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Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during an interview with Reuters in Belgrade, Serbia, September 28, 2023.
Kosovo and Serbia to restart talks
Well, even as one of the world’s most intractable conflicts gets steadily worse, there’s at least a chance that another will get slightly better. This Saturday, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo will meet with US and EU officials to try to revive peace talks.
It will be the first time the two have met since tensions spiked last month due to a deadly shootout between Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo and local Kosovar police officers. Kosovo accused Serbia of plotting the attack, while Belgrade briefly mobilized its troops to the border before backing down under US pressure.
Background: Albanian-majority Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008, after a decade of war and Serbian attempts at ethnic cleansing. Serbia, which considers Kosovo part of its ancestral heartland, doesn’t recognize the Kosovar government – nor do ethnic Serb communities living in northern Kosovo.
The talks will aim to revive an EU-brokered peace framework that envisions de facto recognition of Kosovo in exchange for Kosovo giving broad autonomy to Serbs in the north.
There is a strong incentive to make progress: The EU will soon begin meetings on enlarging the union. Serbia and Kosovo both want in, but Brussels has been clear that it can’t happen until they make peace.
For more on the “dangerous limbo” of Serbia-Kosovo relations, see our explainer here.
FILE PHOTO: Kosovo police officers patrol, in the aftermath of a shooting incident, in Banjska village, Kosovo September 27, 2023.
Is Serbia really about to do something extreme in Kosovo?
Things are getting hot again between Serbia and Kosovo. The US and NATO have both sounded the alarm after a recent gun battle between Kosovo police and Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo left several people dead, prompting what the White House called an “unprecedented” buildup of Serbian troops along the Kosovo border.
The background, briefly: In 2008, after nearly 20 years of conflict, majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, with US backing. But many ethnic Serbs who still live in Northern Kosovo reject the legitimacy of the Kosovar government, which Serbia itself has never recognized. The outlines of a Serbia-Kosovo agreement call for Kosovo to grant autonomy to ethnic Serb areas. Clashes have periodically erupted over local elections and even license plates.
Is a wider war coming? Kosovo says Serbia is poised to invade Kosovo in what would be an eerie echo of Azerbaijan’s shock move against Nagorno-Karabakh last week — i.e., a long-running ethnic dispute in which the stronger party makes a move while the EU and US are distracted by Ukraine. And yet, over the weekend, Belgrade drew down its forces along the border after getting an earful from both Brussels and Washington.
That’s because Serbia has another interest at stake too. It still wants to see progress on its decade-old EU accession bid when the Union meets to discuss enlargement this winter. Although Serbian views on membership are split, and Belgrade’s cozy Russia ties are a further complication, President Alexander Vučić knows that invading Kosovo would be suicidal for any EU hopes.
But there’s a catch there too: Neither Serbia nor Kosovo — which has also applied to join — has any hope of getting into the EU until they resolve their own conflict first, a prospect that does not look promising at the moment.
Kosovo-Serbia tensions worsen, hurting EU membership hopes
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Stockholm.
Are Serbia and Kosovo heading towards a confrontation?
It looks very bad. What happened in northern Kosovo the other day was distinctly bad. A collection of fairly well-armed and well-organized Serb thugs did an operation that was eventually beaten back by Kosovo police. It follows a cycle of escalation that was initiated on the Kosovo side, has to be said, last year, and has not been brought under control by rather intense diplomacy, both by the Europeans and by the Americans. At the moment, things look very bleak. This, of course, is damaging the EU integration prospects for both Serbia and Kosovo. Let's see what happens.
How can the EU react to what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Well, it was a very blatant military operation by the Azeris that sort of captured, de facto destroyed the autonomous functions of Nagorno-Karabakh. And it has encouraged, or forced, however you want to phrase it, practically all of the Armenians to evacuate in the direction of Armenia. It’s a huge political and humanitarian tragedy. How we can respond remains to be seen at the moment. It's very much a question of trying to alleviate the horrible humanitarian consequences.
Police officers patrol in the aftermath of a shooting, at the road to Banjska village, Kosovo September 24, 2023.
Trouble brews in the Balkans
Is Europe’s tinderbox once again set to explode?
Tensions are running high in Kosovo after three people were killed in a gun battle in a monastery in Leposavic, near the Serbian border. About thirty armed men stormed the building following a battle with police at a road blockade near the village of Banska, in which one officer was killed. Police managed to regain control of the monastery, arrested 6 gunmen, and found "an “extraordinarily large amount of weaponry and ammunition, explosives.”
According to Prime Minister Albin Kurti, police were attacked by "professionals, with military and police background" and police said they had used "an arsenal of firearms, including hand grenades and shoulder-fired missiles.” Kurti blamed "Serbia-sponsored criminals" for the attack. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucicspoke later on Sunday, condemned the attack but accused the Kosovo authorities of “brutal” treatment of the Kosovo Serbs.
Violence has been escalating following the Kosovo government’s decision to install ethnic Albanian mayors in four Serb-majority municipalities in May. Demonstrations ensued, including one in which thirty NATO peacekeepers were injured.
This latest incident comes one week after EU-mediated talks designed to normalize relations between Serbia and its former province ended in stalemate. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, a decade after a bloody war with Serbia that claimed 10,000 lives, but Belgrade has since refused to recognize the country.
As a means of cooling the temperature, Brussels warned both countries that unless they put their differences aside and abide by the EU’s ten-point plan to end the latest round of tensions, they will not be allowed entry into the EU. If what happened this weekend is any indication, however, that goal is still a long way off.Leo Varadkar, Ana Brnabić, Edgars Rinkēvičs, Xavier Bettel
Current world leaders who are openly LGBTQ+
As of June 2023, it's still rare for a head of government to be openly LGBTQ+. Here are the four leaders currently in office or elected to the top job.
Edgars Rinkēvičs
Edgars Rinkēvičs.
NATO
Country: Latvia
Position: President-elect
Edgars Rinkēvičs was the first government official to come out in Latvia, tweeting in 2014, "I proudly announce I am gay ... Good luck all of you." When he takes office in July, he will be the first openly gay president in the Baltic nations.
Xavier Bettel
Xavier Bettel
Country: Luxembourg
Position: Prime Minister
Xavier Bettel, Luxembourg's PM since 2013, has said, “Being gay is not a choice, but not accepting it is a choice. Homophobia is a choice, and we have to fight against it!” He married his civil partner in 2015, becoming the first serving leader in the European Union to wed someone of the same sex.
Leo Varadkar
Leo Varadkar
Country: Ireland
Position: Taoiseach (Prime Minister)
Leo Varadkar took office in June 2017, two years after he came out as gay prior to Ireland's referendum legalizing same-sex marriage. He is the first openly gay Irish PM. “I feel privileged to be gay in Ireland. We should not forget that only 30 of the 190 countries in the world have marriage equality. In 70 countries, it’s still criminalized,” says Varadkhar.
Ana Brnabić
Ana Brnabić
Country: Serbia
Position: Prime Minister
When Ana Brnabić took office in June 2017, she became not only Serbia's first gay prime minister but also its first female PM. “Serbia is changing and changing fast, and if you will, I am part of that change, but I do not want to be branded ‘Serbia’s gay PM’. The message we need to send is about competence, professionalism, and trustworthiness,” Brnabić said.
Russian tactical nukes in Belarus avoids direct escalation
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Trump arraigned, again. What's next?
I guess what's next is more cases. I mean, at the end of the day, I still think that the January 6th case, as well as the efforts to overturn the election outcome in Georgia are substantively more serious, at least in terms of what they will mean for people that do or don't decide to vote for Trump in a general election, assuming he gets the nomination, than how he mishandled classified documents and then lied to people around it. Especially because he doesn't really have a motive, aside from the fact that he's a child and thinks that he should have access to these documents. But I mean, the key point here is that we've got a justice overseeing the case that was appointed by Trump and will certainly be very, very favorable towards every delay the Trump lawyers want. So this is going to make lots of headlines, but is not going to move until after the nomination, probably not until after election. So again, it's a crazy thing to say, but he's more likely to get the nomination on the back of all this news than not.
Why is Russia planting tactical nukes in Belarus?
Well, I mean, it is one thing that they can do that implies symbolic pressure on the Ukrainians and on NATO and doesn't take significant direct escalatory steps that would threaten Russia. In other words, Putin understands that by making that move, he's dangerous, but he's not forcing NATO to do anything in response. Also, keep in mind, NATO's been escalating quite significantly over the past months, irrespective of Russia right now. I think that the Belarus issue is kind of a canard, it's not one of the serious headlines here. More serious is the dam getting blown up. More serious are F-16s eventually coming to the Ukrainians. More serious is how this counteroffensive goes and how much land the Ukrainians can take back. We'll watch that closely.
Is Serbia taking over sports?
I don't know. I mean, I thought Norway was for the beginning of the week, last week, especially when Ruud looked like he was going to take that first set at the French Open, but no, no. Now, with Jokić and Djokovic, it's true. It's got two big Serbs, and they're both very big Serbs. There's no question. I wouldn't say the Serbs are taking over sports, I'd say, "Congrats for a couple of big wins." I watched the French Open. It was cool to watch. And congratulations for someone who's been, politically, a little crazy, but plays tennis like nobody's business. I'm willing to differentiate those two things.
Nervous mood in Russia after drone strikes
Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics (this week from Stockholm).
Will recent drone attacks in Moscow lead to Russian escalation in Ukraine?
I think there's nervousness in Moscow. The drone attacks have been, Putin was trying to play down. He couldn't do very much else. He said our defenses are working, but nothing was perfect. I think there's also nervousness on what might happen on the battlefront. What are Ukrainians up to? Will there be some sort of success in some sort of Ukrainian offensive? A nervous mood, we don't know. The inclination of Putin is always to escalate whenever he can.
Are Serbia-Kosovo relations deteriorating into another conflict?
Well, we are not heading to a new war, but we are clearly heading towards, or we are in a fairly rapid deterioration of the situation. There was a breakthrough in negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo a couple of months ago in Ohrid. It was difficult to move forward on that. It was difficult to move forward also on the measures that needs to be taken on the ground, but that it was moves taken primarily by Pristina that led to the clash that we've seen in northern Kosovo. And now the situation is deteriorating fairly rapidly. NATO's deploying additional forces, but it will require some fairly robust diplomacy to get things back to track. Let's hope for the best but be prepared for something else.
Protesters against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's plan to reform the electoral authority, in Mexico City, Mexico, February 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Mexicans protest AMLO changes, North Korea seeks grain, Iran hearts Ipanema, a controversial kiss from Kosovo
500,000 or 90,000?: How many people in Mexico City took part in recent mass protests against President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s overhaul of the electoral system? Organizers say 500,000 turned out to oppose the changes, which would weaken independent election oversight. But authorities in Mexico City, which is controlled by AMLO’s party, say it was only 90,000.
1 million: North Korea is estimated to be short at least 1 million tons of grain right now because of mismanagement and pandemic-related interruptions of imports from China. That’s equal to about one-fifth of the Hermit Kingdom’s annual consumption. In the past, North Korea has suffered famines so bad that people were forced to eat grass and tree bark.
2: Brazil’s government allowed two Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend, despite demands from the US to turn them away. The move is a reminder that although Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Joe Biden may see eye to eye on a lot, Lula’s perspective — in line with much of the Global South — often differs from Washington’s on key issues such as China, Iran, and Ukraine.
3: The young Kosovo artist Ermira Murati has gotten thousands of threats over her striking, 3-meter tall painting of Kosovo PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic kissing. The two leaders, who famously despise each other, are meeting early this week in Brussels to try to reach a peace deal. Here’s our recent piece on why that’s so hard to do. And, while we’re kissing in the former Eastern bloc, here’s one of the greatest smooches of the 20th century.