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What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Parma, Italy.
First question, obviously, is what's happening in France?
The Barnier government didn't last more than 57 days. It was brought down by the populists of the right and the populists of the left. And Barnier tried to do what needs to be done. Bring the French budget under control. They have a deficit of roughly 6% of GDP. That's double what is allowed under the European Union rules and they were headed to 7%. He had proposed a budget of tax cuts and expenditure cuts, take it down to 5%, which is too high anyhow, and brought down. So what will happen now? Well, Marine Le Pen would like to get rid of Macron. I think that's unlikely to happen in the short perspective anyhow. And Macron, the president, will have to find a new prime minister and a new government. That will take its time. And from the wider European perspective, of course, less than ideal. We have an extremely weak government in Germany heading for elections and likely to lose that particular election. We now have a situation where France doesn't have any functioning government either, and we have things happening on the other side of the Atlantic.
Second question, is there any way for the European Union and other Europeans to influence the course of events in Georgia?
Well, one would hope so, but I think prospects are not particularly good. We have an increasingly seemingly authoritarian, I would call it, government leaning towards some sort of, call it, Putin-esque regime, consolidating power using violence, have evidently falsified and rigged elections to a very large extent, and intending to stay in power. And now, we have a fairly significant popular opposition developing on the streets of not only Tbilisi, but several other Georgian cities. Will that result in violence? Will that result in some sort of accommodation? Will that result in it all being repressed? We don't know. EU will have to, and America as well, contemplate sanctions and other measures in a fairly short period of time in order to have any possibility of influencing the course of events. Otherwise, I fear the prospects are rather grim.
Demonstrators stand next to a fire during a protest against the new government's decision to suspend the European Union accession talks and refuse budgetary grants until 2028, in Tbilisi, Georgia December 2, 2024.
Tbilisi in turmoil: Protests erupt over suspended EU talks
Thousands of protesters clashed with police in the Georgian capital for a third consecutive night on Saturday after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s government suspended negotiations to join the European Union. Late Friday, Demonstrators broke through metal gates outside Georgia’s parliament buildings, using garbage bins and benches as makeshift barricades as riot police deployed tear gas and water cannons. Protesters also took to the streetsin other regions and cities across the country including Batumi, Kutaisi, and Zugdidi.
Kobakhidze’s EU exit comes after Western leaders condemned Georgia’s October election, which returned the ruling Georgian Dream party to power, as fraudulent. Party founder, pro-Russian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, stood accused of bribing voters, while Kobakhidze has become increasingly aligned with Moscow.
In response, President Salome Zourabichvili,who’s pro-Western, described the current government as “illegitimate” and vowed to retain her role past on Dec. 14, the date the parliament has set for picking her replacement,likely to be far-right politician and former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili.
Hundreds of civil servants have also signed letters of protest; Georgia’s ambassadors to Bulgaria, Netherlands, and Italy resigned; and the US State Department has suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia. Kobakhidze accuses opponents of plotting a revolution similar to the 2013-2014 Maidan Uprising in Ukraine, which toppled a pro-Russian president – a precedent he does not want to see repeated.
Protesters, including supporters of Georgia's opposition parties, hold a rally to dispute the Georgian Dream's declared victory in the weekend's parliamentary election in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Oct. 28, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Georgians protest, VW closes plants, China closes kindergartens, Uruguay preps for presidential runoff
1,000s: “They stole your vote and tried to steal your future,” Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili told pro-EU supporters on Monday, urging fellow citizens to take to the streets following the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party’s declared victory in Sunday’s election. Exit polls had offered conflicting trajectories on who would win. By late Monday, tens of thousands of protesters were pouring out onto the streets of Tbilisi to fight for Georgia’s democracy and future.
3: German auto giant Volkswagen, struggling amid weak sales and a slower-than-expected EV expansion, is hitting the brakes on three factories within Germany — the first time in its 87-year history the company has shuttered a plant in Deutschland. The move coincides with plans for layoffs and pay cuts of up to 18% with a two-year pay freeze.
5%: The number of Chinese kindergartens dropped by more than 5% in China last year – pupil enrollment dropped by 11% – owing to the country’s negative population growth. While there were 289,200 kindergartens in 2022, by last year that number had fallen to 274,400, according to China’s Ministry of Education. Some of the facilities were converted into senior care centers to help serve the country’s aging population.
1.06 million: Uruguay is heading for a presidential election runoff next month after no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the first round on Sunday. Yamandú Orsi, a center-left candidate who’s a two-time mayor and former history teacher, came away with 1.06 million votes. Meanwhile, Álvaro Delgado, the center-right ruling party’s candidate, received 644,147 votes – ahead of the third-place candidate, Andrés Ojeda, who received 385,685 votes. The South American country stands apart from its neighbors, and much of the world, in avoiding highly divisive politics and conducting an election typified by civility.Supporters of the Georgian Dream party wave Georgian and party flags from cars after the announcement of poll results in parliamentary elections, in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Oct. 26, 2024.
Is the Georgian Dream the West’s nightmare?
Opposition coalitions in the country of Georgia and its pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili are accusing the incumbent Georgian Dream of stealing Saturday’s election, calling the results “falsified” and a “constitutional coup.” While the country’s electoral commission declared Georgian Dream the winner with 54% of the vote, several exit polls predicted a win for the opposition. Three monitoring organizations, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, cited irregularities such as vote buying, double voting, hate speech, and Russian disinformation.
“For now, Western governments are cautious in outright rejecting the election results, instead calling on Georgia's Central Election Commission to conduct investigations to reveal the violations,” says Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born analyst at Eurasia Group. But it is clear to everyone – including the Georgian Dream's leadership – that without significant manipulations and voter intimidation, the ruling party would have failed to secure a decisive win.”
The results bode poorly for Georgia’s accession to the EU: While Georgian Dream has promised a path to membership – something 80% of Georgians support – its rhetoric has grown increasingly authoritarian, anti-Western, and pro-Russia and China.
“The European Council has vowed to assess the latest developments and determine the EU's next steps in its relations with Georgia next month. We can expect the country's EU accession process to remain halted indefinitely, even if the ruling regime continues to insist that they are still moving toward eventual EU membership,” says Japaridze.
The party’s founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, campaigned on keeping Georgia out of the war in Ukraine, and the party has proposed anti-LGBTQ+ laws mirroring those in Russia.
What’s next? Pro-western opposition leaders are planning protests and a Parliamentary boycott, similar to the five-month stalemate that followed Georgia’s 2020 election, which EU mediators eventually sorted out. But that’s not likely to happen in 2024: Georgian Dream has vowed to outlaw its opponents and pro-western groups.
“Despite pulling out all of the stops, the ruling party failed to garner enough votes to achieve a so-called constitutional majority in the parliament, which will make it very difficult for them to single-handedly amend the constitution, override presidential vetoes, and ban political opposition,” says Japaridze.
Meanwhile, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban announced a visit to Tbilisi on Monday – another sign that authoritarianism is gaining ground.
“President Zourabichvili has vowed to continue this battle, calling on those who believe Georgia's future is in Europe and not in Moscow's backyard to take to the streets starting tonight. Uncertainty about what happens next mixed with anger over a blatantly stolen election is a very potent motivator, especially for the youth.”
Supporters of the Georgian Dream party attend a final campaign rally ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Tbilisi, Georgia October 23, 2024.
Georgia’s vote: A contest between Russia and the West
The former Soviet republic of Georgia is holding crucial parliamentary elections on Saturday that many view as a choice between drifting back into Russia’s orbit or embracing a European future. The stakes are massive: Georgia’s aspirations of joining the EU hang in the balance.
In the past year, the ruling Georgian Dream party, which is vying to retain power, sparked mass protests by passing a controversial “foreign agent” law that opponents say is identical to Russian legislation used to squash dissent. The law was decried in the West and saw the EU halt Georgia’s accession.
Meanwhile, Georgian Dream insists the country is still on track to join the EU, as critics accuse the party of pushing Georgia in an increasingly anti-Western, authoritarian direction.
The party, meanwhile, accuses opponents of trying to push Georgia into Ukraine’s war with Russia, which invaded Georgia in 2008 and still occupies 20% of its territory. It has also pledged to ban opposition parties if it wins on Saturday — a move that would greatly undermine democracy in Georgia and the country’s EU ambitions even though 80% of Georgians support joining the bloc.
The mood in Georgia is tense, and there are concerns that the Georgian Dream is using tactics such as voter intimidation to gain an unfair advantage. Polls indicate that it will win the most votes, but that four coalitions made up of opposition parties could collectively gain more support. If Georgian Dream doesn’t win a decisive victory and the opposition is unable to band together, then the ruling party could form a coalition government.
Whatever the outcome, Georgia is expected to face a period of instability as it moves to get back on track with the EU or takes even more major steps away from the West.
Click here for more insights from Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born regional analyst at Eurasia Group.
FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' face appears as a video plays on a screen, during a rally at Huntington Place in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election
The US election will likely be decided in the seven highly competitive swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Within these, there are various combinations that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could secure to make it to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all the states that solidly and likely lean their way, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Here’s a roadmap of each candidate’s route through the swing states to the White House, and the key voters and issues in each state, in order of their number of electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state because it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, and it's hard to imagine either candidate winning the White House without it. According to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Pennsylvania historically trended slightly blue, but in recent years the state has purpled. The state House is divided and the last few general elections have been decided on razor-thin margins. That was until the 2022 governor’s race when Democrat Josh Shapiro triumphed over a Trump-backed Republican by almost fifteen points, and his approval ratings in the state remain strong.
When it comes to the issues and key demographics, Pennsylvania is a mini America. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to newer industries, and agriculture is still the state’s second largest industry. It also has a massive energy sector – where fracking is and the green energy transition are major issues.
Demographically, the majority of the population is white, but the immigrant population is increasing. Twelve percent of the population is black, just under the national total of 13%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean blue, and the vast rural stretches between them are dominated by Republicans.
Harris currently leads by less than 1 point, meaning it’s a dead tie. In 2020, Joe Biden only won the state by 1.2 points.
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and after years of Republican dominance, Biden clinched the closest win in 2020, at just 0.2 points, largely thanks to the state's rapidly diversifying population, marking the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state in nearly three decades.
It has also been the site of a battle over whether votes would be hand-counted on election night, but a judge struck down the proposal this week, ruling it would be too disruptive.
Just under half of the Peach State’s population is non-white. Thirty-three percent of the population is Black, and both candidates are vying to win their vote. Strong Black voter turnout – key to Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020 – was credited in large portion to the efforts of Stacey Abrams, who is also campaigning on Harris’ behalf this election. But Trump is trying to win those voters to his side by focusing on his economic policies, illegal immigration, and inflation.
Harris is also campaigning heavily on the state’s abortion restrictions, in recognition that women, who comprise 51% of Georgia’s population, could also play a crucial role in winning the state.
As of now, the state is leaning back toward its Republican roots. Trump is ahead there by two points.
North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes,has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 2012. But right now, the state is a toss-up, with Trump ahead by less than one point.
Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just 70,000 votes, which has buoyed Democrats' hopes that this purple state could be winnable this year. The state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Harris is trying to boost recovery efforts while Trump is criticizing and spread misinformation about FEMA not doing enough – or even being completely corrupt. He is also campaigning on illegal immigration and the economy.
Next up is Michigan, which has 15 electoral college votes, and because it has the largest proportion of Arab Americans, it has become the nationwide epicenter for backlash over Biden’s support for Israel's war in Gaza. During the Democratic primary in the state, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots to push the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.
Most of these voters realize a Trump administration would be even more supportive of Israel. But they feel unrecognized by the DNC, especially after the party decided not to have a pro-Palestine speaker at the DNC. As a result, the appeal of voting third-party, or not at all, is growing in the Great Lakes State.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is the focal point of the nation’s immigration debate thanks to its 372-mile-long border with Mexico. Trump is showing strength in this Sun Belt State and is ahead by 2 points, in large part because of support from the state’s Hispanic voters. At his rallies in the state, Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris’ record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Joe Biden to try to ease the border crisis.
However, Democrats are banking that ballot measures codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies, before the issue of whether to add the right to an abortion to the state constitution landed on the ballot to be decided in November.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes,is a key component of the Democrats' clearest path to victory – which would be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Like in 2020, it has the potential to be a “tipping point” giving either candidate the edge. Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state. But it became a big-time battleground after Trump eked out a victory there in 2016.
The state is overwhelmingly white, and white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates. Notably, Harris garnered the endorsement of the local Teamsters union in Wisconsin despite national union representatives deciding not to back a candidate in the race and dispersed internal data showing a majority of members backed Trump.
But another important group is independent voters. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, the electorate is fairly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a notable independent population in between. These independent voters helped Trump win the state in 2016 and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.
The biggest issues in the state are the economy, crime, and abortion. As things stand now, neither candidate has a lead, with Harris ahead by less than one vote.
Last and with the least electoral weight, is Nevada. Harris currently leads – if you can call it that – by less than 1 percentage point in this Sun Belt swing state. That being said, it is tricky to predict because it has more registered independent voters than Democrats or Republicans. However, with just 6 electoral votes, it is much less likely to be decisive.
Once decidedly blue, the Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins since 2000. It is also the most diverse battleground state, and Harris has shrunk Trump’s lead since she took to the ticket.
Even though the US economy has shown strong growth and job creation since Biden took the presidency, the post-COVID recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere. At 5.1%, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Trump has been campaigning in the state to lower taxes and lessen regulations.
It’s war game time. Harris’ most obvious strategy is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But this would get her to exactly 270 votes, and only if she won all of the states Biden won in 2020. This is risky. Any misstep, even just losing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could lose her the presidency.
If she loses Pennsylvania, which she very well might, she’d need to pick up one of the two Sun Belt states and one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she still carries Michigan and Wisconsin. There’s also the chance she could repeat Biden’s 2020 victory, winning Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- though that would be quite a blowout.If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he could reach 270 by winning the two swing states where he is ahead the most, Georgia and Arizona, as well as Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan.
Trump’s easiest path to victory is blocking Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. To do this, Trump would need to exceed his 2020 performance in suburban counties. But like Harris, this strategy of winning exactly 270 leaves no room for error. All that we really know is that whoever wins Pennsylvania will be well on their way to winning the White House.
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney ruled Tuesday that certifying elections is a required duty of county election boards in Georgia, and they’re not allowed to refuse to finalize results based on suspicions of miscounts or fraud.
Trump faces setback in Georgia
Trump previously praised the three right-wing board members who formed a conservative majority on the board and pushed the rule through as “pit bulls fighting for honesty, transparency, and victory.”
But Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney said Tuesday that the rule “is too much, too late.”
Earlier in the day, McBurney in a separate case also said that local election officials “have a mandatory fixed obligation to certify election results," in another blow for Trump allies who’ve contended results could be delayed over fraud concerns.
Georgia was at the heart of Trump’s push to overturn the election results in 2020, which ultimately led to him being indicted.
Turkish citizens disembark naval ship TCG Bayraktar carrying people evacuated from Lebanon upon their arrival at a port in Turkey's Mediterranean coastal province of Mersin, Turkey, October 10, 2024.
Hard Numbers: A quarter of Lebanon under Israeli evacuation orders, Milton costs insurers big, The EU wants its money back, Early voting in Georgia breaks records
25: Over 25% of Lebanon is facing Israeli evacuation orders, which were expanded to include 20 villages on Tuesday. The sprawling evacuation orders come as Israel expands its bombing campaign in the south and east of Lebanon, and in the suburbs of Beirut. Over the past three weeks, 1.2 million people have already fled from their homes, with more than 400,000 children in Lebanon displaced, according to the UN children’s agency.
36 billion: After Hurricane Milton tore through central Florida last week, risk modelers predicted that it would lead to about $36 billion in insurance payouts, well above the $6 billion of claims they estimate Hurricane Helene caused last month. The cost of increasingly damaging storms has experts fearing that more insurance firms will exit the region, further driving up premiums.
163 million: It is looking certain that the EU will be unable to claw back any of the $163 million it paid to Tunisia in a controversial migration deal. Brussels paid Tunis to crack down on migrants leaving its shores bound for Europe, but the money is being increasingly linked to human rights violations – including allegations that sums went to security forces who raped migrant women.
305,900: On Tuesday, the first day of early voting in Georgia, the southern US state saw record turnout, with 305,900 votes. That’s more than twice the number of first-day early voters in 2020, when the state’s previous record was set with 136,000 votes cast on the first day.