Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' face appears as a video plays on a screen, during a rally at Huntington Place in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election
The US election will likely be decided in the seven highly competitive swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Within these, there are various combinations that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could secure to make it to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all the states that solidly and likely lean their way, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Here’s a roadmap of each candidate’s route through the swing states to the White House, and the key voters and issues in each state, in order of their number of electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state because it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, and it's hard to imagine either candidate winning the White House without it. According to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Pennsylvania historically trended slightly blue, but in recent years the state has purpled — with a divided state House and a series of razor-thin margins in general elections. That was until the 2022 governor’s race in which Democrat Josh Shapiro won by almost fifteen points against a Trump-backed Republican, and his approval ratings in the state remain strong.
When it comes to the issues and key demographics, Pennsylvania is a microcosm of America. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to newer industries, and agriculture is still the state’s second largest industry. It also has a massive energy sector – where fracking is and the green energy transition are major issues.
Demographically, the majority of the population is white, but the immigrant population is increasing. Twelve percent of the population is black, just under the national total of 13%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean blue, and the vast rural stretches between them are dominated by Republicans.
Harris currently leads by less than 1 point, meaning it’s a dead tie. In 2020, Joe Biden only won the state by 1.2 points.
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and after years of Republican dominance, the state’s diversifying population gave Biden his closest win in 2020, at just 0.2 points, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state in nearly three decades.
It has also been the site of a battle over whether votes would be hand-counted on election night, but a judge struck down the proposal this week, ruling it would be too disruptive.
Just under half of the Peach State’s population is non-white. Thirty-three percent of the population is Black, and both candidates are vying to win their vote. Strong Black voter turnout – key to Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020 – was credited in large portion to the efforts of Stacey Abrams, who is also campaigning on Harris’ behalf this election. But Trump is trying to win those voters to his side by focusing on his economic policies, illegal immigration, and inflation.
Harris is also campaigning heavily on the state’s abortion restrictions, in recognition that women, who comprise 51% of Georgia’s population, could also play a crucial role in winning the state.
As of now, the state is leaning back toward its Republican roots. Trump is ahead there by two points.
North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes,has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 2012. But right now, the state is a toss-up, with Trump ahead by less than one point.
Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just 70,000 votes, which has buoyed Democrats' hopes that this “purple” state could be winnable this year. The state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Harris is trying to boost recovery efforts while Trump has criticized and spread misinformation about FEMA not doing enough – or even being completely corrupt. He is also campaigning on illegal immigration and the economy.
Next up is Michigan, which has 15 electoral college votes, and because it has the largest proportion of Arab Americans, it has become the epicenter of a nationwide backlash over Biden’s support for Israel's war in Gaza. During the Democratic primary in the state, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots to push the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.
Most of these voters realize a Trump administration would be even more supportive of Israel. But they feel unrecognized by the DNC, especially after the party decided not to have a pro-Palestine speaker at the DNC. As a result, the appeal of voting third-party, or not at all, is growing in the Great Lakes State.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is the focal point of the nation’s immigration debate thanks to its 372-mile-long border with Mexico. Trump is showing strength in this Sun Belt State and is ahead by 2 points, in large part because of support from the state’s Hispanic voters. At his rallies in the state, Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris’ record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Joe Biden to try to ease the border crisis.
However, Democrats are banking that ballot measures codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies, before the issue of whether to add the right to an abortion to the state constitution landed on the ballot to be decided in November.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes,is a key component of the Democrats' clearest path to victory – which would be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Like in 2020, it has the potential to be a “tipping point” giving either candidate the edge. Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state. But it became a big-time battleground after Trump eked out a victory there in 2016.
The state is overwhelmingly white, and white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates. Notably, Harris garnered the endorsement of the local Teamsters union in Wisconsin despite national union representatives deciding not to back a candidate in the race and dispersed internal data showing a majority of members backed Trump.
But another important group is independent voters. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, the electorate is fairly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a notable independent population in between. These independent voters helped Trump win the state in 2016 and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.
The biggest issues in the state are the economy, crime, and abortion. As things stand now, neither candidate has a lead, with Harris ahead by less than one vote.
Last and with the least electoral weight, is Nevada. ThisSun Belt swing state is tricky to predict because it has more registered independent voters than Democrats or Republicans, but Harris currently leads – if you can call it that – by less than 1 percentage point. However, with just 6 electoral votes, it is much less likely to be decisive.
Once decidedly blue, the Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins since 2000. It is also the most diverse battleground state, and Harris has shrunk Trump’s lead since she took to the ticket.
Even though the US economy has shown strong growth and job creation since Biden took the presidency, the post-COVID recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere. At 5.1%, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Trump has been campaigning in the state to lower taxes and lessen regulations.
It’s war game time. Harris’ most obvious strategy is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But this would get her to exactly 270 votes if she won all of the non-swing states Biden won in 2020. That means she would be highly vulnerable because any misstep, even just losing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could lose her the presidency.
If she loses Pennsylvania, she’d still need to pick up one of the two Sun Belt states as well as one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she carries Michigan and Wisconsin. There’s also the chance she will repeat Biden’s 2020 victory, winning Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.
Trump’s easiest path to victory is blocking Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. To do this, Trump would need to build on his 2020 performance in suburban counties. But like Harris, this strategy of winning exactly 270 leaves no room for error. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he could reach 270 by winning the two swing states where he is ahead the most, Georgia and Arizona, as well as Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan.
Joe Biden starts to campaign on AI
On May 8, Joe Biden spoke at Gateway Technical College in Racine, Wisconsin. The president was bragging.
Six years after his predecessor, Donald Trump, visited the same city to boast of Taiwanese tech company Foxconn’s $10 billion plan to bring a LCD manufacturing plant to Racine — that never materialized — Biden chose the same site for a new high-tech manufacturing project of his own. Microsoft will invest $3.3 billion to build a new data center to support artificial intelligence, a project that the company says will bring 2,000 permanent jobs and 2,300 union construction jobs to Wisconsin.
It’s good business, and better politics. Wisconsin is an important swing state for Biden in his forthcoming election against Trump. This latest announcement seemed to mark a moment where Biden accepted that AI is going to be an important part of his presidential legacy — and that it’s a record he should run on.
Right place, right time
OpenAI ushered in the generative AI revolution with ChatGPT midway through Biden’s first term. Silicon Valley rushed to develop it, Wall Street rushed to fund it, and governments around the world rushed to regulate it. Biden was in just the right position to reap the political rewards.
The US hasn’t passed comprehensive regulation to rein in AI, lagging behind its European counterparts in that regard, because it would require Congressional action. Instead, Biden secured voluntary commitments from the top AI companies to reduce the risks of their technology and issued a sweeping executive order dictating that every federal agency and department needs to assess and mitigate the risks AI poses, and how they can safely use it.
Beyond that, AI has become a focus of Biden’s industrial policy and export control measures, both of which have major implications for foreign policy and national security. Microsoft's investment also comes mere weeks after the Biden administration helped orchestrate the PC giant’s $1.5 billion investment in the Emirati tech giant G42, which pledged to restrict ties with China in favor of working with US tech firms.
Federal dollars pour into AI
The Microsoft data center was one in a series of chest-pounding announcements from the Biden administration, which has used funds from the CHIPS and Science Act to incentivize tech infrastructure firms to build in the United States. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will get $6.6 billion to invest a total of $65 billion to expand its chip fabrication complex in Phoenix, Arizona. Samsung will get $6.4 billion to pour $45 billion into its Texas facilities, and Intel will be granted $8.5 billion to construct and expand facilities in Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico, and Oregon.
AI wasn’t necessarily top of mind when the CHIPS Act passed in 2022, said Scott Bade, a senior analyst in Eurasia Group’s geo-technology practice, but it’s become the focus of the government’s efforts to nationalize chips and data centers.
“If you look at the political motivations for the Chips Act, a big part of that was the auto industry not having access to chips during the pandemic,” Bade said. Most of those were so-called legacy chips, not the high-powered graphics processors needed for AI, but the investments and legislation was already in place by the time AI became the hot topic in consumer and military tech.
The US has an advantage over rival China when it comes to artificial intelligence technology, but also the chips and chip-making facilities necessary to train and run powerful AI applications. Not only are many of the most important AI chipmakers — such as Nvidia, AMD, and Intel — American firms, but important non-US infrastructure firms are subject to US export controls because they rely on small parts made in America. The Biden administration has ramped up export controls to give the US an economic and technological advantage over China. And don’t forget the military side — global powers are looking to AI to super-charge their weaponry.
The election looms
AI lets Biden make some important claims in his rematch against Trump, including:
- American companies are leading the world on AI
- Multinational firms are investing in US facilities
- They’re bringing high-tech manufacturing jobs to the US
- And the US is keeping China at bay in the AI space
Not all of those arguments will resonate in retail politics, but Arizona and Wisconsin, where new facilities are popping up, are key swing states looking for good union jobs. In Wisconsin especially, Biden will make the case that he’s delivering what Trump couldn’t.
“The fact that you have a fab in a major swing state that helped him win last time and also has an important Senate race — that's not a coincidence,” Bade noted.
Speaking in Wisconsin, Biden barely mentioned technology, let alone artificial intelligence. Instead, he focused on delivering where Trump could not.
“During the previous administration, my predecessor made promises, which he broke more than kept, left a lot of people behind in communities like Racine,” Biden said.
Artificial intelligence might not be the snazziest talking point for retail politics, but it’s bound to be a major undercurrent — even when it’s not mentioned explicitly.
General view of the Imperial Oil refinery located near Enbridge's Line 5 pipeline in Sarnia, Ontario.
Wisconsin to decide fate of Line 5 pipeline
What does Canada's energy security have to do with the US state of Wisconsin?
On Thursday, Wisconsin's Supreme Court will rule on the possible shutdown of Line 5, a vital pipeline that has been carrying oil and natural gas from eastern to western Canada since 1953. This is related to a years-long dispute between the owner, Alberta-based Enbridge, and the Bad River Chippewa Indians, a federally recognized tribe of the Ojibwe people on the US side of Lake Superior.
Parts of where the pipeline intersects with the river have been washed away by floods in recent years, putting the delicate ecological balance of the wetlands at risk. Enbridge has agreed to reroute Line 5, but last week more flooding prompted the tribe to demand the pipeline be closed off immediately to avert a natural disaster.
Although both Americans and Canadians would be impacted by a shutdown, Canada would be much worse off because there are no alternatives to Line 5 for shipping fossil fuels between Ontario and Quebec.
(Full disclosure: Enbridge was one of the sponsors at the Eurasia Group/BMO US-Canada Summit in April in Toronto.)
What We’re Watching: Wisconsin riots turn deadly, COVID-19 spreads in Gaza, Xinjiang (still) on lockdown
Chaos and anti-racism riots in Wisconsin: A white teenager was arrested Wednesday on murder charges a day after killing at least one of two people shot dead amid street protests over the police shooting of an unarmed Black man in the US city of Kenosha, Wisconsin. Also on Wednesday, the NBA postponed several playoff basketball games after players for the Milwaukee Bucks, Wisconsin's home team, went on strike to protest racial injustice. Although the exact details are still unclear, the two killings occurred after a group of armed civilians — which police described as vigilante militia groups — clashed with protesters once police had cleared the area to enforce a curfew. The protests were sparked by the case of 29-year-old Jacob Blake, who has been left paralyzed after being shot seven times in the back by a white police officer on Sunday. We're watching to see if the protests and riots spread to other parts of the country as was the case back in June, when the killing of George Floyd (also a Black man) by a white police officer in Minneapolis ushered in a wave of mass rallies calling for a national reckoning on racial justice and police brutality, including proposals to reform the police itself in many US cities (and around the world, too). The unrest in Kenosha also takes place as the US presidential election campaign ramps up — President Trump will likely push his tough law-and-order approach to dealing with violent protesters to draw a contrast with his opponent Joe Biden, whom Trump wants to portray as soft on crime.
Coronavirus in Gaza: The Gaza Strip has been placed under lockdown for 48-hours after community transmission of COVID-19 was detected there for the first time. Until now, all known cases in Gaza were linked to quarantine facilities where travelers returning from abroad were required to remain in isolation for 21 days. But these new cases — and one death —were all linked to a family living in the al-Maghazi refugee camp with no known travel record. To date, blockades and restrictions on movement imposed by Israel have spared the impoverished Strip, run by the militant group Hamas, from widespread infection. Gaza, home to over 2 million people, hosts some of the most densely populated refugee camps in the world, where social distancing is impossible. Coupled with a crippled healthcare system, poor sanitation and regular power outages, a deadly outbreak of disease in the enclave would be catastrophic, health experts warn.
China keeps Xinjiang locked down: Residents of China's northwestern Xinjiang region are fed up with the draconian measures that authorities have continued to impose to stop the spread of the coronavirus, despite the fact that the region has not registered a positive case for more than a week. After several COVID-19 outbreaks were reported there in late July, Beijing ordered a sweeping lockdown in Xinjiang, with harsh restrictions such as punishing violators by handcuffing them to their homes or forcing ethnic Uighur residents — who have long been victims of human rights violations by the Chinese government — to take traditional Chinese medicine to ward off the coronavirus. What's more, the strict stay-at-home order remains in place despite the fact that the region has not registered a positive case for more than a week. Xinjiang residents can't take it anymore, and have gone to social media to vent their frustration. Although the lockdown is roughly similar to the one China imposed in Wuhan to contain the first outbreak of COVID-19 back in February, its duration and severity have prompted concerns that Beijing is being too harsh on its anti-coronavirus strategy in Xinjiang, where community services are not as developed as Wuhan's, so people banned from going outside to buy food are often left hungry in their own homes.