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This Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
The Graphic Truth: Tracking the Liberal comeback
Despite the two parties narrowing by a point in the polls since they released their platforms this past week, looking at the arc of the race overall, it appears that the Conservatives peaked too early and the Liberals have made an impressive resurgence.
When Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned — accusing the Liberal leadership of being unprepared to face the growing threat of Donald Trump — it sent shockwaves through the party and delivered a major blow to Justin Trudeau’s leadership. The Liberals were already tanking in the polls, and many saw no way back.
But since Trudeau stepped down, the party has been on a sharp upswing. Trump’s renewed threats against Canada have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism — a momentum the Liberals have tapped into. It’s too soon to call the results, but as the election comes to a close, this Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' face appears as a video plays on a screen, during a rally at Huntington Place in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election
The US election will likely be decided in the seven highly competitive swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Within these, there are various combinations that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could secure to make it to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all the states that solidly and likely lean their way, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Here’s a roadmap of each candidate’s route through the swing states to the White House, and the key voters and issues in each state, in order of their number of electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state because it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, and it's hard to imagine either candidate winning the White House without it. According to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Pennsylvania historically trended slightly blue, but in recent years the state has purpled. The state House is divided and the last few general elections have been decided on razor-thin margins. That was until the 2022 governor’s race when Democrat Josh Shapiro triumphed over a Trump-backed Republican by almost fifteen points, and his approval ratings in the state remain strong.
When it comes to the issues and key demographics, Pennsylvania is a mini America. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to newer industries, and agriculture is still the state’s second largest industry. It also has a massive energy sector – where fracking is and the green energy transition are major issues.
Demographically, the majority of the population is white, but the immigrant population is increasing. Twelve percent of the population is black, just under the national total of 13%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean blue, and the vast rural stretches between them are dominated by Republicans.
Harris currently leads by less than 1 point, meaning it’s a dead tie. In 2020, Joe Biden only won the state by 1.2 points.
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and after years of Republican dominance, Biden clinched the closest win in 2020, at just 0.2 points, largely thanks to the state's rapidly diversifying population, marking the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state in nearly three decades.
It has also been the site of a battle over whether votes would be hand-counted on election night, but a judge struck down the proposal this week, ruling it would be too disruptive.
Just under half of the Peach State’s population is non-white. Thirty-three percent of the population is Black, and both candidates are vying to win their vote. Strong Black voter turnout – key to Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020 – was credited in large portion to the efforts of Stacey Abrams, who is also campaigning on Harris’ behalf this election. But Trump is trying to win those voters to his side by focusing on his economic policies, illegal immigration, and inflation.
Harris is also campaigning heavily on the state’s abortion restrictions, in recognition that women, who comprise 51% of Georgia’s population, could also play a crucial role in winning the state.
As of now, the state is leaning back toward its Republican roots. Trump is ahead there by two points.
North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes,has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 2012. But right now, the state is a toss-up, with Trump ahead by less than one point.
Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just 70,000 votes, which has buoyed Democrats' hopes that this purple state could be winnable this year. The state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Harris is trying to boost recovery efforts while Trump is criticizing and spread misinformation about FEMA not doing enough – or even being completely corrupt. He is also campaigning on illegal immigration and the economy.
Next up is Michigan, which has 15 electoral college votes, and because it has the largest proportion of Arab Americans, it has become the nationwide epicenter for backlash over Biden’s support for Israel's war in Gaza. During the Democratic primary in the state, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots to push the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.
Most of these voters realize a Trump administration would be even more supportive of Israel. But they feel unrecognized by the DNC, especially after the party decided not to have a pro-Palestine speaker at the DNC. As a result, the appeal of voting third-party, or not at all, is growing in the Great Lakes State.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is the focal point of the nation’s immigration debate thanks to its 372-mile-long border with Mexico. Trump is showing strength in this Sun Belt State and is ahead by 2 points, in large part because of support from the state’s Hispanic voters. At his rallies in the state, Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris’ record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Joe Biden to try to ease the border crisis.
However, Democrats are banking that ballot measures codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies, before the issue of whether to add the right to an abortion to the state constitution landed on the ballot to be decided in November.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes,is a key component of the Democrats' clearest path to victory – which would be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Like in 2020, it has the potential to be a “tipping point” giving either candidate the edge. Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state. But it became a big-time battleground after Trump eked out a victory there in 2016.
The state is overwhelmingly white, and white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates. Notably, Harris garnered the endorsement of the local Teamsters union in Wisconsin despite national union representatives deciding not to back a candidate in the race and dispersed internal data showing a majority of members backed Trump.
But another important group is independent voters. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, the electorate is fairly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a notable independent population in between. These independent voters helped Trump win the state in 2016 and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.
The biggest issues in the state are the economy, crime, and abortion. As things stand now, neither candidate has a lead, with Harris ahead by less than one vote.
Last and with the least electoral weight, is Nevada. Harris currently leads – if you can call it that – by less than 1 percentage point in this Sun Belt swing state. That being said, it is tricky to predict because it has more registered independent voters than Democrats or Republicans. However, with just 6 electoral votes, it is much less likely to be decisive.
Once decidedly blue, the Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins since 2000. It is also the most diverse battleground state, and Harris has shrunk Trump’s lead since she took to the ticket.
Even though the US economy has shown strong growth and job creation since Biden took the presidency, the post-COVID recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere. At 5.1%, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Trump has been campaigning in the state to lower taxes and lessen regulations.
It’s war game time. Harris’ most obvious strategy is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But this would get her to exactly 270 votes, and only if she won all of the states Biden won in 2020. This is risky. Any misstep, even just losing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could lose her the presidency.
If she loses Pennsylvania, which she very well might, she’d need to pick up one of the two Sun Belt states and one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she still carries Michigan and Wisconsin. There’s also the chance she could repeat Biden’s 2020 victory, winning Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- though that would be quite a blowout.If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he could reach 270 by winning the two swing states where he is ahead the most, Georgia and Arizona, as well as Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan.
Trump’s easiest path to victory is blocking Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. To do this, Trump would need to exceed his 2020 performance in suburban counties. But like Harris, this strategy of winning exactly 270 leaves no room for error. All that we really know is that whoever wins Pennsylvania will be well on their way to winning the White House.
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., October 10, 2024.
Trump signals there will be no more debates
“THERE WILL BE NO REMATCH!”posted Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Truth Social on Thursday. Fox News, a conservative-friendly cable TV network, had offered to hostanother presidential debate in the days before the election, but Trump has made clear it’s not going to happen.
Though Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump’s opponent, will continue to challenge him by suggesting he’s afraid of her, Trump insists he doesn’t care and has debated enough this year. It may be a smart move on his part. He easily won the Republican Party’s presidential nomination without debating any of his rivals, and the latest polling (seehere andhere) suggests his fortunes in the crucial swing states may be improving.
Given the perception that Harris won their previous debate (seehere andhere), Trump may be calculating that the risk of a rematch is not worth the reward. That would also be consistent with Trump’s decision not to sit for an interview with the news program “60 Minutes.”
For now, Trump seems to have settled on a simple closing argument — that she will be just like Biden — based on another Harris interview. When asked on “The View” what she’d have done differently than Biden over the course of his presidency, she firstsaid, “There is not a thing that comes to mind.”
Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a campaign rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Aug. 3, 2024.
President Panic and the Grievance Ceiling
Has Donald Trump become President Panic and hit a grievance ceiling?
The confidence the world saw at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee after Trump survived a terrifying assassination attempt is suddenly gone. The rallying cry of “Fight, fight, fight!” has been replaced with “whine, whine, whine,” a transformation encapsulated in feverish social media posts Trump is sending from his baroque bunker in Mar-a-Lago.
Clearly caught off guard by Biden’s exit, the former president is struggling to find a way to frame Kamala Harris’ sudden surge in momentum. After Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate and held a series of massive rallies, Trump released what ranked as one of his most bizarre social media posts. (OK, it’s not on the RFK Jr. level of “After falconing with my pals, I picked a dead bear cub off the highway to skin it and eat it but instead decided to secretly dump it in Central Park and stage a fake crime scene by pretending the bear was killed by a cyclist,” but then, what is? Hold RFK’s animal cruelty beer, Gov. Kristi Noem!)
In any case, Trump just posted a panicky theory that Biden is going to fight Harris to reclaim the nomination. “What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE,” he wrote. “He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!”
Hard to decode any of this, but let’s try. Does Trump know anything about the inner workings of the Biden circle? No. Was Biden’s presidency “unconstitutionally stolen”? No. Biden is still president, and he decided — under great pressure to be sure — not to run again. Both Johnson and Truman did the same thing, so it can happen. It was not a “COUP,” as Trump later called it, though the irony was not lost on anyone that Trump is the one accused of trying to unconstitutionally steal an election and stage a coup on Jan. 6, 2021.
The post also descends into his usual litany of name-calling, from “crooked” for Biden and “shifty” for Schiff to “crazy” for Nancy Pelosi. He notably changed “Kamala” to “Kamabla” — and has done so a few times — which no one understands.
There does not seem to be a coherent Trump strategy yet to combat Harris or Walz, except for trying to find the juvenile name that sticks, à la Sleepy Joe. “Laughing Kamala” — is that a thing? Nope. Is laughter now a liability in America? No. Crazy Kamala? It’s a classic one — but doesn’t it already belong to Pelosi?
When the name-calling fails, there is always the fallback on race, a strategy Trump used against Barack Obama with the birther theory. At the National Association of Black Journalists convention last week, Trump alleged that Harris had recently “turned Black,” dismissing her biracial identity. This made no sense, especially since his running mate, JD Vance, has biracial children. But Trump has doubled down on it anyway, bundling it with calling Harris a “DEI hire,” even though her record in politics is much longer than either his own or Vance’s.
This week, Republican pollster Frank Luntz said that Harris is now the front-runner and blamed the turn of fortunes on Trump’s empty personal attacks. “He’s losing it with speeches that have the same sort of ad hominem attacks to a public that has had enough and wants to look for something different, something new,” he told Vinnews.
In any election, a candidate has a floor of support — the base that will never leave them which, in Trump’s case, is the MAGA crowd that makes up about 43%-48% of the voting population — and a ceiling, the place they need to grow to win over swing states like Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Nevada. A new survey conducted by Marquette Law School shows Harris leading Trump among likely voters by 50% to 42%, when third-party candidates are included, and by 47% to 41% with registered voters.
The goal is to recruit new voters, independents, suburban women, unions, the Black, Latino, Jewish, or Arab-American voters. It appears as if there may be a kind of “grievance ceiling” or an “anger ceiling” in US politics, and Trump might have just hit it.
Trump’s strategy of unhinged personal insults, race-baiting, grievance-fueled conspiracy theories, and self-pity might have made his floor the same as his ceiling, which is fatal for a campaign. How does he put new things on the menu to attract new customers if he keeps cooking with the same old sauce?
One of the things Harris and Walz have done remarkably well is find a tone that makes the Trump personal attacks seem old, out of touch, and ineffective. Walz in particular has owned the happy warrior role, dismissing the entire Trump campaign as “weird,” a deft response that allows Democrats to take Trump seriously without admitting that he’s actually serious about anything.
They smile, they laugh, and they appear unaffected by the personal attacks. But they are hitting back too, rejecting Michelle Obama's maxim: “When they go low, we go high.” Walz and surrogates like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro love fighting on the low ground and have taken to spicing up their speeches with the truffle sauce of four-letter profanity that lends the out-of-touch elitist Democrat image a folksy touch. “Hey, we can swear too,” they seem to say. Shapiro’s maxim of GSD or “Get Shit Done” is now a crowd chant. Democrats are fighting MAGA mud with their own mud, and they are enjoying it, which used to be Trump’s secret weapon.
Luntz’s point is that Trump needs to stop panicking and start talking about substance, policy, and record. Harris and Walz are vulnerable on lots of issues: the faltering economy, the porous border, and the bloody Middle East. But Trump can’t seem to focus on substantial issues long enough to make this stuff stick. That explains why he has become President Panic.
There are still over 90 days left in this volatile, wild campaign, so if there is one lesson, it’s that the past is not prologue. The election is still very much up for grabs. Harris and Walz have started strong, but it ain’t about the start. It’s about the finish. In politics, as in baseball, being the closer is a hard job that few can pull off. Is Harris a closer? Will she wilt under the barrage of Trump attacks — he will find a more coherent strategy — as so many others have? Will divisions inside her party over say the policy on Israel, Hamas, and Gaza undermine the Democrats’ momentum in key states like Michigan? And what about the economy and the stock market meltdown? That is the hard test ahead.
Harris and Walz are still popping corks at their sudden change of fortune, but elections can make a candidate’s bubbly go flat before the second sip. For now, however, they are watching President Panic hit the grievance ceiling, and they are drinking it up.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau holds a press conference on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York, U.S., September 21, 2023.
The Perils, Principles, and Polls of War
It was not their finest hour. But it was one of their latest.
After first insinuating that the tragic Oct. 17 bombing of the hospital parking lot in Gaza was an attack by Israel – a view promoted by Hamas – the Canadian government quickly backtracked. US intelligence had concluded that the rockets actually came from Gaza, so Canada announced it was conducting its own investigation.
Finally, on Oct. 21, four days after misinformation about the event had sparked global riots, Canada announced a new conclusion. “Analysis conducted independently by the Canadian Forces Intelligence Command indicates with a high degree of confidence that Israel did not strike the hospital ... the strike was caused by an errant rocket fired from Gaza.”
But timing, as they say, is everything. The announcement came from the defense minister at 9:51 p.m. On a Saturday night.
In politics, that’s called a late-night dump, or burying a story. Why the whimper on such a key moment? It is a story of polls, principles, and the perils of war. And it’s playing out everywhere.
The principle should be clear: Stick to facts. In a situation as polarizing and as divisive as the Israel-Hamas war, facts are the basic currency of trust, so this principle is more important than ever. Even today, with news hitting about Israel’s attack on the Jabalia refugee camp to target Hamas leaders, the facts matter. Were there Hamas commanders hiding there? How many civilians were killed? Is the camp a legal target? What is next in the ground war in Gaza? Israel has to be accountable to international law in their war against Hamas no matter how just it is, and those facts also must be called out fairly.
Now, facts without context lead to the perils of both-sidesism and the loss of a moral compass. Why attacks happen and what is justified are crucial questions – and therein lie the thorny politics. Choosing how to contextualize facts is subject to profound debate. For example, what is the baseline of any side to justify the level of action? Is it the Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7? Netanyahu’s controversial settlement policy? The 1948 establishment of Israel, which Hamas does not recognize? There are dozens of starting points that one side may choose to rationalize an action and support any long-term strategy. But at the very least, let’s unapologetically debate with the actual facts, not with disinformation and whispered corrections.
In this case, the issue was not the principle of facts, but the reality of polls. A recent Pallas Data poll revealed that 41% of Canadians disagreed with the statement “Canada should support Israel in its armed conflict against Hamas.” Only 38% agreed.
For Liberals, it is even more complicated. They are lagging behind the Conservatives, and in order to win the next election they need to steal votes from their left-wing political ally, the NDP. But only 22% of NDP voters say support for Israel’s fight is warranted. Liberals also need to hold on to French-speaking Quebec, where only 27% want Canada to support Israel’s fight. So, while Trudeau has been unequivocal in his views that Israel has every right to defend itself against Hamas — the Saturday night dump was a sign of the complexities at work.
As we covered in the GZERO Daily yesterday, US President Joe Biden has a similar issue. His support for Israel is significantly more robust, but that comes at a political cost, not only among Arab American voters in key swing states like Michiganbut internationally. As Israel’s strategy and long-term strategy in Gaza remains unclear and its war gets more deadly, Biden’s principles will be tested.
Let’s not be too naïve. Polls always drive politics, even in war – maybe especially so – but a leader’s job is to convince people that the principles driving their policies are right. A key component of leadership is to make polls follow principles, not the other way around. You gotta sell your ideas or you end up chasing polls, which is the political equivalent of chasing after the wind. That turns politics into the vanity of clinging to power for its own sake.
Trudeau came to power as a centrist with principles, one of which was combating climate change. What made him successful was that he had a clear way of addressing that issue: the controversial carbon tax. Having a defining issue has always been the challenge for the mushy middle – who, at their worst, try to be everything to everyone and end up being nothing to no one. Trudeau’s carbon tax helped to solve that, and whatever you think of it, he won three elections by defending the principle behind it. It kept his base together. Now that too is up for grabs.
Facing brutal polling numbers and heavy pressure from the Eastern provinces – a Liberal stronghold — Trudeau buckled. His government announced a carve-out in the carbon tax for anyone using heating oil. Guess what? The highest percentage of folks who use it are in Atlantic Canada.
Suddenly, Trudeau’s defining policy has been undermined. Every province now wants its own carve-out – those run by Conservatives, of course, because they always opposed the carbon tax, but now, even those run by the NDP, like Manitoba. It is quite a political feat to make the new NDP Premier of one province agree with the Conservative premiers of the others. As they have ALL pointed out, now people who use more efficient natural gas pay more tax than folks who use less efficient fuel to heat their homes. The core principle of polluter pays is upside down.
“It’s double political jeopardy,” pollster Nik Nanos told me. “He’s disappointing those that are focused on the economy and believe in the carbon tax and annoyed those who are against the tax – even with the climb down.”
“How can they not make more exceptions? Before there were many Canadians who didn’t like the government, but at least thought they were generally consistent. This undermines consistency and shows that slamming up against politics they will start to put water in their wine.”
When principles give way to the polls, there is nothing left but politics. That’s quicksand.
In the US, polls over principles are increasing the perils of war. The dysfunctional Republican Party has been incapable of coherent governance – just electing a speaker has been shambolic – because their principles are negotiable as long as Donald Trump remains high in the polls. If there is no agreement on basic facts, like the legitimacy of the last election, what are their core principles? How do they come together and support, say, funding for Ukraine or now, as we speak, for Israel? Everything is a political negotiation based on staying in power.
Right now, just getting the facts right makes holding principles more difficult. One of the strategic goals of Hamas’ terror is to normalize its annihilationist rhetoric around Israel and destroy any possibility of a two-state solution. It is also something that Israeli PM Netanyahu has spent years trying to undermine, which is why over 80% of Israelis blame him for the security failure and his party is polling at 20-year lows. In the long term, destroying the possibility of a two-state solution – the core principle for peace – is the ultimate casualty of war. It means there is no way out.
In any complicated, divisive issue — the war, climate change, etc. – leaders must listen to people, of course, but once they let polls obscure facts, they lose sight of principles. That is the test of leadership, and where their finest hours will be decided.
Fmr. U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on the day of his court appearance in New York after being indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. Photo taken in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., April 4, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Trump leads early, NPR & PBS quit Twitter, stopgap for Darien, global warming juices baseballs
49.3: FiveThirtyEight launched its national polling averages for the 2024 Republican presidential race this week, and Donald Trump leads the pack with 49.3% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails well behind with 26.2%, while fmr. VP Mike Pence and fmr. UN ambassador Nikki Haley are at 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Research finds that national polls done a year ahead of the election can reasonably predict the nominee.
2: NPR will stop posting on Twitter, becoming the first major outlet to ditch the bluebird since the platform began labeling news orgs that receive government funding as “state-affiliated media.” That designation is normally applied to outlets in autocratic countries that allow no editorial independence. Twitter CEO Elon Musk recently told the BBC (another “state-affiliated” media outlet) that he may change the label to “publicly funded.” PBS followed NPR's lead on Wednesday, so two major US media outlets have now said "bye-bye birdie."
88,000: The US, Panama, and Colombia are launching a two-month campaign to stem the northward flow of migrants across the perilous Darien Gap, which spans the Colombian-Panamanian border. Since January, more than 88,000 people have braved the crossing, over six times the number from the same period last year.
1: Did the Sports Almanac account for this? A recent study analyzing the past six decades of baseball and temperature data finds that thinner air from global warming accounted for 1% of home runs from 2010-2019. The number is expected to jump to 10% by 2100 – though the data is inconclusive on whether this can help the Mets.
Support for Moon hits record low amid prosecutor clash
SEOUL • South Korean President Moon Jae-in's support rate hit a record low as turmoil over the fate of the country's top prosecutor rocked his government, in a worrisome sign as he enters the latter stages of his administration.
Support for New Zealand's Ardern drops in latest poll but coalition still seen winning
WELLINGTON (REUTERS) - New Zealand's ruling Labour Party will need help from coalition partners to form a government after an Oct17 general election, the latest opinion polls showed on Monday (Sept 28), after it was previously on course to govern alone.