We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Europe welcomes US Ukraine package, but pushes to add even more aid
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
What's the European reaction to, finally, the decision by the US House of Representatives to give green light to military aid to Ukraine?
Well, obviously enormous satisfaction. We've been waiting for quite some long time. But it has to be said, however important this is, that it will take some time for it to reach the battle lines in the east of Europe. It's not enough. And, in the days before the US decision, that was a decision by the European head of state, the government, to increase European aid. There's already very substantial European aid packages there, of course, but more is needed primarily in the terms of our defense. Germany immediately decided to commit to further battery of Patriots. And, discussions are underway among European capitals to further Patriots and other deliveries that are necessary in order to, make certain to Mr. Putin that they will never win at some point in time, they simply have to cave back. And the last week was an important one.
What about the European aspirations of Georgia in view of the measures taken by its government?
Yeah, that's a big question. I mean, the Georgian government, a rather doubtful one, in my opinion, with this new foreign agents, Russian-inspired law against opposition is creating substantial doubts in European capitals, whether it was that wise to give the country candidate status. That has been done. But, let's see what happens now. It is certainly not going to be an issue of quick march for Georgia with the European Union in light of what we see happening in Tbilisi these days.
- Georgia’s parliament advances divisive foreign agents bill ›
- Russia invaded Georgia too, and it never left ›
- Tiktok ban and foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan passes in the House ›
- Ian Explains: If the US steps back from Ukraine, can Europe go it alone? ›
- Why the US is sending aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan - GZERO Media ›
Mamuka Mdinaradze, leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party's parliamentary faction, is punched in the face by opposition MP Aleko Elisashvili during discussion of the bill on "foreign agents" in the Parliament, Tbilisi, Georgia, April 15, 2024 in this still image taken from a live broadcast video.
Georgia’s parliament advances divisive foreign agents bill
Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, on Wednesday advanced a controversial “foreign agents” bill that rights groups say could be used to stifle civil society and silence political opponents.
The bill, which has sparked street violence and a parliamentary fistfight, would require any organization receiving 20% of its funding from abroad to register as a foreign agent.
Critics call it the “Russian law” because it mimics legislation the Kremlin has used to silence dissent in Russia. Georgian Dream and its billionaire founder, who made his fortune in Russia, are often seen as sympathetic to Moscow. The Kremlin denies any connection to the bill.
Georgian Dream says the law is like the US Foreign Agents Registration Act, aka FARA. But while FARA primarily focuses on government lobbyists, the Georgian law targets any organizations that have foreign funding. The EU, meanwhile, says the bill violates democratic norms, and warned that its passage would “negatively impact Georgia’s progress” in joining the bloc.
The bill, which must still pass two more readings before becoming law, is “very damaging for Georgia’s image and for Western support of Georgia,” says Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born analyst at Eurasia Group.
It’s a sign, she says, that the former Soviet republic is at risk of tilting in the “direction of being under Moscow’s influence yet again,” particularly if Georgian Dream retains control after October’s crucial parliamentary elections.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on board the Russian guided missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov in the Black Sea, January 9, 2020.
Moscow’s plan for new Black Sea base sets Georgia on edge
It seems Russia wasn’t bluffing about building a naval base in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia occupied by Russian forces. According to new satellite imagery reviewed by the BBC, dredging and construction appear to be underway at the port in question, and it’s setting off some alarm bells in Tbilisi.
In early November, dozens of Georgian opposition lawmakers expressed firm opposition to the plan in a statement to the EU and NATO, condemning it as part of a Russian effort to annex Abkhazia.
Moscow’s recognition of Abkhazia as an independent state in the aftermath of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war fueled “long-time speculations about its alleged goals to absorb the disputed region,” says Tinatin Japaridze, a native of Georgia and political risk analyst at Eurasia Group. “Such speculations have only intensified recently after the announcement that Russia plans to establish a permanent naval base in Ochamchira, a seaside city on the Black Sea coast of Abkhazia.”
But Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream Party, which has faced allegations of being pro-Russia, is downplaying the significance of the Kremlin’s plans.
Nikoloz Samkharadze, head of Georgia's Foreign Relations Committee, told the BBC that it will take at least three years for the base to be built. “We are concentrated on imminent threats, and not on threats that might come in the future,” he said.
But Russia’s influence in Abkhazia is already a “source of significant security concerns for Tbilisi,” says Japaridze. This is partially due to the territory’s “proximity to Georgia’s Anaklia deep seaport, a strategically significant Black Sea project to be co-built by the Georgian state with majority ownership of shares,” she adds.
Georgia’s ruling party has so far managed to avoid being pulled into Russia’s war in Ukraine, but if Moscow bases some of its naval assets in Abkhazia, it increases the probability that its fight with Ukraine could come to Georgian territory.
The flags of Russia and North Korea.
Hard Numbers: North Korean arms to Russia, terror in Brussels, Meloni eyes tax cuts, pro-Russian Georgian politicking, Palestinian-American boy murdered
1,000: White House officials say North Korea has sent up to 1,000 shipping containers of “equipment and munitions” to Russia recently. Satellite images purportedly show clear evidence of Russian ships linked to military transport networks collecting the cargo – signs that Pyongyang is aiding Moscow’s war efforts.
2: Two Swedish nationals were killed in a shooting in Brussels on Monday. The attack in the Belgian capital took place during the Belgium-Sweden Euro 2024 qualifier soccer match, and play was subsequently halted. The gunman, who is believed to have been Tunisian, posted a video on social media claiming to have waged the attack in the name of God. He was shot dead by police late Monday.
24 billion: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni aims to cut taxes and boost public sector incomes next year, and her cabinet approved a budget on Monday to spend 24 billion euros ($25.3 billion) to make it happen. Meloni needs to boost growth and consumption quickly, before next June’s European Parliament elections, which could test her coalition government.
100: The Constitutional Court of Georgia found the country's pro-western President Salome Zourabichvili guilty on Monday of breaching the constitution by conducting visits with European leaders and lobbying for her country's membership of the European Union without government consent. While her opponents in the ruling Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia are unlikely to get the 100 votes they need to remove her, the president – who constitutionally represents the country in foreign relations – is expected to face intense pressure to resign, perhaps paving a route for a pro-Russian leader to take the helm.
26: As we’ve mentioned, the war in the Middle East has sparked an uptick in hate crimes around the globe. One of the latest victims was six-year-old Palestinian-American Wadea Al-Fayoume, from the Chicago area, who was stabbed 26 times on Saturday and died from his injuries. His mother was also stabbed and remains in hospital, and police have charged the suspect with murder and hate crimes.Donald Trump and his co-defendents
Trump delivers America’s first presidential mug shot
On Thursday evening, former President Donald Trump surrendered to authorities at Fulton County Jail, in Atlanta, GA. Arriving by motorcade, he was greeted by supporters – many of whom started hours earlier – who held signs referring to the indictments as political persecution. Trump posted his $200,000 bail, presumably putting down the required 10%, and posed for the first-ever presidential mugshot. He then gave a thumbs up to his fans before departing – all in 20 minutes or less.
Some quick background: Trump and 18 others were indicted last week for their alleged involvement in trying to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia. This is Trump’s fourth indictment, but this one is potentially more serious for three reasons:
- RICO: The prosecutor is crafting a racketeering case. Georgia’s RICO laws allow prosecutors to charge multiple people who commit separate crimes for a common goal. This enables Trump to be held responsible for any crime committed by his co-defendants, who include former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliant, former White House staffers, and low-level Georgia GOP functionaries.
- It’s unpardonable: A president can pardon their own federal convictions, but state convictions – these are state charges – are outside the presidential purview.
- It will likely be televised: If the trial plays out on television for all of America to see, the unfiltered footage could influence independent voters and moderate Republicans.
What’s coming? The next step is Trump’s arraignment, where he will come before the judge to be formally charged and enter a plea. Prosecutor Fani T. Willis has asked the court to hold the arraignments the week of Sept. 5.
Willis also requested an Oct. 23 trial date. The judge has already approved the request for a speedy trial on that date for Trump’s co-defendant and former lawyer Kenneth Chesebro. Chesebro is accused of being the architect behind the scheme to use fake electors to subvert the election results in Georgia and several other states.
But Trump’s legal team has contested the early date and is calling for his case to be severed from Chesebro. A quick case is the last thing Trump wants because it would interfere with his primary campaign and could stick him with an unpardonable conviction before the election in 2024.
Brandon Flowers of The Killers performs at the Virgin Festival in Baltimore, Maryland
Russia kills the mood at The Killers concert
Somebody told me you had a boyfriend ... but, apparently, not that Georgia is a former Soviet state!
Those could be new lyrics to The Killers song after the band invited a Russian fan on stage at a concert in Georgia and encouraged the audience to embrace him as a brother. Yep, you read that right.
Frontman Brandon Flowers introduced the audience member as Russian during their ritual of inviting a fan to play the drums on stage. When the crowd responded with boos, Flowers responded, "You can't recognize if someone's your brother? We all separate on the borders of our countries? Am I not your brother, being from America?"
What Flowers overlooked: Calling for Russian brotherhood in Georgia brings back memories of the 2008 Russo-Georgian war. Russia invaded the former Soviet state 15 years ago and has occupied 20% of its territory ever since. Fears of Russian aggression have skyrocketed among Georgians since the invasion of Ukraine, and tensions have been exacerbated by thousands of Russians entering the country to flee the draft.
“Inviting a Russian drummer to serenade a crowd of Georgians on their soil amid a crawling Russian occupation was a mind-blowing oversight,” says Tinatin Japaridze, a Eurasian political risk analyst at Eurasia Group and native Georgian. “While we cannot expect every rockstar to have an in-house geopolitical risk analyst on speed dial, I find it hard to believe that The Killers had not been at least casually informed that the place where they were about to perform had spent 70 years under Soviet occupation, and relations with Russia — a northern neighbor that invaded my country in 2008 — continue to be tumultuous, to say the least.”
“Hopefully, The Killers will spread the word among their colleagues in entertainment and make it public knowledge in the West that for as long as Moscow continues to occupy our sovereign territory, Russians cannot and will not be our siblings,” she adds.
Flowers has since apologized, but we’re skeptical he’ll be invited to bring “Mr. Brightside” back to Georgia anytime soon.
Will Trump's indictment in Georgia do him in?
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Trump's fourth indictment: is this the one that does him in?
Former President Trump was indicted this week in Georgia on charges that he attempted to overturn the election results there. He was indicted along with a broad group of co-conspirators by a local prosecutor. And this case represents some more serious legal jeopardy for Trump because even if he wins the White House, there's not much he can do to either pardon himself or get the charges dropped. There's now four criminal indictments against the President, one in Manhattan on a relatively minor set of document charges that he probably won't go to jail for. Two in a federal courtroom, one in Florida and one in Washington DC about his mishandling of classified documents and his attempts to overturn the election on the day of the Capitol riot on January 6th.
Both of those he could be convicted of, but if he wins the White House, he can either drop the charges against him if they're still pending or pardon himself. If he doesn't win the White House, then he faces some legal risk. However, in Georgia, whether or not he wins the White House, this case will be brought and he will be trialed. And if he's found guilty, the state may attempt to force the sitting president of the United States to go to jail. Truly an unprecedented situation. Never had anything like it in the United States. Never even had somebody facing criminal indictment like this, running for the White House. So this is going to be the dominant news story over the most of the campaign. Over the better part of the next year and a half, as President Trump sits in a courtroom in Georgia potentially with the cameras rolling or sits in the federal courthouse or the courthouse in Manhattan facing the hearing, the charges that are being leveled against him.
By day and then at night he goes out in campaigns in Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, and talks all about how the system is corrupt and trying to take them down. And longer term, this is going to end up eroding support for law enforcement among Trump's Republican supporters, which is going to be ultimately bad for the rule of law as Republicans start to turn away from the local prosecutors and the federal law enforcement that are going after President Trump for what they believe are purely politically motivated issues. So, huge story. You're not going to be able to avoid it. He's the most famous man in the world. He's facing four trials overlapping to one degree or another that'll probably play out over the next several years. Good luck trying not to hear about that.
Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump.
Georgia poses new dangers for Trump
Late Monday night, Donald Trump and 18 other people were indicted by a grand jury in Atlanta for conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the state of Georgia.
Trump will face 13 felony charges. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and other alleged co-conspirators are charged with taking part in a “criminal enterprise” to flip the presidential election in a crucial state.
You can read the full indictment here.
Let’s cut to the chase: Trump has already been indicted three times – in New York City, Washington, DC, and Florida – and he faces dozens of other felony charges in those cases. And though it’s too soon to know the likelihood of a Trump conviction in any of them, there’s no evidence yet that they’ve dented his popularity. Here are the latest GOP primary numbers and matchups with President Joe Biden.
Is this case different? Might this one put Trump in real legal and political jeopardy?
In fact, Georgia may offer Trump a much tougher set of both legal and political problems. Here are three reasons why.
RICO
Georgia law features something called the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, widely known as RICO. Legal experts have warned that the broad powers this law gives a prosecutor – in this case, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis – can be used to charge Trump with all sorts of crimes related to the core charge of election fraud.
Under Georgia’s RICO law, prosecutors can bring such a case simply by showing the existence of an “enterprise” involved in at least two “qualifying” crimes that form part of a “pattern of racketeering activity.” He could, for example, be charged with solicitation to commit election fraud, perjury, forgery and/or improperly influencing government officials. These crimes need not have taken place in Georgia if their purpose was to overturn Georgia’s election results.
Crucially, the law doesn’t require the state to prove that Trump personally ordered, or even knew about, the commission of every crime in the indictment. It need only prove he led the enterprise that committed them.
Cameras rolling
In the interest of transparency, Georgia law requires there be cameras in the courtroom, unless a judge has a compelling reason not to allow them. This entire case may well play out on live television.
Yes, Trump is still riding high in Republican primary polls and running neck and neck with Biden. But undecided general election voters, particularly the independents Trump needs to win over in Nov. 2024, can now have a much closer look at the evidence against him. They won’t simply hear about it from Trump himself or from Trump-friendly media.
He also faces the risk that after months of televised daily legal grind, public fatigue with his long list of criminal charges will start to set in.
Unpardonable crimes
Despite all this, Trump may well be elected president next November, and the president of the United States can legally pardon convicted criminals. In theory, a president could pardon himself, though that idea has never been tested by US courts. But the charges facing Trump in Georgia are for state, not federal, crimes. No president can pardon someone convicted in state court.
Complicating matters further, under Georgia law, the governor couldn’t pardon a convicted president either. (There are already plenty of hard feelings between Trump and Governor Brian Kemp, who refused to help Trump reverse the state’s presidential election results in 2020.) If Trump were convicted in Georgia, only a five-member pardon board could absolve him. That’s a far more complicated problem.
The bottom line: Donald Trump has defied political and legal gravity for years. A poorly prepared prosecution, a friendly juror or two, and continued support from committed followers might well keep him aloft through 2024.
Or, Georgia might prove the band Radiohead right: “Gravity always wins.”