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Ian Explains: How to Avoid World War III | GZERO World

How to avoid World War III

On May 9, Vladimir Putin marked Russia's Victory Day in World War II by ... celebrating the invasion of Ukraine.

Putin has co-opted triumph against the Nazis to justify his aggression by claiming a delusional Nazi threat in Ukraine to justify the war. But this is nothing new.

Indeed, former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb says Russia never really moved on from World War II, relying on the narrative that "the rest of the world is out to get us" to drum up patriotic sentiment.

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Grading the US Response to Ukraine | GZERO World

Grading the US response to Ukraine

Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, is satisfied overall with how America has responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine so far — with a couple of caveats.

First, the Biden administration needs to ratchet up sanctions so they don't pile up like parking tickets. And by that he means going after positions, not individuals, as well as offering a way a way to get off the list.

Also, the goal of the sanctions should be to stop the war, not hurt Russia beyond that, McFaul tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Third, the US should definitely share intelligence with Ukraine — but keep it under wraps.

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US Ban on Russian Oil Imports Could Make NATO Alliance Look Weaker | World In :60 | GZERO Media

US ban on Russian oil imports not coordinated with NATO allies

What are the ramifications of the US ban on Russian oil imports? Are there any surprises on Russia's released list of unfriendly countries? Also, is President Xi facing a hard wartime choice for China? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

First of all, what are the ramifications of the US ban on Russian oil imports?

A couple of things. First of all, the United States doesn't really get much oil at all from Russia. Oil product is a different story. Interesting to see where exactly that lands but it's definitely a significant message from the United States. Last week, the Americans weren't planning on that but given a lot of domestic pressure, including from Congress, the Biden administration decided to move on it. One problem I see is that this was not well coordinated with the Europeans, almost every other message so far in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been incredibly strong coordination between the Americans and the NATO allies. That is not the case here. And I think that is a challenge. The Europeans are not going to be willing or able to go nearly as far as the Americans because they have a hell of a lot more to lose and that potentially makes the NATO alliance look a little bit weaker on this issue. They're going to need to communicate well on it.

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US Taking Notice of EU's Tech Laws that Could Impact US Tech Companies | Cyber In :60 | GZERO Media

US pushes back on EU's proposed laws impacting US tech companies

Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center, Eurasia Group senior advisor and former MEP, discusses trends in big tech, privacy protection and cyberspace:

What are the EU's digital gatekeeper rules, and why does the US want them changed?

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Biden Administration's COVID Response Likely to Impact Midterms | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Biden administration's COVID response likely to impact midterms

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, discusses the Biden administration's response to the omicron variant:

How is the Biden administration's response to omicron?

Well, it hasn't been great. It started with the travel ban from affected countries that was already probably behind the curve given how widespread the variant was and the administration admitted they did not see this new variant coming. They were caught flat-footed on the surge in demand for testing over the holidays. And while they first promised to make tests reimbursable by insurance, which is, of course, a real pleasure for Americans who love to deal with their insurance companies, they then said they were going to make 500 million tests available for free, but this isn't even enough to have two tests for every American. And news came out that they were instead of investing in increased manufacturing capacity, what they were doing was going to purchase surplus tests, which could exacerbate private sector shortages. But probably, more importantly, it means that the new free tests were going to arrive probably after the current surge in cases is over.

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Record US Inflation Levels Worsen Americans’ View of the Economy | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Record US inflation levels worsen Americans' view of the economy

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at rising US inflation, the migrant crisis at the Poland-Belarus border, and the draft deal of the COP26 climate agreement.

US inflation hits its highest level in three decades. How will the Biden administration be impacted?

Well, it's not well. I mean, the economy is doing very well right now. We're getting all of these record levels in the markets. And companies have extraordinary profits, and growth is going gangbusters. So it's not stagflation. But I mean, the inflation levels on top of the fact that it's Christmas season coming up, and people are exhausted from dealing with COVID, is making people feel much worse about the economy otherwise would. I don't think we've ever seen this kind of a gap between economic reality and expectations and Biden's ability to do a lot on inflation is very limited at this point. I mean, he's pushing OPEC to produce more energy, which is a problem with the COP summit, but at the end of the day, I mean, this has a lot more to do with the massive explosion of post-COVID supply and demand growth, and all coming online at the same time. Plus labor shortages. It's not something that's easy for them to deal with. So I think it's going to be a challenge for them for months, but elections aren't for a year so the timing is not so horrible.

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What We're Watching: Israel finally gets a budget, US expands vax mandate, Portugal elections loom

Israel's political breakthrough. Israel's government has passed a budget for the first time in more than three years. This might sound boring, but it's actually a big deal: for years, former PM Benjamin Netanyahu refused to do it for political reasons, resulting in a lengthy stalemate with four divisive elections in just two years. Getting it done is a big win for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who managed to get his ideologically-diverse coalition of eight parties to agree on the 2021 budget. Failure to pass it by November 14, as per the coalition deal, would have resulted in yet another election, likely a death knell for the current government which only came together this summer at the eleventh hour. The bill includes $10 billion for Arab communities over five years demanded by Mansour Abbas, head of Ra'am, an independent Arab party that serves in the coalition. For now, Bennett and his main partner, the centrist Yair Lapid, are proving wrong the naysayers who warned that the diverse coalition was doomed to collapse. Negotiations now continue over next year's budget ahead of the March 2022 deadline, but passing the 2021 budget has made a fresh vote — and Netanyahu's dream of returning to power — even less likely.

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Jess Frampton

Africa’s vaccine cloning gamble

Less than a year after the world started putting COVID vaccines into people's arms, most regions have immunized at least half their populations, but Africa still lags behind. With industrialized nations hoarding jabs and the COVAX facility faltering, barely five percent of the African population is fully vaccinated.

Some enterprising South African scientists are now making a bold bid to change that, with an experiment that could benefit not only Africa's 54 nations and billion people, but the entire world: Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines, a Cape Town-based startup, has developed a plan to reverse-engineer Moderna's mRNA shot and manufacture it for priority distribution on the continent.

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