; the latter, by about 44,000 voters in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.

The 2024 election is likely to be just as close. Polls consistently show that most Americans dislike both Biden and Trump and would rather not have to choose between them. That both candidates will have a narrow path to victory is guaranteed. The only surprise at this point would be a landslide for either.

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Former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump greets the crowd during a campaign rally in Windham, New Hampshire, on Aug. 8, 2023.

REUTERS/Reba Saldanha

On stage or not, Trump will dominate the debate

When Republican presidential candidates take to the stage in Milwaukee on Aug. 23 for the first debate of the 2024 campaign, one issue will loom above all others – and you know exactly what his name is.

Whether Donald Trump appears on stage or chooses instead to offer live commentary via social media, the central question facing participants will be whether the frontrunning, hyper-charismatic, twice-impeached, thrice-indicted former president is the right candidate to carry the Republican standard into political combat next year against President Joe Biden.

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Politics, trust & the media in the age of misinformation
Politics, trust & the media in the age of misinformation | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Politics, trust & the media in the age of misinformation

Ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, GZERO World takes a hard look at the media’s impact on politics and democracy itself.

In 1964, philosopher Marshall McLuhan coined the phrase, “the media is the message.” He meant that the way content is delivered can be more powerful than the content itself.

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Why Mexico is a key issue in the 2024 US election
TITLE PLACEHOLDER | US Politics In: 60 | GZERO Media

Why Mexico is a key issue in the 2024 US election

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

I'm here in Mexico City, the capital of Mexico, which is a country that is turning out to be a major potential campaign issue in the US 2024 elections. We've already seen several Republican candidates try to distinguish themselves by painting Mexico as a bad guy. Florida governor Ron DeSantis has said that he wants to militarize the border in order to stop the flow of drugs, guns and crime and illegal immigrants coming over the border. Former President Donald Trump famously renegotiated NAFTA with Mexico and used the threat of additional tariffs to force Mexico to secure its southern border to prevent Central American migrants moving up into the United States. So this is going to be a big issue over the next 12 months in the US.

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2024 elections: Another likely Biden v Trump extravaganza
TITLE PLACEHOLDER | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

2024 elections: Another likely Biden v Trump extravaganza

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

What's the outlook for President Biden's reelection campaign?

This week, President Biden announced his intention to run for reelection in 2024, on the same day that he made the announcement that he was going to run for president in 2020. Already the oldest president in American history, Biden would be 82 years old on inauguration day if he wins, and 86 on his last day in office, putting a lot of attention on his running mate, Kamala Harris, who has proven herself not exactly ready for primetime in the three years she served as vice president, but will be once again Biden's running mate in '24.

Biden's announcement video put a lot of emphasis on a key theme of the last three years of his presidential campaigning, which has been democracy in the United States designed to create a contrast with Republicans, and in particular former President Donald Trump, who's under investigation by the Department of Justice for inciting the January 6th riots to overturn the results of the last election. Biden's very unlikely to face any serious opposition within the Democratic Party who are largely united around beating Republicans. And despite his advanced age and approval ratings in the low forties, they don't want to do anything to jeopardize their chances of doing that.

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U.S. Representative Liz Cheney waves at an event in Jackson, Wyoming.

REUTERS/David Stubbs

Liz Cheney 2024

Congresswoman Liz Cheney has said that “there has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution” than Donald Trump’s bid to overturn the results of the 2020 US presidential election. And now she has paid the full price for that conviction.

Cheney’s defeat in this week’s Republican primary election for Wyoming’s lone House seat made news for two big reasons. First, it closed the book on the “Donald Trump impeachment revenge tour.” (Of the 10 GOP congressmen who voted to impeach Trump, four were defeated for re-election by Trump-endorsed challengers, four announced their retirement, and just two have survived.) In other words, Trump’s grip on his party remains strong. Second, it opens the next chapter of Liz Cheney’s increasingly interesting political career.

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