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FREIBERG, GERMANY - DECEMBER 10: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (not pictured) speak to the media following talks over lithium mining on December 10, 2024 in Freiberg, Germany. Germany and Serbia will be cooperating in the sustainable mining of lithium, a critical substance for the production of batteries for electric cars. A company called Zinnwald Lithium GmbH intends to mine up to 15,000 tons of lithium annually in the region of Saxony near Freiberg, enough to build one million electric car batteries. Serbia also has extensive lithium deposits.
Serbian president name-checks Assad, vows not to flee amid protests
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Tuesday said he would not flee in the face of demonstrations against his administration. “If they think I’m Assad, and that I’ll run away somewhere, I will not,” he said. Comparing oneself to the brutal Syrian ex-strongman wasn’t great PR – though in fairness, no one is accusing Vučić of gassing children or torturing civilians like Assad – and many Serbians are protesting persistent corruption in Belgrade.
The most recent wave of unrest started with a roof collapse at a train station that killed 15 people in the city of Novi Sad on Nov. 1. Opposition leaders seized on the tragedy to accuse Vučić’s ruling coalition of nepotism and graft that led to corners being cut on public construction projects, leaving them dangerously shoddy. The station in Novi Sad had been renovated as part of a wide deal with Chinese state companies to upgrade Serbian infrastructure.
Every Friday, protesters now blockade streets in Belgrade, Novi Sad, and other major cities, some holding signs accusing Vučić of corruption and portraying him with blood on his hands, and thousands turned out to mark the one-month anniversary of the collapse. Police have fired tear gas at demonstrators, and pro-government groups have attempted to escalate peaceful protests.
Will Vučić stick to his word? Probably. He’s weathered prolonged popular unrest before, including just last year. More than five months of demonstrations following a series of mass shootings managed to push out a few underlings, but not Vučić. We’re watching for a sacrificial lamb.
A demonstrator holds a flag as people block the Centre Railway Station during a protest against Rio Tinto's lithium mining project, in Belgrade, Serbia, August 10, 2024.
Serbia’s lithium mine: Green gold or toxic threat?
On Saturday, the US State Department denied it supported anti-government protests in Serbia centered on a proposed lithium mine in Serbiathat sparked widespread protests last week, which opposition figures called to continue. As Serbian farmers, environmentalists, and citizens fight to protect the scenic Jadar valley, it has also become a proxy battleground for Washington, Berlin, Moscow, and Beijing.
The Jadar Valley is a lush farming area rich in lithium ore, essential for electric vehicle batteries. Rio Tinto’s $2.4 billion mining and refining project there couldprovide as much as nine-tenths of Europe’s current lithium needs, enough foran estimated 1 million EV batteries a year.
Last month, Serbiareinstated approval for the project, which had been withdrawn in 2022 following anti-government protests. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic insisted that strict environmental safety protocols will be put in place, but opponents claim the project will destroy farmland and contaminate groundwater.
US and German officials support the mine as part of Europe’s green transition, and to curb dependence on China, currently the main source of the processed form of the mineral. And while Serbia is currently cozy with both China and Russia, the mine would further integrate the country’s economy with that of Europe and the US.
This, together with revelations that Serbia is a key supplier of munitions to Ukraine, has spawned speculation that the protests are the work of pro-Russia factions, eager to keep Belgrade in Moscow’s orbit. Meanwhile, Vucic claims they are led by “anarchists, Marxists, and hidden fascists” and said last week that Moscow warned him of a brewing coup. We’ll be watching whether more Serbs take to the streets in the coming days — and whether interest in the project falls along with EV sales.
Ukraine's capture of POWs undermines Russia's narrative
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How might Ukraine's capture of Russian prisoners of war affect the narrative of the war?
I don't think it's going to have any immediate effect on the narrative of the war. The big shift in the narrative is, of course, that while the Russian Putin has been saying that Ukraine is about to lose this particular war week by week, day by day, village by village, that's been turned around and very much the outcome of the war is now more open, where Ukraine has demonstrated a substantial offensive capability as well. That's the change.
How do the lithium protests in Serbia reflect the wider tensions in the country?
Well, they certainly do. I mean, first it has to be said with large-scale mining project, there are always environmental concerns and there have been other mining projects in Serbia, Chinese with the Bor copper mine, where that has not been the case. So there are concerns. That being said, the protests are also fueled by the fact that there is substantial democracy and transparency deficit in Serbia. So under other circumstances, this would've been a more normal environmental concern protest. Now it's a much wider issue, reflecting tensions in Serbia's society.
Soccer Football - Euro 2024 - Group C - Serbia v England - Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen, Germany - June 16, 2024 Serbia fans inside the stadium before the match
The beautiful game can sometimes be ugly
The European Championship, aka the Euros, has been underway for just one week, but it’s already turning political. Serbia wants UEFA, soccer’s European governing body, to whip out a red card for Croatia and Albania over allegations their fans shouted anti-Serbian slurs during a match on Wednesday.
“Kill, kill, kill the Serb,” the fans allegedly chanted. It’s fair to say that Serbia felt this was extremely offside — and the country is threatening to quit the competition if action isn’t taken.
All of this reflects the long-running tensions in the Balkans linked to the 1990s Yugoslav Wars.
“What happened is scandalous,” said Jovan Surbatovic, general secretary of the Football Association of Serbia. “If UEFA doesn’t punish them, we will think about how to proceed.”
Relatedly, UEFA on Wednesday canceled the credentials of a Kosovar journalist for allegedly making a nationalist gesture toward Serbian fans during Sunday’s Serbia vs. England match. Serbian and Albanian fans also scored own goals of sorts by displaying nationalist banners at games, leading to fines from UEFA.
China's President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan disembark at Orly Airport, south of Paris, on May 5, 2024.
Xi goes on (short) European tour
This week marks President Xi Jinping’s first trip to Europe in five years. The Chinese leader will only visit France, Serbia, and Hungary – three countries where he’s likely to find the friendliest ears – and meet with EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade tensions and China’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine.
Xi, who landed in Paris on Sunday, will also have a tete-a-tete with Emanuel Macron for the second time in as many years. You’ll remember that the French president raised continental eyebrows last year with a state visit to Beijing, where he declared that Europe should not be drawn into a standoff between China and the US over Taiwan. Macron’s independent foreign policy approach left a positive impression on Beijing.
This time, the French leader is looking beyond tensions in the Taiwan Strait. He told The Economist that it’s “in our interest to get China to weigh in on the stability of the international order.” Xi seemed to agree, issuing a statement that Sino-French relations “have established a model for the international community of peaceful coexistence.”
The two will discuss trade and security, with France wanting increased access to the Chinese market for its agricultural exports and protection for intellectual property rights for the French cosmetic industry. Macron will reiterate that China should stop exporting dual-use goods that power Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But we’re not holding our breath for any positive signals on that since the Chinese leader will then visit Hungary and Serbia, two countries with close ties to Russia. Xi’s visit to Serbia will focus on deepening trade relations – and it happens to coincide with the 25th anniversary week of NATO’s fatal bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. In Hungary, Xi wants to cement his relationship with autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has stymied EU efforts to hold China to account on human rights issues.Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during an interview with Reuters in Belgrade, Serbia, September 28, 2023.
Kosovo and Serbia to restart talks
Well, even as one of the world’s most intractable conflicts gets steadily worse, there’s at least a chance that another will get slightly better. This Saturday, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo will meet with US and EU officials to try to revive peace talks.
It will be the first time the two have met since tensions spiked last month due to a deadly shootout between Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo and local Kosovar police officers. Kosovo accused Serbia of plotting the attack, while Belgrade briefly mobilized its troops to the border before backing down under US pressure.
Background: Albanian-majority Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, after a decade of war and Serbian attempts at ethnic cleansing. Serbia, which considers Kosovo part of its ancestral heartland, doesn’t recognize the Kosovar government – nor do ethnic Serb communities living in northern Kosovo.
The talks will aim to revive an EU-brokered peace framework that envisions de facto recognition of Kosovo in exchange for Kosovo giving broad autonomy to Serbs in the north.
There is a strong incentive to make progress: The EU will soon begin meetings on enlarging the union. Serbia and Kosovo both want in, but Brussels has been clear that it can’t happen until they make peace.
For more on the “dangerous limbo” of Serbia-Kosovo relations, see our explainer here.
FILE PHOTO: Kosovo police officers patrol, in the aftermath of a shooting incident, in Banjska village, Kosovo September 27, 2023.
Is Serbia really about to do something extreme in Kosovo?
Things are getting hot again between Serbia and Kosovo. The US and NATO have both sounded the alarm after a recent gun battle between Kosovo police and Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo left several people dead, prompting what the White House called an “unprecedented” buildup of Serbian troops along the Kosovo border.
The background, briefly: In 2008, after nearly 20 years of conflict, majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, with US backing. But many ethnic Serbs who still live in Northern Kosovo reject the legitimacy of the Kosovar government, which Serbia itself has never recognized. The outlines of a Serbia-Kosovo agreement call for Kosovo to grant autonomy to ethnic Serb areas. Clashes have periodically erupted over local elections and even license plates.
Is a wider war coming? Kosovo says Serbia is poised to invade Kosovo in what would be an eerie echo of Azerbaijan’s shock move against Nagorno-Karabakh last week — i.e., a long-running ethnic dispute in which the stronger party makes a move while the EU and US are distracted by Ukraine. And yet, over the weekend, Belgrade drew down its forces along the border after getting an earful from both Brussels and Washington.
That’s because Serbia has another interest at stake too. It still wants to see progress on its decade-old EU accession bid when the Union meets to discuss enlargement this winter. Although Serbian views on membership are split, and Belgrade’s cozy Russia ties are a further complication, President Alexander Vučić knows that invading Kosovo would be suicidal for any EU hopes.
But there’s a catch there too: Neither Serbia nor Kosovo — which has also applied to join — has any hope of getting into the EU until they resolve their own conflict first, a prospect that does not look promising at the moment.
Kosovo-Serbia tensions worsen, hurting EU membership hopes
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Stockholm.
Are Serbia and Kosovo heading towards a confrontation?
It looks very bad. What happened in northern Kosovo the other day was distinctly bad. A collection of fairly well-armed and well-organized Serb thugs did an operation that was eventually beaten back by Kosovo police. It follows a cycle of escalation that was initiated on the Kosovo side, has to be said, last year, and has not been brought under control by rather intense diplomacy, both by the Europeans and by the Americans. At the moment, things look very bleak. This, of course, is damaging the EU integration prospects for both Serbia and Kosovo. Let's see what happens.
How can the EU react to what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Well, it was a very blatant military operation by the Azeris that sort of captured, de facto destroyed the autonomous functions of Nagorno-Karabakh. And it has encouraged, or forced, however you want to phrase it, practically all of the Armenians to evacuate in the direction of Armenia. It’s a huge political and humanitarian tragedy. How we can respond remains to be seen at the moment. It's very much a question of trying to alleviate the horrible humanitarian consequences.