The message is clear: Russia and China stand together, and recent pressure on Beijing to rethink the partnership hasn’t worked. Not that anyone believed US and EU requests to limit the export of goods Russia might use in Ukraine went anywhere but the circular file.
Peek under the hood of the Putin-Xi partnership, however, and you’ll see the gears could use some grease. For instance, Putin would like Xi to commit to the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help him deal with Western sanctions. Xi has historically been less enthusiastic about the project (he’s already getting Russian gas at a steep discount, after all).
There’s also North Korea, which has grown considerably closer to Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine. China isn’t thrilled to see Russia butting in on what it considers its sphere of influence but has taken a soft approach thus far. In January, Putin accepted an invitation from Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to visit, and we’re watching for a stop in Pyongyang, which would likely tweak Xi. Even if it doesn’t happen this time around, Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says “it's highly likely that Putin will visit North Korea by the end of 2024.”
