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People are carrying a banner with political phrases during a rally in support of Nicolas Maduro's campaign in San Cristobal, Venezuela, on July 10, 2024.
Viewpoint: How far will Venezuela’s leader go to retain power?
As Venezuelans prepare to head for the polls on July 28, President Nicolas Maduro is pulling out all the stops to secure a third term in office and extend the Chavismo political movement’s 25-year grip on power. Chosen by the movement’s founder Hugo Chavez to succeed him as president, Maduro first won election in 2013 and has grown steadily more authoritarian.
Though Maduro pledged the coming election would be free and fair under the terms of the Norway-brokered “Barbados Agreement,” he has already reneged on some of its key terms. The agreement represents the latest in a series of attempts by the US and Latin American and European countries to encourage greater democratic opening in Venezuela.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targow what to expect from this weekend’s vote.
Do you think Maduro will do whatever it takes to ensure he remains in office?
It’s pretty clear at this point that Maduro is going to hold this election on his own terms. We’ve seen him bar the participation of the winner of the opposition primary, Maria Corina Machado, and her chosen successor, Corina Yoris. He has also taken steps to limit both credible electoral observation, including that of the EU, and voting by opposition supporters such as Venezuelans living abroad. All of these moves represent a violation of the Barbados Agreement.
On election day, I think the regime is hoping it can rely on various measures to suppress opposition voter turnout and mobilize its own base so that it doesn’t have to resort to ballot tampering to win. But I do think it is willing to do whatever it takes. I don’t think Maduro is going anywhere.
Would an opposition candidate likely win a fair election, and if so, why?
Yes, absolutely. What we’re seeing from credible polls is that Edmundo Gonzalez, the new unified opposition candidate, has an advantage of between 20 and 30 percentage points over Maduro. Maduro has been in power for 11 years and has overseen a substantial deterioration of economic conditions, the result of government mismanagement exacerbated by US sanctions aimed at forcing democratic reforms. Though conditions are finally stabilizing, multiple years of deep economic contraction have triggered massive migration outflows. About 7 million Venezuelans are living abroad today.
What’s more, this is the first presidential election since 2013 that the main opposition forces are all participating and backing a single candidate, which is one of the reasons Gonzalez is polling so well.
What is the likelihood of protests or violence around the election?
I think some level of violence or instability related to the vote could manifest in two ways, and I would say that both of them are somewhat likely. The first would be violence on election day as part of a repertoire of measures to discourage support for the opposition that includes moving polling stations from opposition strongholds or blocking their entrances and deploying the so-called colectivos (regime-affiliated criminal groups) to attack voters.
The second is the potential for unrest after the election, assuming that Maduro claims victory. There’s been a groundswell of support for the opposition, and its voters would probably feel like the election had been stolen. That said, recent polls suggest that voter appetite to take to the streets has waned, probably because of the regime’s violent repression of previous anti-government protests.
How do you think the international community is likely to react if Maduro wins what appears to be a fraudulent election?
This would be a difficult situation for the US, the EU, and some of Maduro’s key allies in the region such as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro. These regional leaders were trying to welcome Maduro back into the fold after the failed Juan Guaido experiment [the former head of Venezuela’s National Assembly claimed in 2019 to be the country’s legitimate president – and won recognition from many countries around the world – but then failed to consolidate his domestic support]. I would be surprised if they fully abandon Maduro and break off ties with him again.
The EU likewise has a bias toward normalization, though its electoral observation mission was uninvited by the regime, and if there is a lot of fraud, it will be forced to condemn the results. In the US, President Joe Biden’s administration also prefers normalization and engagement but will take its cues from how the opposition characterizes the elections. Regardless, I don’t see the US, at least under the Biden administration, going back to what they called the “maximum pressure” sanctions regime that we had in place up until September 2022.
What do you think the continuance of the Maduro regime means for the quality of life in Venezuela?
As I mentioned, the economic situation has stabilized somewhat over the last couple of years. Ironically, in response to the US sanctions, Maduro has become much more pragmatic in terms of economic policy. He has allowed for a dollarization of the economy and stopped printing money, so inflation has really come down. Still, there is a deep divide between those who have access to dollars and can afford to pay for imported goods and those who don’t. So, it’s no longer the case that the shelves in stores are empty, but you have to have the money to pay for them.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro looks on during his swearing-in ceremony as caretaker president following the death of President Hugo Chavez in Caracas March 8, 2013.
Hard Numbers: Venezuelan opposition arrests, Bangkok’s murder mystery, Acropolis closed amid heat wave, More Kenyan police arrive in Haiti, Voting day for von der Leyen
102: Ahead of presidential elections set for July 28, Venezuelan authorities have arrested at least 102 people linked to the political opposition this year, according to Foro Penal, a local legal aid non-profit. Three-quarters of them were jailed after the official presidential campaign period began on July 4. On Wednesday, police arrested the security chief of opposition leader Marina Corina Machado. Polls show strongman President Nicolas Madurotrailing badly ahead of the vote.
6: Authorities said Wednesday that traces of cyanide were found in the blood of six Vietnamese nationals, two of whom had dual US citizenship, in a luxury suite of a Grand Hyatt in Bangkok. The group was last seen alive on Monday by a waiter delivering room service. Police say there was a possible financial motive related to an investment … and that the suspected perpetrator is among the six dead.
5: Greece’s most-visited archaeological site, the Acropolis, was closed for five hours by the Ministry of Culture on Wednesday amid a brutal southern European heat wave. Wildfires, meanwhile, are proving difficult to contain amid the extreme heat and led to the closure of a major border crossing between Greece and North Macedonia for several hours on Wednesday.
200: Another 200 Kenyan police officers joined the UN-backed mission in Haiti this week to support local authorities against the violent gangs who took over the capital city of Port-au-Prince in a joint offensive last February. The Kenyan-led mission also expects new arrivals from Jamaica, Bangladesh, Chad, and others to help grow the force to 2,500 personnel in the coming weeks.
361: In the EU parliament later today, MEPs will decide whether to confirm Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president in a knife-edge vote that will either result in another five-year mandate for the EU executive’s first female leader or tip the bloc into a temporary crisis. Despite no other candidate standing, it looks like she will just barely, if at all, get the 361 votes she needs.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, his wife Cilia Flores, and Vice President of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela Diosdado Cabello participate in a rally during May Day celebrations in Caracas, Venezuela, on May 1, 2024.
Is Venezuela’s election going to be too lopsided to steal?
Until about two weeks ago, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro looked like he’d managed to sideline the opposition enough to ensure a win in this summer’s presidential election.
His government had disqualified the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado. Then, for good measure, it banned her stand-in as well. The familiar specter of division and disorganization hung over the beleaguered opponents of Maduro, who has run Venezuela for more than a decade.
Then the opposition united to name the little-known, 74-year-old former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as their candidate. González has delegated most of his campaigning to Machado, and his popularity has soared. A poll over the weekend showed he already holds a 40-point lead over Maduro, with 62% of respondents saying they’d vote for him.
The government has already recognized him as a candidate, tarring him as an agent of “imperialism” – but that presents a problem. By moving against him, Maduro could overplay his hand in a country already reeling from economic mismanagement and US sanctions. But facing Gonzalez directly might leave Maduro vulnerable to the one thing a strongman can’t accept: losing.
Chilean presidential candidate Jose Antonio Kast from far-right Republican Party meets with supporters during a campaign rally in the outskirts of Santiago, ahead of the first round of presidential elections on November 21, Chile, October 25, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Elections in Chile & Venezuela, Modi blinks, Chinese buffet ban
An extreme choice for Chilean president. Chileans go to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the presidential election. The two frontrunners are former lawmaker José Antonio Kast, a rightwinger who pines for Augusto Pinochet, and former student leader Gabriel Boric, who's moderated his positions from his more far-left days but still wants to spend big on social programs. Kast, who's benefited from rising anti-migrant sentiment, is currently leading in the polls, while Boric hasn't been able to campaign for two weeks after getting COVID. Still, Kast probably won't get 50 percent of the vote, meaning that things will go to a December runoff in which Boric is projected to have a slight edge. Just months ago, Chileans elected a largely left-leaning assembly to rewrite the Pinochet-era constitution following mass protests over rising inequality in late 2019. The next president will want to have a say in that process.
Venezuelan opposition, welcome back to elections. Also on Sunday, Venezuelans will vote to elect governors, mayors, and local officials across the country. More importantly, for the first time since 2017 they'll see opposition party names on the ballot. Since then, opponents of strongman Nicolás Maduro have boycotted elections that they saw as rigged against them, opting instead for street protests and external support to oust the regime. But with Maduro still in power, external help waning, and talks with the government on the rocks, the opposition is now slouching back to the ballot box. EU observers will be on hand to ensure that the vote is fair, but Maduro allies are likely to do well across the board. The fragmented opposition will be vying to hold four key governorships of its own, and is looking for promising pockets of support ahead of presidential elections set for 2024.
Modi's farm laws U-turn. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suddenly announced on Friday he'll repeal three controversial agriculture laws that farmers had been protesting for more than a year. The laws sought to deregulate the agriculture sector in order to attract more investment and broaden opportunities, but small farmers worried that would leave them at the mercy of massive agriculture conglomerates. For months, tens of thousands of farmers have descended on the capital, blocking roads and even breaching the landmark Red Fort. The cause went global, with foreign celebrities weighing in on the farmers' side — much to the chagrin of Modi's government. After a long stalemate between the government and farmers' unions, Modi appears to have blinked. Our former colleague Akhil Bery tweeted: "This is a very substantial defeat for a PM who hasn't seen many."