Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), President of the European Commission, stands in the plenary chamber of the European Parliament and speaks while Vikor Orban (Fidesz), Prime Minister of Hungary, can be seen in the background.
Von der Leyen lays into Orbán over Russia
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyenhad strong words on Wednesday for Hungary’s strongman, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, about his close relationship with Russia. After listing a fiery litany of grievances over Hungary’s democratic backsliding and undermining of EU support for Ukraine, she addressed Orbán directly. “There are still some who blame this war not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom, so I want to ask them: Would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion in 1956?”
The powerful rhetoric aimed at painful memories of Soviet tanks crushing freedom fighters in Budapest’s burning streets. Orbán, who had just delivered a relatively meek address about his plans for Hungary’s six-month EU presidency, denied von der Leyen’s accusation and denounced her for using the EU executive as a “political weapon.” Some left-wing MEPs sang the anti-fascist anthem “Bella Ciao,” prompting the parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, to remind them “this is not Eurovision.”
Why did the gloves come off? Von der Leyen and her team of 26 commissioners are going before Parliament for confirmation hearings between Nov. 4 and 12. Parliament has taken von der Leyen to task in recent weeks for playing softball with Hungary and is preparing to sue the commission over its decision to unlock billions in frozen funds for Hungary last year. Taking Orbán to task might just be what she needs to smooth things over before the hearings.
We’re watching how her message plays, and whether Orbán might change his tune toward Russia — but we’re not holding our breath.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pays tribute to the 309 victims of the earthquake that struck, in L'Aquila, Italy, on 5 April 2009.
No, Meloni is probably not going rogue
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has accused EU leadership of falling prey to fake news after they issued a report highlighting press freedom issues in the country. The spat comes a week after Meloni abstained from voting for Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission and instructed members of her Brothers of Italy party to vote against von der Leyen’s confirmation.
The two moments of tension have many wondering: Is a storm brewing in Brussels?
Probably not, according to Eurasia Group’s Europe Managing Director Mujtaba Rahman, who believes “the narrative of a fundamental split between Meloni and von der Leyen, Rome and Brussels, is being overdone.”
“Meloni has little to gain from a split, and von der Leyen also wants to avoid confrontation,” he adds.
Over the past two years, Meloni has forged better-than-expected ties with EU leadership, especially after von der Leyen backed the Italian leader’s tough approach to migration and agreed to change some of the original spending plans for Italy’s €200 billion share of EU recovery funds ahead of her reelection.
“Meloni’s abstention was tactical,” says Rahman. “Her strategic — and far more important decision — was to not join the new far-right grouping in the European Parliament.” The group, led by Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen, was blocked from holding the top jobs in any committees, despite being the third largest group in parliament.
FILE PHOTO: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attend a European Union leaders' summit in Brussels, Belgium, June 27, 2024.
Austrian, Hungarian, and Czech far-right form new EU coalition
What is this, a Hapsburg revival? Right-wingers from the political core of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire announced Sunday they would form a new Russia-leaning alliance in the EU parliament. Austria’s Freedom Party, Hungary’s Fidesz, and the Czech Republic’s Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, aka ANO, have committed, but the “Patriots of Europe” alliance needs at least one MP from four other EU member states to become an official faction, which they seem confident of obtaining.
The move draws a clear cleavage in the far-right camp between pro- and anti-Ukraine parties on Europe’s far right. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has forged a pragmatic path to electability by leaning heavily into support for Ukraine and the EU while insisting on hardline immigration policies. It’s paid off for her, but her approaches – and meteoric rise – haven’t sat well with some of the Euroskeptic, Russia-friendly old guard. This new alliance is their play for greater relevance in Brussels, to avoid being overshadowed by Meloni’s new kids on the populist bloc.
What we’re watching: Does Alternative for Germany, recently expelled from Marine Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy faction, join them? AfD won 16% of the vote in Germany during this month’s EU Parliament elections, and their allegiance would elevate Patriots for Europe. That said, the far right is already divided between Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy and Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists. Slicing off another piece only helps centrists like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sleep a little easier.Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomes European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at Chigi Palace, in Rome, Italy, January 9, 2023.
Unlikely allies: Von der Leyen and Meloni's potential partnership
As the dust settles from last weekend’s EU Parliament elections, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is holding all the cards, and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is preparing to kiss the ring.
The EU undeniably shifted right in the election, with support for Meloni’s right-wing coalition climbing to more than 47%. Meanwhile, for von der Leyen, the center held — but barely. Her coalition of mainstream parties won a narrow 400-seat majority, but with many threatening to defect, so she will need to pull votes from Meloni’s camp to secure the 361 votes she needs to win a second term as commission president on July 18. For Meloni, supporting von der Leyen could further cement her influence in Brussels.
These women aren’t diametrically opposed. While Meloni's party traces its roots back to a neo-fascist group, and her 2022 victory set the tone for far-right gains across Europe, she’s moderated her position on the international stage and dropped her previous anti-EU rhetoric. She is also a fervent Ukraine supporter, which could make her a key bridge to the far right for von der Leyen, who announced on Tuesday that the EU will send €1.4 billion to Ukraine and that it will begin accession talks this summer.
Meloni is gearing up to host the G7 meeting on Thursday, and Ukraine will top the agenda. We will be watching to see whether she and von der Leyen team up on securing more aid, which could signal a deepening partnership in parliament to come.
European Union flags are seen outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels April 12, 2006.
How the EU Parliament elections work
We broke down how voters across the European Union’s 27 member states cast their ballots in European Parliament elections this weekend, but how exactly do these elections work, and why should you care?
The European Parliament is where the European Union writes bloc-wide laws. Members of the European Parliament, or MEPs, selected in this year’s election will determine Europe’s approach to everything from the war in Ukraine and immigration to the green energy transition for the next five years.
The basics: Each country is allocated a fixed number of seats proportional to its population, like the US House of Representatives. The number of MEPs ranges from six for the smallest countries, like Luxembourg or Malta, to 96 for Germany, totaling 720. Explaining the process is a bit daunting: Each country may hammer out just how it fills the seats allotted to it. Some use a closed party list, wherein voters don’t choose a particular candidate per se, while others allow voters more control, and Malta uses a single transferable vote system.
Once that is all sorted, national parties then organize themselves to form supranational political coalitions based on ideology, not nationality. There are seven right now, ranging from Identity & Democracy on the far right to Renew Europe and the European People’s Party in the center to The Left on – yep – the left.
What to watch: The far right did well, as we explained elsewhere, but their division into two rival supranational blocs will limit their cohesion. Plus, the centrist European People’s Party bloc remains the largest in Parliament, and it looks able to keep incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calling the shots in Brussels.